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Gremio and Atletico-MG have done similarly in 2014. They both got through the group stage at Libertadores, and they're both down after the first leg round of 16 games. Also, they both lost the finals of the regional championships to their bitter city rivals. Actually, Atletico-MG were not defeated because they played 0-0 against Cruzeiro both games, but Cruzeiro won the title because they did better in the regulation season. Gremio were defeated to Inter in both games, having conceded 6 goals in the final games.
We could find more similarities, but more importantly for this bet, they have different approaches for this game. Gremio are on a three-game losing run, they will not play with the best line up, and that's enough to not consider them as favorites for the win. Atletico will play with their best team, they have a new coach, and the effect that might create cannot be neglected. The players themselves said they were confused with the last coach and by his methods. That was obvious from their struggle with efficiency despite the great offense potential that is Ronadinho, Tardelli, Fernandinho, and Jôu. On the other hand, at least the defense are tough, they conceded only one goal in the last 5 games. Gremio didn't managed to score a single goal against them in their last five head to head games, and haven't won since 2010.
Gremio's line up will consist of only 2-3 usual starting line up players, while Atletico plan to play with the best possible line up. Even if they combine 1,70 for x2, it would be good odds sine they played most part of the last season with the second choice team which is better than Gremio's, and the best one deserves equal odds here.