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Sporting and Las Palmas are playing one of the matches today which is worth six points. Numbers are the absolute imperative for both teams because it's hard to even conclude who needs them more. Because of everything pointed out, there should be no lack of ferocity in this match, and the bet365's offer of 5.5 cards could easily be surpassed.
When it comes to statistics, we have to take into consideration the matches in which these clubs played against teams similar to them, so matches in which points matter.
In Sporting's matches, the cards went like this: La Coruna (6 yellow cards), Vallecano (6 yellow and 1 red), Betis (2 yellow), Granada (10 yellow and 1 red), Malaga (4 yellow), Levante (9 yellow), Betis (3 yellow). Do, only three times in matches against equal opponents there were less than 5.5 cards, and that was in the early phase of the championship.
With the away team the situation is like this: Levante (6 yellow), Vallecano (7 yellow), Eibar (4 yellow), Getafe (3 yellow and 1 red), Deportivo (7 yellow).
The matches against tougher opponents, such as Barcelona, Real, Valencia, Sevilla or Celta aren't on the list not because the statistics don't favor them, but we're talking about a different type of matches and they shouldn't be put in the same context.
The match will be refereed by Undiano Mallenco, one of the most famous Spanish referees who has an easy hand when it comes to cards. This season Mallenco refereed the following matches in the championship: Rayo - Valencia (4 yellow), Atletico - Real (10 yellow), Levante - Sociedad (7 yellow and 1 red), Athletic - Espanyol (8 yellow).
After everything we've mentioned, I think the 5.5 card margin is a little too low and that it's worth playing for this match.
Let's mention how bet365 have a total sum of card which is at 5.5 and they sum it up that a yellow card is worth as 1 card, and a red one as 2. Details

I don't see why Sevilla are the favorites in this game. Their only advantage are more sounding name and better team on paper. The team is better on paper, but if we consider all absences, and point out Ever Banega's who is their best player and the engine of this team. This is a significant handicap for Sevilla who will struggle without him. Furthermore, Sevilla are horrible in away games, they haven't won a single championship away game, and they faced much worse teams than Deportivo (Las Palmas, Eibar, Levante...).
Deportivo have been playing great this season. They honestly surprised me because I wouldn't call them a top team based on the names, but Victor Sanchez has put them together well and it is no accident they are placed this well. They lost once at home this season, but that was more due to bad luck than bad performance.
I is also profitable here to bet on home team's win, but I will take the Asian handicap +0,25, which means that in case of a draw, we will get half of the profit. Deportivo are playing well, they are not having any significant problems with absences, while Sevilla are struggling in away games and have problems with absences of important players. The odds are missed and we should use that. Details

I often avoid statistics in betting, because even though it shows a lot, it also sometimes hides important facts. But I will start today's prediction with statistics, and it says that Granada were in the over in six of 11 games (2,5 goals), while the away team's record is 3-8 in favor of over. Athletic have played unders in the first two rounds, and later they only played 0-0 against Sociedad in the local derby. However, we should take into consideration the Basque team's form that has been great. Aritz Aduriz and Inaki Williams are a killer attacking duo that has been regularly scoring (in each of their last seven games, Athletic scored at least two goals).
On the other side, Granada conceded in every game this season and that says enough about their futility. However, Granada also haven't scored in only three games, and two of them were at Valencia and Real Madrid where it is illusory to expect this team to attack. We should use these odds on over of goals. This is a safer option, and you can also try with o2,25 or o2,5 with adjusted stake. Details

