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Vardar's players announce a celebratory atmosphere for today's duel. That is not foreign to them at home against weaker teams. Since they were taken over by Kastratovic, they regularly played attractive games against weaker opponents. Last season at home they played at 60 goals against defensively oriented Podravka and at 71 against offensively oriented Krim. The season before that they played around with Podravka and stopped at 65 goals. In this season, they played an attractive game against Hypo. The duel in Austria finished at 63 goals. 31 goal was scored in the first half when Vardar were playing with full strength, 32 in the second half when their reserve team played. It is important that there is no difference regardless of who is on the field, since Kastratovic announced that she will give the younger players a chance. In such situation, it should be more easier for Hypo to score as well. Another game that leans toward around 60 goals wouldn't surprise me. Details

The margin at total goals simply makes no sense to me. The bookies set the margin at 56 goals and it finished at 51. The margin is two goals better for s and there is nothing that suggests we'll see a productive game here. On the contrary, these points are even more important for both teams than those from the last game. Hard need points to prevent Fivers from getting home court advantage in playoffs. Since both teams play tough defenses and the visitors are without first choice right back Tanaskovic, I definitely don't expect this match close to 60 goals or over 60 goals. Details

The only thing the bookies took into consideration when setting this margin were Dinamo's last three rounds. Granted, those matches were unders at today's margin but we need some perspective. They played two tough Bucharest derby matches against CSM and Steaua and after that got limited to 53 against the very offense-oriented Timisoara. Poliesti are a total opposite. They have the fastest pace in Romania, alongside Dinamo and Vaslui. Dinamo are currently on a 57,5-point average, Vaslui are on 56,1. They met Vaslui once and I expect a similar game today. Pliesti were limited to 59 and Dinamo to 68 points against Vaslui. Both of those games went well over this margin. Today's opponents played even the slowest-paced team in the league Resita at 61 and 69 points. I don't see how their h2h can finish at under 55. i would not be surprised if it got close to 60. Details

The Slovenians demonstrated all of their offensive strength yesterday. They easily scored 39 goals against Hungary, who are weakened but still better than Romania. And it all happened in 55 minutes, they were very bad offensively in the finish. But there is still room for improvement. The Slovenians scored those 39 goals by using just half of their strength. Their top shooting duo, Janc and Malus, played for less than 20 minutes. At the middle back position mostly played their third and fourth choice (Kocbeck, Velkavrh), Cvetko, who is a better player, got only 20 minutes, and Kotar didn't even play at his position, middle back, but he substituted Sokolic on the wing. Slovenia couldn't make any more experiments, their offense can only look better today. Defense suffered a lot because of these changes, and middle part looked bad because pivot Stojnic was absent. Pivots walked around behind their back, easily got into situations to shoot on the goal. As soon as the Slovenians had a bigger lead (21.12 at halftime) the intensity of contacts in defense dropped, and it was like a real friendly match until the end. I expect a similar situation against Romania today. They are defensively even weaker than the Hungarians. At the last year's European Championship, in the group stage, they conceded 43 against France, 41 against Croatia and 43 against Hungary. Overall sum of goals in those games was 67, 67 and 73. Slovenian offense is at the same level as French and Hungarian, I expect them at over 40 goals today. I also expect Romania at over 20, it wouldn't surprise me if they reached 25. I already mentioned the reason - Slovenians don't play maximally in the defense after they gain advantage, first thing they focus on is attractiveness. This could be another classic friendly game where defense is played with half the strength, and with that a result at over 60 goals is quite probable. Details

Statistics are leaning towards the under. WW are at an average of 54,5 goals, Barnbach at 52,5. These two teams played their first head-to-head game at only 43 goals. Barnbach won 22-21 in a duel of strong defenses, and both teams played at a slower pace. The home team have five overs at today's margin, but against teams whose game style is different from Barnbach's. Against anyone who imposed with their defense at least a little, they stayed under today's margin: against Bruch at 54 and 44, against Barnbach 43 and Hard 51. I cannot expect anything else today, but Barnbach's imposing with defense and slowing the pace down. That is their style, they cannot play any other way. Primarily because they highly rely on experienced back players (Poklar, Grebenar, Kolar, Butenko) who have no intention to outrun anyone. They don't have good replacements for them. The away team played only two games this season over this margin, against Fivers and Hard in games where they completely fell apart, they conceded 35 and 34 foals. Defense was against stable after that, in the last round they defeated Schwaz and scored 25 goals. Their offense has stayed at their usual level (26), Barnbach haven't scored over 27 goals at all this season. We shouldn't expect them to do so today. WW have a good defense, Jonsson up front in 5-1 formation already caused some problems for Barnbach's slower back players. The situations seems like it is set for another under on this quite high, and in my opinion completely missed, margin. Details

