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Roma definitely failed in the first part of the championship and they're only the 14th on the league table. They show their quality in the Eurocup where they easily won the group before Oldenburg, Nymburk, Sevilla, Nancy... it proves they can play well, and today, they should finally get that win because it's an ideal chance. Bologna are the youngest team of the league and really depend on the captain Ray. His 17 points per match, and the leadership, are of immense importance. He's out today, as is the young Fontecchi, and they're the starting backs who can't be substituted properly. Portannese is also out, so there's a big hole Roma have to use. I don't see how Bologna can keep this under 10 points difference. The stakes are lower than they should be only because of Roma's weaker form. Details

Avelino are ranked 7th and Cremona are 8th. This is a very important match as it secures the Cup, and the position will be important too, in order to avoid Milano, who will probably stay in the lead over the next two rounds. Both teams focus on defense, with Cremona conceding 73 and Avelino allowing 74 per game, and are among the best defenses in the league. Although playing under in this game seems to be a good idea, I think a team under on Cremona is better. They scored 61,76, 87, 64, 73, 71 at home, while Avelino conceded 74, 67, 81 (Sassari), 77, 61, 91 (blowout against Caserta). All points towards a tough game where teams should stay at around 70ish points. Details

I don't usually prefer handicaps such as this one but there are some situations that demand going with them and I think this situation is one of them. Sassari are getting better, have recorded two wins, while Caserta do what they do best - changing coaches and players and I don't think they stand a chance today, first and foremost because their top player and scorer Young (averaging almost 22 points) got injured. They have not won a single game so far, they're one of the least productive teams in the league and I don't see a way for them to stand up to Sassari, the team that's scoring 14 points more on average. Caserta lost to Avelino by 14 points home last round. Avelino lost to Sassari by 6. Sassari beat Reggiana by 13 points last round, meaning Casterta should be left some 20 or more points down, Details

Pesaro lose by 25 per game, while Venezia are a leading team with only one defeat, against Milano. That fact alone shows the direction of this pick, and the game. Pesaro struggled to defeat Orlando and Roma, and today, the big problem will be that Ross isn't ready, but will probably play, while they won't take chances with Myles. Without those two, Pesaro have no solutions in the offense, and Venezia are too experienced not to use that and keep the leading place of the league. Defense is Venezia's big weapon, and Pesaro should face a wall today. Details

Reggiana and Roma will be fighting to get the best positions possible for the playoffs. There won't be lack of tension today, Reggio want to win at home, and Roma want to get a positive ratio. Roma are surprising this season, they brought the right reinforcements, and have 5-1 in the Eurocup. They really strong physically and base everything on the defense. Reggio are more defensively oriented and their lack of rotation isn't a plus when it comes to offense. The defenses should dominate today and considering the margin, which I don't think has a base, I see both teams under 80 points. Reggio score 79 per game, and Roma concede 76, so statistically, this pick has a big value. Even the total under is a good option, so it can serve as an alternative. Details

Avellino and Reggiana both beat Milano last two rounds and now face each other. It's more than obvious both teams are bursting with confidence, Avellino especially. Reggiana struggle with injuries, have short roster, and some of their game are a real surprise. They are playing two competitions, but some of their games are more efficient even tough Menetti focuses on defense. They are very adaptable - when the opponent runs, Reggiana run as well. Avellino will not run today, they're 5 unders in 5 games at this margin. Reggiana went to over with Varese and Pesara, while two other games ended in under. I don't understand this margin, it's more than clear that both teams base their games on defense. On top of that, Reggiana have short roster, both teams are motivated and this should not get close to 150 points. Details

Each next game and especially home games in Group A will be extremely important for the clubs hoping to get through to the next round. Both Zaragoza and Reggiana are on a 1-2 record, which is important. Their defenses should be the decisive game segment today. Only Bonn managed to get Zaragoza to play a game with a lot of points, but the Germans' style does that to every opponent. It was the only game for Zaragoza over this margin. They conceded 63 and 69 in their last two league game. Reggiana are known for great and aggressive defense as of last season and duo to all the injures they are currently struggling with, good defense is the only way for them to win. With Silins and Diener out, the offense is weakened and on top of that, Della Valle might miss the Zaragoza game as well. Taylor joining did little to help the offense, he is much better in defense tasks. With only 7 players to count on, Reggiana cannot go for a fast pace game with a lot of points scored. They would be happy with the kind of game they did with Strasbourg, which ended at 59-66. Everything up to 150 points here has value. Details

Cremona and Orlando don't deserve this margin as their previous duels lean towards lower scores. Cremona have one of the best defenses in the league, allowing 71 points on average, and score the same on offense. Facing them are Orlando, a team I've already written about. They've got an experienced team, with Nicević (34) and Basile (39) playing a lot on their team. They also have a strong defense, their opponents averaging just 73 points, and they score 70. It's clear both teams see their chance here, and with the lower pace Orlando will look for and Cremona allow, I don't see this over 150. An added bonus for this bet is the arrival of Cusin to Cremona, whose defensive presence definitely works in our favor. Details

Bologna and Caserta are two teams who currently can't boast with good offensive solutions. Bologna are an extremely young team and that is their biggest problem, while Caserta haven't found the right rhythm and shape to be on the real level. The defenses are another story because both teams have Americans who are bursting with athleticism and next to such players it's never easy to screw up. Caserta is especially showing off defensively, and they will be fully focused on it as they were last season. In the first two rounds they were under 70 points offensively, and they allowed their opponents somewhat more because of which they have two defeats. Those matches ended with 147 and 137 points, while Bologna remained at 143 with Orlando, and we shouldn't even consider the one with Sassari. Last season their mutual matches ended with 122 and 140 points, and I expect the same scenario today. Details

