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Lithuania play at home, the time works great for them, and Croatia haven't even felt it yet. They're at the height of their strength, haven't been this strong for a long time, and they're collectively closer to Poland than Croatia, while individually, they're better because of the NHL players Zubrus and the Swedish first league goalie, which is their biggest advantage in match like this one, in my opinion. Croatia national team are half amateurs, they're really tired and weakened because of the injuries in previous matches. The last two matches showed Croatians are falling down, and Lithuania always matched their tasks, with minor oscillations against Romanians. A day of rest certainly helped both teams, but definitely a lot more to Lithuania who are complete, and a lot better team at the moment. Croatia also have a deficit of their best back not playing. All in all, Croatians can hardly complicate this match, especially when they almost definitely secured the bronze. Details

After seeing the Croatia - Romania and Poland - Netherlands games yesterday, I decided to take a handicap on Poland even if the margin is at -2.5. I still stand by that, but for a somewhat safer option I'll take a handicap on Poland at a -1,5 margin, as those are great and widely available odds. The reason is that Croatia is struggling with an already thin and not too powerful roster, while Poland are strong, motivated, disciplined and fired up. The only ones they didn't beat with the handicap was home Lithuania, everyone else got squished by at least 4, and as they're two levels above everyone here, I think they'll top Croatia by at least 3. A win would also secure them the gold and ascent the next rank before the last day, avoiding the drama. Croatia were great on defense so far, mostly due to the KHL players, but now they're missing their best back Martinović, and with Kanaet and Mario Novak also missing or unprepared, they've had to rotate out their first back pair. The long game yesterday must have tired them out as well, while Poland had time to prepare and rest. There is simply no argument for this ending in anything but at least 2 for Poland, as to get a close loss like Lithuania or a win Croatia would need to play their best so far, and they already did that against Britain. Apart from this handicap, as Croatia are better on offense than defense, I'd suggest trying over at 5.5, for another high value bet. Details

I will take this bet for several reasons. First of all, Lithuania may not be the better team than UK in normal terms, but they are here and I think this is where the mistake was made when setting the odds. Second of all, judging by what they've shown here, Lithuania are at least two level above the UK. Thirdly, the Lithuanians have individual quality in the NHL forward Zubris and their goalie, who managed to beat Poland almost all by themselves, while the UK's squad is barely solid and they have no individual quality. In addition, Lithuania are playing at home, in front of full stands and it seems to be working for them, especially playing in the evening which seems to be working poorly for the UK. In addition, Lithuania have beaten the Netherlands by 4-0 in the first game, and they gave Poland a hard time, and the Dutch team is practically on a par with UK, albeit somewhat weaker. The English have no had a good game here as Croatia surprised them and the Romanians are the outsiders that they beat with ease. The teams had one day of rest and regardless of the English arrogance, absolutely everything is working in Lithuania's favor, as they are chasing the medal and they can't do that without beating the UK. I am convinced the UK will go down today, inside the first 60 minutes as there has been no overtime so far, and I wouldn't be surprised if they win in a handicap. Details

Poland are better than the other teams on this tournament by at least two levels, but as a team and in individual terms, and especially with their team of Russian coaches. They are simply above everyone else here and it's visible from a mile away. However, why betting on such a high handicap? The Poles are a team that grinds their opponents, they like to outplay everyone and they never settle for a win. They want to do their absolute best in every game, they go all out, they have no compromise in reaching their goal, and that's progressing into the higher rank and they will not stop doing their best. Because of this approach, they beat Romania by 7-0, and now they're playing against the only team on this tournament without a win apart from Romania. In addition, the goalie for the Dutch team is their reserve goalie who plays at the amateur level. The Netherlands lost against Croatia and Lithuania, teams much weaker than Poland, by 4-0. Their defense didn't work and their attack was a disaster. In comparison, the Poles beat Lithuania at home by 3-2, the same Lithuania who beat the Dutch by four goals. Simply put, the Netherlands are closer to Romania than Lithuania here and that's why I think this will be a third trashing in a row for the Dutch, especially after the Poles had one day to rest. Details

I've found an information that the Dutch team, which was killed by Zubrus's line alone, has lost their first-choice goalie Ian Meierdres to injury. He might be replaced by Martijn Oosterwijk, a man who's practically an amateur. The reserve goalie who's not even in the top Dutch league and who averages over 2.5 goals per game at the amateur level. That's a huge chance for the Croatian team, especially Kostovi and Rendulić, who could settled this game on their own. In addition, Croatia's goalie Mate Tomljenović isn't doing too well either. He's still inexperienced and as much as he had Martinović, Letang, Waugh and the rest of the KHL defense he can concede plenty of points against the solid Dutch team. I just can't see him get two shutouts in a row and that's why I will go for an over here as I expect a goalfest, much like in the first head-to-head of these two teams when the Netherlands won by 8-2. I don't expect the Netherlands to win, especially not so dramatically, but I definitely expect 6 goals or more here. Details

