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This is a game for the first place in the group, but that's not the basis of this bet for me, quite the contrary... As it was said in the preview, it is doubtful what the first place really brings, because Serbia, Spain, Germany and France are all great teams and medal contenders. However, I think that there will be no lack of motivation in both teams, because no one wants to go into the key game of the tournament with two defeats behind them, which would significantly influence their confidence. Besides, Lithuania are playing games at 136.0 points at this tournament, Turkey at 129.2 and both of them have only one over in five games. We should also add that the Turks played four out of five games at around 20-point difference, so there was no drama in the finish, except for the game against Italy, which finished at 97 points. Even during the preparation period, they had only three overs on this margin, but none above 142 points, and all three games with Korkmaz in the lineup, i.e. with the complete squad, stayed under. The most important thing for this bet are the games against Lithuania, which finished at 128 (without Korkmaz) and 132 points (with Korkmaz). The stakes are higher today and I expect this game to go over 140 points. Lithuanian numbers in the preparation period were a bit higher, but in Volos, they played over 140 only yesterday against Italy. Especially significant for me is Varnas' statement ahead of this game that everything needs to start from strong defense and that that is the basis of their success. All arguments are in favor of the under and I think that this margin is four or five points too high. Details

I think that the fact that this is the match for staying in the competition influenced the margin. However, as strange as it sounds, matches in this group have very little meaning. Their purpose is to take positions before the key match in the playoffs from ninth to sixteenth place in which four teams from the second round who don't make it into the round of 16 will join them. However, far from it that the first place in this group guarantees any better draw, because until the very end no one will know what the first place actually brings. Because of that, these three matches have a far less meaning that the one match played on Thursday. Besides, this is a clash of two of the fastest national teams in the championship. And while the averages of most of the teams (except Croatia and Latvia) are far under 135 points, Finland is at 143.0 here, and Ukraine at 144.0 points per match. We have to add that matches against tough defense teams (Turkey, Italy, Spain, France) influenced that average. Yesterday in the match against Croatia and Ukraine it was best seen what happens when two teams with similar styles meet. Finland are even faster, they dragged Italy and Turkey to 140 points, Spain in preparations to 166 points, one firm Germany to 139 and 161. This match shouldn't lack racing around, both should accept such a pace considering that the match doesn't have some great significance. I think we will see one more match close to 150 or more points. Details

I think this margin is at least 4-6 points too short. Both teams prefer a fast-paced game, which should result in quite a lot of points here. The bookies were influenced by the Russian games against Italy and Turkey but those are teams with top defenses that played a head-to-head game at only 97 points. Lithuania's style is a bit different, they played a game with almost 150 shots from the floor with Croatia a few days ago and faster pace is no problem for them. Russia have lack of centimeters in the paint and they are expected to try and get the pace up. They mostly went over this margin, except in those two games with Turkey and Italy, in which one poor quarter cost them everything. In only one game (Latvia), they stayed at 56 points but scored 81 the very next day against the same team. In all the other games, they scored at least 63, including 67 and 63 against Serbia. Lithuania limited Belrus and Estonia under in test games, Turkey without Korkmaz t 58. With Korkmaz, Turkey scored 69. They conceded 80 to Germany, 82 to France, 76 and 89 against Latvia. Only Bosnia kept them under, mostly because the opponents played badly and scored only 19 points in the second half. This game should be more efficient and I think the odds under 1.10 at Lithuania are too low. The total over at Russia is the best choice. Details

This will not be a game of close opponents in my opinion. Greece are the favorite and will have massive fan support and they are also the better team than this Croatia. They crushed Italy and Serbia in test games and lost only to France. Croatia are here without the their top starting five that would probably make their the heaviest favorite for gold here. Like this, the medal will probably remain out of reach. The primary goal is to make it into quarterfinals. Kunce is faced with all kinds of problems and I don't think he can get the best out of this team. A lot will rely on Zubac, who should dominate in most of the game but today's match is one of those in which he shouldn't. Greece have brilliant center duo, the aggressive guards will create a lot of problems for Croatia when they try to organize the game and I expect that the Greeks will open the game with a win. Details

