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When he is playing his best tennis, or close to it, Bagnis looks like a solid Top 100 player. He struggles mentally with matches in which he is favored to win, which reminds me a lot of Delbonis from 3-4 years ago. But, as I said, when he has his game on, Bagnis has one of the highest performance ceilings at this level of the game. He easily beat Ghem, who had over 30 challenger wins last year, while yesterday he routinely dismantled Montanes. I would not give Haider-Maurer this much advantage today in any case. Bagnis can parry him in game terms, and I see this more as a match of equals than a favored outcome for anyone. What I'm sure of is that Facundo reacts much better as an outsider than when favored and expected to win. As I said, this is closer to an equal match than Haider-Maurer being this favored. For those willing to take it, I can also recommend Bagnis taking a set at @1,74 at SBO, but this bet also covers Bagnis losing in two sets, while the over might still go through. The limits for O/U are also higher than for the +1.5 set handicap. Details

Sweeting played only two matches in the last 20 months. His back problems stopped him and he lost those two matches easily. First one to Marcora, who is a clay-specialist after winning only 3 games in the whole match, and the second one against the 1725th player in the ATP rankings. Sweeting said he's need weeks to get his game better, later pulled out of the next tournaments and should have been here either, according to some reports. Meister is better than Marcora on hard court and definitely better than Bazrganin. Nicolas may not be a brilliant player, but this is a bet against Sweeting. Meister is definitely better than both of the players Sweeting couldn't get a single set against. Details

Genie is the favorite, that I agree with, but I don't think she will destroy Garcia. Garcia is aggressive, with powerful shots, and follows her shots through. She had 33/35 in first service yesterday and added 11 aces. More importantly, her good performance doesn't last for one match. Bouchard was not faced with a proper opponent before AO. I saw her match with Friedsam and she didn't impress me. She went on to met poor-performing Bertens and lost to service games in the second set. Their head to head from last season is another reason for this - 2014 was the most successful season for Genie and Garcia managed to beat her in three sets in Acapulco (hard court). Also, Garcia's trainer is Bouchard's former trainer. I think the match will be much closer than the odds suggest. Garcia always depends on her own performances, Bouchard is not convincing. Garcia impressed with her attacking game and has what it takes to hard Bouchard. I don't think Garcia will lose convincingly. Details

Brengle is very confident. She's playing the best tennis of her career, and she saved 6-7 3-5 against Petkovi. Her attitude, and body language show her confidence. Her game is brave, and her results aren't a fluke. She's firm and consistent in rallies, doesn't risk much, but also doesn't make many errors. While she's playing the best tennis of her life, Falconi didn't show anything in the last three years. If you're wondering how she defeated Kanepi, you should thank Kanepi. While the Estonian played well, she lead 6-2 1-0 and served. After that, you couldn't even call that playing. She made many errors, and the worst part, there was none of her aggressiveness to be seen in her hits. I base this pick on Brengle's form and game style. She can score a winner, but doesn't risk much, and she's firm and stable, hits the ball at the right time, and Falconi will hardly make her make a wrong move. Still, when Irina sends a shallower ball, she'll know how to punish it, and can do it from both sides. Falconi's primary role is defensive, and playing lots of rallies - Bregnle's got advantage there, too. She's more stable and her hits are firmer. Brengle is invincible for players like Falconi this season, who can only hope for her opponent's bad day. How can you expect a bad day from someone who's playing the best tennis of their lives? They faced each other two weeks ago, and Falconi only got two games. Details

Dodig might have defeated Souza in three sets, but that's thanks to the Brazilian who showed once again that his head is not ready for bigger things. He's got the game all right, but his head is as if he's a futures player. How else to explain being in the lead in a double break in the second set, and from 5-2 lose 5-7. Ivan struggled in the rallies against Souza, and his serve was unrecognizably mediocre. It's really weird because Souza's return isn't anything special. The dry result suggests a good win, but the overall impression not so much. Add to that that Dodig was losing 15-40 during the match-serve, and asked for a medical time-out because of his leg, then you can see there's something wrong with his game. Realistically, he should have lost the second set, he saved four set-balls in two different games. He didn't move well in the third, his serve wasn't good either. Nishikori defeated Almagro who got out to the court with an attitude to hit, because that was all he could. The Japanese's attitude there was important. As usual, he caught the balls early, and took Almagro's time, and I expect him to do the same today, and that will be a problem for the Croat. If Souza was normal, he'd have used that, and Nishikori will definitely charge the weak movements. Not to talk about the mental aspect, his return which is one of the best on the Tour, and we can see that Dodig will have a hard time today. Details

