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Quality can be debatable, but Senegal are a much more organized team than Mali. Girese has had the time to put everything into order. He put the discipline back into the team and will use his ideal line-up for the first time since taking over.
Mali are definitely on the up but I doubt they can handle such an opponent . They have to find a new leader as irreplaceable Seydou Keita has announced his retirement. They are unorganized, weak in defense and I think a draw would be a huge success in a situation like this. Details

In games between teams that are out of form, the morale often plays a decisive role. Cyprus have gotten a new national team coach and will be willing to prove themselves, they will have the support from their fans and I can't see them as the underdogs here. I wouldn't say there is a difference in quality between the teams, especially in the light of absent players for the away team - their only advantage is their midfield, the teams are either on a par or the home team have the upper hand in other domains. The last team of this category that won in Cypris was Canada in 2009. They have lost against Luxembourgh and Azerbaijan and with a much stronger team than the one here. Details

I'll stay away from Rennes for the rest of the season, except in the Cup, because they're not really motivated, but I can't resist this offer, even with a smaller stake. Guingamp are their local rival, they lost to them in October because they played badly, and I believe they want to prove themselves now.
They were getting better in the last matches, won in three out of five, Montepellier got a lucky pass, and they lost in Ajaccio with a combined lineup. The front line is especially convincing, the reinforcements Ntep and Toivonen shoot hard, and they'll be supported by Alessandrini today (who has one of the best crosses in the league) who was out in Nantes, so they should be even more dangerous.
Guingamp will bunker themselves, but I doubt they can hold it for 90 minutes, and I also doubt their offense, who didn't have any effect in the seven out of the last 12 away matches, can come up with something. They lost all three in 2014, all against clubs weaker than Rennes.
With a one, you can try on guests not scoring a goal, or even a combination of two bets - a win without a goal conceded (a clean sheet win). Marathon covers it with 3.45 as I write this. Details

A very logical choice, home team have six over in seven games, visitors have seven in eight (average of 4.5 goals per game), both defenses are without two important players, both attacks are complete (assuming Rogić is ready, which is very probable).
In 11 derbies so far, we've had eight overs (plus both teams scored) and we've had 0-0 on three occasions, whenever Heart tried to slow down the game. This time, Heart have more reasons to attack, they are in great form, very motivated and they know Victory are tired. If the visitors opt for a more cautious approach with their young defenders, the chances are they will concede the first goal soon enough for this to go over. Details

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Creteil and Lens have played twice this season and this bet went through on both occasions. First, Creteil surprised Lens in a crazy League Cup game (4-3) and then they snatched away a point in a league game (1-1) when the red-and-yellows got their fair share of misses.
With two good results in last two rounds, the home team have regained their advantage over the relegation candidates and can play without too much pressure, i.e. with their usual offensive style. Their league average is 3.13 goals per game, they've scored 14 times in a row and they only got two clean sheets in that period. They have no major absences and their reinforcement from Arles, Sanger, will have his debut.
Lens failed to score a goal on two occasions in February, but the they also failed to score twice in last six months (4 out of 31 games altogether). Both situations were completely different than today - Laval decided to park the bus and the technically gifted Troyes held onto the possession for the better part of the game, which is something Creteil are not capable of.
They will be without their keeper Riou, crucial center-back duo Kantari-Yahia, midfielder Bourigeaud and winger Chavarria, while midfielder Cyprien and forward Ljuboja are back in the squad. So, defense is severely handicap while things remain the same up front. Details

I can't agree with bookmakers that Nantes are the only favorite here. The only thing going for them is the fans' support, and Rennes know very well what they can expect with their bitter rivals, so they're coming ready, no doubt about it.
Quality, shape, mood, and motivation for a rematch - everything's on the guests' side. The home team have been struggling for two months already, coach Der Zakarian is trying things out, mixing and matching, but he can't find his recipe. The only ones they defeated are Nice and Lorient's substitutes - with lucky goal in the final moments. Rennes were defeated only by Ajaccio, where they sent their substitutes.
Considering the tradition (September win was their first out of nine attempts, including friendly matches), basically all the arguments stand against them. Doublechance looks firm, and it's worth taking for a medium/high stake. Details

