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I see something highly illogical in the odds for this game. Last season, when PAOK's team was far behind Olympiakos, on the level of Atromitos and Asteras, we had odds like these, which were still good enough to bet something on PAOK. Now that PAOK are on par with Olympiakos, the odds are still the same. There was talk prior to the season that PAOK might tumble Olympiakos from the throne, with the only flaw in that theory being the "small" games, in which Oly do better due to a longer bench. However, PAOK have so far demonstrated that they can deal with that, not to mention the fact that they can give the home team a huge amount of trouble in a direct duel. Oly will win the championship (if they do at all) by beating Levadiakos, Veria and the like, not PAOK. Along with the general situation this season, one must also pay attention to the current state of affairs. Olympiakos played vs Panathinaikos last weekend, and then managed a big win over Benfica. They are definitely physically spent, and emotionally pretty empty as well, as beating Benfica and passing to the second round is a huge success for them. PAOK, on the other hand, played an away game in Israel, rested some of their players, and the game was a simple walk in the park, with the shots statistics proving that best (4-5, in the frame and out of it). There can be no talk of fatigue in the away team then, the trip to Israel was more a team-building trip than a match. I believe we will be seeing a cautious approach from both sides, this is not a game one charges to victory in. PAOK have a much bigger chance in this kind of a game, and I think that Oly would gladly take a tie today after the two victories they scored, just to keep the points difference the same. As for the odds, PAOK are severely underestimated, these are the odds we should be seeing on X2, and there is no way I'm passing this up. Details

We've opted for this bet many times this season, and it always worked. There's no point in stopping then. Panonios are still playing top level defense, coach Sferopoulos doesn't fail to mention the importance of defense before each game, and his players display it perfectly on the court. Even when he thinks they failed in defense, like in the last round against Besiktas away, they still concede only 71 point, most of them in the very end. They're playing the team much weaker than Besiktas today, who depend on the well organized basketball with a strong defense as well. That is how Aris scored 66 and 67 points against Kifisija and Dramas and won. They scored 68 points in the defeat to PAOK, and managed to score 77 only in the game with the super-fast Rethymno. They are facing a defense that is much better than all of the aforementioned ones and the tempo that will surely be slow. Panonios are definitely the favorite for the win - given the quality of their players, and the bet for home team to go under is the best choice in a game like this one. Details

Today is the perfect opportunity for Latina to win a set - they didn't do it in the last two games. The Challenge Cup win against Chemes was their first one this season and it gave them a boost of confidence. Michailovic proved he's in fine form so far, he rested against Chemes, and Torres turned out to be a great replacement for him. Fragkos proved to be their first choice receiver. Gitto and Verhees are good quality blockers, and international libero Rossini bring security to defense. Vibo didn't show much so far, and they had problems against Verona despite winning. Receiver Cisolla and libero Farina are back on the team, but I still don't see them as the favorites for the win. A tied match is expected - at least four tied sets, which should mean that they'll go over this margin. Details

Ornavasso are the most pleasant surprise of the season so far, having beaten Arsizio and Frosinone in an away game, and might have tumbled Modena as well with a bit more luck. Taking their good form into consideration - along with the fact that theirs is a higher quality team than Urbino - the option of them winning in three sets in front of their own crowd definitely seems like a viable bet with these odds. Even more so since this is a cup game where they will be looking to secure the best possible position for the rematch, and therefore it makes a big difference if the score is 3-0 or 3-1. A possible difficulty lies in the fact that Ornavasso are expected to win today, which they were not in previous games. However, if they could pull themselves together after Arsizio turned 0-2 into 2-2 and still win the tie-break, I believe they will be able to handle being favorites in this game. Still, due to that new situation, I recommend a somewhat more modest bet. Details

Their last head to head match ended with a 25-25 score. Minden played the last two rounds against teams to some extent similar to Gummersbach with a 6-0 defense - the number of goals in those games was 51 and 48. Minden still didn't win, which makes this one of the most important games of the first part of the season. They are preparing and expecting a very fierce game. This is the first game for Gummersbach after the failure against Fuchse. They had some crisis meetings right away, coach assigned some penalty trainings, which means they'll be highly motivated and keen. This game is very important for them as well - the defeat would get them one step closer to the danger zone. Their defense is stronger than last season, and the offense is currently not the strong suit of either team. Details