Orlando are a team with lots of experienced players, but look who their main players are. Considering the first point guard Flynn is missing, Basile will get lots of minutes today. He's a legend of Italian basketball who's 39 years old and definitely won't run around a lot. Nicević will get lots of minutes, too. He's 34 year old, so it's clear Orlando will be the team with a small number of offenses. Their first two games ended at 145 and 143 with Flynn who likes to run. On the other side is Roma who will focus on defense with Dalmonte. Their games confirm that, 137 against Caserta and 141 against Venezia. The margin is definitely wrong, and you should expect a basketball played from positions with a small number of points. Details

Although Cantu put the team together for defensive strength, they still seem terrible. Even coach Sacripanti states they have a lot of work to do in that segment, as they just are not organized on defense and it all looks very bad. First Carese scored 93 against them and then Gran Canaria followed up with 101. Those are huge numbers and they will have to reduce them, but good defense does not come overnight. They will be facing Avellino today, a team with offensively potent players. They have Banks, Hanga, Gaines and Anosike, and will be getting Cadougan today, which is only a bonus on the offense. Venice slowed them down in the last round, but with Johnson-Odom Cantu likes to build up a rhythm the away, which the away team can still follow. Away team over is also a good option, but we'll take the widely available margin of overall over. Details

We'll dismiss the first match Bologna played as that was an away against Sassari, a team nobody can slow down, which is why they lost, unable to follow them. The only thing the coach spoke about for this game was defense, as Orlando are their direct competitors in avoiding relegation. The home team have the youngest team in the league and will make quite a few mistakes before they start improving. The away crew on the other hand are some of the most experienced in the league, with Nicević and Basiel playing a lot and simply unable to keep up with a strong pace. They are quite focused on defense as well, so they played a 145 pts match against the relatively quick Pistoia. There is no real reason why the margin is set so high today, and with two teams in direct competition to get off the bottom spot this definitely won't be a pretty match. Details

Banchi can't count on a lot of efficient forwards this early in the season. Brooks is still out of his depth when it comes to European matches, Gentile is just starting do well, which made Kleiza the top scorer on the team. He played both Supercup games, recording 17 points. He did 22 minutes against Cremona and scored 13 points. The margin is now only 11,5. The reason for this is his last season, but he will get better offense-wise at Milano. Another reason for this bet is Melli, who is still far from his best performances, which will give Kleiza his 30 minutes in the game. Milano won't stand a chance if he's not efficient tonight. I think this margin is off by 2-3 points. Details

Russia still haven't won after two matches played. The Swiss shocked them in the first round, and then they dropped a 10 point lead at home against Italy. They admitted the Swiss surprised them, and it was clear that the fact they chalked that game off as a win in advance rebounded at them. They lost the first position and now must look to get to the Eurobasket among the seven second ranked teams. A tough but achievable task. The first step would be to beat Switzerland and rack up the scoring ratio. Luckily for them, there should be no problems there as the Swiss lost their best two players, NBA center Capela and power forward Brunner. The two were the main names of the earlier victory with a combined 26 points and 10 rebounds. Their center lineup is very thin now, and the Russians have a huge advantage under the rim in Mozgov. Italy beat Switzerland in rebounding by 12 rebounds, and Russia in turn beat Italy by 10. This makes it clear that a victory towards 30 points should be imminent today. Details

The first game went completely different than expected. Siena entered the game softly and Reggiana took advantage of that and got a huge lead. This forced Siena into a higher gear and trace back, which resulted in a 167-point game. As I said in the previous tip, Siena with 70,5 ppg Reggiana with 74.5 ppg are the first and fourth best defenses in the league, respectively, and their first two H2H's ended at 128 and 120 points. This will be a battle for ever ball, with lots of physical contact and tensions. The margin has been increased since the first game and I will take it as the first game was not a good indicator. Details

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The games played yesterday have shown a clear difference between regular season and the playoffs. The intensity was higher and Sassari played a 148-point game. I expect the same thing today, especially between Siena and Reggio. This is a clash of the first (Siena 70.5 ppg) and the fourth (Reggiana 74.5 ppg) defense in the league and it's clear this aspect should prevail today. The first two head-to-heads ended with 128 and 120 points, and today's margin is a must-take. The statements from both camps reflect that this will be a battle for every ball, with lots of physical contact and tensions. Even though the 148-point margin is available on several locations, I will assume that a low-scoring game has some chance of going into overtime, and the margin of 146.5 points still has certain value and is definitely worth taking. Details

Reggiana had only two away wins, but today absolutely everything is in their favor: motive, quality, form. They must get a win today and hope for Roma to lose so they can get the sixth spot before the playoff. More importantly, they need an away win to enter that playoff with more confidence. They've proven they can play away games in the important away bout in the Eurochallenge, and I believe they will today as well. Avellino have no imperative to win, but are also missing Hayes, Ivanov and Spinelli. The biggest issue is Ivanov missing, as he is their best player, second best scorer and best in rebounds. Hayes is also extremely important on both ends, and they have no way to replace them. Reggiana won 96-73 the first time these two met, and I expect them to win this as well. Details

Avellino's chances are hanging by a thread and Milano is about to cut that thread. The first game showed just how big the difference between the two clubs is. Avellino simply have no solution for Milano's aggressive defense and they are physically inferior in the paint. Avellino have won only one game in last 8, they've lost all away games and got only 1 win at home. The defeats they suffered at home were quite convincing: Cantu -18, Sassari -7, Bologna -8. Milano are better than all those teams, their motivation is high as a win would secure the top spot for the playoffs. They flopped in Tel Aviv and they said farewell to Euroleague. A win ahead of the game against Sassari this weekend is an imperative and they will win this by over 10 points in any normal circumstances. Details