It's an interesting choice by the Alliance to give this match to one of the toughest referees of the league, Fautrel. Valenciennes and Sochaux are fighting for life, nobody will spare anyone here, and the home team's coach asked his team to be even more aggressive. There are plenty of candidates: Sinkal got a red one for Sochaux, and tehre are also Carlao, Marange, and a teenager will be playing in the midfield (Malsa or Illaimaharitra); Valenciennes have the dirty Ducuortioux, Cissa, Matera... Fautrel got four players sent off in the last eight matches where he was the referee.
A huge 4.0 is only offered by Betsson, unfortunately, but a few bookmakers offer 3.3-3.55, which is still a value bet that I heartily recommend. Details

Niort have had three consecutive unders in last few weeks but it's enough to look at the opponents to see the cause for that. the second best defense in the league (Metz), then the best defense (Arles) and then the fourth best (Clermont). They played against Metz at home and they scored two which has been their minimum since September, with only a single exception.
Today, they are hosting the first attack in the league, Caen, a team with an away average of 3.6 goals per game. Both will look for the win here - the home team have not even dreamed to come this far and will play without any pressure while the visitors are expected to be promoted and they have to win both home and away. Five of their last seven games went over 2.5.
Home manager Gastien has his best 11 for today, the away manager Garande is without important defender Agouazi and winger Autret Details

Ermis hosted AEK in the league on Sunday and won (with a little help from the ref) by 2-1 but the Cup is completely different story. Today's hosts have already given up on the league, their season was ruined by a completely disastrous fall season under their former coach Eleftheropoulous. New coach Nicoloaou, who did a major overhaul in January, has already said that the a Champions Legue spot is an unrealistic prospect and that they will try to get into Europe through the Cup. He used their almost entire reserve squad on Sunday, he rested their main defender Murillo, their two best strikers Pavlou and Mitidis etc.
The visitors are having one of their best season in their history, they are holding the fourth spot, they two points behind the third and they hava very tricky game against Nea Salamis on Monday so I have no doubts what they will focus on. They're a team of veterans, most of their first-team players are about 30 years old (some even 36-37) and they can't play three strong games in 8 days.
They will try to defend and try to get their chance in the second leg, but the injury of their crucial defender China will be a huge handicap. I doubt they will be able to hold on against a much better, fresher, and motivated team. Details

Arles are a better quality team, but given the current form of the both teams, as well as the fact the home team are tired from the Cup game in Lille, I don't see why they're given a role of favorite.
They played a tough 120 minutes against the reshuffled first division team, followed by a disappointing penalty shoot-out. That could have left trace on the players, but the fact remains, they haven't been doing their best for a while now in the championship. From time to time, they manage to score an easy and convincing win against the weakest teams, such as Istres and CA Bastile, but they didn't manage to beat anyone from the upper part of the table since September.
Arles are on a nine-game undefeated run, and they do best against the strongest teams. They managed to beat Troyes and Metz in January (Caen lost to Metz last Friday, and played a draw with Troyes the Friday before). Their main quality is their defense (the best one in the league with a 23/14 record). But, two new offensive signings joined in January - midfielder Dias, and winger El Gabbas. The team might get much more dangerous defense vise with the two of them.
It wouldn't even be surprising if they get the three points here, but a point is definitely a good option. I think that not trying a double chance at this price would be a shame. I'll only add that they won 3-2 in September last year, when the difference was much greater, and played a 1-1 draw away. Details