Judging from their concept, there are few teams in the Polish league that fit Kotwica less than Asseco. The home team have one of the best defenses of the league, limiting their opponents to only 65 points on average, while the away team are scoring 70 on average. If Kotwica did not have a great shooting day in the last championship game, the figures would be much lower. The match vs Slask was just an exception, confirming the rule that Kotwica are having huge problems with offense this season. They lost a cup game vs Rosa on Sunday, by 50-106. Their biggest issue is organizing the game, and Asseco are known as a team that plays a very aggressive and tough defense. The away team also lack a strong center line that would take advantage of the absence of a classical center among the home team. Asseco faced Kotwice twice in the preseason, and scored a decisive victory both times (83-70, 67-49), even while they could not count on their best player A.J. Walton. Details

Esbjerg will be playing vs Kopenhagen without their best scorer Ankersen, a very important midfielder, and important midfielders Lekven, Rasmussen and captain Andreasen. Combined with fatigue after a tough game on Thursday, this will certainly affect their already small roster, and an experienced team like Kopenhagen should be able to take advantage of that. Esbjerg have focused on Europe more in the last few weeks, and after they managed to secure advancement their league results should improve as well, but only after the break for the national teams, which starts after this duel.
Kopenhagen are the best team of the league, no doubt about it, and after a great match vs Nordsjaelland and winning vs Galatasaray, the team are full of confidence. This is a match they have to win if they want to close the gap behind the leaders, and I have no doubt they will impose themselves from the very start and win this match in the end. Details

This is not an ordinary game, and should not be seen as just another championship game. Karsiyaka are currently the better team, but a town derby will offer some uncertainty, and I am sure Aliaga can parry their opponent. I cannot say if they will win, but they will not lose decisively. Karsiyaka have had a tough game and a long journey from Russia, while Aliaga have spent the entire week preparing for this match. For them this is the third game at home in a row. They beat Galatasaray and played a solid game vs Fener, who are currently a world apart from everyone else. The arrival of a new American moved Aliaga, and they are looking better than at season's opening. They have not lost at home to Karsiyaka by more than the handicap is today in the last five seasons, and I am expecting something along those lines today as well... Details

Metalurg are traditionally doing well home, beating them at their stadium is almost impossible - they didn't lose home this season. They managed to get a point last round against the powerful Dnjipar, they played a 2-2 draw against Sahtjor two rounds ago, which must have brought them a lot of confidence. Just to show how well they're doing home - they scored 14 out of the 17 championship goals home. Some players will miss the game again, but not as many as one or two weeks ago. Bezlihotnov and Dimitrov, who might have been in the starting line up, won't be on the team again, but they already missed a lot of games and the team is used to playing without them. On the other hand, Metalist don't seem all too convincing lately. They dropped points two times in the last three rounds against teams that are far weaker than the Donjeck team. Coach Markevic decided to rest first choice goalkeeper Disljenkovic and starting line up defender Moledo today, which, together with all the other players who will miss the game, could backfire. The visiting team sort of have the obligation to win, which they know won't be easy - they won only one point in each of the last two games they played here. Metalist are not doing their best away in general. They won only three out of the six away games this season - against Tavria, Arsenal, and Goverla (three out of the four worst teams in the championship). They still didn't manage to win against more serious teams. I'm therefore sure that the home team can at least play a draw, which I ensured with this handicap. Details

This match is very important for both teams, and as both coaches are mainly focused on defense, points under seems a logical choice. In their two home games so far, Dramas stayed at 139 and 124 points, while leaving Aris and Panionios, much stronger teams than Ilisiakos on the offense, under 66 points. On the other hand, Ilisiakos have been really struggling on the offense this season, and have not managed to score over 69 points to anyone, while remaining at 58 or less on three occasions. Their defense is the only functional segment of Ilisiakos' game, and they've commented that they will try to slow down the game as much as possible, and reduce the number of points scored. They demonstrated their ability to achieve that vs Olympiakos, playing games on 135 and 139 points. Dramas are not even close to Olympiakos in terms of offense, and I believe this will be a very hard game, where even a very low margin such as this one seems a very good bet. Details

