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The French league is not filled with bookings which is why the margins on the overall number of bookings are regularly lower than in Spain for example. That is why we have 4,5 bookings here which is, in my opinion, too low for this game. There is great rivalry between Lyon and Marseille. I expect today something similar to their first game this season, even more so because none of them are in a great position on the league table and the points are extremely important. I checked the stats of their last head-to-head games and it says: 5Y i 1R, 6Y and 1R, 4Y, 3Y, 8Y, 5Y, 2Y, 3Y and 1R, 8Y and 1C (overtime in the Cup), and 4Y.
I think the margin on the bookings is too low, but there is another bet we can place here. In their last 10 head-to-head games, we had 4 red cards, and the odds on red cards are around 4.00 today which means there's great value. The referee on the game is ref Gaultier who has shown that he easily gives bookings in the nine games this season, he showed red cards in six games which is a lot. Marseille are not one of the most disciplined teams in the league, but their players were sent off only 4 times this season, once against Layon. On the other side, Lyon's stats are not in our favor because their players were not sent off this season in the championship, only once in the Champions League. Despite this information, I believe that the odds on send offs have value and that they can be taken for a lower or medium stake.