At the very start I will say that my pick here is the bed with more than 2.5 goals, and there are more reasons for that. Of course, when we talk about this match, the first thing everyone will have on their mind is Athletic's great shape, but the bet is not based just on that.
Athletic really are in good shape, and they look quite impressive when it comes to scoring goals. In the last four matches they scored 11 goals. The good goal-getter shape came hand-to-hand with the recovery of Inaki Williams who, together with Aritz Aduriz is a killer duo who are capable of filling up anyone's goal.
Espanyol are in the middle of the table, but they have the worst defense in the league who already conceded 21 goals. They sold the excellent goalkeeper Kiko Casillo this summer to Madrid, and with all due respect, Pau Lopez is nowhere near his capacity (a lot of conceded goals are his fault). Lopez isn't really aided by the defense, and when the most standard member of that defense, Alvaro Gonzalez, is questionable, that's an additional minus.
Even though Athletic are in good shape, the defense this season wasn't at their greatest all the time, and today we have an additional minus because Aymerico Laporte won't be playing. If you ask me, I think he's Athletic's best defense player. If we take a look at the last ten matches, we will see that Athletic only twice managed to keep their goal intact.
On the other hand, in those last ten matches, Espanyol missed a chance to score goals only three times, and if you ask me their offense is led by the very good Felipe Caicedo, Espanyol's biggest strength.
If we look at this championship statistically, both teams in seven out of ten matches went into an over, and that's why this bet definitely has a value. Details

Lorient's form is improving and they cannot miss such chance as Troyes' arrival. The away team are bad even with their strongest lineup, and they are coming to Brittany without half of their team. Home team's win imposes itself here as a logical outcome, and I would even go for the Asian handicap. Why? Primarily because Lorient are a team that often strives to outplaying and playing one goal more tactics. I don't believe that after a possible lead, Lorient will be happy with the win, they will try to maximally use the problems of the away team. On the other hand, we have a certain profit here even if they win by one goal. Details

I couldn't believe it when I saw the odds at the visitors. The only reason they're so high is the name of the visting team. I've been talking about how bad Ajaccio are round after round, which they constantly keep on proving through their games. Nice are, on the other hand, on fire at the moment. Nice beat Bastile 3-1 away, St. Etienne 4-1 and Rennes 4-1 away. All of those teams are much better than Ajaccio. Ben Arfa is doing great and pushing his team forward and we have to take advantage of that while it lasts. Nice's run will come to an end but I don't that will happen today because Ajaccio seem completely out of their depths in this league, Details

The betting houses put up odds which suggest that there is a 50% chance that Toulouse will win, and 50% chance that Angers won't lose. I don't see any logic behind it, so it's no coincidence that Toulouse are at the bottom, and Angers at the top. This season Toulouse managed to win only once, in the first round against Saint Etienne. I will be fair and say they deserved to win against Marseille, but Marseille are not a good measure of quality this season. Toulouse's problem is the fact that they play quite rough (in fact, not that rough as much as the referees were too rough), and that brings in cards and suspensions. When we add to it the numerous injuries, then we see that their situation is far from ideal.
Angers, on the other hand, are playing great, both at home and away. Their away efficiency is 3-0-1 this season, which is phenomenal in the French league. In away matches it's all down to a firm defense and good counter-attacks, and for now they're doing that great. Today they have one important absence, but when we compare it to Toulouse, it doesn't seem so important anymore. If you ask me, the hosts' win should be valued with 3.00 odds because there is no reason to favor them like this. Because of that I suggest X2 for the away team, but with an Asian handicap because you get some better odds. Details

Considering everything we know about this match, I really don't get these odds. Lorient and Bordeaux have a similar roster, maybe the guest have a slight advantage, but because of the home court, this would be a 50-50 match in normal circumstances. But, circumstances are everything but normal today. Half of Sagnol's team is out, and he just has to play with the same players. Also, they had to go to Kazan this week, and like the coach said, everyone can't wait for a chance to get some rest. They have quality but the tough rhythm and the injuries take their toll, as was obvious in Nice. Yes, Bordeaux did beat Lyon after that, but even more of Lyon's players are out, and their coach saved their best players for the Champions League. Lorient are a decent team, maybe not for the top, but they definitely belong in the upper half of the league table. They're playing at home today, their team is compact, and they're trying to make up for one of the weaker matches they played this season, against Montpellier. I've been thinking about taking a one, but even an outcome without a draw for Lorient sounds great, so no sense in risking it. Details

I was convinced before the season started that Gazelec are far the weakest team in the league, but if we are to judge by the first four rounds, that's becoming the truth. This little Corsican club simply don't have the line up for Ligue 1. In the first four rounds they had a lot of absences, but it's questionable how much they can do with returning players. Last week they finally played somewhat better, but they also lost points.
Guingamp are no superpower, but they're lead by a good manager Gourvennec, and if you ask me, they are a team for the first half of the league table. They didn't start out well, but they found their shape in the last two rounds and won twice. In the last round they played a really good match against Nice, and before that they beat the strong Marseille. They have no absences and I'm sure they'll win for the third time. This is the early phase of the season, quotas against GFCO are still very good and they should be used. Details