The game in Krasnodar will be a clash between the two teams that are in great form. It seems like the game will be tough, and the winner decided in the finish. We've said a lot about UNICS in the preview, they conceded more than 72 points this season only to Enisey, who play a pretty fast game. On the other hand, Lokomotiv had great results at the start to the season, but a more detailed analyses reveals they always scored less against stronger opponents. They scored 51 and 68 points against Lietuvos, 58 against Maccabi, 72 against Panathinaikos. UNICS are playing good defense as well and I think it will be difficult for the home team to reach 75 points. Lokomotiv scored 70, 48, 58 in the last three head to head games played in Krasodar, and 65 and 68 in the play off last season. UNICS seem more organized this season, Trinchieri brought the extra quality and I think that the run will go on. Details

I have to admit I liked the total points margin from the start. Melbourne average 159 points in their games while the Hawks get 167. Even though one of the reasons is that the margin is set well below the team averages, the remaining reasons are even more important. First of all, I'd like to mention the injury of Larry Davidson. Not only is he the leader of the team, he is also the first center and a very important part of the defense. They are very limited in the paint without him, and they will certainly push for the perimeter shots through Tiggs and Clarke. The two foreigners are extremely fast and they know how to do their job, at least in offense. Tiggs has already shown on several occasions that defense is not his strong side, while Clarke is also particularly offensively minded. When Chris Goulding and Worthington are on the other end, a pair of even better shooters, we can see that offense will dominate this game even though the Tigers are primarily a defensive team. I believe Davidson's injury is in itself a reason enough to take this over as the only way the Hawks can win here is through fast-paced game. Details

Had someone said at the start of 2013 that Flamengo will have an opportunity to win a title at the national level, that is, in the Carioca's local championship, even the most die-hard fans of the boys in black and red kits would laugh. The board didn't expect anything but to stay in the league in peace, but now they are in a position to win the Cup and qualify for the Libertadores. Having changed several coaches, only their last one managed to get a win. Jayme de Almeida took over the bench after Mano Menezes stepped away, probably afraid to become the first coach to get relegated with Flamengo. Goias haven't managed to translate their great form from the league onto the cup with Flamengo and they will try to fix that tonight because they can reach the Libertadores from the league as they hold the 4th spot after a run of 6 games, and this makes them less motivated for this game. Walter missed out on both games but today they will get two first-team players back.
Considering they've been playing 2 games in a week for the past 15 weeks, Flamengo's coach will rotate the squad that had a massive celebration when the got into the finals and this might result in fatigue and a potential point for Goias. Flamengo's players have already asked for their bonuses for the cup, and some even claim they won't be interested to try too hard against their rivals Botafogo as Goias are in the battle for Libertadores against them. All in all, Flamengo are not so much better than Goias that they could get 3/3 in 11 days, especially since points mean more to a more motivated and complete Goias. Details

Derbies of bottom ranked teams can be tricky to predict, as both teams are usually under pressure and one never knows who will 'snap' first and lose their concentration and game. This is why one should not expect a beautiful, fluent match between Den Haag and Cambuur, but instead a battle for every ball and meter of the pitch. The team who manage to get a lead might very well take the game as well, and Den Haag believe they have an advantage as the home team.
We might agree with that primarily because they've played a more inspired, fierce, and also efficient game in their last two home games, beating both Vitesse and Twente, two much stronger teams on paper. These duels certainly brought a healthy dose of confidence to the players of coach Steijn, which should carry them vs debuting Cambuur, who have been skittish in away games so far, playing defensively and aiming at a single point. It is therefore no wonder that Cambuur have not won a game in six away matches, losing four times and scoring only two goals.
Even if the situation were different, Den Haag would still be going for three points as these are the most important games in the struggle to avoid relegation, the ones against an equal or even weaker rival, with the victory worth twice as much. This makes it likely that the home team will be aggressive and forward oriented, with the away team defensive and focused on counterattacks and set pieces. Should Den Haag give a rerun of the efficient game they played vs Vitesse and Twente, they would be a favorite in this duel. For the odds on offer, it really pays to bet something on them to win, as the absences they have do not influence the game of the home team significantly, while their motive and desire are surely at maximum. Details

