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The chaotic state of Orlando should be taken advantage of with this pick. To start with, they're the worst team of the league offensively, averaging 69.5 points per game. They're also among the oldest, and play at a very slow pace with fewer possessions. Lately they lost their backup point guard Cochran, and some of his time will to veteran Basile (40y) and slow their offense a bit more. Foward Burgess and his 9 points per game are also out of the team, and the biggest blow was the departure of best scorer Freeman, who averaged 15.3 points. No replacements were brought in, which means this reduced their rotation to 7 players, including 40-year-old Basile and 38-year-old Nicević. Avellino are clearly a favorite against such a dismantled team, but as Avellino are not exactly offensively focused, and their matches tend to have lower scores, I believe it would take nothing short of a miracle for Orlando to score more than 70. Their scores from their last five games were 57, 63, 63, 73, 67, and with the above mentioned three players missing they'll be lucky to reach 60. Avellino limited Milano, the best offense of the league, to 60 points in the Cup game. The first match of these two saw Avellino winning the away at Orlando 81-67. An alternative would be to take a handicap on Avellino, but everything points toward a slow match with a lower score, making an under seem like a better option.