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The Melbourne Tigers are too underrated in this match. They had a chance to surprise the 36ers in the first game, but came up short. They already showed great progress in the second match, especially on defense. Although Anstey criticized his players for poor performance in the paing, the Tigers did a great job defending the three point shots while themselves doing very well from distance. Apart from a big morale boost, one more factor favors the away team. Namely, Ervin's suspension deprived the 36ers of their starting point guard and best player on the team. Apart from scoring double digit figures on offense, Ervin was excellent on defense as well, which will make him practically impossible to replace. Goulding on the other hand is in incredible form, so Ervin's absence will open more room for Tomilson, and him as well. The away team have a big psychological advantage and can parry the 36ers in every segment of the game. When we add Ervin's injury to that, it's clear the Tigers are much closer to victory than the odds suggest.