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Even if Jicha was completely healthy, Horak not injured throughout the whole season and with a few more players that are not in Qatar for different reasons, the Czechs would have a hard time standing up to Iceland. Palmarsson, Petersson, Sigurdsson, Gunarsson and others have enough quality to bring down CzR even when the opponents are at their best. This Czech team lacks quality and Jicha cannot make the kind of difference he used to make now. Horak has been injured since the start of the season and aggressive Icelandic defense won't let them have any room. I don't think the Czechs believe in getting through to next round anymore and if Icelanders go off to a good start, the Czech will lose faith soon. The game will still be close at this margin and I don't think Iceland will let go after taking a 3-4 lead. On the contrary, fast breaks will give them the chance to record an even more convincing win. Details

Uwe Gensheimer has the carte blanche in Sigurdsson's Germany (as well). There is no other left wing on the team, he's often the first one to run the fastbreaks, finishes off many attacks, and isn't shy about attacking solo either...Besides, he's the first and second option when it comes to seven-meter throws at Germany. They never had less than four of those so far (7 against Poland!). Argentina's opponents were awarded 3,2, and 3 seven-meter throws, but we should expect at least 2-3 goals 7-meter goals by Gensheimer today plus 3 or 4 from the floor, given the unlimited authority and the quality he has and 60 minutes he will spend in the game. Details

A team with Kiel's first choice left back, Lowen's right back, Barcelona's left back and PSG lineman scored 7 goal in a half time against this Sweden in the opener. Hats off to El Ahmar and others, but I don't think they're capable of scoring twice as much against Sweden. After the 7 goals conceded in the Iceland game, Sweden got tougher against the Czechs and limited them to 10 goals. Algeria scored one goal in the first 11 minutes of the next game and only 6 by half time. Denmark scored 10 in a half time in a test game against Sweden. Egypt are better than Algeria and the Czech Republic at this point, but will most likely not record 12 goals. They scored 11 against the French, 13 to CzR. Swedish defense is better than both of those, in fact, they have the best defense in Qatar and have top goal keeper Anderson. Egypt don't have what it takes to threaten their mighty 6-0 defense. It's possible they'll settle the game early on, it's also possible they will struggle, but that, if it happens, won't be at 15-14 but at 12-10 or something like it. Details

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Iran are playing fast with Borut Maček, that was obvious in the first three matches. They went to 63 against Croatians, 64 against Macedonians, and with one of the slowest and toughest teams in general, BiH, they ended the game with 55 goals. The Iranians are pulling the fast center, they're not really aggressive in the offense and they don't make many faults, but they have a hard time stopping the opponent's transition. I have no doubt the Austrians will accept that game style, and their results against Tunisia and BiH shouldn't fool you, those were two aggressive teams in matches that mattered much. Besides expecting a fast rhythm, I expect that the Austrians won't struggle against Iran as the Macedonians and the Bosnians did, so the aggressiveness will decrease as the game goes on. Details

Czech Republic are not displaying great offense potential so far, having gone over this margin only 4 times in the last 17 games (friendly matches included). Out of the 4, one was the insignificant EC match with Denmark (scored 29 and lost), the second one in which they scored 20 by half time and 33 in total against Serbia, the third one recently against Macedonia in the qualifier home (27) and the final one here against the French (27). They managed to score that many only because the French goal keepers did horribly. The key player at CzR is Jicha, who lost 7 kilos, with the only other player at the level this game demands being Horak. Horak struggled with injuries for the most part of the season, just like Jicha. Even before Jicha's struggles, CzR's defense looked horrible in qualifying games with Germany. This is a very important game against the angry and motivated Egypt, who will have a lot of fan support. Their defense is tough and won't leave the Czech back players with much room. Egypt have never gone over this margin at the African championship, they never conceded more than 23 goals at preparation tournament ahead of this WC, and the team that limited Croatia at the last WC. All the prerequisites for this bet are met tough and aggressive Egxptian defense, the fans, and the importance of the game. The winner would basically secured round of 16. Good choice besides this one is the first half under at the Czechs (13.5 with some bookies) and the total under. Details

