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Basketball » Greece 1 (M), 5. round
07.11.2015. 16:00 Finished
Aris - Trikala (84:79)
Total points (OT incl.) 148 tip: Under   Goran
Odds Stake Min. odds Last margin Bookmaker
1.84 5/10 1.70 147 Pinnacle
I would never had written this prediction last season, but Trikala changed their game style this season and this team doesn't have much in common with last year's. In the preview of the competition we pointed out that their abilities will primarily depend on defense and how much they will focus on that segment. It was too early to come up with any conclusions after 1-2 games, but it is clear now that this Trikala is different, and rival coaches started to notice that. In four games played so far, they never went over 149, which is where last week's game against Kifissia ended, they stayed at 147 in their two wins, and they played at 147 against offensively great AEK in Athena. They are now facing one of the best defenses in the league, a team that perhaps focuses the most on that segment, and in situation when fatigue is definitely present, I am convinced that Aris will not try to run a lot, they will try to win this game with defense. If we look at the statistics this season, we have only one over, the one against PAOK, which is a consequence of PAOK's game style caused by their problems in the paint, in a game in which Aris had 24 rebounds more. They didn't play over 147 in any other game, not in the championship nor in the Eurocup. On Wednesday against Steaua they stayed at 136 points, won in a fighting finish, with a lot of help from the stands. I would not be surprised if something similar happened today. Trikala are coming weakened, without important shooter Robinson, and I can't see them going over 70 points, and Aris scored over 76 only twice this season, against Arkaidos and PAOK. I think this margin is a consequence of Trikala's game style from last season, but things have changed. They played their pre-season game at 151 point, but it was a one-sided game, it was all resolved mid-way through second quarter. It still stayed close to this margin, with 43 points in the last quarter. The game shouldn't be so one-sided today, I expect bigger fight and definitely a game under 150 points.
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