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After one of their worst games this season, Milano are on the verge of elimination which would cost them "their" Final Four in Milano. Everything went wrong, from defense to offense and they suffered a convincing defeat. They are aware they have no margin for error and are announcing a much more aggressive approach. There will be no risky shots like in the last game, which means longer attacks and less chances for Maccabi. Maccabi scored 75 points in one such game and I see no logic how they can score 80 today in the most important game of the series. In last four games, they stayed under this margin in front of their fans in the Euroleague and I see no reason for things not to go that way as well. The margin is already dropping... Details

We have a clash of teams with different goals and more importantly, huge difference in quality. Reggiana still haven't secured the playoffs due to their poor away form (2-11). On the other hand, they are practically invincible at home as only Milano and Varese have managed to beat them there. They have been superb in their last two games and they crushed teams like Sassari (+10) and Roma (+13). Menetti has announced that there will be no lax attitude today and they are going into this game carefully and with a win in their mind. They have beaten Pesaro away by +33 and this says a lot about the difference in quality. Pesaro are fighting for their life but they are aware their chances are minimal. They have lost last 7 away games (-31 against Milano, -11 against Roma, -24 against Siena, -10 against Caserta, -24 against Venezia, -10 against Bologna), which means no defeat was under 10 points, and unlike some of these teams, Reggiana are a machine that grinds and just doesn't quit. Considering the first game and the fact that Pesaro are the worst defense in away games (91.4), and Reggiana among the best teams, this margin is definitely worth taking. Details

This margin has been completely missed and it was obviously affected by the first game in which Montegranaro won by 80-76. It was one of the rare blunders for Brindisi at home and they will want to get their vengeance. In addition, there are not too many games left to play and ever win counts in the battle to stay at the top. Montegranare have changed much of their team since that win, that is, they lost two of their best players Mayo and Skeene and they scored 37 points between themselves in that game, while the whole team did great from the 3-point line. Today, their only asset is Cinciarini and Brindisi's great defense will stop him today. If they manage to do so, Brindisi will win this with ease as they are the better team in every segment. Details

Bologna ended their row of defeats with a big win against Brindisi, and the key was in the defense. When coach Bali came, he slowed their game down, brought defensively oriented players, and when they play defense, they have a chance. You can see it from the last matches when the regular part against Roma ended with 146 points, against Reggiana at 141, and now against Brindisi at 145. Now, Caserta are coming, and they showed what's perhaps the best defense of the league in the last matches. Their self-confidence is boosted, and they play that segment great, and they play the offense smart. This is an important match for both teams, the first one ended at 124 points, and it's obvious the margin we have today is overestimated, and should be used. Details

Cremona are still not sure if they'll stay in the league, and every point is worth gold to them. Pancotto always forces defense, and they often play that badly. After conceding 100 points in Venezia, his absolute focus is on the defense. They can't win their matches otherwise, and he knows it. Reggiana got better in the away matches in the final matches of the season, and every point is valuable to them because of the playoffs. Defense is their forte as well, and they know it, with 73 conceded points per match, they're among the best defenses of the league. They crushed Cremona in the first match, and Cremona got to 75 points in the relaxed final moments of the match. They won't celebrate that easily today which means they'll have to play defense until the alarm goes off. In circumstances like those, a number of points offered for Cremona is overestimated, because Cremona only score 75 points per match. They scored 53 (Brindisi), 72 (Siena), 69 (Caserta), 68 (Roma) against defensively oriented teams, so it's clear we should gravitate towards 70, and not 80 points. Details

Everything is clear here. Sassari are highly motivated, and if that is the case, the opponent are in great problems. They performed poorly against Reggiana away last round so they need to make amends for it today. They lost only twice home, and always dealt easily with the bottom-of-the-table teams. Pesaro lost by 24 point, Cremona by 34, and Montegrenaro might as well be weaker than both of them. They lost Collins and Mayo, and now Skeen. Lauwers is experiencing some problems with his knee. Recalcati have very little players at his disposal, and he knows he can't do anything against Sassari today and that their key games are those to come. Being in this situation, they won't be able to keep up with Sassari, and the Sardinia-based team sure know how to punish that. Details