I don't see any reason for Lithuania to be such a heavy favorite. This Bosnian team could surprise many with players who lead them at last year's U18 championship where the beat the Turks, stood p to Greece and did very well overall. They are now a year older, with a few more good-quality players. It is therefore not surprising they are so optimistic about this. Their test games were not that good but the Championship itself is a totally different story. Lithuania didn't do brilliantly in preparation period either, far from it. They are lead by juniors from Zaligiris plus Sedekerskis. Zalgiris lost the Euroleague junior final two months ago to Spars, lead by Edin Atic. I think today will be similar and I would not be surprised by Bosnian win at all. Details

I wrote a similar bet a few days ago (margin was two points lower), and it passed easily. This match is the last one of the championship, and it's similar. I think the Italians will be motivated, they showed they're worth more in the last matches than what they showed in the first two stages. Especially the offense, they have a few great scorers. They scored 75 to Israel, 73 to Ukraine, with only 9 in the last period. Israel prefer faster game and the match against Germany at 100 points isn't a real image of their style. They secured the placement to top ten, and that should help them relax more, so I doubt they can leave the Italians under 70 points here. This option is better, I think, than the total over, because the Italians showed they can keep Israel off, they're playing good defense, and I wouldn't be surprised if they won convincingly. Details

I think the Spaniards have much better quality compared to the French and I think they are much heavier favorites than the odds suggest. They are undefeated this summer, having won all three preparation games and all 8 here. They did best here, together with Serbia, and no one managed to pose a threat against them. The French already lost two games here, one to the home team and the second on to Serbia, who crushed them, taking a 28-point lead at one point. They win here through defense and like that break the weaker opponents. Against better opponents, on the other hand, France's offensive shortcomings get very obvious. The Spaniards are most definitely stand up to them through defense, as well as rebounding and in the pain. They can even dominate those segments. They have better guards than France, who are weakened because Boutille got injured. Spain were better in the semis 68-59 two years ago and I think they are even better now, which is why I expect them to reach the final. Details

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If we only look at the average, Croatia's on the Championship is 134.5, Bulgaria's at 140.7 points per game. However, we should add that Croatia played all six games so far against defense-oriented opponents, whose strongest suit is that segment of the game. Today they are facing a physically much weaker opponent, who concede the most points on average on the Championship. The Bulgarians haven't managed to keep their opponents below 80 points even in the, result-wise, more important games, except for Greece who can't score over 60 points against anyone. However, against Israel, Latvia, Serbia and Russia, they went well above, but they stayed below against Great Britain yesterday because they could score for a good portion of the game (20% of shots after three quarters). Today's game has no significance and I expect everyone to play more relaxed. Bulgaria will hardly concede less than 80, and I don't believe that the Croats will be maximally concentrated on defense. Details

This Bosnian team cannot be such a heavy favorite here no matter the opponent. We have this margin only because of Poland's results in the first stage. But Poland recorded a win yesterday and will try their best today. They prefer teams over which they can dominate through defense. Bosnia played surprisingly good games against Italy and France but got faced with reality. A defeat to Slovenia hit them hard and I cannot expect their easy win here. They are not efficient enough to be able to crush anyone. They lost all four games of the preparation period and beat only Italy here (by 4 points). Both teams rely on 2-3 players and I expect this to be much closer than the odds suggest. Details

Greece put all of their faith in defense here, which is not surprising given the massive offensive limit. They never scored over 74 points in any of the games here or in the preparation period. In fact. they scored over 66 only once. At the same time, Greece often limited their opponents to around 60 points. The last game with Serbia didn't have any significance result-wise but Greece managed to force the slow pace anyway. It finished at 142 points only because of the 46 points from the final quarter and the fact both teams had 50% shooting from the floor. Serbia are the best team here offensively. Poland are the worst, but today's game is much more important. Poland rely on Witlinski entirely and Greece won't have problems stopping them. Poland proved they can be good in defense as well. Their game with Spain was not important either but still ended at 124 points. Poland didn't do much so far but this is a new beginning and I think they will fight the Greeks today. Numbers-wise, they are at 141 point per game but the average is boosted by that game with the Czechs. On the other hand, Greece are at 124.3 points. This game is like the one between Greece and Bulgaria. The Bulgarians are also quite bad in defense (second-worst here) and that game finished at 61-50. Details