The Argentinians played 16 games since the Spain WC, and were defeated by 6 or more goals only three times. The French did it twice, one of which was in the preparation for this WC, and once they were defeated by the Algerians (who are now weaker), in an irrelevant match. They progressed, and despite the point against the Danes doesn't really represent the realistic ratio of strength, this handicap margin and these odds for the Polish aren't realistic either. But, statistics aside, the biggest reason for this bet is a matchup that's awful for the Polish. The Argentinians play firm, aggressive, and deep defense that doesn't nearly suit the Polish back line. Biegler didn't use Bielecki against the Germans much, but he'll hardly get his chances to shoot today. Michal Jurecki isn't an image of speed and the Argentinians could often catch him in faults. The big problem for the Polish is that they cam here without their center back and this back line will have a hard time against the Argentinian defense. True, it's been four years since their match in Sweden WC, when the Polish lead at the half-time 11-6, and then barely won in the end, 24-23. Some players changed, not too many, especially in Argentina's team, but the concepts remained very similar. I remember that game and the big problems the Polish had with their defense. They had two pivots then- Jaszka and Tkaczyk, now they don't. The fast Jaszka could be worth gold today, if he was there. On the other hand, the Argentinians improved since that match, they're growing up, and Diego carries Montpellier's game these days. They're not harmless, they'll bite even more than they did against the Danes, because this is a game that will decide if they pass through - they can't eliminate the Danes, and they can the Polish. The team under for the Polish (28.5) is worth even more than this bet, so if you can take it, do. But, because the handicap is more widely available, we'll take that. Details

We'll make an exception and post another tip on the Croatia-Tunisia game. When talking about this game, many refer to the London Olympics QFs game where Tunisia give Croatia a hard time, but couldn't win in the end. For me, there's absolutely no connection between that game and this one set to be played today. First of all, it's been two and a half years, the teams have changed and Hasanefendic won't approve of any border-line unsportsmanlike conduct that Portes encouraged at Tunisia back then. Most importantly, that was the match for Olympics semi finals, while Tunisia cannot afford to go all out today since they are yet to play the most important games in their bid to qualify for the next stage. I think Tunisia are hit by the new guidelines in punishing fouls the referees were given harder than any other team. They played a bad game with Macedonia on both ends of the floor yesterday. Tunisia have very little creativity in offense and I don't think they will stand a chance again the Croatian defense that is eager to make amends after the bad performance yesterday. I think Tunisia are a much less dangerous threat for Croatia than Austria. Croatian coach Goluza will insist on focus until he has the goal-difference that will make him happy and that will allow them reshuffling, which is what he did yesterday too as soon as they took a 11-6 lead. As a said, this is no Olympic games QFs, Tunisia probably counted on this defeat and know the games to come are their real chance. I'm opting for the first half handicap, though I think Croatia can win the second half convincingly as well. Details

When the bookies offer the margin on Rutenka at 6.5 goals for a national team game, you first bet and then think about it. All joking aside, Rutenka scores when he has to. When it comes to his national team matches, he rarely even fires under 15 shots and scores under 8-9 goals. He was 8-for-17 and 8-for-15 in the two preparation games and that was just after he recovered from an injury. His last EC games, the ones he was fully committed to ended as overs (9-for-16, 8-for-14, and 13-for-19). At last WC, he ended in under against Arabian and in that crushing defeat to Croatian. All the other games were overs (9-for-14, 10-for-15, 11-for-16, and 9-for-11). He scored 10, 10, 11, 14, and 5 goals in EC qualifying games. In other words, out of the last 12 games that mattered, Rutenka scored 8 or more goals in 11 of them. The five goals were in the qualifying game with Slovenia when they managed to stun the opponents to win in the end. Rutenka missed the game four days before with an injury and before even managing to recover scored 5 goals. Those are the circumstances surrounding that under. This game is very important just like any of those 12 and I believe Rutenka will do as he normally does. Granten, the Slovenians know him very well, but so does everyone else. Denic's players want to beat Belarus, not stop Rutenka today since that didn't help last time. Rutenka was 1-for-2 before being sent off, which is why the bookies offer this margin today (7.8 and 8.5 from yesterday). Details

