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Real need a win for Top 16, Strasbourg need to win by 28 points

The scenario in which the French team win by 28 or more points and advance through is completely unrealistic. granted, they could also advance through with just any kind of a win, but Bayern then need to beat Zvezda in Belgrade. Strasbourg lost 7 straight Euroleague away games and never record a defeat by less than 15 points

Real Madrid got back to being one of the top contenders for the Euroleague title the last few weeks after being on the verge of finishing their Euroleague campaign late November. After being only one defeat short of that, Real are once again in a situation where everyone talks about them with respect. The dominant performances against Bayern and Gran Canaria confirmed their brilliant form. Real allowed under 70 points in each those games, which didn't happen many times this season. 

The great progress coincided with Rudy Fernandez's injury, which brought the team together. Real's results started getting better when Rudy got injured, which is no surprise since the defense was the segment through which Real won all the titles last season. Everything today will come down to defense again. 

- Things weren't good in the first game in Strasboug, especially in defense. But we've come a long way since and I expect us to prove that today - the young center Hernangomez said. 

Real lost the first match 93-86. Even they sometimes cannot win if the opponents go over 90 points, which is exactly what happened in France. Things will be very different today since those 40 minutes are everything Real are focused on:

- We're in for an important game, this is like a final for us. We managed to get back from a pretty difficult situation and we learned a lot in those games. We now have to play the best 40 minutes, not giving the opponents any chance. 

When Real are that determined, not even teams much better than Strasbourg would stand a chance here. Real will do well in defense, which will result in a lot of counter attacks. The game organization with Rodriguez and Doncic seems to be a high level, which means we most likely won't see as many turnovers as in the first head-to-head game. 

Strasbourg know full well what a tough task they will be faced with today, especially since Real will be extra motivated to get back at the French team for the defeat in France. It was the second great win for Collet's team in Euroleague this season (after Fenerbahce) but that seems like a distant past now.

- We will try and use our chance in Madrid, how ever slim they might be. It's possible to create surprises in basketball - the French coach Collet said.

If that was coming from any other coach, we might take it seriously, but let's not forget that his team didn't win a single Euroleague away game in this millennium. They opened this campaign on a 12-game losing run and added 4 since. None of those defeats were by less than 15 points. Strasbourg should win by 15 in Madrid today...

- If we want to stay in the game, we cannot allow them to gain confidence. If we do, we don't stand a chance - Collet said, while guard Campbell added:

- We have to stop their transition and we have to be really smart in offense and force them into defense, while, of course, hitting our shots. We are very motivated. 

The problem is, Strasboug won't lose just in Euroleague away. They are on a 4-game losing run in the French championship. The last defeat was to Le Mans. Collins, who was questionable, played that game, which means the french team should be complete today. 

Strasboug's struggles in away games are very well-known. They lost 15 straight Euroleague away games, (all 4 this season, never hit over 64 points). Team under at Strasbourg is definitely a good option but I think playing the French at under 35,3 in the first half is even a better option. That way we don't have to be worried about about Real letting go in the second half if they take a big lead, which is definitely a realistic outcome. This tip is based on solid stats as Strasbourg hit 32, 49, 29, 26, 51, 34, 34, 29 and 43 points int eh first half of Euroleague games this season. That means that they have 6 unders in 9 games. One of the overs (51) was from the Real game, but that kind of outcome is not realistic here at all. Strasbourg hit 32 against Zvezda, 29 against Bayern, 26 against Khimki and 34 against Fener and finished all 4 games in an under. Since I expect Real to be very motivated today because of the defeat in France and because they need this win. I don't think Strasboug will get much room for their game in the first half or in the entire game.

Louis Campbell is a 36-year-old and 190 cm tall point guard at Strasbourg. His team needs a win by 28 points over Real today to advance through, which is of course mission impossible. Campbell doesn't force shots, his main thing are assists and game organization. He's on a 8,7 average this season in Euroleague but that average was boosted by the first h2h against Real when he hit 23 points with unrealistically high shooting percentage and three point efficiency. His average without that game would be 6,8 points. Campbell's average in France this season is 5,3 points. he went over this margin in 2 out of 12 games when he hit 9 points. I don't think the same players can do that well against Real twice, especially since Real's defense improved massively since that game. Real will be fully focused today, Strasbourg are now a completely different team and do not have an away win in EL this season. The margin is overall too high since this game is important for Real. Strasbourg are playing away, their form is not good and Campbell not taking a lot of shots are good enough reasons for this under. If he performances as he normally does, I expect his to finish with some 20-25 minutes and 4-8 points. I would set the margin at 6,5 at the highest.