I simply cannot see this match ending as a one-sided win. I think Chardy will win, but I don't expect it to happen in straight sets. Seppi is great at forcing five sets in matches like this one. He's played staggering 26 five-set matches in his carrier. His AO opener ended in give sets. I'm counting on this over to be successful even in 4 'normal' sets and I don't think it's possible either player will win in straight sets. Seppi is said to be one of the tallest players with the poorest serving and that's true, but the Italian has worked on his first service a lot and that bore fruit since he won a lot of first service points this season. Chardy is known for playing tough matches too, which his match with Coric proved (finished over this margin by 3 games in 4 sets). I expect something similar to happen today. Seppi can play brilliantly and then horribly. Just like Chardy. Whether this match is tough or ripe with ups and downs is irrelavant, I expect at least 4 sets and an over. Details

When they asked Panova if she has the game to threaten Sharapova after she faced Cirstea, she didn't say anything, just shook her head. She knows herself they'll only ask Masha about the result today. Maria crushes anyone when she can. She played worse yesterday than she did in the first rounds of Brisbane, and then covered the margin. I expect her to play better today. The first round of any new tournament is always tricky, but that's behind her now. Panova defeated Cirstea who gave up from the initial two tournaments of the season because of her shoulder injury, but came here because this is the Australian Open. Alexandra didn't serve like she can against the Romanian player after the tricky first set, and she didn't hit like she can, all because of her shoulder, and she won the second set convincingly because Cirstea decided to forfeit the match. But, even the little Cirstea played aggressively, you could see how many problems Panova had in moving. Today, she'll have to receive constant hits, and those problems will show. She can't be physically stronger than Sharapova, and she can't run for three strong hits. Also, she's playing on Rod Laver arena, for the first time in her life, and I think Maria will stay within this margin with a decent game. Details

I already wrote on tip on Dodig this season, it was also a handicap, but against Berrer in Doha. Let me just repeat some things I said back then. Dodig had a horrible 2014 caused by back injury struggles. He didn't play for 3 months and the only thing I managed to detect in the first few matches of the season is that the back problems are a thing of the past. Like that, Dodig is a Top 50 player and I have no doubt that is where he'll finish at season's end. He lost only 4 service points against Safwat, beat Berrer easily and lost the Seppi. But, he's never done well against Seppi. His level in Doha was good and he wants to start recording good results to forget about the bad 2014. He's trying and what I like most about him, always tries his absolute best. He's not underestimating anyone and that is the key reason I believe in his win today.
I saw Souza in some 20 matches last season, and the Croat is definitely better quality. He will have less break opportunities than Dodig. It's possible he'll be close in one set, but he 'crazy' and doesn't have consistency at all. When Dodig breaks his spirit, things will be settles. Dodig is better in al aspects of the game and always does better on this surface. I'm sure the handicap will be covered even if Dodig loses a set, but I think he won't. For those of you not into handicaps, a normal win at Dodig is for 7-8/10 in my opinion. Details

Sharapova started the season strongly, left Shvedova, Suarez-Navarro, and Svitolina under this margin in Brisbane. She only had problems in the finals, but that was expected. She said herself that she was lucky she didn't have a tougher match, because she needed it. Unlike last year, when her season started doubtful after coming back from a shoulder injury, there are no doubts now. Masha is going for the title, she's feeling very self-confident, and she's a player who, when she can crush someone, she will. Martić, on the other hand, has been going down for the last two seasons. She's close to top 50 at one moment, and the next, she can't even get a WTA win for a year. No sense talking about her shameful defeats, there are plenty. Suffice it to say that she's barely in the Top 200. An injury and a lack of self-confidence did what they did. She passed the qualifiers, but that can't erase the two years of struggle. Regardless, even if her results were 40%-50% better than in the last two years, I'd still pick Sharapova's under on this margin. Maria left her under this margin in 2011, when Petra played fantastic tennis compared to what she's been playing in the last two years. Details

I won't tell you that Panova is a better player than Cirstea, since she's not. However, there are some important issues to consider here. Most importantly, the shoulder injury the Romanian suffered. At the end of an already disastrous season that brought her from the Top 30 to barely within the Top 100, Cirstea injured her shoulder. She spent a long time in recovery, but things did not go as planned. She had to cancel her first two tournament appearances at Shenzen and Sydney. The Romanian media also reported her Fed Cup captain saying they're preparing for the February match without her, as he shoulder is still sore. This is the Australian Open after all, so she will play, but it seems she's far from fit. Even with no pains, she still lacks matches played after her recovery, and the question remains how hard she trained in the preseason if she was not able to play a single tournament. Panova played three matches in the qualifications, felt the surface and this is a major advantage for her. Considering all the negativity surrounding Cirstea, entering the tournament without a single match played prior to it, statements how her shoulder is still sore, and previous cancellations, in my opinion Panova cannot be an underdog in this match. Details

