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Basketball » Brazil 1 (M), 19. round
29.01.2015. 23:00 Finished
Minas Mg - Brasilia (79:87)
Total points (OT incl.) 154,5 tip: Under   Nucky
Odds Stake Min. odds Bookmaker
1.85 5/10 - Bet365
I believe this margin to be the product of the last few games by Minas, in which they played uncharacteristic basketball. They scored 100 against Cearense in their last game, but the match was over after the first 10 minutes and the bench had a field day shooting it out later. There was no need for a quality defense, the entire team rotated out and got a chance. I'm more inclined to expect a game such as the one recently played between Minas and Mogi, that ended at 142. Brasilia went over at this margin four times in the last five games, but the reason for that were the opposing teams. Paulistano scored 94 on them, Mogu 88, Bauru had 85. Uberlandia remained at 91 in the last round. Those were all teams with much better offenses than defenses. They have no more room for error, and have shown they cannot parry faster teams on offense, leaving them a lower scoring game as the only way to win. The reason is obvious: they depend too much on Lamonte, Giovannoni and Cipollini on offense, and the three of them cannot score over 45 points combined. As Minas are a team with the best defense in the league, I'm sure they'll gladly accept a slower pace. Their first match ended at 152, and the stakes are much higher now, as Minas need a win to stay in contention for fourth position, while Brasilia need it to get back in the zone that allows playoff. Although there is still a lot to be played till the end of the season, this game is important for both teams, and I'm sure both will play slower and we won't see more than 150 points scored in total.
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