Encourage by ending their poor away run, Chateauroux are hosting Troyes. A convincing win in Bastia has put them in the safe zone and if they confirm this in front of their own fans, they will have a few calmer weeks.
Ever since new coach Garcia took over, they have been great at home - four wins, with at least two goals scored, and an unfortunate defeat against Angers when they deserved at least a point. Apart from the long-term absent Bourgeois, the only player missing is their new defender Polomat who got injured on his debut. Their midfield will be reinforced by recovered Filkor. The visitors had a tough week which they conclcuded with three points against the strong Lens, whom they completely outplayed. The winter crisis is obviously behind them and will go for the spots they deserve to hold in the games to come. They beat their current hosts by 3-0 in September and it would not be a surprise if they repeat that, but it wouldn't be surprising if the concede a few as well, especially as they are coming without their important defensive duo N'Diaye-Thiago. Their front line consisting of men with the most assists (Nivet) and second most goals (Gimbert) in the league is intact. We have two teams that will not go for a compromise here, their respective defenses are weakened and they both have 5 overs in last 7 games with an average of 3.09 and 2.7 goals per game, respectively. Things are pretty much clear and as the bookies seem to believe this is a game for an under, we should take advantage of that. Details

The postponed match in Le Poire really helped coach Echouafni to organize his major offensive reinforcements that arrived in late stages of the transfer window - Moyo, Poyet and Dia. The young expert has one of the best teams at his disposal but inefficiency has been very costly so far.
Even though the results don't show it, they have improved their form in January: they played against three Top 5 teams and got 2 draws, and they lost their last game against Bourg-Peronnas by 0-1 after an incredible mix of bad luck and refereeing mistakes. It was best described by their new acquisition Poyet (Caen's captain up to recently) by saying that they would have been severely mistreated had they won a point. Something like that is not expected to happen as Dunkerque are a slightly easier task and they are fully prepared for them as they understand they could be relegated to the fourth division.
A draw means very little for them so I will not cover that option (of they go into a tight finish, they will surely go for all or nothing), I'd rather lower my stakes and go for a clear win for the home team. Details

Auxerre played well in the Cup so far, bumping out Nancy and Dijon, but they will meet an even tougher opponent now, Rennes. Allong with the away team winger Ntep, up to recently the best player of Auxerre whom they sold to Rennes late in January, will also be arriving to Abbé Deschamps.
The young French representative was their main weapon, which is obvious from the three games since he left: two defeats and one barely managed win vs the weak Istres, although they had an extra player for 50 minutes.
The management expected their other major talent, Haller, to step up, but he failed them most. As their best remaining forward, Kitambala, is injured (as is winger Segbefia), their offense does not seem like it can surprise a motivated team from the first league.
Everything points towards Rennes being highly motivates, as the Cup is their only remaining chance to get into a European competition. Ajaccio ended their streak of six games without a defeat, but coach Montainer rested some important starters for this game, such as Makoun and Oliveira. Along with them, they will also be getting a few recovered players back, such as center back Boye, who struggled with a knee injury since September.
With three forwards eager to prove themselves (along with Ntep they also got Toivonen and Grosicki), I believe they can resolve this in 90 minutes. A no-tie outcome looks very solid, and one could also consider a no goals conceded outcome for the red-black team. That would be their fifth in seven games. Details

Having done the fall part of the season brilliantly, Dordrecht deserved to get on top of the table. The question is, how long can they stay there? They lost the defender duo Van Nief and Varela, which means coach Van Den Ham has to build the new defense up. A few talented juniors from the first division clubs joined. While the talent is not a problem with them, the experience, or the lack of it, is. The first three games of 2014 made it clear that things weren't going to go very smoothly. And now, they have to face one of the most efficient offenses in the league. They have been scoring two or more goals for five consecutive games until Friday. Winger Schokker from Cambuur joined the well experienced trio Resida-Weghorst-Berkamp (scored a total of 21 goal), but he's still only coming on as a substitute sometimes. Coach Gall has no problems with absent players - midfielder Meulens is suspended, but top scorer Korte (11) is back.
The +0,25 handicap on the home team is quite acceptable, but my first option is definitely the overpriced team over. It is more likely these teams (Emmen has an average of 3,28 in the league, Dordrecht 3,44) will play 2-3, than 1-0, and the odds are much higher too. The visiting team conceded two or more goals in six out of the last 10 games. Details

