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I don't understand why Barceloneta are regarded as such strong favorites. They have no real competitions in Spain, and they wouldn't even reach the Final Six if not for their privileged status in the first place. Regardless of the fact they finished as the third-placed team, the question is whether Jug would have reached that spot if they knew they would go into the Final Six if the take that spot. Realistically speaking, they had a good start of the season until other teams got into the form and they got a few surprises at home (wins against Jug and Primorje, and a point against Pro Recco). As the season wore on, their performances waned. Olympiacos beat them twice, Recco and Primorje crushed them. Brescia have been doing well throughout the entire season. They have lost only 5 serious games - 3 against Recco, and 2 against Radnički, but they also managed to beat that Recco on two occasions. This is a much closer game than the odds suggest as Brescia have only lost 3 games by more than 1 goal (Recco tice and Radnički away), while the only team that Barceloneta have managed to beat by more than 1 goal in 10 games of CL was Eger from Hungary. In addition, Barceloneta are no playing at home, which makes their home pool advantage even smaller. I think going for Brescia over 7.5 goals for this stake is also a good idea.