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This is the crucial game for Antwerp to pass the group as the win will give them the first place and they will not rely on the other game. Their opponents aren't too powerful and more importantly, they have no motivation. Their first player Jenskins is in doubt and probably won't play while Antwerp have sounded red alert and Top 16 has been marked as a goal a long time ago. I don't think Rakvere have too much of a shot here as when they fall apart they sink deep. Defeats against Dijon, Jakabpils, Shoeters, Tartu, Tampere or Norrkoping were well over this margin and Antwerp are better than almost all of these teams and the have the motivation working for them. Jenkins's potential absence makes them weaker under the rim where the home team is especially powerful. There are simply too many factors pointing to a convincing win by Antwerp. Details

Alba are without Kemp who is by far their best player and in addition, they had a tough game in Pecs three days ago and are facing Sopron on Saturday. I usually avoid games that don't mean too much to both teams, but Alba without Kemp is much weaker in offense. In over-time in Pecs, against a sub-par team in Hungarian terms, they were carried by Moore with 28 points. He will be guarded by the Montenegrin trio Mihailović, Popović and Šehović, and I believe no team in the league has such strong defense for positions 2 and 3. Before their win against Cedevita, Budućnost had 3 consecutive wins, and crashing out of Eurocup after three games is certainly not a good result for a team that has invested so much in the past season. After Alba, they have to face Partizan in Belgrade and Khimik in Podgorica. Three defeats and a win against Cedevita, followed by 2 two additional defeats (including a very real defeat against Partizan) are not an option, I believe the Podgorica team have more reasons to go for the win here as they have more quality anyway. Details

We are in for a really interesting game, a two-in-one actually. Not only are they playing to win here, they are playing for an 8-point difference. SPM's coach likes to control basketball with defense as a very important segment of the game. They will not rush after a defensive rebound and they will want to reduce the possession. In addition, the home team are without Moors who made them the first team in the competition in terms of possession but without him they have lost 21 balls against Oostende. In other circumstances, I would go for a total under, but due to realistic "threat" of free throw end game, I will go for the option for the first half. Free throws are possible in case they are fighting to win or to win by 8 points. Details

Both teams have won their previous Euroleauge game, and considering this is a debut in the elite competition, these wins have historical significance. Nanterre shocked Barcelona, but this Barce should have lost against Juventut, and even against Bruesa who will try not to get relegated. Budivelnik are a new team on paper, but their roster has a lot of experience and quality. They have the width on all positions and the recent form their main players, Lavrinovic and Summers in particular, shows that the away team have the upper hand. One cannot say Nanterre are in worse form by all means, but the French league simply doesn't have the quality as the Euroleague, and I daresay, not even as Budivelnik. The Ukranians have versatile players, their back court can play a solid defense, they are great in the transition and I expect them to make a difference there. This is a very important match, and beautiful game is not a priority for either team and the experience of Budivelnik's team is speaks a bit in favor of the Ukrainian champions. Details

Blazic is an important cog in the Zvezda machine, but far from a key factor on the offense. He was never a top shooter, the excellent first step and penetration are his fortes. This makes him great in the ABA league, where he scored 14 to Szolnok, which is his only over on this margin in the ABA league (9, 4, 8, 10). It is true that the situation is different in the Euroleague, and he averages 14 points, but the circumstances will be different today. Those who have seen how Panathinaikos play defense know what I am talking about. Gist and Lasme are practically incapable of letting you score an easy basket, and the pressure created by the guards of the Greek champion on the perimeter is immense. Radonjic wants a better defense. Pedulakis is not happy when his defense allows 60 points. The direction this match will be heading for is clear, and I just cannot see Blazic at double figures in a hard, tough game like this. The margin is available at the Marathonbet betting house as well. Details

The Hungarians are quite hyped ahead of hosting the eminent club from Greece although their reputation is not the best. Alba won the Hungarian title (won against the ABA League team of Szolnoki) but little is left of the last year's team. Their game is lead by the young 22-year-old Americans Kemp, Moore and Hobbs who don't have too much experience in matches like these. In addition, they are not really playing at home but in the 40 km distant Veszprem where they are not used to playing and the court and the surroundings are perhaps just a little bit better known to them than to the away team. PAOK are traditionally relying a lot on defense. Lately they are playing very well and they are full of confidence. They should dominate in rebounds and they are aware that a wrong step against Hungarians in this difficult group will put them in a submissive state. Alba went over this margin 2 out of 4 times in Hungarian league where they meet a much more modest teams than this one. Details

