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Basketball » Greece 1 (M), 23. round
OddsStatsTip
28.04.2015. 19:45 Finished
Aris - Panathinaikos (56:72)
Total points (OT incl.) 144 tip: Under   Goran
Odds Stake Min. odds Last margin Bookmaker
1.95 4/10 1.70 142 Pinnacle
Although at first this seems like a low margin, I think it's still to high and that it should be around 140 points. Panathinaikos are a lot firmer in away games than at home, and today they are going to face a team who, next to Olympiacos, rely the most on defense in the entire league. If we look at the statistical averages of both of them this season, the margin was set right, but we need to dissect certain matches, especially with Panathinaikos who often easily beat their opponents. Ivanovic's team had a couple of away matches this season against conceptually similar teams, and they mostly stayed below this margin (PAOK 125 and 139 points, Kifsia 138, AEK 132, Koroivos 131). The only exception is the derby in Piraeus which ended at 156 points. If we mention Euroleague, we can see that PAO were in Milan at 130, in Berlin at 134, in Belgrade at 137 points. My first thought was to play Panathinaikos's team under, but with Thomas's injury I think Aris will have a lot of problems in the offense. Their results in home matches speak volumes: they went over 140 against faster teams; the exception was the match against Kifsia which was played in an empty hall. The audience will today be Aris's huge support and with Thomas, and especially without him, I expect Aris to completely tighten the defenses, and in such a match they will look for their chance. This is an important match for both of them, offensively they were very modest in similar matches and I expect this to end at 130-140 points, rather than going towards 150.
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