Serbia impressed me with their game so far in this competition. Against Spain and at some points of the Turkey game proved to be one level above everyone else here. No one was a threat for Serbia as they won their games by an average of 25 points. They are particularly impressive in offense. Serbia scored 100 points against Israel and Bulgaria after struggling to adjust to soaring temperatures in the Latvia game. They finished Greece off with 80 points despite that being an irrelevant game for them. That was only a continuation of their preparation period performances in which they scored under this margin only against Lithuania (70, 43 in the first half) and over against everyone else. Djokic has a wide range of offensive solutions and who ever plays does his best. The Italians have so far conceded only 61 points per game but that is not the reflection of their potential. They are in a group with teams that are very limited in offense. They have not met a team like Serbia here, with such offensive power. The test games in which they conceded 84 to the Czechs and 78 to Turkey are very relevant for this meeting. They are short and far from teams like France, Spain and Greece in defense. I don't think they will be able to stop the Serbian offensive end and this margin is a few points too low. Details

This match, not important for its results, is a clash of the best and one of the worst teams of this championship. We have this margin because of Greek results, but this match can't be measured to the previous ones. Israel, Latvia, Bulgaria... All those were direct clashes for the second round against offensively much weaker teams than Serbia are. Today the story should be different. We are to expect a more relaxed, softer approach from both sides because for both of the teams important matches are yet to come. It's fascinating how easy Serbia pierced through Bulgarian and Israeli defenses. Djokic has great width at his disposal and today the offensive force of this team should become clear. Serbia dragged Bulgaria and Israel into a very fast pace with 70 shots from both sides, and the same thing should happen today considering that the match doesn't have a result significance. Serbia stayed below this margin only against Lithuania in the preparations (70-68), after achieving 43 scores in the first half. They played at 143 against Russia, and the others at 149 or more. They even dragged France in the final of the tournament in Turkey at 158. Today's match is characterized as friendly and I think they should go over 140 points with ease. Details

I have to say I was pretty surprised when I saw this margin because I didn't expect it to be over 130. Croatia played at 102 against Italy in the first round, 127 against France. They're not good offensively, and there aren't many players who can create any actions. On the other hand, BiH stayed at 110 against Belgium, 142 against Italy (with 50% from the field), and 117 against France last night. They are pretty limited offensively, but they make up for it with great defense who didn't concede over 69 points in three matches (63.3 per match). This match is a qualifying one for both teams, and whoever loses will hardly stay in the division, so I expect both teams to bunker up. Neither will rush into anything, so I think this bet has a pretty good value. Details

I burned myself on Bosnia and Herzegovina yesterday, but I can't miss this bet. I watched last night's game and I'm convinced that the Italians underestimated Bosnia and Herzegovina and defeated themselves. They played horribly for the most of the game, but in the moments when they pushed more in the defense, they left B&H without a chance and created great series (2nd and 4th period). Bosnia and Herzegovina had a great shooting night, they used the space left open by the Italians and they finished the game with 50% of the shots from the floor, and on this competition, only Israel managed to do the same in the first round against Bulgaria. However, the situation will be quite different today because Bosnia and Herzegovina are facing one of the best defenses in the competition, which leaves little room to their opponents, and this Bosnian team doesn't have many players capable to score under such pressure. France definitely won't underestimate Bosnia and Herzegovina after last night's game, they will go into the game maximally concentrated and firm and I expect their convincing win. Bosnia and Herzegovina played two games, there are no surprises and Toupane has seen that this team depends on Buza. They will set up aggressive defense on him, and without him Bosnia is practically left without a solution. Belgium showed that in the first round, they were well aware of Buza's abilities, they stopped him and left Bosnia and Herzegovina at 51 points. They should have won by more points than 8. France mostly demolished their offensively modest opponents in the preparation period (Slovenia 92-42, Germany 68-44 and 55-47, Greece 74-4 and 78-46), and all these teams are much better than Bosnia and Herzegovina. Last night's win didn't change my mind, it's still a very offensively limited team, they will hardly repeat such shooting night, especially because France will take them seriously. Bosnia and Herzegovina lost 25 balls last night, and I expect at least as much easy counterattack points tonight as well. The fact that this is the third game in as much days for Bosnia and Herzegovina also goes in favor of this bet, and they have the key game against Croatia tomorrow so Vidacic might sacrifice this match so that his team would be prepared for tomorrow's crucial game. Point difference is not important to them here and I expect demolition. For comparison, Bosnia and Herzegovina lost in the preparation period 91-63 against Serbia, who are, with France, one of the main title contenders. Details