Personally I like Dimitrov as a player, and would always pay to watch him. Here he is once again favored to win. However, Brown is the one I like to pick in these situations, a player who can make any match a thriller, and is now ideally positioned for that. He is an absolute underdog here against a player hoping for a Grand Slam this or next year, has nothing to lose and he always does his best in such matches, which is to complicate life or top players. He is labeled as a loser and player with lots of ups and downs. However, those always occur when he is favored and expected to perform at a challenger level. In situation such as the one we have here he is always relaxed. His game, based on good serves, frequent charges forward and aggression is a basis for a counterhandicap. We should also note several players pointed out that this year the surface at the Australian Open is even quicker, which cannot harm this bet. This counterhandicap would go through even with a honorable defeat, such as a routine 6-4 6-4 6-3 outcome, and Brown is not the kind of player to often lose sets with 6-1 or 6-2. Regardless of that, I believe the German can scratch something together, no matter how unrealistic that might sound, and could even get a set or two to a tie-break. If that would to happen, nobody could call it a major surprise. Details

Marti did his job superbly yesterday and won convincingly once again. His last three opponents won only 8 games combined. His good performances continued throughout the week, and what's important, he won most of the close games and I think he's headed back into Top 200. I wanted Rufin to win the match against Ouahab, because that would make him the favorite in the match with Marti, and Marti would beat Rufin. After taking the first set and 2-2 in the second set, the Frenchman who knocked out first seed here went on to win a single game till the end. It was as if though he left his body. There was no stability, no attacking or anything else he did so well throughout the week. Ouahab used it to get past him for his 7th challenger finals. The Moroccan recorded 3 challenger wins the last three seasons, taking his last title in 2006. Marti is only 23 and expected to make great progress in the next few years. I think he's the better player in almost every aspect of the game, which I think will be enough for another win. Just like yesterday, for those not willing to take the handicap, a sure win for Marti makes a great combination ticket material. Details

Though I was a bit of a skeptic when young Marti started here in Casablanca due to his lack of matches, it was clear he has the goods right away. I ignored the win against Ramirez-Hidalgo as a familiar opponent, i did the same for Silva as the opponent was just 19, but after he beat the awakened Teixeira I could no longer ignore him. He seems impervious in rallies, tough and rarely making errors, and has an offensive edge too. The tough defense is what impressed me and should get him the win against Djere. In the preview I said that of the four guys in the semifinal, two qualifiers, an invited player and one with protected ranking, only Djere is a surprise, with no challenger wins and one such match up to now. The fact he has only one challenger match is not an accident, though it's nto the basis for my pick. The present score says he beat Gimen from the wrong side of a break in the third set, defeated Škugor who had 2/14 in break points, and Serra who deflated after the first set. These were not gifts, as Djere showed maturity, but my impression definitely favors Marti, who was untouchable on his path to the semifinal while Djere dangled on the edge of defeat from time to time. Ignoring Casablanca and looking at the players alone, the Spaniard is again ahead. Were it not for the 13 month break and few more on-and-off-court months, he would be a Top 200, consistent challenger player with an upward tendency, and the same break makes him very hungry for wins. A point against Teixeira, in which he raged over a missed shot while leading by a huge margin proves it best. He is driven, impervious on returns and attacks well, and I believe he will win here in two sets. For those who dislike the risk of handicaps, a clear win for Marti is a 7/10 for me. Details

Karlovic left Djokovic, probably the best player in the world when it comes to game against opponents' service, without a break-point. Novak had deuce only once in the entire match. That happens when you play Karlovic. He is facing David Ferrer now, who is also regarded as good at return. But hitting back at service that has the speed of 200km/h is extremely tough. Karlovic's services are very powerful and when the opponent hits the ball back, he uses his great forehand shots to attack. His forehand is one of the best ones in the world. That is precisely what made Djokovic very insecure from the start. Karlovic had three break points in three different games against the top player, which is why I'm going with +3 at Karlovic, and not total games over. I don't see how Ferrer will be able to win a break if Karlovic's performances resembles the one from yesterday even a little bit. No one is able to cope with those kind of services and Karlovic always puts pressure on opponents' service in one or two games. The opponents know that losing a service game means losing the set and that is the mind game not many are able to handle. What I'm trying to say is that I'm more confident about Karlovic winning his service games than in Ferrer winning his. Details