When they were falling apart, Buducnost with Savehof and Lublin played at 53 and 54 goals, with CSM at 54 and 45. In their head-to-head friendly they also stopped at 53 goals, not convincingly over the margin. Unlike the preparation match, there are a couple of changes which favor the under. The first one is definitely the more important match (point-wise), the points may be key for making it to the Final Four. The other important change is Lazovic's recovery. During the preparation match she played only 15 minutes, and today we can expect her on a higher level. The third change is Rasmussen's arrival on CSM's bench. The base of success with him, as was with Adzic, is a very firm defense. In such a match it should be very visible. I wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be one of Adzic's classical duels at 20-something goals. Details

This margin is mostly influenced by Fivers' win by only 6 goals earlier in the season. Schwaz got behind mostly thanks to the good quality defense as they were the only team that limited the team from Vienna at under 30 goals. But, they will be without three defense specialists today, which is definitely going to affect that segment of their game. Schwaz's offense without Kandolf might struggle more as well. The home team have to play with three right-handed players, which resulted in a bad performance in the Barnbach game. The Fivers are a much tougher opponent. They are very good at taking advantage of opponents' mistakes, which could be numerous given opponents' problems. That is why I don't expect Schwaz to be able to stand up to the top Austrian team today. Only other teams in the great four (Hard, Brengenz and Westwien) covered this handicap against Fiveres so far. Eckl's team covered this handicap in their 7 wins this season. Details

Komloi scored over 25 goals only once this season. It was against Vaci in the last round, who play the fastest handball in Hungary, and are a complete opposite of Balmaz. They even managed to stay on today's margin against Cegledi who are similar to Vaci. They stayed under against Oroshaze (47), Gyongyosi (44), and PLER (46). The only evened out match where they went over the margin was against Eger, 50. Balmaz played a match of 45 goals against Eger in the last round. The guests didn't play over 45 goals in the last four rounds, and nobody scored over 22 against them. They didn't play any evened out matches this season that went over 45, except Szeged, no wonder, and in the first two rounds against Cegledi and Oroshazi when they were still looking for the right defense. The first two rounds were also the only ones when Balmaz scored over 25. Both teams score a bit over 23 per match this season, and considering they both have good defensives, the slow handball they're playing, and the importance of the points from this duel, I don't expect them to go over their average. Details

I think Lublin are really underestimated here. Savehof are an awful team, full of young players who should get to shine in the Champions League only in a few seasons. The Polish have a few national team players and experienced international players. Gega, Neidzwiedz and Repelowska are experienced in the back line. Savehof can only dream of a team like that. Lublin's defensive are also better than Savehof, they conceded 30+ points only because they couldn't keep up with the more powerful teams for 60 minutes. The injuries limited their rotation, and that didn't help. Savehof definitely can't be compared to the teams like CSM or Budućnost. Their rotation is very limited, so Lublin shouldn't struggle keeping up with their rhythm for 60 minutes this time. The individual quality is far on Lublin's side. Add to that the hellish atmosphere that Signell's inexperienced team doesn't know how to deal with, I expect Lublin to win convincingly. A plus for this bet is that the goal difference could make a key role in passing the group, so they definitely won't relax until the game is over. Details

This is a classic match-up between two teams that heavily rely on their defensive qualities. They have been close to today's margin (Odorhei 51,8; CSM 52,3) on average this season, but as the season goes, more and more things are in favor of an under. The bet is more situational than statistical. Biggest bonus is Odorhei's rotation problem. They are playing with only nine players, they slow down the pace any chance they get. CSM are not a team to complain about that because slower pace suits them more. This way they managed to get Dinamo, who run a lot, down to 49 in the last round. In the four games before that, they haven't conceded more than 24 goals once, and the same will probably happen today against a team that has two good shooters (Bogunovic, Markez) and pretty much nothing else. The scenario in which CSM will score a lot against Odorhei is unreal for me. Both because of the fact that the away team have a lot of oscillations in the offense, and because Odorhei haven't lost anything defensively with these absences. Moreover, they are even stronger in defense now in order to compensate for the offensive shortcomings. So it doesn't seem there will be over 50 goals in this game. Details

