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The war in Elbasan can see Albania qualify for Euro

Incredibly tough security for the Albania-Serbia game, which could see the home team qualify for Euro, while the visitors play for pride only

There has never been such extreme security for a football game before, but this one between Albania and Serbia simply requires it. Their last meeting got suspended after a drone was flown in carrying an Albanian flag, thus getting the rivalry to its max. It is not actually so much a rivalry as it is pure hate between the two nations due to Kosovo claiming independence from Serbia. 

The hostility between nations started over hundred years ago and will not end any time soon because there is never peace in the Balkans. The Albanian media claim that one third of the spectators could in fact be police officers, more of them undercover than in uniform. No suspicious person with any kind of even potentially dangerous objects will be able to nowhere near the stadium. 

Serbian national team bus was stoned in Tirana yesterday. No one was injured and the visitors said that in case of another incident like that they will not play this game.

Albania have a historical chance to qualify for their first major tournament and wouldn't want fan riots to ruin their plans. Even though they have to wait and see what will happen in the Portugal-Denmark game, a win for Albania would most likely see them grab an automatic qualification for France. Even if that doesn't happen tonight, Albania have one last game in Armenia to play, while this one tonight is the last one for the Danes.

Serbia have lost every chance of qualifying a long time ago because of, among other thing, that suspended game in Belgrade that saw them get stripped of three points. It is obvious that Serbia's players will do their absolute best tonight, regardless of the fact they cannot qualify for Euro. It will be like a war for them and they'll do everything to mess with Albania's plans.

Albania recorded their only defeat in this qualifying cycle to Portugal home last round. Veloso scored in injury time for Portugal's win. Albania play the Italian-style game because an Italian is in charge of the national team. His first concern is to now allow the opponent to score and then his team can try and score. That was the tactics Albania went with in all of the games, meaning we can expect a similar game plan today, even though a bit more risk on their part wouldn't be a surprise today.

If Denmark lose in Portugal Albania will need just one point to basically secure a qualification (will need a point in Albania in the last round).

- It's important for my players to be focused and careful in this game. Serbia are the team with greatest technical skill in the group and this is the key qualifier for us. We are one step away from our goal. We need to be calm and intelligent for this game - Albania's coach Gianni De Biasi said. He cannot count only on defender Mavraj.

- I don't want to go back in the past, I'm focused on the next match only. I am not afraid of Serbia but do respect their players. I talked to Cana and Kukeli and we'll make sure they are fit to play. I do have to say that those who are in best form will be in the lineup - De Biasi said. Alban Meha, who is great at set-pieces, will most likely start in midfield. 

- Only the final score matters for us in this match. We have to avoid bad situation and take advantage of their shortcomings. Everyone is saying that this is the match of the century for Albania but every game is the most important one for me as a coach. Our goal is to qualify for Euro and we're close to reaching that goal. There is always a chance for us to slip. We have to be focused and play our best game so far - Albania's coach said. The fact they have the Armenia game for making amends if this one doesn't turn out great should lift at least some of the massive amount of pressure off of their players's chest. 

Unlike Albania, Serbia are to play for pride that has nothing to do with football but football is the means through which they can get it. 

Coach Curcic and his players are very open about not being happy with the insane atmosphere surrounding this game. They say that they have to fear for their lives in Albania but at the same time talk about patriotism that will put extra charge in this already extremely charged game. 

- We know what we have to do on the pitch and we'll do everything to win. The atmosphere is not normal for a football game but we came here to play and we know the atmosphere will be fiery. We know no one will applause us here like no one applauded Albania in Belgrade. Albania's coach is an Italian, he know what a mental preparation is. We have to show what we are capable of on the pitch - Serbia's team captain Ivanovic said. Curcic has injury struggles in all lines since Marković, Nastasić, Maksimović, Kostić and Andrija Živković are all injured, while Chelsea's defensive midfielder Matic might not play.

- We are ready for anything and we have no reasons to think about anything but football. No point in wasting energy thinking about stuff that will not be happening on the pitch - coach Curcic said. He wants his players to open the game as calmly as possible and show their quality. even though Serbia did fail badly in some of the previous qualifiers, especially as a team, which did not work even though they have such great individuals. 

- We respect Albania because they've been doing good. It's easier to prepare fr this game than the one against Armenia. The players are motivated and we hope that results in a good outcome for us - Curcic said. The Italian ref Rizzoli was appointed for this match. He officiated the World Cup final in Brazil last season. 

I don't want to get caught in the trap with the yellow cards here because the margins are set extremely high. I'll rather go with the option that includes red cards as well (10 points yellow card, 25 points red card). Simply, we need 6 yellow cards, 4 yellow cards and 1 red card, 2 yellow and two red cards...
Albania are racing to secure a spot in the Euro and Serbia have only one mission – to prevent them from reaching that goal. It is very clear that this will not be your regular game. Both teams have gone over this margin in previous qualifiers even though this is more a situation than a statistical bet.
The Italian referee Rizzoli makes the situation even better as he has a short fuse when it comes to giving out cards. He has officiated 1 games this season and went into over in 4. He's not the one to talk and give much explanations to players, he simply punishes them with cards. He is too well-experienced to stand by and want a rough and dirty game that can escalate into an incident in the stands. Alongside the usual bookings that are the result of fouls, I also expect 2-3 rows on the pitch that will result in at least 2-3 yellow cards and possibly a few red cards (especially near the end of the game when one side will be extremely nervous). I think this is the safest version of this bet. You can also go with the red card and over 65 points for lower stake as well.