Lithuania and Netherlands seem to be very similar teams at first glance, and looking at their rosters they are. However in this particular situation, a way too many factors favor the Lithuanians. Although the Dutch are better ranked in the IIHF, thanks to their old results, Lithuania are playing at home, and the game is also the starting match of the World Championship, the most important sporting event of the year in that country. Lithuania will have fan support, while at the same time not as much pressure as if this were, say, basketball. Both teams have a similar profile, but Lithuania have two big and important differences: Dainius Zubrus on offense and a Swedish first league goalie at the goal. Under these conditions and at this level those are huge advantages, especially in individual quality, since as a team they are both quality crews. I feel betting on Lithuania has huge value here and in this situation, and should be taken advantage as apart from the IIHF ranking nothing favors the Dutch. Details

St. Louis have to win this game, despite missing 7 players, most of whom are forwards. But, Detroit are not in a much better situation either, which is why I'm opting for this bet. The Red Wings have no motivation for this game, it can cause them more problems than it can do them good - I'm talking about injuries, of course. The Wings are in the East Conference play off, this game is not important for the position, and they have had a number of injured players for a while now. They lost Zetterberg and five other starting line up players (four forwards and defender) to injuries. On the other hand, the Blues can't count on seven forwards, that's more than two lines, but unlike Detroit, they can make up for it. Furthermore, the Blues have the whole defense on their disposal, the defense which is at least twice as good as the Wings'. They also have better goalies. In their first head to had game this season, the Blues beat the Wings 4-1 away. Now their playing home, they have to win for the play off and the better position in it, they have to end the losing streak, and make it up to their fans in the last game of the regular season...To put simply, the Blues have no choice but to try and win as convincingly as they can, and that is more than possible against this Detroit. Details

In the last two matches, when Bozen lead 2-0 in series, Red Bull celebrated 7-2 and 5-3, the latter one in an away match. So, they defeated the Foxes with this handicap in both last matches. Today, they're playing the last EBEL match this season, between the Austrian and non-Austrian team, and we know what that means when it comes to refereeing. Red Bull didn't need referees' help that much so far, even though there were fights in Bozen in the last match. But, this match is the determining one, and RB have a chance to make history because no one ever started the series of three wins for the finals after being 0-2 behind. Everything's on the Bull's side for sure, from the home ice, referees, individual quality, motivation, momentum, to the huge run they are in, and Bozen simply can't win here. So, I'll take a riskier bet with the handicap, while those who prefer safer bets, I suggest the safe bet - a clear one on the Bulls. Odds are about 1.60, and they should be 1.20, realistically. With all we said, in five home matches this season, RB defeated Bozen three times, each time covering this handicap. In ten matches they played this season, the Bulls celebrated five times, and only once without the handicap. Details

Dallas are in form and fighting for the playoffs so a win in this game would secure the eighth spot for them and the first playoffs since 2008. On the other hand, St. Louis are in the biggest crisis ever since the start of the season, the team is tired and fragmented as their four main players are either injured or close to injured (Steen recovering, Oshie in Doubt, Tarasenk and Backes out) but their form has also been disastrous lately, they have lost four in a row. They have been particularly poor away, and that is usually not their strong side either, and they lost the top spot in the West and now hold the third position. Even though they have a 2-2 score this season, Dallas have won last 2 games, both in St. Louis and both in March and these are very important facts. Dallas are also complete, they are highly motivated and they know what they are going for as a win would secure the playoffs, since they don't want to decided that in a direct clash against Phoenix away in the last game of the season. In addition to all that, Dallas have won six out of last 10 games, they have not had two defeats in a row in a while, especially not at home and as they were defeated by Columbus in the last round, they can't allow themselves another slip-up, especially not against the Blues who are coming here exhausted after a game in Minnesota. Details

This is the final, nothing more needs to be said of the importance of this game. However, the reason I chose under are the previous matches of these teams. Of their last 6 this season, 4 covered the under. The first two were over, but those were in October and November, meaning irrelevant for this final. Later games ended twice with 3-1, and 3-2 after extra time in the last two matches. The game before last one was decided in shootouts, and the last with Red Bull scoring in overtime.
Further on both teams are in top form, with RB on 4 straight home wins and Bozen at five straight away wins. Red Bull have won seven straight games and kept their net empty for over 100 minutes, while Bozen have been one of the two best (Vienna) defenses in the league throughout this season. Both teams are also in full strength, with Bozen missing just one forward. Bozen also went under in both first games in the two playoff series they played so far. Salzburg had the same once, and went over with 4-2 in the second, with a classic 6th hockey goal at the end of the game, though not an empty-netter. With all that in mind, and mostly due to their track record in mutual games and the fact their first games deviate from others with very few goals (or they have so far at least), I think this under is worth taking, even with the extra time at the same margin, for some bigger odds. Details