I absolutely don't understand the odds set today, that favor Angers so much. Yes, Angers are euphoric! The team that just got to Ligue 1 are still defeatless three rounds in, and have seven points. But, let's put things to context here. Who did Angers beat this year? Montpellier who are falling apart, where the coach and the president are fighting and they lost all their matches, and Gazelec who are the worst team of the league, in my humble opinion. On the other hand, Nice have one defeat, but that was against the strong Monaco in a match where Nice were leading and were playing well. In the next two rounds, we saw the good old Nice again, even though they were criticized for gambling away the lead in Troyes. The home team haven't conceded a goal this season yet, but now they'll face a strong offense. I think the guests could even win today, and considering the fantastic odds, I'll take +0.25 handicap for the guests that will bring you profit even if it's a draw. Details

The odds set at this game might have been good if the situation at Viktora was ideal. Though even like that, one should not have underrate Vojvodina much. However, the situation at the Czech team is far from ideal. The Czech fans got used to their team having success in Europe the past few years. But they recorded a shock knock-out to Maccabi, which affected the team so much it resulted in some bad results in the domestic championship, which in turn, saw coach Koubek get sacked. A new coach taking over could give the team a necessary positive reaction but it seems like Krejci has spent too little time at Plzen for any great changes.
On the other hand, Vojvodina have been doing well both in Europe and the national championship, where they beat the defending champions Partizan this weekend 3-2.
I think the home team got overrated by the bookies here, probably because of their good European campaigns over the past few years. However, that's all in the past now. Victoria's reality is different now. I think that going with the +1.5 handicap at Vojvodina can be good here. The home team might win, even though I don't think they will crush the opponents. Details

We have an unmotivated home team which accomplished all goals and which hasn't been playing for anything in the last two rounds. We should take into consideration the fact that Villareal are playing without half of their team and that their form has significantly dropped due to numerous absences in the previous period. They earned their only win on the previous weekend, but that was against unmotivated Elche who were missing half of their starting line up at that time. On the other side, we have visitors who are fighting for Europe and whose best player Camacho is returning to the team today. I wouldn't be surprised by an away win here today, but x2 pays well so let's go with that. Details

The end of season is coming close, and now we have to take into consideration the teams' motivation more and more when we bet. Sevilla beat Eibar yesterday, and skipped Valencia at the league table, which means that the guests need to win to get one of the places leading to the Champions League again.
On the other hand, Rayo secured staying in the league, and can't get to Europe. So, the club fulfilled all of their goals, it's getting more likely that Paco Jemez will leave the club this summer, and when he says something like that in public, it's questionable how much he'll dedicate himself to the rest of the matches.
I often offered bets on Rayo in the last seasons, that team is really likeable even though their lack of quality means they have to save themselves from being eliminated every season, but they still play good football. But, there's a big difference in quality between Valencia and Rayo. Even if they were both equally motivated, the Bats should be big favorites. In a situation like this one, you just have to bet on the guests' win. Details

I don't think the bookmakers took into consideration the guests' absences, and the odds were set as if both teams were playing with their best lineups. I wanted to bet 1 on Real at first, but since AH 0 brings over 2, it's better to pick this bet, with the security. Real haven't been brilliant lately, but they're always good at home, and can beat anyone. If nothing else, as a gift for their coach's birthday, they'll confirm staying in the league against the decimated Villarreal whose form is awful anyway. Details

I've been thinking about betting on Sevilla and the only minus was that they will have to play a Europa league game. However, when I saw that Valencia got beat yesterday, this became a must bet. Sevilla finally have a chance to get to the position leading to the Champions League, and that's often a lot more important than Europa league for Spanish teams.I checked the team Unai Emery will take out today, and there won't be any calculations, Sevilla will start with their best. On the other hand, the home team are awful. Let's just say they lost 1-9 to Real, and 0-3 against Almeria in the last round, and Almeria are far from being a serious team. Resino got mad after that, kicked out half of the players, reported some new ones today, but the question remains, how all of that will affect the team. This is a local derby, as well, which means the guests won't spare anyone. In the last eight duels, Sevilla celebrated in seven, and one was a tie. I'm under the impression that the difference between these two is bigger than ever, and with these odds, you just have to bet on the guests' win. Details

