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Basketball » Euroleague (M), Semi-finals
19.05.2017. 20:30 Finished
Fenerbahce - Real Madrid (84:75)
Total points (OT incl.) 157.5 tip: Under   Ino
Odds Stake Min. odds Last margin Bookmaker
1.90 10/10 - 155.5 Pinnacle
I decided for the overall game under for several reasons. Fenerbahce have been rather clear at this margin in Euroleague this season. They went over in only 5 out of 16 games, and against super-fast teams like Milan, Maccabb, Efes, Galatasaray and Zvezda as an exception, whom their thrashed, so the game went over this margin in an exhibition mood. All other games, including the most relevant ones (Real 155 points, CSKA 148 points, Baskonia 153, Panathenaikos 140 and 147 points) were under. When we look at the latest games against Real, we can see that there was a big battle each time. This season they played at 155 and 117, and last season they played at 143 and 153 in regular season, at 144 and 138 in the play-off, and only once at 178 in a game in which Fener demolished Real by halftime. So, they went over this margin once in seven games. The stakes are much higher today because it is the Final Four and all players pointed out the importance of defense and rebound control. It is hard to imagine any thrashing here, everything is pointing to a defensive battle. Real were under this season against defensively powerful teams (Oly 152, Zvezda 152, Fener 155), while they went over against other teams, which caused such a high margin, but is irrelevant for today's game. Another good option is Real's team under because I think Fener are the favorites today and I don't see how Real could solve the problem they have been having for two years now with Fenerbahce's defense.
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