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Basketball » VTB (M), 1. round
OddsStatsTip
19.10.2014. 15:00 Finished
Nilan Bisons - Tsmoki Minsk (102:79)
Total points (OT incl.) 161 tip: Under   Goran
Odds Stake Min. odds Last margin Bookmaker
1.97 5/10 1.70 158 Pinnacle
According to statistics, this margin is more than justified. Bisons played games at 169, 195, and 178, and Minsk on 190 and 148. But, this is a typical example of how statistic can be misleading. The Bisons played against three strong Russian teams who dominated physically, so Gibson couldn't do anything else but to try to speed the game up to the max and jeopardize the opponent like that. However, this is a completely different story. Minsk's centers are all shorter than 210 cm, and the Bisons can do much better with the rebounds, so no point in rushing. On the other hand, their strength is questionable. They played in Krasnojarsk on Wednesday, concluding the exhausting Russian tour, came back from Siberia, 5 000 km away, and less than 24 hours ago, they played a championship game where they were easily defeated and where Gibson didn't spare the leaders. It's really hard to expect them to run like crazy, and there's no need for it, either. Besides, the Bisons proved to be a much stronger team when playing at home, as shown in the home games for Eurocup last season. They ended the games at 125 (Neptunas), 121 (Bešiktaš), 147 (Spartak), 148 (Radnički), and 160 (Panionios in an irrelevant game of the last round). Also keep in mind that Neptunas and Radnički are very fast teams whose games often ended at 170, 180, and even more points. I expect the Bisons to keep those, and even much lower numbers.
As for Minsk, the game against Himki is no measure, Kurtinaitis's team is untouchable now, and Minsk simply didn't have a solution. The game turned into a revue pretty quick, and ended at 190 points. We heard statements that the plan was to limit Himki to 70 points, and that's the philosophy of the game Krivonos aim for. That's how Minsk played in his first "mandate", and that's how they won in Samara. The plan worked perfectly, Minsk limited the Russian team to only 60 points in 35 minutes, and if they didn't stumble in the final moments, they'd have conceded under 70 and won the game. That's the approach we can expect today, too. Minsk never went over this margin in eight games in the pre-season so far, and I expect this game to have fewer points.
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