Hats off to Barcelona for their top spot, Cup final and the convincing win in Paris but I think the odds at Valencia are ridiculous, even offensive. The odds are set as if Barcelona are to meet a semi-amateur team today, not the one fighting for spot three in Primera. Valencia recorded a total of 4 defeats this season, only one of which by more than two goals. That was a lot time ago in La Coruna in their bay far worst performance of the season. All due respet, I don't think Barca will win by 3 goals gere and I think that betting at Valencia +2, given the odds, has great value. Barca are good but they just got back from Paris and have the CL second leg game next week. Their last championship round proved they can be vulnerable too. Details

I don't understand what would make Cordoba such a big favorite against Elche today. True, both teams are at the bottom of the league table, but the guests are still a much better team, in my opinion. Cordoba finally ended their series of defeats since getting a new coach, managed to get one tie after ten consecutive defeats, and I think that shows their quality. I said Elche only got one point in the last four rounds, but let's give things a context. Elche lost to Sevilla and Valencia twice, and despite playing better than Getafe, they didn't have luck and lost. Cordoba won as a home team only once this entire season, and that was against Granada who are next to last, and almost written-off. Elche weren't exactly brilliant in away matches, but they managed to beat Ray, Athletico, and Eibar, which I think are all better teams than Cordoba.
Checking out the absences, the home team aren't in a better situation, quite the contrary, so I really don't understand why the bookmakers are favoring them. Details

There's no doubt that Villarreal are a better team than Getafe, but at the same time we have to take into consideration their current shape, and it's all but good. Villarreal are falling, and only thanks to the good efficiency at the opening of the season. They haven't scored a goal in four rounds, and the ability to score one today will be made more difficult "thanks" to the absence of Luciano Vietto who became one of their first offense options.
On the other hand, Getafe rose quite a lot and will soon will ensure the stay in the league. Although, I don't think they're Villarreal's level (at least not on paper), but I think they're worth more than the relegation battle.
The odds for today's meeting are completely unrealistic in the away team's advantage. I can accept they're the minor favorites, but this is played on Getafe, and when we take into consideration the form and motivation, then the hosts are worth playing at. By winning, Getafe would be close to staying, while Villarreal have a safe advantage in front of the second team, and they can't go into the Champions League anyway. I think the hosts can win, but I will take the option which brings some profit in case of a draw. Details

I have to admit I was shocked with the odds for this match, but in a positive way. Honestly, I expected around 1.3 - 1.4 for the home win, and some 1.6 - 1.7 on the Asian handicap -1, and then I saw this I don't know what's the deal, but I don't see reason in offering such high offs on a team who are firstly known as a home team and who can beat anyone at their home court. On the other hand, we have a club with eight defeats, the worst roster in the league, who have problems with absences and who have a new coach from the middle of the week. Real for the first time in the season don't have problems with absences or suspensions, and the difference between these two teams is huge. I expect a convincing win by the home team. Details

The desperate away team Espanyol are coming to Deportivo who need points. The ideal scenario for a home win, and when I saw Segio Garcia is out, I was even more sure in my choice.
Maybe it will sound strange that I'm offering a bet on a team who took a single point in the last five rounds, but you should first bake your cookies and then eat them. Three defeats came from Real Madrid, Sevilla and Valencia, teams with whom Deportivo dan't be in the same sentence. The draw was in an away game against Almeria and the only failure was the home defeat against Celta. But, that was a huge local derby full of emotions in which Deportivo were more than just solid, but they failed because of the suspension of their player.
I don't have a lot of things to say about Espanyol. They can hardly get better or worse until the end of the season, falling out of the cup was devastating for them and I have an impression they're all waiting for it to end.
The odds are very good so I will take the safe bet and the hosts' win without an unresolved outcome. Details