betprepare.com

Domination worthy of The Dream Team

Croatia are the best team of the tournament in points, points allowed, rebounds, assists, steals and second only in blocks. That level of domination is usually seen only with American "dream teams".

Poland started the tournament with a win against Belgium, as expected, but underperformed against Italy and Latvia in far more important matches. This is why they are advancing to the second round without carrying over points and with slim prospects of getting to the quarterfinal, mostly because the opponents they'll meet now are far stronger than the ones in the first stage, making Poland the underdog in all their second round matches.

That status is particularly clear today against Croatia, where they haven't got the slightest chance to win, and where it might even be smarter to focus on the upcoming matches. The key problem for Poland will be the inner area and the battle for rebounds. Poland have a physically great team, with excellent rebounding potential, and are currently the third best in the tournament in that segment.

This is what helped them hold on in the group, as they beat all their opponents in rebounding, but they were still close to defeat in all three matches. Now they are facing a game where they cannot rely on rebounding, as they will get no boards against Bender, Žižić and Arapović. Once you take away their only strength, the Polish team are left with turnovers, the segment where they're second worst here, with 20+ lost balls per game.

Croatia are playing extremely aggressive defense with full court pressing, and that could spell disaster for Poland today. They cannot get rebounds, they'll hardly be able to hold on to the ball against Croatia's defense, and the only question is how big of a lead will be enough for Nazor's team in this match.

Judging from the first stage matches, the Croatians are not hitting the brakes at all. All three opponents, including strong teams such as France and Lithuania, were totally demolished by Croatia, sending a clear message that they are the top favorite of this tournament, and that they can only lose if they beat themselves, which has been known to happen earlier to this generation.

However, here even that seems impossible. Croatia are the best team of the tournament in points, points allowed, rebounds, assists, steals and second only in blocks. That level of domination is usually seen only with American "dream teams".

What seems most impressive about this Croatian team is that one cannot tell where the biggest threat is. The dedicated point guard of the team, Mazalin, averaged only 6 points so far, which shows the potential reserve they have.

If one manages to stop Arapović, Bender will score. If they stop Bender, Božić will score. Regardless of who misses, Žižić is taking the offensive rebound. Slavica is running counterattacks, Filipović is making shots from the perimeter. If Mazalin flashes, this could become an exhibition game.

Winning today would secure Croatia the quarterfinal, and one can expect that to happen, as the quality difference is huge. If this remains a serious game, and with Ante Nazor that is also to be expected, the end score will include a very large lead.

The logic behind this is very simple. Croatia have a generation the quality of which has not been seen in years, and the result is rarely seen domination. +41 against England, +33 against Lithuania, and +17 against France, with the last two of those teams being very respectable and major favorites to win against Poland. The Polish team played a close game against Belgium, and lost to Latvia and Italy, teams Croatia beat with half an effort. Leaving all that aside, two things are the key to this match. Firstly, the rebounding strength that helped Poland against all their opponents so far but could only go so far, will be taken away from them today. Against this Croatian lineup they will be powerless in the pain, as Arapović, Bender and Žižić will dominate and take away the only strong suit Poland have. The other important segment is the extremely aggressive defense Croatia are playing, with full court pressing for a big part of the match which usually results in a lot of turnovers for their opponents. Poland are the weakest in the guard department, where they're missing their first point guard and shooting guard, and are leading the tournament in turnovers due to that. Croatia will destroy them with heaps of steals, which will in turn give them numerous counterattacks that should cover this handicap by halftime, and only build up their lead later, in my opinion even up to +30 points.