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Slovenia are among the fastest teams in the world and teams like Chile a perfect opponent for a productive game. If they concede, they get back to offense quickly and if not, they move into fast-breaks quickly. On the other hand, if they are met with a defense that manages to get organized in time, Slovenia should still be too fast for Chile, especially in case Chile tries to stop them with deep defense. Slovenia have 4 middle backs (Zorman, Bombač, Skube, Bezjak) and Dolenec is a similar player. They have a lot of choice that allows them to shuffle the lineup a lot. When it comes to their games like this one, they almost never end under 60 goals. On the other hand, Slovenia aren't really aggressive in defense, which I think Chile will take advantage of, especially with Slovenia (un)wittingly not using too much energy since a lot together games are to follow. Chile have three games of the American championship on record and one friendly match with Argentina as unders. But forget about that - those rivals are tough and games highly competitive. Chile played only one match under this margin at last WC (Qatar, 23-31). They managed to score 28 against the slow-paced Macedonia to finish at 58 goals, while their games with fast-paced team like Denmark (24-43) and Iceland (22-38) ended as overs. I expect a similar outcome today, Slovenia closer to 40 and Chile definitely close to 25 goals. Details

Gorbok never went over this margin in the last EC, when it comes to all official games he went over only once in the unimportant game with Austria when he scored 5. Not even in friendly matches is he able to do it often. There are very good circumstances that should prevent him from it today - Saudi Arabia will probably play very deep defense against which Gorbok's far-distance shots won't work, I expect a lot of fast breaks and less well-organized, long attacks, and lastly, I expect young Derevenj to spend a lot of time in the game. Russia have a lot of work to do, this is the tougest group in WC and there's no reason for Gorbok to spend a lot of time on the floor today if not necessary. Details

Balingen left the unready Nyokas and Theuerkauf at home, and that's the key of this bet. Not only because they're two of the important players of the team, but because it shows Balingen have forfeited before the match even started. They're aware that they can't harm Flensburg and they are just going to do this because they have to... On the other hand, Flensburg is a machine who, when stronger than their opponents, pulverize them. If we look at their wins against weaker rivals, rarely was anyone below -6; what they had to win they surely did. They are especially impressive at home, and if we ignore defeats against Barca and Lowen, strong rivals, they only won against Kiel (4) and Hamburg (5) with less than -6. In their hall they left Kolding at -7, Fuchse at -9, Wisla at -7, and strong Melsungen with -7 in the championship and in the cup with -16. Balingen, on the other hand, aren't that impressive - outside of their hall they've only beaten the Bietgheim (before they got stronger) and surprised Hamburg, everything else is not important. When we are looking at clashes with teams from the top half of the table, they have the historical triumph over Kiel at home at the start of the season, and they didn't give any resistance to the rest of the teams (Goppingen at home -6, Magdeburg away -8, Gummersbach away -6, Lowen at home -5, Burgdorf away -6, Fuchse away -7, Melsungen away -11). Flensburg are without their first offense option, Glandorf, but the offense was never the key of their game. It was the firm defense with great Andersson as the goalkeeper, who is still great. This is the last match of the year, they're playing at home, and I'm afraid Balingen are up for a fate similar to Frisenheim's who last week came as an equally important team, only to go home with -19. Details

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Even statistics-wise, this bet seems to make sense at first - Vardar have 10 unders and 5 overs at this margin in their official games, while Veszprem have 8 unders and 5 overs. If we analyze things a bit further, it gets even better. The draw put these two teams in a Champions League group with three extra fast-paced teams (Cehovski Medvedi, Celje and Montpellier). Besides, both teams are sailing through the SEHA League, which causes not many overs at this margin since most of their games have a winner even before they start. The stakes are high, it's a fight for top spots in the group and Vardar will have a packed arena cheering them toward the win. Veszprem will not have it easy in Skopje, I expect a close game. The games with Montpellier aside, all the close games these two teams played always finished under this margin (Vardar vs. Lowen 28-25, vs. Celje 27-26, Veszprem vs. Celje 24-21, vs. Lowen 27-24, vs. Zagreb 27-22). There's no reason for expecting anything else today. Veszprem play a very tough defense, Vardar's is tough enough and they have one of the top goal keepers Sterbik. Bardar and Veszprem already met in Hungary (SEHA League) early this season. Vardar lacked ambition and players to lose convincingly 31-23. Even like that, the game ended as an under. Details