Mons have lost their two last games, and Roma won their last; this is the reason for these odds. I think it's a bit far-fetched. This is a 50-50 game, and I would say that Mons even have a slight advantage. Roma struggled against Brindisi, and we will see that Roma in the better part of this season. By losing Datome, they lost more than their best scorer, Lawal's departure took away their domination under the rim and lots of easy points after the pick. On the other hand, Mons have been playing well below their reputation, but Battle and Vaden can do a lot lot better, especially Battle, who had great numbers in a serious university such as Penn State, and then later in Europe. Roma's offense is too dependent on Goss, Jimmy Baron lost his shooting hand somewhere in Russia and has been fairly modest recently. In addition, this is the fourth match in 10 days for the Romans, and I'm not sure if they can keep up the pace, especially since Italians value their domestic championship more than the Eurocup. Details

Croatia is better that this odds suggest. Their confidence is at the top, finally all players are showing what is expected of them regarding their Euroleague reputation. Lithuania showed nothing special so far, yesterday they defeat Italy mostly because Italians were exhausted and because of their great perimeter play. Seibutis and Pocius so far in their careers have not been the players to make a difference with their shooting at this level of competitions and I doubt they can repeat the same game twice in 20 hours. Croatia will again have a lot of fan support and they are practically playing at home in Slovenia. Croatia has several good defensive options and to me they are the favorites in this match. Since Kleiza and Valenciunas played bad this tournament I really do not see a position at which Lithuania is dominant and it is worth to try this odds with a medium bet. Details

Gentile is Italian constant this tournament, their first scorer in the sea of offensively potent players. The fact that he comes of the bench and has a freedom to shoot is especially good for him. Furthermore, pressure has never been a problem for this player. Apart from that, he is surrounded with intelligent players and Belinelli, Diener and Datome like to make that extra pass so Gentile is equally deadly with his shooting and driving. He is physically powerful, has a great body control and he is almost unstoppable 1 on 1. He did not score against Croatia, but in his last two games he averages 20 points. He will not have problems with fatigue, he is the youngest player on that team and the trend of increased minutes we have seen in the last few games will continue today. Datome has problems with his knee and foot, which especially favors this bet. Datome will surely play, but Gentile should grab some minutes playing as power forward too. The Ukrainians play fast with short attacks which means more possessions for each team - an additional plus. Details

Aradori is playing well at this tournament and that is without question, he was always offensively very talented player. But, today Italy is playing against defensively solid Lithuania, especially on forward positions where they have Seibutis, Maciulis, Pocius and Kuzminskas. Aratori is starter, I expect Maciulis on him from the start, a player who left Batum on 8 points in 33 minutes. He will not have a chance to score much, especially since he is playing with Datome and Belinelli who will take the responsibility on themselves and Gentile takes over the role of a scorer after he enters the game from the bench. Aradori was left under this margin against Croatia and Slovenia. teams similar to Lithuania since they play good defense. I do not think Italy will score many points in this match, this will be a tactical game with Aradori in a supporting role. Details

Slovenia plays their second game in less than 15 hours after a significant physical and emotional exertion. According to Maljkovic, his players were awake for the whole night and they are obviously very disappointed. On this tournament we saw that Slovenia plays well only when they are playing energetic and at a high level and they lose if they lack energy. Yesterday they failed to dominate on the boards against the French and they lost, similar to the game against Croatia, Poland and Finland. Dragic played 30 minutes in his style, with full throttle and he invested a lot of energy in playing at both ends of the court. On the other side we have the Serbs who played 10 minutes against Spain, saw they had no chance and turned to today's game. Krstic played 13 minutes, Bjelica only 14, and they are Serbian key players. So, they are fresh for today's game and unlike Slovenia, Serbia was not significantly disappointed after losing by 30 points against Spain, since they know they came to Slovenia to qualify for WC. But I would have taken this margin even if they play after two day break, this is the key game for Serbia and they will play their best defense possible. In their last 10 games Slovenia breached this margin only two times, against Italy, a team that likes to play fast, and Spain against which they scored 53 points in the second half. Details

This margin is based on Diaw's last two games, against Serbia and Latvia, when he scored 12 and 16 points. The fact is that this is Diaw's best tournament in terms of efficiency. For example, two years ago in Lithuania he was on an average of 8 points (semifinals against Russia 6, quarterfinals against Greece 0). France need him above all as a player that connects the backcourt and front court, a very intelligent player who is not forcing too much. Today everything will be around Parker who is expected to be more aggressive. Batum also owes a lot and DIaw is here to give a few assists and contribute in rebounds. In a friendly match against Slovenia 20 days ago he scored 2 in 30 minutes. Slovenians are pretty 'tall' in the paint and Diaw will have trouble getting into clean situations and his mid-range shot is not as reliable as it used to be. Details

I do not believe in Italians putting up a fight. Even if they beat Spain, which is highly unlikely, the victory would not result in anything special. On the contrary, third place means taking on Lithuania, a tougher option than Serbia, while the fourth means quarter finals in two days’ time, then a day’s rest before the semifinals, and being third means they will have to play a match every day. Spain always stress the importance of this match, looking at Italy as „Belinelli+Datome“. Belinelli is playing well in Ljubljana, but not as efficiently as in Kopar. Against Slovenia 3/15 in game and 11 points, and Croatia 3/7 and 9 points. Spain have the best defense on the tournament, they play an aggressive game, and have several solutions for Belinelli. I think Ricky will guard him, and San Emeterio can take over, he is good in defense. This tip will pay of, firstly because Belinelli is expected not to play the whole match and secondly I repeat, I don t believe the Italians will put up a fight here. Details