Even though Varese are a tricky team whose matches vary from disastrous to good ones, too many things are on the home team's side to be ignored. Cantu have 12-0 in their Mapooro Arena, something to be respected, and teams lot stronger than Varese lost there. Second, Cantu really want to win because they were losing the first 20 minutes against Caserta in the last round, and keeping the second place on the league table is really important for them. They defeated Varese in the away match with five points advantage, and Sacripanti showed how to defeat Varese in that match because they were losing for at least 30 minutes. Lastly, maybe the most important part, Varese lost Clark, their leading striker and assistant who spent 31 minute on court. Even though Cantu have a problem with Aradori's injury, they announced he'll play, and if his minutes are limited, Gentile will cover for him, and he's probably playing the season of his career. Johnson is questionable for Varese, which is also good for this bet. Details

When I started looking at the handicap margin, I expected it to be at some 15 points, which goes to show by how much they missed it. It is well known that Milano are the alpha and the omega in Italian basketball as no one is at their level at the moment. They have 12 wins and are getting away from their competition, while Banchi will not allow his team to relax in games like this. Montegranaro are fighting Pesara to avoid relegation and the same Pesaro beat Milano by 21 points when they were not in their current form. True, they had Langford then, but they have plenty of options and his absence is not crucial, while a win for Milano by over 7 points is definitely worth a higher stake. Details

Up until recently, Montegranaro were a striking machine, a team who ran all the time, and scored three pointers all the time. Then, Roma gave an offer for Mayo, and that's where things turned around. Coach Recalcati knows it. Mayo was the team leader, he liked to pull things, speed up, find his players, and make things happen himself. He's gone, and Montegranaro's offense suffers. They scored 50 to Siena, 75 to Varese. On the other hand, Caserta are a team that are fighting for the playoffs and win their matches with the defense. Brindisi scored 64 against them, Reggiana 68, Milano 61, and only Roma managed to score over 80 (82). They can't lose matches at home, they're aware where the guests are more threatening, and they definitely have what it takes to stop the guests. Montegranaro shouldn't be close to 70 points in this match, except with a crazy striker performance. Details

The first match between these two ended 73-52 for Milano, and it made clear what kind of matches we'll be seeing when they play against each other. They're the second and third best defense of the league, big workers who base everything on the defense. Reggiana aren't comfortably set when it comes to playoffs, so they'll have to do their best to defend their court today. Milano, on the other hand, come after a big win against Olympiakos and with a desire to hold on to the first place. They played relaxed against Venezia in the last round, and that won't happen today. They're aware of how tough this match will be and I believe the defenses will do their job, and this will stay under the margin. Details

Brindisi and Caserta are two teams who are great athletically and physically. They are always uncomfortable for any offense and there's a reason they're the top of the league when it comes to defense efficiency. This is especially obvious when they play against each other, like we've seen in the first match that ended 69-65 in the today's home team's favor. It's clear that this margin is calculated based on the average of the season so far, and there aren't many teams in the league that can play the defense like these two clubs can. Two of the best players of both teams, James and Brooks, will cover each other, and none of them will get the points easily. Brindisi want to keep up with Milano, while Caserta values each point because of the playoffs. Details

Sassari seem to be in a state of trance since winning the Cup. They're bursting with confidence and that's clearly showing. They beat Cremona by 24 points, Varese home by 21, and Brose in Eurocup by 18. But, due to a bad period they were in, they hold the sixth position in the championship. The last third of the regular season will be all about reaching as best position as possible for them. They're playing Pesaro home today. Pesaro are the last team in the table, with four consecutive defeats, all of which were quite convincing. Sassari struggled a lot to win in Pesaro by four points at the start of the season, and that is definitely something they won't allow to happen again. The Sardinia based team will win by at least 15 points. Details

Montegranaro lost a lot when Mayo left. He was the team leader, and the whole offense depended on him. Now they're left with Rossi who played very little, and they signed the young Kudlacek. Everyone knows they don't play defense, and with the changes mentioned here, their offense will have a lot of problems with the aggressive Siena's defense. Siena are in a good shape again, they won the last three matches, and they have to win matches like these. There's a big crowd on the league table behind them, and the fourth position defense is imperative. Montegranaro haven't defeated them in the last 13 matches, and I don't see why it would happen today when they have so many issues. Details

When Markovski arrived to Venice, he said they have to put the emphasis on defense. It was like that at first, but their games have gone into high figures lately. They simply don't have the players to play like that and Markovski was very angry at his players after a 88-78 defeat at Brindisi. They had 21 turnovers and that's the problem when they want to play faster. They will definitely lower the tempo today as the coach asked them to and his statement that he will bench the first player to lose the ball will certainly be in their mind. Venezia can certainly play solid defense, they did that in the firs game against Siena even though they lost by 69-54. Siena are well known for their tough defense and they will accept the slow rhythm as this is their game. All of this makes the margin in question very far from realistic. Details