Tatran took advantage of Vojodina's poor opening in Slovakia to take the lead in the first ten minutes, sailing through the rest of it. Vojvodna's top player Elezovic got injured in that game but should be back on the team, which is why I think this game will be much different. If it does, this margin makes no sense.
Vojvodina are an extremely defense-oriented team, with their games ending at an average of 52.8 goals. They recorded only two overs at that margin - the aforementioned 66 in Slovakia and a 44-22 win over Zeleznicar, whom they destroyed in the Serbian Supercup. The third most productive game was when their ailing team met Meshkov away (34-22), the fourth one is the CL qualifier with Targos Beva (30-25), followed by a defeat to Zagreb 24-29. All the other games ended at 52 or less goals, meaning that only the ones they lost or won easily ended at over 52. That is not to be expected today since Vojvodina have all the players to count on.
They particularly tough home, limiting Vardar to 26 goals, Metalurg to 25. The best team in the league Veszprem scored 32 in their head to head game, limiting them to 13, but Tatran are no Veszprem.
Vojvodina and Tatran met one other time this season - in a CL qualifying game that ended at 46 goals. Vojvodina put up a good fight to Tatran home (24-25) last year, after an easy away defeat 37-26.
Players of the Slovakian team have participated in their respective national team campaigns last week, then played a Cup game in Bratislava (14-9 by half-time, scored 45 in the end) and now expect a very tough challenge. Vojvodina are capable of standing up to Tartan and this game is more likely to be like their close games in Croatia (Zagreb 25-21, Nexe 27-26) then a fast-pace, highly-productive game. Details

Yes, Iceland did struggle in the first half-time against Israel, got better only after 25th minute, they miss Palmarsson in the offense and it shows. Yes, Montenegro got a great coach, Porto, who played a good game against Serbia. Yes, Montenegro are traditionally strong at home - they defeated the likes of Sweden, Germany, Czech... But, to review. Iceland struggled but won by almost 20. The Serbians controlled the game against Montenegro completely. Third, Montenegro that defeated Germany and Sweden isn't the same as this one - main players aren't here, Marković was gotten over long time ago, and the pivot Rakčević, the backs Ševaljević, Mravaljević, Pejović are out, also the rigth back Roganović... What's left? Besides the decent goalie Mijatović and PSG's wing Melić, Montenegro are lead by the back duo Borozan - Lipovina. The first one plays barely a little with Červar, Lipovina played a bit more at the beginning of the season when Vugrinec was injured. The pivot is decent Grbović, but he plays in the worst team of SEHA league, Radnički. Other seeds include Milašević, Čavor who play the second and the third league in their clubs. Those guys, whose seeds are Metalurg substitutes and other we mentioned...
Iceland's players, on the other hand, have plenty of experience, competitions under their belts, medals, games played together... Iceland missed the WC in Qatar because they underestimated BiH, who are a better team than this Montenegro. They won't let another team take their chances away. They are very eager to win, and won't let anything to be decided by luck. Their aggressive 6-0 will ruin Montenegrin players, they'll have their counter and semi counter attacks, and enough experience to score when given the chance. Quality, motivation and experience are on their said, this handicap is small, I doubt the Icelanders will allow themselves to get a tie. An even better bet is on team under for Montenegro, I doubt they can score over 25 goals, but because the handicap is widely available, feel free to take that. Details

The running they were forced into against Selestat aside, Chambery's average in this season's games is 49.8 goals (48.7 home). Not only have they never had an over at this margin, but their fastest-pace and most efficient game this year was the one against the fast Montpellier (ended at only 54 goals). The second most efficient one was another meeting with Montpellier in preseason (52 goals), the third most efficient with Toulouse (51 goals), and so on. Can Paris force Chambery into a game with 60 or more goals scored? Not very likely. Paris played the fast-pace Logron over the weekend, and couldn't get the game to more than 57 goals despite being significantly ahead at half time. They are much better defense-wise than they were the last few years, with Omeyer getting some credit for it. He didn't leave the game against the Spanish team even though the outcome was already settled. On the other hand, their offense is often lacking good organization, depending on individual players to create attempts, and with Hansen, Narcisse and Kopljar out, doesn't seem to be good. When Gardent decided to get the substitutions in, Paris' offense struggles. They have not been over this margin many times, as the stats suggest, only in the convincing wins over Nimes and Tremblay. I don't expect them to record such a convincing win over Chambery, despite all the opponents' problems. 49 goals were scored in their game with Zagreb, 49 with Metalurg, and 54 in their convincing win over Cesson... I think this game is more likely to be like those than a game with 60 or more goals. Details