This is a derby, the tensions are huge and you can expect a tough game here. Dijon's style is well known, the away team base everything on their defense. They concede 71 points on average, although they conceded 85 and 99 points in the first 2 games (after over-time). However, this was not real Dijon, they showed what they're made of in the last 3 games when they limited great teams to very low figures. On the other hand, Chalon are far from brilliant offensive performances. They've gone over this margin only twice in the league - against Le Mans, the game which was open from the start, and when they scored 75 against ASVEl with 53 % field goal percentage. Those numbers will not come by so easily today and the home team have to win, but it is very unfortunate to be playing against a team like Dijon. The tradition of their head-to-heads speaks in favor of Chalon but that is not the same team as in previous seasons, there is no Schilb, Lang, coach Beugnot. The game from the pre-season speaks in favor of this bet in as Dijon won this game by 83-70, even though it took place very early in the pre-season. Details

I doubt there will be any calculations here. Lorient desperately need to escape from the bottom and Reims are so high on the table they can risk with a braver approach as was the case against Bastia. The away team are a defensive team but their forwards are in form and their main asset - counters, bode well on artificial turfs like Moustoir. Forecast for today is excellent - slightly rainy. The stats are clear: Lorient have 4 overs in last 5 games, Reims 3 in 4 and 9 out of 10 H2H went over. Details

With this pick the context is much more important than bare figures. For example, Bayreuth lost their last four games and mostly played matches above the said margin, but their opponents were mostly top teams of the league (Bayern, Oldenburg, Brose, Ulm), against whom they could not keep up the same intensity on defense throughout the 40 minutes. Due to the losing streak, the home team are predicting a fierce game. Their opponent is Würzburg, in a local, so called Franken derby. These are always extremely aggressive games, and today should not be any different, considering the situation. Würzburg are in an even tougher situation. They have so far managed to score only one victory and coach Schröder is close to departure, but the players have said that they will do whatever they can on the court to avoid that. Würzburg have been playing much better defense in the last three rounds than at season's opening, managing to limit the run-and-gun Bremerhaven to only 63 points in the last round game. It is clear that the away team only stand a chance if they manage to put up a solid defense. On the other hand, the only two wins for the home team so far were those in which they limited their opponents to 67 and 49 points, in home games as well. Bayreuth and Würzburg played a 140 point game in the preseason. Details

Bilbao have not scored 80 points against anyone in the ACB league this season, and I doubt this will happen tonight either. Bruesa are playing excellent defense, they have limited their opponents to under 71 in their last two home games vs Cajasol and Joventut, and had 81 vs Barca last week, while dominating for three quarters of the match. This is a team that managed to concede less than 80 in all seven of their preseason games, and the progress if obvious in that segment. Their offensive arsenal is not very impressive, and their scores reflect that. Bilbao are also far from the team that played top level basketball in the previous seasons, and as this is a Basque duel, and Bilbao are still at 0 wins, I expect extra tension. In such a situation, I don't see anyone going over 80 points. Details

Mega Vizura is a real run-and-gun team, and they try to break all of their opponents with tempo. Under Spahija, Cibona too are trying to play a running game with fast transition, so this game should be about a lot of points. The only time Cibona went over this margin this season was vs Szolnoki, but I think today we will see a pretty similar match, as Mega are forcing a faster pace as well. They conceded 88 vs Partizan, 91 vs Igokea and 82 vs MZT, while less vs Krka, Cedevita and Zadar. This match is extremely important to Cibona, for several reasons, and I believe they will be extremely motivated. They have an advantage under the rim, making me believe they will win the rebounding duel and get more attacks in the process, so I see them going over 81 points... Details

Villa de Aranda are on the upswing, playing better with every game. Beating Granollers in an away game is the best proof of that (up to that game Granollers only loss was to the untouchable Barcelona). Despite their good roster, the away team are playing rather unsteadily, and as they are missing two of their best players today too, a victory for the home team seems a great bet at these odds. The away team have not played a game in 15 days, and could not practice at a normal pace either as they were missing four players, so they had to use juniors to be able to put together a normal training session. The home team are highly motivated after three consecutive wins, and will do all they can to get a fourth in home court. Details