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I have already written that Aktobe haven't been defeated at home in 2014, and I'll just added that in last five years, the only teams that have beaten them, and by a minimal margin, are Genk and Dynamo Kiev. AZ, Alaniya, Hapoel Tel Aviv are just a few clubs that didn't get a win here, and they all are (or were at the time) teams similar to Steaua.
Romania have a difficult road ahead, an hostile atmosphere and dangerous hosts which, according to some statements, are slightly underestimated, and I believe things will not be easy for them at all. They are definitely the favorites to go through in the end, but I don't think so for the first game. Details

This generation played nine official matches representing Portugal and won all nine, five of which with a large margin, and only one with under three goals scored (against Austria on Friday, with a weaker lineup). They're playing very offensively, with three forwards and Lopes as the organizer behind them, and are most dangerous when they take the lead and force the opponents to open up, as their forward trio are extremely quick and deadly on counterattacks.
Serbia barely made it through the group with Bulgaria and Ukraine, both of which are weak teams, the players are tired after spending 90 minutes trying to score against the Bulgarian bunker, and selector Paunović has just 4 substitutes (and the goalie) due to Živković and Pantić being absent.
A pass and one are "routine" bets for accumulators, but I think the biggest payoff here is on the handicap, because unless Serbia gets lucky in the early stages of the match (in which case they might entrench and even hold out to the end), Portugal's domination can only increase. Last year's defeat is an added incentive not to ease off early. Details

Their head-to-head played four months ago ended in 1-0. Bulgaria had 4 unders in 6 qualification games, Ukraina have 3 but all 3 against strong opponents: Russia 1-1, Scotland 0-0, and England 1-0. They went over in their wins against weak Estonia, Malta and Montenegro and it's clear this match is similar to the first category.
A draw would compromise their chances of reaching the semifinals but that would secure their main goal - third place and a spot in the World Cup. Now that they have this first goal in hand, they won't risk too much until they get the secondary goal. Bulgaria have to attack but the first round has shown their liminations in that domain. Even though the Germans gave them plenty of space, they had only a few chances and counters. If they don't improve today, they will probably remain goalless but I think a goal on each end is a more probable outcome. Details

The odds are so high on account of goal-fests the Caps had in May and June but Robinson has started to change his style after the break and it shows - 4 unders and 1 over against Chivas in a game in which was defined by a sending off. They are coming to Salt Lake tired, a point against direct competition would surely be enough for them and I don't think they'll take too many chances.
The home coach will be extra cautious on account of goals conceded in previous game, and that could be an additional bonus for this bet, but I will rely on the fact that his forwards are in poor form and Saborio's injury will be very costly now. Plata has 1 goal in 6 games, Garcia and Sandoval in 12 and 13, respectively. The visitors have rested Koffie, who can stop dangerous Morales. Coupled with the fact that he game is played at 35˚C, I think an under is a very likely option. Details

I can agree with Uganda being the favorite only because these are two "friendly" teams, but favoring them like this makes no sense. If there is a better team, it's Malawi, who are at least all there, while Uganda are missing two best midfielders, Mawejje and Azira, while the important goalie Onyango is expecting a baby, and is questionable. If I knew for sure he's going to be out, the stake would be a unit or two higher.
For both teams, this is a preparation for AFCON qualifications that they'll play this weekend: the home team against Mauritania on Saturday, the guests an away match against Benin on Sunday. Of course, nobody wants to take a defeat to the key match, least of all with a convincing defeat. The home team eliminated Madagascar in the previous round (1-2, 1-0), and they defeated the amateurs Seychelles 1-0 on Friday in a friendly match. They didn't score over a goal in eight matches (excluding CECAFA). The guests had a bit more difficult task against Chad (2-0, 1-3), and had a tie against Mozambique 1-1 last Sunday, who are about the same level of quality as Uganda and them. Details

I believe Litex's offense will start working and that Veris will get quite a handful, but instead of chasing a high handicap, I suggest a clean sheet, that should go through without a glitch. The difference in quality is huge and I doubt the visitors will attack too much, and if they do attack, they will take things slow, through their veteran Frunza. The Bulgarians have gotten a clean sheet in last 7 out of 10 home games, they added Frenchman Mendy to their organized defense and they will be a tough not to crack even for bigger opponents. The visitors can get a lucky break from a set piece, but the odds of that are certainly not over 50% as these odds suggest. Details

In the last two games, the Dutch have significantly lowered their huge average from group stage (22.67) but there's a logical explanation. Their game against Mexico was very slow for 60 minutes and no team crossed the center with more than 2-3 centers and when they conceded a goal, they just kept attacking until the end; and they kept this attacking tempo for the entire 120 minutes against Costa Rica. Argentina are a different story, they have to stop Messi, Aguero and the rest and I see no way to do that besides fouls. I've previously mentioned the lack of experience of their defense and now they lost their midfield destroyer De Jong and I think this has to become apparent. The referee for the game is harsh Cakir who called 31 and 29 fouls in his last two games. Details

