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Other than the advantage of the home pitch, Pacos have nothing else going for them in this game. The home pitch didn't help them much against Benfica in the past since the visitors won the last 9 games here and 19 out of the last 20 head-to-head games. The only draw the played was the Cup second leg game after Benfica won the first one convincingly. In each of those 19 wins, Benfica scored at least 2 goals because Pacos often score as well. Regarless of whether Benfica will actually need two goals to win today, that option seems to be the best one at this game even though you can go with -1 and the slightly more risky win at the visitors + 2.5 over (Marathon, 2.34). Pacos have conceded at least one goal in each of their championship game since September, while Benfica scored in each. Pacos have been conceding more goals lately, while Benfica started scoring more and according to the stats, Pacos always conceded while Befica always scored as many goals as necessary for this bet in the championship. If Benfica can beat Porto 2-0, Maritimo 4-0 and more defense-oriented teams like Moreirense and Academica, Pacos' poor defense won't be able to stop them. Pacos can't count on defender Rafael, while Benfica's top scorer Talisco is back after missing the League Cup game with a suspension.