Regardless of both right back players back in the team (Repelewska, Mihdailova), Lublin are still weakened. Drablik, Kocela, the middle back Synercz and Skrzyniarz, all important players, are missing. And they have to face the best defense of female club handball. Budućnost showed how great they are in the first round already, against Savehof. They were leading 17-8 by the half-time, and the starters didn't play their best match. Of those, Adžić is here today to try and redeem herself. The guests will be really focused. They've definitely got quality, and motivation. Ideal to crush another opponent. Lazović and Achruk might give a hand, too. If they play, Budućnost' defense will be even more compact. Lublin showed how limited they are offensively when they faced CSM, and that's still mostly due to all the absences they're dealing with. Now they'll face an even better defense, who also have more options to rotate. Since the Polish only have 12 players, they're very likely to stagnate in the second half-time. Budućnost, motivated as they are, can't be expected not to take advantage of that. With the real approach, that Adžić announces today, the guests can beat them by at least 10 goals. Only two seasons ago, these two teams played the group phase of the competition. Budućnost won 22-30 in Lublin, and things are even better today for them. They now have Kaća Bulatović, while the Polish then had their captain Malek, who retired in the meantime, the middle back Skrzyniarz who's injured, and Mihdailova who recovered from her injury only a few days ago. Details

Lugi won the first match home by 13 goals and are now even better since Roganovic got back on the team. Lugi now have an orthodox lefties at the right back position and do not have to improvise any longer. They are also motivated since the coaches want a more serious approach so that the games get settled early on. Lugi defintiely have the quality and not only because Roganovic got back. The other positions as good as well. The defense is Lugi's greatest strength, Drott do not have the quality for standing up to 6-0 zone defenses. They played 5 teams that prefer that kind of defense in the first five rounds and lost by 14 (Kristianstad), 13 (Lugi), 6 (Karlskrona), 11 (Aranas), and 5 goals (Malmo). Kristianstad and newly promoted Karlskrona and Aranas were away games. Drott's performances and horrible and they lack decisiveness in the key moments. Lugi already took advantage of that once and I'm sure they'll do the same here. Details

So far in the season Resita have shown clear tactics. They owe all their success to a very fierce defense and tactical discipline in the offense. They're after games for small number of goals in which their experience can play a very important role. In the last six rounds only once they played over 50 goals (43, 47, 69, 42, 50, 49) and it was against Dinamo who play with the toughest pace in this competition. Timisoara are the complete opposite of Dinamo, they are devoted to defense. Tactically they're a lot more similar to Turda, Odorhei and CSM with which whom Resita have always stayed under today's margin. Even in the last round against the run-oriented Steauo they stayed at only 49 goals. Timisoara are on average three goals above today's margin, but the reason is clear. The opponents were those who pushed the tougher pace, asked for less game on Milosevic's line-up good zone. Timisoara always slowed down the pace, especially in two situations: when they took over the lead of 3-4 goals of difference and in away matches. They played in away matches against Steauo at 48 points, Baia Mare at 53, Vaslui at 50 and Calasari at 53 points. All four teams play with a stronger pace than Resita. Because of that, I don't expect today's match to go over 50 points. Another plus is that it's also a local derby, so a lot more tension will be in place. In duels of two defensively oriented teams that means a fierce battle for each goal, and today I see that as a realistic scenario. Details

Szeged have a team of 16 equal players, and I don't think there'll be much drama today. Rotating that roster (Wyszomyrski, Ćuruvija, Robledo, Mindegia, Balogh/Ancsin, Balint, Vranješ) is Pastor's usual way of starting the matches in the Hungarian championship, and they're untouchable compared to the rest of the teams. I don't doubt their motivation either, because Pastor wasn't happy with their defense against Lowen, and also because Balaton are a branch of Veszprem - the rivalry between them and Szeged is infamous when it comes to the Hungarian male handball. As for Balaton, the coach Csoknyai regularly comes to these duels as if they were friendly ones. For example, they came to play Szeged like this last season after Szeged lost to Kielce, and Szeged still won by 12. Balaton rotated a lot then, too. The second duel was almost identical - Szeged also won by 12, and it was only three days prior to the key match of the national league, against Veszprem. I expect both sides to rotate today, as well, but it's definitely not the same when Balaton or Szeged do that. Balaton's already limited offense are weakened even more, with Szollosi's injuries. I expect Csoknyai to spare him for other matches since he's already coming here with an attitude that it would be a miracle if they got points. Details

Ystads lost in Russia more because them beat themselves, not because Perm outplayed them. Many fastbreak goals is the reason they lost. That is what Ysads want to fix in this match. They definitely possess the quality, especially in the powerful backfield Nilsson – Borgstedt – K. Andersson and lineman Bager and the tough 6-0 defense on the other end of the floor. The Russians are without team captain Buzmakov today. They struggled with teams much weaker than the Swedes this season. It's great that Ystads need a win by only 3 goals to get through (or two in case they concede less than 28), which is great for this margin since they cannot allow to hold back if they take a big lead in the game. Details