Caen have chosen the most difficult test for their first one. Any kind of a positive result against Rennes would be an encouragement for the newly-promoted team and they will probably focus on defense. Considering how they lost their most important forwards during the transfer period (Fajr, Autret, Kodjia, Koita), I don't expect them to be dangerous. Most of them have been adequately replaced but new players will need time to adapt.
The situation is the same with black-and-reds who have already had a test game (2-1 against newly promoted Luzenac) in which they were far from excellent. They lost their crucial winger Alessandrini and several other attacking players, while their main striker Toivonen is still weighing his offers and is not competing for a place in the squad. Injuries have forced their coach to use some reserve player and even their U-21 forward N'Gand has been ruled out.
Both teams are in early stages of preparations and they will feature young forwards. Their H2H's don't have too many goals anyway - only 1 in last 5 went over 2.5. Details

APOEL and Zalgiris are playing on the neutral pitch in Poland. The Cypriots just started preparing, they gathered on Tuesday, got here on Wednesday. This is their first of three tests in seven days. They're joining the Champions League in the first preliminary round, July 30th, so they have three and a half weeks to practice playing together. League starts by the beginning of August.
Coach Donis' team is almost veterans, mostly first team players older than 30, and they probably need more time to get physically ready. Especially the first striker, 34 year old Manduca (13), their offense depends on him until the reinforcements come, because De Vincenti (12, best player) and Cesar Santin (6) left them in June. Also a few players from other lines. The Lithuanians already did half the season of the new championship where they're the most likely to defend the title. So far, they only had one defeat, and on Thursday, they outplayed a team similar to APOEL, the Israeli vicechampion Beer Sheva, 1-0. They could've easily scored 6-7. The Togo player Nyuiadzi missed a lot, and Adi Rocha will debut today, who should be a big reinforcement, judging by the statistics. The recovered Freidgeimas (defense) and Velicka (offense) are coming back, too. Coach Skerla is practicing the team for the second preliminary round (July 15th), where they got Dinamo from Zagreb, so they have to boost their self confidence.
All in all, there's APOEL, not ready, against the motivated and never stronger Zalgiris - I definitely can't agree that the Cypriots are 50% or more favorites. Their only advantages are the quality and experience, and in preliminary matches, that's usually worth the least. Details

Kazakhstan is becoming a difficult away fixture for European teams due to long journey and a different climate. An additional handicap for the Albanians lies in the fact that they had just begun their preparations, while the home team are in full competitive rhythm, and are a generally better team. I think the only way for the home team to avoid defeat is to park the bus and that's what they'll probably do. Without suspended Pejić and with only Cikalleshi in offense (who has allegedly already signed for another club), I doubt they will be a major threat, even though Kairat are not the most defensively sound team. Details

Dundalk will try to resolve everything in the first 90 minutes, as they've got a difficult away game in Dublin next Sunday. The home team's amateurs can hardly stop Dudalk, but as they have a few dangerous players, goals might be a better idea than a straight up 2.
When at full strength, the Irish score at least two goals on a regular basis in the national league, regardless whether it's away or at home. Jeunesse conceded as many in three of their last six at home, even against much weaker opponents. Details

Algeria's aggressive style will be even more emphasized against technically superior Germans. They had 18 fouls against Belgium, 16 against Korea and 15 against Russia so it's hard to see them going below par today. Everyone plays even rougher in the knock-out stages and out of 8 teams, only 2 have gone under this margin - Mexico and Netherlands, in a game in which no one dominated midfield and Proenca imposed himself as an authoritative ref.
Today's ref is Ricci, who doesn't have this trait and relies solely on his whistle. He handled two very calm games in group stages (France-Honduras, German-Ghana) and called 27 and 28 fouls, respectively. He called 17 fouls for Ghana and I think he'll do the same today with Algeria. Details

Nobody had more than eight hits to the goal post against Mexico - that's how many the title favorite Brazil managed, the Croatians were left with five, and Cameroon, who didn't look bad at all in that match, had four. The Dutch went over 9.5 against the weak Australia (14) and Spain (11), with the fact that at least half of those 11 against Spain were after the 70th minute, when the Spaniards fell apart. I think we don't have to fear that kind of scenario today, Mexico are an experienced and organized team, coming to the game like "the badger" which suits them great (we've seen it twice already), and I believe they'll stay competitive till the end.
The risk for this bet is the injury time, so that option shouldn't be eliminated, but it won't be surprising if they stay under the margin even after 120 minutes. I'll adjust the stakes a bit (I'd take a 6/10 in the group), but the bet is still too good to be tossed away. Details