A very important game for both teams: Laval need every point in their relegation battle and Dijon are trying to get closer to the leading trio. The home team managed to fight off Lens last Saturday and a win here would round up a great week, but they have too look for that win without the suspended Bekamenga, the player show scored 11 out of 24 goals (in 22 rounds), while their main playmaker Baby is still recovering from injury and will perhaps play as a sub. But their defense is complete and their new reinforcement from Monaco, Gary Couliably, will probably have his debut.
The away team have struggled with center-back injuries (Varrault and them Remy), but coach Dall'Oglio eventually found a replacement in Paulle and they managed to keep a clean sheet in last two games. The duo has recovered but Paulle will keep his spot. But they are without two out of three players who scored against Brest - Marie and Gastien and their best forward Kone is still out of action.
So: Ligue 2, an important game, in-form defenses, weakened attacks...all the ingredients are there. Between the equally well-payed under 2.25 and "any of the teams not to score", I will go for the latter option due to a better head-to-head ratio (9 out of last 10 games), while it would also be good to spare a small stake on the 0-0 result. Details

Stevenage are cut off at the bottom of the ranking table, and have nothing more to wait for, they need to get wins in every game, at least at home. They've had nine days to prepare for this game, there are no new absences and the return of John Mousinho from Preston should make them stronger, as his goals won them the League One spot two years ago in the first place.
They are hosting one of the most offense oriented teams of the league, Gillingham, who play offense regardless of whether they play at home of away, and their forward duo Akinfenwa-McDonald have just reached the peak of their form. The away team scored 10 overs in 12 matches, and only managed not to score a goal on one occasion. The home team don't do under much either, with eight overs in 13 games and a 2.62 average.
The first duel in Priestfield was won 3-2 by the Gils, and last yearn it was 2-2 in Stevenage. The weather is fair, with eight degree temperature. Everything points to over, and I think one could even go for a higher margin here. Details

The book makers set the odds according to the outcomes of their last season's official games, but the situation here is entirely different. Both teams had just started the preparation period, they're going to do a friendly game at 11 in the morning and another practice in the afternoon - I think that the chance we'll see a lot of goals scored are quite slim. Houston are a bit better prepared, they beat their junior team 4-0 yesterday, but the Rapids will be a lot tougher nut to crack. They have to do it without their play maker Davis, who played for the national team last night. Another mid-fielder Creavalle is injured, and winger Driver just got there from England. It's therefore questionable whether he'll be of use to then in this game.
The visiting team lost their coach Pareja, and they decided to give Mastroni, who was the captain of the team up to recently, a chance to lead the team in preseason. He is a well respected player, national team and club's legend. His position at the club will probably become more permanent soon - if he doesn't lose these kind of game by more than a few goals. The situation there is still messy, some players left, some are about to leave, but that will probably just force him to assume a more cautious approach. Midfielder Powers and forward Mwanga are going to miss the game due to injuries. Details

Lyon are doing great, they haven't scored less than 2 goals in the last 11 games, and this will be one of the toughest challenges they have to face - Gorucuff is out for the first time and I think the moment has come to end this (in France very infrequent) streak. The bet will do with 0-2 as well, but I'm not counting on that outcome much.
Rennes have been doing quite well against powerful teams so far, and their approach has always been extremely defensive. Only PSG with their best line up, managed to score three goals against Rennes. They played 0-0 against Lyon away, 1-1 against Marseille, 0-2 against Monaco away, 1-0 against Lille away. They didn't beat anyone, but lost only to the best.
The head to head record is almost perfect - only one over in the last 7 games, three out of the last 15. Those three were at three goals exactly. The odds for 3,5 are as high as 1,3. Details

Bastia dominate against stronger teams than Guingamp at Cesario. The guests can only get "crumbs" - counterattacks, set pieces, and stuff like that. Maybe they manage to score some of it, but with these odds, the risk is worth taking. Especially because the important Landreau came back to the goal.
The stats are more than clear: Bastia defended themselves in five out of six matches at home (seven out of eight if we count the cups); Guingamp scored once in five matches, four in ten matches regardless of where they played. Details