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The games UAE played so far showed how atypical this Asian team are. They're very powerful offensively, and can create a few great chances to score against anybody. They scored six in the first two games. True, Iran didn't concede a goal in the first two matches, but they'll have to open up today because only a win will get them to the first place. Write it all down, and this is how it is: Iran are stronger defensively, but one point means nothing to them and they have to attack. Considering that for them it's the same whether it ends 0-0 or if they lose 4-0, they can't calculate. UAE can't defend 0-0 and secure the first place like that. Playing the bunker would mean sacrificing the best they've got (offensive players), and relying on the defense that conceded a goal against Qatar or Bahrain. And if they do concede one goal, it's all the same to them if it ends 1-0 or 4-0. So, whenever the result is a draw, their fast players will have space behind the Iranian defense. I think the odds would be realistic if things were the other way around, if Iran could settle with one point and if they wanted to keep 0-0. This way, I'd set the odds for the margin at 2.5 goals. The luxury of a void if they stop at exactly 2 gives value to this bet.