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Slovakia was once a hockey giant, but that is no longer the case. They are better than Italy, but not as much as the bookmakers suggest, I think. Especially now when half of the team is sick, three forwards are confined to their beds, and will almost definitely not play today. It seems like there's a bigger possibility for someone else to miss the game, than for those three to recover enough to play. They know that in case they lose, they could get knocked out from this Division, and I think they will not take the risk today. Even if the situation was ideal, they don't have the power in offense that could guarantee an easy win. I think the slower pace will suit them, and the Italians as well. Slovakia beat the opponent by more than 2 goals only once in the last 24 games. The Norwegians the other day were one of those two teams. Slovakia got lucky in the final moment and scored an empty-netter. The Italians didn't have good competition here, which makes their stats less relevant, but they have quite a good defense, and don't concede many goals. The option that Slovakia will score less than 4.5 goals is even better, but I will opt for handicap because it's easier to find that option. Slovaks will be happy with any kind of win, and I don't believe the Italian can just fall apart. Their defeat to Canada yesterday is completely irrelevant for this meeting.