This is the same mistake the bookies have been making for two seasons now. The margin was set based on stats only, which plays a very small roll when these two teams meet. Granted, they are averaging around 50 goals per game this season as well Hammarby 48,6; Guif 51,2) but what's important here is the fact they so far played three Swedish teams that record most unders in the league - Redbergslids, Ricoh and Skovde. Guif played the other three matches with Alingsas at 52, Savenhof at 56 goals. Hammary played the same teams to finish at 56 against Alingasa and at 46 against Savenhof (because their offense did horribly. These teams met 6 times over the past two seasons and went over this margin each time: twice at 56, three times at 57 goals and once at 60. The coaches are the same, the key players as well now, with the only difference being the lineman position at Guif. Ingolfsson left, which is not bad because he was the central defender at the visitors together with Blank, who is now the only player at that position they have. Another reason to believe in an over is a small change in tactics Hammarby made this season. They are trying to score the goal faster then before, meaning their pace is faster now. That means they are more likely to keep on playing games at over 55 goals than to drop to around 50. Details

Odorhei are struggling a lot these days. Majnov and Mihalcei have been absent for a while, and now Rusia and Konya joined them. Markez should become the leader, but he's struggling with a sickness. There's nobody to replace any of them starters - the guests are coming with only two substitutes (Szasz, Csog). Those two aren't nearly as good as the starters. Things were similar two rounds ago when they played against Targu Jiu, and lost 26-22. Targu started their season badly - they got only one win in the first six rounds, against the new team Galati who look like a second-league team. Their opponent today, Dinamo, are exactly the opposite of Targu, and they already crushed them in the first EHF Cup duel, by 14, and in the league by 7. The EHF Cup return fixture was a tie, but that match was brimming with experiments. The Bucharest team are powerful at home, and are only winning there this season. Odorhei had a taste of their power last season when they lost by 10, and Dinamo have an even better lineup this time. Odorhei lost to Dinamo at home, too, last season, by three. Besides the opponent's quality, their game style isn't working for the guests either. Voica's team prefer strong rhythm, and good fastbreaks. For a team coming with only two substitutes and a key player who's sick, this is a nightmare. Just like the guest coach, I'm convinced this can be described as a derby only on paper. Dinamo's convincing win seems like a much more realistic scenario. Details

I hoped the bookings would 'fall for' only 40 goals in the Austria - Spain match, and that happened. The margin on 53,5 goals for this match is very low - today we have teams who play with a strong rhythm. This especially goes for the Netherlands. for whom we can say they 'fly' on the court. Their combinations are fantastic, and they score easily. With a completely healthy first scorer Abbingh they also have another good solution. The defense? That's another story. They had problems with the weak Bulgaria. The goalkeepers only confirmed they're the weakest link of the team. Austria didn't manage to impose themselves against Spain, but that was expected. Spain have a granite 6-0 defense of which both team can only dream. Muller's team should create easy scoring situations against the Netherlands. Besides, that's the only way for Austria to stand up to their opponents today because their defense is not their strongest suit, especially since they don't have Simona Spiridon anymore. All in all, both teams like to run, their defenses are weak and in such a situation I think a match with 55+ goals is realistic. Details

Two slowest-paced team of the Hungarian league are set to meet today. Tatabanya and Balatonfuredi are completely focused on defense and play a very careful game. Their goal average is just above this margin (Tatabanya 50, Balaton 49,8) but it's key for us to realize how those averages came to be. Tatabanya have them thanks to a few games that fell apart; they played two close games like the one expected today against Mezokovesdi at 46 and Oroshaz at 42 goals. Things are similar at Balaton as they went over the margin in chaotic games against Mezokovesdi (51), Komloi (56) and Oroshaza. who decided to try and outrun Balaton. The visitors stayed under this margin in all the other games, even in those against Eger and offense oriented Vaci (48 and 47 goals). Balaton are set to face a completely different team today - the defense-oriented Tatabanya. It is very realistic for this match to stay under 50 goals. They played at 49, 43, 43 and 54 goals. That means they went over this margin only once, at season end when no one needed the win, which is not the case today. Details

Timisoara are a typical defense-oriented team. They went over this margin only twice this season, both times against the inferior newly promoted teams (Galati and Focsani). They played one other game at exactly 55 goals (Poliesti, one of the only few Romanian teams that prefers the fast pace). Calarasi are not one of those teams. They are also defense-orietned but that is still not very visible. The key thign is, they have met almost all the top Romanian teams already to as a rule concede close to 30 goals. They stayed around this margin even in those kind of matches and Timisoara's offense is differently not as good as those of top Romanian teams. The visitors rely on the left back Chikvani too much, just like Calarasy rely on left back Sani too much. He did brilliantly in the last h2h to score 11 goals. The match stayed at 53 goals regardless of that. The first match of the last season finished at 49. There were no major changes in styles on either team so I don't expect this game to finish at more goals than the one from last season. It is more realistic for this one to stay at around 50 because Timisoara's defense is getting better as the season advances. Details