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Coach Ivkovic: We need one more win in the next three games

Spain didn't look convincing so far, but they have considerable experience in the final stages, which brings them a lot of confidence before today's match. Serbia are a much younger and less experienced team and that could be the decisive factor.

If somebody had told you that you'd watch a Serbia-Spain game in the quarterfinal, you would agree that was a realistic option. However, if they told that Serbia would be a first-place team, and that Spain would barely sneak into the final eight, that would be hard to believe. 

Spain knew, even before the Italy game, that they had qualified for the nex round, thanks to favorable outcomes in other matches, so they were able to choose their quarterfinal opponent in that game. They did that with a loss that caused major controversy, with two missed free throws by Sergio Rodriguez in the final moments of the game, then an easy basket by Datome for overtime, as well as the fact that Spanish coach Orenga played the overtime without Ricky, Rudy and Sergio Rodriguez. All speculation aside, they're not important for this game anyway.

- We are where we are. We'll play in the quarterfinal against a very good team. It would be equally difficult against France or Lithuania, since the pressure of the quarterfinal game is great for everybody. - coach Orenga said after the Italy game.

Spain have shown a lot in this championship. From a fantastic defense, excellent fast break and Marc Gasol's interior game, to the other side of the spectrum with difficulty of executing a set offense and a decline in the final moments of the game, when Gasol is exhausted and can't keep up with the tempo. All that will be in the spotlight today and it'll be interesting to see what will decide. They players are full of confidence, not a least bit worried by Spain's poor performance.

- Everything is erased now. The three losses don't matter any more, everything that matters is the Serbia game. We have been showing for years that we're the strongest is such matches. The team are highly motivated and against Serbia you'll bea bale to see 40 minutes of great basketball. - announced Rudy.

Coach Orenga is also optimistic before the matchup, and everything looks as if the Spanish were still undefeated, and not with three blemishes in the tournament:

- We have a great defense, and our offense is also improving. I believe we're better than Serbia in the backcourt, while they have a longer rotation in the frontcourt. It'll be important to stop their fast breaks, since they're a young team, running a lot.

Everybody is focused on the big Krstic-Gasol duel under the basket, but Orenga emphasizes:

- If we focus only on Marc and Krstic, we're going to miss the rest of the game. There are many other quality players to watch in this game. This will be an interesting 1-on-1 matchup, but the game will be decided playing 5 on 5.

Team's sports director Angel Palmi said, along similar lines: 

- The team that will control the tempo better will win the game. We mustn't allow them to run with our backs toward them, on the contrary, we should do it to them. I hope the players had enough time to rest.

Palmi hit the bull's eye, because it will be physical strength, especially Gasol's, that will be the key of the match. The minutes played by Xavi Rey are the ones when Spain's game drops considerably, but it's hard to believe that Gasol can last for 35 minutes or more in the struggle against Krstic and other Serbian centers.

Serbia ended up with their worst opponent, in their own confession, as a "reward" for the first place in Group E of Eurobasket's second stage. The Serbian public is convinced that Spain were tanking, but, be that as it may, you can be sure that Dusan Ivkovic won't give up. He's already started with demagogy: "We just need to win one of the next three games and we've fulfilled, even surpassed, our plan." The message is clear, Serbia will place in the top 7 with one one, thereby securing a spot at the world championship next year in Spain.

- We must be extremely realistic and focused. We must forget two first places in two groups, because we were in front of much better teams than us. - Duda continued demagogically.

Objectively, Spain have an advatage, in that they have someone to guard Krstic. Not just anyone, but NBA's best defensive player for last season.

- They have Gason who is dominant, but we have the advantage of a longer bench, team play and quality. We'll have great fan support and we'll give our best. We've never been in a situation of so many injuries. - Ivkovic complained.

He was referring to Stefan Markovic's back. "He has a strong desire to play, but I won't let him, he may jeopardize his career." Nemanja Nedovic is also questionable, but his chances of playing are much better. Nedovic's absence would obviously be a big blow to Serbia's ambitions.

- We didn't expect Spain, but there's no way around. We must be focused to play at the same level as against France, though it's clear it will be much harder today. This is the first elimination game, it brings about psychological preparations, but I think we're ready. - Captain Nenad Krstic said, third-best scorer after the second stage of Eurobasket.

Experience in on Spanish side, and it can be an important factor in such games. We can expect a lot of position play, mostly with centers, since both teams are very good in defensive transition. A Serbian trump card is certainly disciplined play in both directions, and the Spanish need, in addition to Gasol, a constant support from the backcourt.

It remains to be seen how will the Serbs adapt to Spain's defensive pressure. Spain have four NBA players in the backcourt and they all play extremely aggressive defense, leading the tournament in forced turnovers. On the other hand, Serbia is among the leaders in turnovers, and today both of their main point guards have problems. If they're left with Micic alone, it doesn't look good for them, since even the main point guards didn't play well against strong defenses, solving the problems by pushing the ball to Krstic.

Serbia's offense had a lot of problems with zone defense, especially with Bjelica on the bench, whe they couldn't set up a meaningful attack. Spain are playing an excellent mobile zone, with Gasol as an insurance under the basket, and that could be a great weapon for Furia in this game. To conclude, here's the Spain coach's metaphor about what they expect till the end of the tournament:

- We're aware that the road to title is not as straight as it appeared, there are some curves to pass. However, we've passed this road several times and we're ready to do it again.

I think Serbia will have a tough time playing without injured Marković (unlikely to start) and Nedović. Spanish guards are likely to press hard, knowing very well that Serbia, alongside Croatia, leads the chart in turnovers of all the second round teams. Krstić is a crucial player in their young team, but he will be playing against Marc Gasol, the best defensive player of the NBA league who is surely able to stop him. Serbia will have the advantage of having more ceners, so the biggest threat to Spain could be Gasol getting to many personal fouls early in the game. Otherwise, Spain has the advantage in every other respect. Given the fact that Serbia is a defensive minded team that has injury problems with point guard, betting on under 68,5 points for Serbia seems like a very good choice. Both teams have a lot to play for and choose longer attacks if they fail to score immediately, therefore Serbia is unlikely to reach 70 points. In the last three matches Spain went over this margin, although their last match against Italy shouldn't be taken into consideration due to the surprising last period. Slovenia and Greece scored over 25 points in the last period. Serbia's young players won't have an easy job, there will definitely be some hands shaking and Spaniards will do everything to stop them from scoring. Gasol and the rest of the team allowed Croatia to score only 40 and Czechs 39 points. Poland should have scored under 50, Finland scored 56 and Georgia 59. In their pre-tournament matches, Spain allowed only France to score over this margin, but France play faster than Serbia will play today.