Since last round, St. Louis are the first team in the Western Conference and NHL. They are playing their best hockey this season and even though they haven't made a major change, the arrival of Ryan Miller and several minor changes have made them even stronger ahead of the play-offs. So, the Blues currently have 5 wins in a row and 7 in last 10 games and most of them came away. They are even stronger at home and they have a run of 3 consecutive wins and 4 in last 5 games. Generally speaking, St. Louis have been the best home team this season with only 8 defeats in 31 games. This game is a chance to get a bigger lead ahead of the second-placed Anaheim as the Ducks flopped against Toronto last night. And this is a huge motivation for the Blues who have been announcing their Stanley Cup and Presidents Trophy campaign for weeks. Dallas have not been bad lately, quite the contrary, but I am betting against them due to terrible situation that arose last night. After a long time, the whole NHL was shocked as RIch Peverly collapsed on the bench and the games against the Jackets was suspended. Judging by coach Lindy Ruff's statement, the players are in shock and crisis due to this incident and are not even thinking about hockey. In addition, apart from Peverley, who is an important forward, the Stars are without their first-choice keeper Lehtonen. So, the Blues are completely organized while Dallas are facing an unexpected crisis. Details

Bozen and Alba are two typical "under" teams, very disciplined, tactically and physically strong, and teams which put an emphasis on their defense. This particularly goes for the Italian team which has the best defense in the league next to Vienna, especially in the last two rounds. As far as Alba goes, they have the best goalie in the league, Zoltan Heteny, who has impressive 92.5% saves. Defenses are also strong and as they have no absent players and both teams are complete, the likelihood of an under is even higher. This is all reflected in last two games between these two teams - the first ended 3-2 for Bozen after overtime, while the second barely went over (4-2), but I think Bozen's great away game has a lot to do with that as they have been much better away than home throughout the season. Alba have to win if they want to avoid a 3-0 deficit as only a miracle would see them come back from that. Bozen will aim to achieve that - a win that would almost certainly see them pass this fixture. Considering the situation and the last two games I don't see this game as an over. Details

Znojmo and Linz are both over teams, and the only such teams meeting in the playoff quarterfinal, which was known even before the playoff started. The first two games of the series ended as expected, with lots of goals, and this over was covered both times. The first game went to Znojmo, 4-3, while the other duel ended 4-4, with Linz scoring the fifth for the win in overtime. The best factor working for this over is that Mike Ouzas, first goalie for Linz, has been out of shape for some time now, while Sasu Hovi isn't performing great either. Both teams have excellent attacks though. This is the only playoff series in which the winner will be the team that scores more, meaning the better offense, not defense, will decide the outcome. The prior matches of these two teams also speak in favor of this bet. They played 8 matches, and stayed under this margin only twice. Regardless of this being the playoff, I see this as going over, as the series is tied at 1-1, and both teams can, and probably will in my opinion, rush for victory. Details

Phoenix and St.Louis played twice this season already, and covered this under both times: they played in Missouri both times, and the first match ended 3-2 for Phoenix after the overtime, and the second match ended 2-1 for the Blues. But, even more important than that are the last matches of these teams who both go under more often than over. So, Coyotes lost three matches since the break after the Winter Olympics, with results 2-1, 3-2 after the additional overtime, and the last one against Colorado 4-2. So, two unders with this margin worked in the last three matches. As for the Phoenix, they have four unders in the last five matches with this margin, and six in the last ten. It's even better with St.Louis, the Blues had two matches end with under since they came back from the break. Both times, they lost 1-0 against teams who play under, Vancouver and Anaheim. Blues have three unders in the last five matches with this margin, and six in the last ten, which is more than great for a margin this low. Also, what's important for this bet are the goalies. Mike Smith will goal tend for the Phoenix, and he got rested, while Ryan Miller will debut for the Blues. Since he's an extremely charismatic man, and also one of the best American goalies in general, I think Miller will want to show off right away, so I expect him to be brilliant after he replaced negative surroundings with the positive (he came from Buffalo). So, considering all of this, this match has what it takes for it to end with a low number of goals, because Blues want to end their two defeats series, and Coyotes their three defeats series, and every point is important for both teams because they're in the middle of a heated battle for the playoffs. Details