Pancotto keeps saying they have to slow down, and not let Pistoia take control. It's all based on defense, and they concede 77 points per game at home. They played the last three home matches great, conceding 64 against Brindisi, 68 against Siena, and 64 against Caserta. Pistoia are similar to those teams, but with one difference, they're weaker in the offense. They have lots of problems outside their court and they score 70,9 points per away match. They only went over the margin once in the last seven matches, and that was against the fast Montegranaro who don't play defense. Details

Montegranaro are known as a gun team who can score lots of points against anyone, and they have 79,6 points per match. So, how come there's this margin of 82 points when Bologna concede 79,7 poinst per match? Montegranaro have lots of problems today because their best player, point guard Mayo, won't be playing due to an injury. He spent 32 minutes per match and scored 16 points and had 4 assists. It's obvious their offense will suffer today because his substitute Rossi was getting crumbs, and it's questionable if he'll know what to do. It should also be mentioned that the players boycotted the practice because the management is late in paying them up again, so that's what the focus was on this week. Bologna weren't famous as a defensive team with Bechi, but Valli coming changed all that. He emphasized that those who won't be playing defense won't be playing at all, and he talks about that segment every time. The match against Siena confirms that - it ended 57-54 for Bologna. I know it's difficult to compare Siena and Montegranaro when it comes to offense, but it's not easy to leave anyone with such a low number of points. Valli announced slowing down and controlling the rhythm, but with all the problems Montegranaro have, this margin is too high. Details

Even though the margin is relatively low, several facts still provide value for it. Caserta and Reggio are not renowned as attacking teams, even though they can play efficient games against poor defenses. Caserta are the worst, and Reggio the fourth worst attack in the league. Caserta also haven't played in two weeks, so I believe they will need some time to get into the offensive rhythm. Reggio played three games without Cinciariji and Brunnero. With such short rotation, slowing the game down will be the priority as a lot of fatigue has surely piled up. On the other hand, defense is their strong side, which is confirmed by the stats as Reggiana are the third, and Caserta the fourth best defense in the league. The next factor is the importance of the game as this is a direct clash between play-off candidates. They're only two points apart and it's very important for them to win games like this. If we look at their games against teams with similar traits, it is clear why this should be a tough game. Caserta played a 105-point game against Milano, 133-point against Venezia, 141-point against Siena, 131 against Roma, and 154 against Pistoia. Reggio had 120 against Siena, 139 against Roma, 125 against Milano, 123 against Pistoia. The only high-scoring affair was against Venezia with 166 points. The first head-to-head ended with 135 points and I expect something similar today. Details

Had Trentino been complete, we might say this could be a tight game, but the injuries that struck them are a real handicap. To play without a real opposite is extremely hard, especially when your first option is usually Sokolov, it is clear what kind of a handicap his injury is. We can't say that Szabo hasn't been handling his job solidly, so his injury is another great loss. And the icing on the cake is the injury of their captain and important middle blocker Birarelli. There aren't many teams that can make up for such absences. Cuneo too advantage of them this weekend, and that very same Cuneo would probably be unable to take a single set against Belgorod. Shipulin rested his team in the league and they should be completely ready for this game and for the win that will bring the Final Four. I expect Belgorod to settle this game quickly to their advantage and the fact that they only need two sets to go through prevents me for going with a higher stake. Despite that, I believe the Russians will not compromise and that they will win this one with ease like in the first game. Like last time, Trentuno under 78.5 and Belgorod under 90.5 at Bet365 are also great options that could be taken for one unit less. I will go with a handicap that is more available and worth this stake. Details

When Markovski got to Venezia, the team didn't look well at all. They were losing every game and then he put Vitali as point guard and he made some other technical changes and Venezia start winning. It is clear what problems Venezia are in without Vitali and this will probably be the case today. Vitali had a sever case of bronchitis and is having major problems with his respiration. Another problems lies in the fact that their reserve PG Giachetti is also unprepared as he is back after a two-month break, so the club quickly signed the American player Aaron Jackson. He certainly didn't have the time to adapt and spend some time with the team so Venezia will have major problems organizing their attack, just like against Varese. The extent of their problems from these injuries is reflected in the last two games, and Brindisi are a better team than Varese and Montegranaro. The only absence for Brindisi is their experienced captain Bulleri, which is why Dyson will have a huge responsibility today. But, this is a great player who leads his team and I believe Brindisi will confirm their form by getting into the semi-finals. Details