The Timbers scored three goals against Kansas on Wednesday without using 7-8 of their first-team players, including their main creator Valeri, winger Nagbe and their most in-form player Adi (4/4). Today, they will have a full squad, be in front of their fans and the visitors will have to use the same squad with 3-4 inexperienced players and have had to travel 3000 km.
I wouldn't risk too much betting on the home defense (at least until Ridgewell adapts) as they have had too its blunders, especially at the Providence Park, but that usually gave them some crazy end-games in which they scored a couple of goals, which is an additional argument for this bet. Either this can happen or they can outplay them right from the start (which seems the most logical), it's hard to see them getting under 2 goals. They have scored at least 2 in last 8 games while the guests have conceded over 2 goals in last 4 out of 8 games. Details

If there's a problem with Russia, it's offense. They were completely harmless against Korea and only slightly better against Belgium but still very poor in the final third. They had 5 and 3 shots in on target and they didn't get 6 shots on target in any of their preparation games (Slovakia, Norway, Morocco).
There's no doubt they will attack with all they've got but Algeria will be motivated to defend. If they managed to limit Belgium to six, Russia won't go too far very this margin, even if they put up their most inspired performance. Details

A match between two teams in different stages of their preparations. For Maribor, this is the first serious game as they have been training for only 10 days or so, and coach Šimundža is without three of his best forwards: Fajić (34/16), Mendy (29/14) and Tavares (34/13), and two two important first-team players: center-back Šuler and midfielder Milec. They are playing against Dunaujvaros on Sunday and Petrulol on Wednesday, which means they will have 3 serious games in 6 days and they will not focus all their attention to the team from Azerbaijan.
This will be the end of preparations in Slovenia for Gabala and will be their main rehearsal for the first round of Europa League qualifications next Thursday against Široki Brijeg. They have huge ambitions, they brought in the well-renowned Romanian coach Dorinel Munteanu and four major reinforcements, among whom Abishov from Kazan is the most important one. They started their preparations with 1-0 against Stojnica, continued with 1-0 against Kopar and I think they can at least stay undefeated. Details

There have been very few offsides on the WC so far so we have been getting good odds where shouldn't. Here we have two teams that have to attack and both have a player that likes to play 'on the line' (Costy and Drmić).
The Swiss set up offside traps against Ecuador (4) and they tried against France as well but it didn't work (2) and they found themselves in one on one occasion. Honduras have lower figures but they will play a higher game, which is something they're not used to, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Suarez trying to compensate that with offsides. Details

In the first two rounds, the average possession for Costa Rica was 44%, and I don't think they can get that any higher against England. Hodgson was up until now trying to push fast counter-attacks, and they had possession of 62% against Uruguay regardless. Lampard-Wilshere-Lallana-Barkley-Milner will be the English midfield today. All five of them have great technical skills and can keep possession successfully, even if Costa Rica are ready and with key players in the line up, which is not the case today. I'm not saying that Wilshere and Lallana are better than Henderson and Sterling, I'm only saying that they're more capable of keeping possession.
I think England will dominate the game and win, but this is an even safer option, and I recommend it. I will cost almost the same. Details

Perišić concluded the season for Wolfsburg in excellent goal-scoring form (6 goals in last 6 games), and he said he wants to improve his efficiency for the national team, he scored a brace against Mali and was one of the most dangerous and the best players against Brazil. Apart from Mandžukić, who might need some time to get in the game, I think he's the prime candidate to score. If the coach keeps him on the right side (and it seems he will), he'll get plenty of chances against undisciplined Assou-Ekotto. Details

The bookmakers seem to have a clear stand on this group - Belgium are the great favorite, Russia will get to next stage, Korea will end their campaign in third place, and Algeria will end as the last team in the group. I would personally not be surprised if they turn out to be wrong about all four teams. What strikes me as especially weird is their favoring the inexperienced and unready Korea over Halilhodzic's well-organized Algeria, whose players come from great Europa clubs such as Napoli, Inter, Valencia, and Tottenham.
Korea have recorded some good results in the last few World Cups, but in the meantime, all their key players either retired (the legendary goal keeper Lee, Manchhester United's winger Park, forward Jung-Hwan), or are about to retire, and weren't even invited to participate (defenders Nam-Il, and Cha Du Ri, forward Dong-Gook. Myung-Bo is putting a new team up around the Olympic team of 2012, and it will clearly take him a while.
They were defeated in the last home game before 60,000 fans to Tunisia, a team currently weaker than Algeria. After that, they got destroyed by Ghana in the States, a team no better than Tunisia. Friendly matches should not be taken as the main criterion in judging the team, but they should not be deemed irrelevant either. Algeria beat four opponents, who are all very close to their level, in the last four games - Burkina Faso, Slovenia, Armenia, and Romania. They are more experienced, tougher, and have better quality. In case they play a draw, they have a better chance of surprising someone, or at least prevail on account of goal difference. Details