This match has all the important parameters for the bet on an under - the importance of the match, team's defenses, their shape, their last matches and the last matches they played against each other. Vienna need a win to stay on the second position in the league, and because Bozen are threatening that from the third position, they have to win. Znojmo have to keep the fourth position on the table, so they could have the advantage of the home ice in the playoff quarterfinals - this was set as the goal for the coach Reznar. Linz and VSV are threatening to take that away, so Znojmo really want to win in Vienna because they know they can, since they already won on the Caps' ice. Also, Vienna are one of the best home teams of the league this season, while Znojmo are the best guest team of the league, next to Alba and Bozen. So, things got turned around, Znojmo have three consecutive defeats in away matches, and Vienna were defeated three times in a row at home. So, these teams are much alike, and they have the same goals.
Znojmo are very good defensively with their goalie Hovi lately, and Vienna are the best defense of the league, next to Bozen. These two teams are in a similar shape, and this under went through in four out of the five matches they played this season, in all four last ones (after 4-3 in the first match, the results were 4-0, 3-2, 3-0, and 3-2 in the overtime). Besides all of that, Vienna have seven unders with this margin in the last ten matches, Znojmo have the same in the same period, and they're even better than Vienna in that segment in the last matches they played. That's why I think the odds many bookmakers have set for the under are overestimated. Details

Nashville and Winnipeg are in a group of five clubs who are struggling to get to the playoffs on the West, and they're only a few points apart. The Preds and the Jets are only two points apart, and Winnipeg have two more. So, this is a direct battle for the 11th position of the West, and the growth for the playoffs zone. Nasvhille have a chance to skip the Jets, and the Canadians want to avoid defeat at any cost, while the win would get them to the magical eighth position. Both teams have good goalies, defenses that are better than their offenses, which is especially obvious with the home team, and both team are also in top shape. Both covered this under in their first match after coming back from the break, and in the matches against each other, four so far, they went to this under three times, and only the last match in Winnipeg, went to over. Now, the situation is a lot more serious for both teams compared to the end of January, and it's played in Nashville, where the only match so far ended with a 3-2 win for the Preds after the overtime. Judging by both coaches' statements, we can expect a tight match, and the previous matches only support that. The Preds defeated Tampa 3-2 in an away match, allowing them for only seven shots to the goal after the first period, while Winnipeg defeated Phoenix with that same result - Phoenix are one of those five teams fighting for the playoffs in the West. So, this will be a similar, or almost the same match we should be seeing tonight in the city of the country music. Details

Dallas have six unders for this margin and in the last game (first after the break), they continued playing like they did before - strong defense, great Lehtonen and offense which doesn't go over the top, so the game went under relatively easily. In last ten games, the Stars have 8 unders for this margin, which is a result of the play-off battle in the Western Conference where the Stars hold the eighth spot and expect to keep it and progress further. On the other hand, Tampa are a typical under team, one of the best in the East. They have a great goalie, Ben Bishop, who even has better figures than the reserve keeper of Finland's national team. In addition, Tampa are struggling with offense as St. Louis announced his departure, Stamkos is injured and the rest of the team is nowhere near as powerful as the two. Tampa also played an under game in the last round, losing by 3-2 after being up by 0-2, while they have 4 unders in last 5 games. In addition to their great defense and poor offense, they are also struggling with fatigue as this is their second away game in the West in only three days. This is second home game against a team from the East for Dallas and considering their great form and the imperative to win, I believe a win for the Texas team is also worth playing in addition to this under, as well as an under for Tampa's total number of goals. Details

Both teams are great in defense, typical under teams with great charismatic coaches - Roy and Sutter. Both head-to-heads have so far ended under this margin with 1-0 for Colorado and 3-2 for the Kings but after penalty shoot-out. In addition, the Avs are without one of their best forwards MacKinnon and a great offensive back player Johnson, while another top-six for ward, Alex Tanguay, is still out. The goalies for today are Varlamov and Quick, two of the top goalies in the league. This is an important game for both teams because of play-offs as every point matters in NHL now. Because of this, and because of rigid defenses on both sides, I expect this to be a solid under. Details

Alba and KAC are playing the most important game of the season - a "do-or-die" game for both teams. While the Hungarians may have some space for maneuvers if they lose, KAC's chances of reaching the play-offs in case of a defeat are down to a bare minimum. And they are the reigning champions. In addition, they are in a poor run and have a disastrous form, while Alba have one of the best goalies in the league, Heteny, who came from the SM League in the middle of the season and got a shutout in the last game. So, Alba have the defense, and the have gone under this margin in last three games in a row, 4 in 5, and 8 in last 10. KAC have gone under in 3 out of 5 and 6 in 10. In terms of head-to-heads, this under went through in 4 out of 5 games this season and in last there consecutive games, bearing in mind that the last game ended in 2-1. In addition to all that, KAC are without their important forward Kirk Furey, while Alba are in great defensive, but not offensive, form as they beat Inssbruck two days ago by 3-0. So, everything her points to another under. Details