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Donati only started his season in March, but not because of an injury, but because the young Italian wanted to get ready as best as possible for the new season. He worked on his game, and even though it seemed like a dangerous decision at the time, it bore fruit. Indoor CH semifinal, a great match against Dancevic, and he got the best success of his career in Napoli. What matters, I think, is the way he got his wins against more experienced and renowned players. He beat the first seed Golubev, and Andrea Arnaboldi in the third set tie-break. He was losing with a set and a break to the Kazakh and a Top 100 player, but won. That shows his self-confidence and quality. Cecchinato didn't show he was untouchable, quite the contrary. He easily played the first round against an unworthy opponent, and then could have lost both matches that came after. Two duels against Quinzi and Zopp, which he won in the third set tie-break. Donati never looked better in his career, he already beat two names who are of the same quality as Cecchinati. Golubev is better, Arnaboldi a bit worse, so nothing can surprise Donati today. Considering this is the best tournament of his career, his self-confidence, I'm convinced Donati has a chance to win. I'll got with a safer pick, and a supply of three games on the younger Italian's side seems like a great bet. For those brave at heart, I recommend a win for a unit or two lower stake. Details

Granollers came to Casablanca last year with only one win in the previous 7 tournaments to reach the final. Things are pretty similar this year as well but we should cut him some slack as he didn't play on clay yet, which is his favorite surface. Betting on Granollers while he's on a 5-match losing run might be strange but the odds are almost equal here at Dzumhur who is a challenger-level player and who lost 4 times against Top 100 players (0-4). That can't be a coincidence. He is now set to face last season's finalist, who is not doing his best and who can only get better from now on. Dzumhur relies on running but so does Granollers. Anything Dzmhur can do, the Spaniards can do it better. Granollers has the upper hand in serving, a more diverse game and more attacking option. Mathieu, who is worse than Granollers, had 1.45 against Dzumhur. The odds are +1.80 at Granollers now and I cannot understand the logic behind them. I think this should be at 1.45 again but not because of Dzumhur - because of Granollers. These odds definitely have value in my opinion and I think Damir can win today. Details

I am following Almagro's matches since Golden Swing and I don't see any difference between this Almagro and the Top 20 Almagro in the last three or four weeks. Yesterday Taro stood firm, but when he lost the set, Almagro overwhelmed him with his aggressive tennis. The intensity which he has shown in that meeting was great on the side of the Spaniard, the game level too. He looked focused, good and motivated. What's better, we should expect him to get better and better from match to match. Berlocq is a player who, when wins, doesn't leave an impression on me. He used Carreno-Busta's nervousness, saved two match-points and won in the first round. When we dissect Almagro's and Berlocq's games, there not a single hit which is better with the Argentinian. He only has defense on his side, but I doubt Almagro will need the same. He will dominate this meeting with aggressive and firm hits from both sides, and if it's going to be an OK day for serves, I doubt Berlocq will have a lot of chances on the return. This is a match which will be decided by Almagro, his day, his level and his intensity, and Berlocq will rely on work and rushing. Considering that Almagro is very focused and eager to play and return after his injury, I doubt he will underestimate his opponents. Berlocq will raise his focus and I think Nico will win smoothly in two sets. Minimum with one break per set. Details

This is De Greef's first ATP match in his career. That's no coincidence. We're talking about a boy who's fighting for his spot under the sun on the CH level on which he has a negative record (16-24). I had a chance to see a couple of his matches. I saw him two weeks ago live in Istra where he lost to Bellotti. He's main "thing" is aggressiveness, but he can't keep it for a long time. He often makes errors from the third or fourth aggressive shot, and he's not someone who could physically "grind". Because of that the Belgian was never among Top 200, and I think Schwartzman is the worst possible roster he could have gotten. Last year the Argentinian won the final Masters of the best CH players, and he's slowly stabilizing as an ATP player. His game is consistent, stable, without a lot of ups and downs. De Greef can't pierce Schwartzman's defense and here I see the Argentinian's clear win who is at least one or two steps above De Greef. Except for dominating somewhat stronger challenger players than the Belgian last year, the Argentinian showed his quality against ATP names this season as well. Arthur also yesterday saved the 0-4 in the third set against Giustin and I think he doesn't stand a chance to take more than five games against Schwartzman who is an ATP name; some don't realize it yet. De Greef is first and foremost a futures players, and the stable and always motivated Schwartzman shouldn't have a lot of problems here. This is his first ATP season, and with this roster he should be satisfied on the CH level, especially here. Details

Hats off to McGee for what he's done here in San Luis, but I think Pella will beat him. That's because Pella's playing really well. He only had problems against the first seed Gabashvili where he lost a set, but he crushed Garza, Krajicek, and even Duckworth who's playing the best tennis of his career. Even his results in the previous tournaments were great. McGee played the last two matches well, but also had luck in the first two rounds. Džumhur played awfully, and Clezar was leading 4-0 in the third set and then lost. McGee definitely didn't play bad, but Pella was just playing better, he showed better tennis. And after all, Pella's a typical clay player who was in Top 100.
He played an awful season last year, and then took a title in Lima. On the other hand, this is McGee's first challenger final, and that's another advantage for Pella. Also, The Irish's got only five clay challenger wins before Mexico, and that's not a coincidence. Pella was beat by McGee in last year's Roland Garros qualifiers, but after that match, the Argentinian took a two-months break to decide whether he'll continue playing tennis or give up because of his depression. He admitted it openly, and then managed to get motivated for the rest of the season. McGee is a decent player, but not a Top 100 material. Pella was there, Pella's got 6-1 in challenger tournaments' finals, and when he's playing well and confident, than he's the favorite no matter how McGee plays. Especially on clay. Details

Monteiro is a player with a relatively bad ranking, but that doesn't mean he's a bad player. He was crushing it in the challenger qualifiers in 2013, and got 12 wins in a span of two-three months. He was getting better, which should have culminated in 2014, if not for an injury. He played last season, but just wasn't up to it physically. Now, in 2015, he showed why he made us all think he's a good player in 2013. He lost in the third round of his first challenger qualifiers, but that was against Hernandez who plays the best tennis of his career. He played ATP qualifiers later, and lost to Ghem who had over 30 challenger wins last year, De Bakker who kills it in tournaments like those, and Maxim Gonzalez, where Monteiro managed to take a set. Those three defeats in a row were a bit expected, but he left a good impression in each one. He almost got to the main lot of the fourth ATP tournament , but got eliminated in the third round in three sets, against Bagnis, and defeated Pella and Quinzi before that. Like I said, the Brazilian is worth a lot more than his current ranking. He's got a typical clay streak in his game, and can make any opponent get tired here. His serves and hits can punish shallow game and passivity. He'll be a Top 200 player this year or the next. He's a better player than his opponent today, younger, with a brighter future, better game, and since this is played on clay, he's a favorite.
O'brien is a futures player, and I don't think he's got a bright future. He never got to Top 500, and only has 2-4 on this level. His ratio of wins and defeats is negative even in the futures, and that says it all. He easily got eliminated in the qualifications of both challengers he played, and got defeated in the first round of the futures, as well. A disastrous beginning of the season, but realistic, considering his abilities. Just this description of O'brien is enough for this bet, but what tops it all is that he's not even a clay player. He's got 0-2 on clay on this level, 2-5 on the futures. Monteiro loves clay, O'brien concrete, and in a state like this, in these conditions, I'd be really surprised if O'brien took a set here. He couldn't against players much weaker than Monteiro. Details