Quality-wise, Bosnia and Herzegovina are undoubtedly among the two, three worst teams of the tournament. In the preparation period they lost by 28 points against Serbia, by 15 against Slovenia, and by 16 against Montenegro who are playing in the Division B. Yesterday's game simply confirmed all the problems. Belgium scored only two points in the third quarter, they lost that part of the game 17-2, but they still won by 8. They were in the lead by 18 already after 20 minutes (41-23) and if it weren't for the huge drop in the third period, they would have won by at least 15-20 point difference. Italy are a better team than Belgium, and they are playing at home with the support from the stands. They played with a cramp yesterday, they had to win the game against Croatia, but even under cramps they should have won more convincingly. Three of their leaders were below the right level, but the situation should be different today, especially because the opponent is much weaker. Italy forces Croatia to make 22 turnovers with their aggressive defense, and they should cause a lot of problems for Bosnia and Herzegovina with the pressure and score a lot of easy points. I expect them to have a big lead early on, and I'm not sure this Bosnia and Herzegovina's team will have the ability to compete with them and not sink. The quality difference, home court, everything is in the favor of the Italians and I expect them to win by at least 15-20 point difference. Details

I was hoping that the bookmakers would underestimate Belgium but Leomcte and co. got the well-deserved role of the favorite. However, this option has great value. First of all, this is basically the key game for both teams because the defeated today will almost certainly not reach the next round and in turn probably not stay in this division. Also, these teams are both primarily defense-oriented. This Bosnia do not have proper offensive solutions, which results in them trying to record good results through defense only. Montenegro limited them to under 50 points twice in preparation games and coach Vidacic admitted that they need to work hard for each and every point. Things will not be easy today either because Belgium are physically very powerful. Most of this team played the Division B U18 Championship two years ago where their defense was dominant and conceded over 60 points only once (only two games ended over this margin, one of which was the big win over Luxembourg). The key players were here in Sarajevo last season as well where they dominated through physical strength as well. Things should be the same today given the importance of the game and I don't think this will finish at over 140 points. Details

Limoges have the upper hand when it comes to everything and only them seriously underestimating the opponent or having a disastrous shooting can give Nancy a chance. Limoges were dominant in the first two games and Nancy are now without Falker and Sene, both of whom played in the first two. Duggins and Pietrus are out from before. Point guard Clark, shooter Gladyr and center Kikanovic are the players Nancy can rely on while the others play less important parts and don't add more than 3-4 points per game each. That is not enough against Limoges who have a lot more players on their disposal. They got better in playoffs and now seem like a team ready to fight Strasbourg for the title. Since their rival is already in the finals, Limoges want to get things done here as soon as possible, especially because Nancy could have some more players to count on in the games to come. They now miss some important players for the offensive end and even more importantly, Falker and Pietrus, the best defense and rebound duo in the league is out. No one at Limoges has played more than 22 three days ago while Clark, Kikanovic and Gladyr played well over 30. They are expected to spend even more time on the floor day maybe. Their energy level is questionable and if Limoges open this with a serious approach there should be no problems for them. Details