The most important thing regarding Dodig is his back. Judging by the first round, things are good and he's healthy. After the initial 3-3 in the first set of the opening match, he went on to lose only one more game. Service was his best weapon once again, but Safwat was not the kind of opponent that can tell us how good Dodig is doing. Be that as it may, Dodig played a good match, which was not the case last season when he struggled with back injury. Like this, Dodig is set to get back in the Top 50. Berrer stunned Nadal in the first round. The Spaniard didn't play well, but Berrer had the mental strength in the third set. As I already said, qualifying matches are not giving Berrer the upper hand. On the contrary, it drains him of the little energy he has. The more matches he plays, the worse it gets. Dodig, on the other hand, wants to play as many matches as possible after 2014 that was not very good. I think Dodig is the better player and I wanted Berrer to beat Nadal in order to get good odds here. I think he's the favorite here to a greater extent than the odds would suggest, despite Berrer beating Nadal yesterday. I don't think that will help him much today since he's more tired each next match. Details

When it comes to Karlovic, this is a bet to go with. Those kind of bets are successful most of the time, especially when he's playing opponents like Rosol. The Czech is aggressive and that's all he has. Karlovic is not good against opponents' services but things are quite straightforward with him. I expect both of them to win their service games easily. The stats from their two head-to-head games only support it. Karlovic won both, but three out of four sets ended in tie-breaks. Only one player won a single break in 35 games. Both two first sets ended as tie-breaks. Details

Haider-Maurer is completely uninspired. He's the type of player who embarrasses himself when it's not his day. Yesterday he looked completely uninterested in the second set. And what he was doing in the last three games is his typical, unsportsmanlike conduct. What's most important is that he's lost his chances for the semi-finals. No theory can bring him back to life. Gonzalez, on the other hand, has a lot more motives going on, and he's shown better game in the first two rounds. Besides winning against Estrella smoothly, yesterday he gave Bolelli quite a beating, although he's still among my favorites to win the title. Gonzalez is pumped, he's playing well "on the inside". A lot better than Haider-Maurer. I should point out that Gonzalez depends solely on himself. His 2-0 win got him into the semi-finals despite the fact how the match between Bolelli and Estrella goes. Besides the semi-finals, the win would bring him into the Top 100 and the main draw of Australian Open. There's no doubt that the Argentinian, who was a lot better in the first two rounds, has bigger motivation and is the favorite against Haider-Maurer. And while yesterday Anreas might have had a shot at the semi-finals, today it's gone. He's not the type of a player who does it for the audience or himself, and that's visible. He was only waiting for the match to end. Today he has no inspiration whatsoever. Details

The first thing I thought when seeing the competition here is that Bolelli should claim the title since he's definitely the best player here. But, I didn't want to bet on him yesterday since two of his head-to-head matches with Haider-Mauer ended in three sets, and he lost one. What if suspected will happen, did happen. I think these are the perfect conditions for the Italian. He prefers clay feels best on clay, but his performances are far from typical clay-game here. Bolelli is a great server that often sees him dominate the points and rarely loses his service games. All that is a result of his game, which is not defensive in style. He won the challenger in Bergamo, played five sets against Nishikori in Wimbledon. What can be better for him than a clay surface court that suits aggressive players? Nothing, as he proved yesterday. He lost only one of his first service points yesterday and didn't allow the opponent a single break-point. Haider-Maurer didn't get a chance to play because Bolelli didn't allow it. Everything will come down to Bolelli today. He is completely focused on this tournament and the Top 50, which would be the greatest achievement of his carrier. Only 5 defeats he recorded this season suggest he's the better player and won't be playing much more challengers after this. He's ATP material and that shows on the court. The only thing that can make this pick unsuccessful is Bolelli himself. But that is the risk I'm willing to take. Details

I think Estrella is, next to Clezar, the worst player on this tournament. Estrella is very passive, he practically doesn't try anything with the ball. I'm trying to find the right word for him - MILD. Today he's up against a much aggressive player than his last opponent, Gonzalez, was. I can't see him posing his game against Haider-Maurer. This is a completely different matchup in which everything will be on Haider-Maurer's racket. The smooth defeat by Bolelli doesn't change a thing. Haider-Maurer is a good player who will know how to punish Estrella's passivity. There's no way that Estrella will be able to press him on the defensive part unlike Bolelli. He doesn't have the philosophy, nor weapon range. Haider-Maurer is a better player than Gonzalez and Estrella, according to my opinion. Especially in such fast conditions. Details