Slovenia will be flexing muscles in this game, driven by Dragic brothers who's aggression and run break the opponents. If we analyzed their game here, it becomes clear they weren't doing that well. They beat Spain on account of their blackout in the third quarter, Italy because of rebounds and aggression. They lost against Croatia, a team similar to Greece. But, Greek individual players are better. Besides, Greece are getting better, they beat the Spaniards and they know this is the most important match of the tournament. Individually, they are better at each of the positions, they have many solutions for Nachbar and Dragic who Slovenia's most dangerous players, they are strong under the basket which ensures Vidmar and Begic won't out-jump them. To summarize, apart form playing home, Slovenia has no other advantages, but we have to take into consideration that the championship won't be same without Slovenia, at least form FIBA's point of view. Zoran Dragic won't play such an important role like against Italy, Greece are much better at defending wing positions, with Spanoulis in offense. Too many things here are in favour of Greece to miss on it. Details

After doing an MR last night, Mavrokefalidis is definitely out of the rest of Eurobasket, which means the rotation at position 5 is reduced. The options left at the centre position are Kavvadas and Kaimakoglu, but each of them has a flaw. Kavvadas is too young to contribute in a crucial match, whereas Kaimakoglu has mostly played on position 4 in the tournament. With him at position 5, the Greeks would have rebounding issues against Begic and Vidmar. Bourosis' match time has been small so far due to his problems defending the pick and roll play. The Slovenes do not play like that so Trinchieri will not give up on points that Bourousis can bring just because his defence is weak. With Spanoulis in play, Bourousis is a much better player, his attacking arsenal is great, he is a threat both when he is facing the basket and when he is turned away from it. Borousis should easily go over this margin in the estimated 25-30 minutes of play. Details

This may be a strange decision, to pick Slovenia after two defeats and against Italy who are on 5-0. This is the situation, Slovenians are in a situation that this might be a key game for them, with this win thy are very close to the quarterfinals. I will not talk about FIBA conspiracies here, about an unwritten rule that the host has to play in the final rounds because of the profit, but it should be kept in mind. Two and a half days of rest were really good for Slovenia, I am not so sure how the Italy will respond to the rest, have they been thrown out of the rhythm. Besides, Italy is, from a practically home team atmosphere in Koper, coming to full Stozice, a completely different atmosphere. We have an example of a game in Koper before Eurobasket, Slovenia won in a less competitive match. I am mentioning this because Slovenia created a big difference in the second quarter in which they played agressively, the Italians were unable to setup an offense. This is the Slovenia I expect to see today, maximally agressive, fast and eager to win. They have strong players in defense in positions 2 and 3, exactly where the Italians are the strongest offensively. All this combined makes me take this pick. Details

The Greeks are in a worst kind of position prior to the game with Spain. They can still decide their own faith and even have a small chance if they lose today's game. By most experts these are the two strongest teams. The Greek team is made in such a way that they won't be able to stand up to the Spaniards and Trinchieri prepared three centres to terorise Marca. They won't stop him but they can surely wear him out. They have a problem with defending and that only puts them in a position of the underdog. A tough game is expected and the Spaniards need the win. They dominated with their defense against weaker teams especially playing offense. The Greek wide line can defend against their attacks and they have some tough players to defend against Gasol. They are even stronger on the position of power forward. In a controlled game with less total points this handicap seems too big. The Greeks have showed that they should never be written off, both in club and national games. Trinchieri is to put all his best on court and thinks it is worth the stake. Details

Marc Gasol will play 32-35 minutes today, there is no question about it. He is a phenmenal asset to Spain's defense which has been dominant here, only because of him. By reading the statement from the Greek coach Trinchierio, one can see his fear of Spain's transition and his desire to control the game, and we can assume that the Greeks will sacrifice offensive rebounds in order to get back into defense more quickly. I won't waste many words on Gasol's rebounds, as he's been unstoppable in the NBA. He has averaged 8.5 rebounds on this tournament, but this average can be deceiving. He had 6 and 8 rebounds in 21 minutes against Poland and Georgia, respectively, 11 rebounds in 34 minutes against Croatia, 10 rebounds in 31 minutes against Czech Republic, and he only "flopped" against Slovenia with 7 rebounds, somewhat due to 6 rebounds from Claver, who has averaged 3.5 rebounds here. This is one of the reasons for this pick, Claver is not a typical number four, he isn't so prone to rebounds and this leaves a lot to Gasol. This bet is available at Nordic. Details