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I think the Nigerians are being well underrated here. The main reason for it are group stage games. It's true that Nigeria secured two the quarterfinals after two games but also, we need to say that they won all the games narrowly. However, what caught attention of many is numerous defensive shortcomings and mistakes the defensive line made. It's no surprise that Nigeria conceded 6 goals in three games. When the attack works well, those mistakes are easy to make up for but offensive brilliantly rarely sees a team succeed in football. The Danes definitely haven't done brilliantly in the group stage but they were able to play draws against Iraq and beat South Africa, who are approximately at Nigerian quality level. Granted, Denmark lost to Brazil but Brazil were in crisis and came to this competition with a team more powerful than other teams here.
Also, I mentioned in the preview about the recent Nigerian defeat to Denmark 6-2. Granted, the teams were identical but they were Olympic teams preparing for this competition. We won't see such trashing today but the result says a lot about these two teams.
Bottom line is, Nigeria have the upper hand in offense and Denmark have the upper hand in defense. That is the Africans are favorites, which makes no sense. I'm sure Denmark can stay undefeated but just to be sure, I'll go with the +1 option because I don't think the Africans will trash Denmark- I think this is a close game, especially because it's knock-out stage. Details

This is a typical under since we have two defense-oriented teams and a game which is very important. That is why we shouldn't expect any kind of a fast-paced or offense-oriented game. Saint Etienna got limited to under 2,5 goals in 25 out of 37 games, Lille in 28. The home team didn't concede a single goal in 16 games, while Lille didn't concede any in 17 games. Also, Boufal is out with an injury at Lille. Without him, they become completely unproductive. Benzia and Obbadi are also out. I expect a tough game which could easily end as a goalless draw but since the odds are rather good, I'll go with the 2,25 goals under. Details

Usually, I'd agree with these odds, but Nantes' players have been acting as if their vacation started for some time now. The home team secured staying in the league, they can't get to Europe, and are playing with no ambitions. Nantes got only one point in the last five rounds, and even then they were outplayed despite having a player more (away against Marseille). Nice, on the other hand, are in great form, they've been in a winning run since Ben Arfa came back, and are very close to a historic success - getting placed to the Champions League.
With these circumstances, the guests could easily win, but I'll pick a safer option, that the guests will leave without a tie. Details

I was really surprised with these odds for the home team's win because I expected it at about 1.5.
The home team are after the Champions League, and have been in a fantastic form since Hatem Ben Arfa came back, with a 3-game winning run at home, and their 3-0 win against the direct rival Rennes stands out.
Then there are the guests who managed to lose Troyes in a disastrous match. They only got one point in the last five away matches, and they are also struggling with absences today (I'd point out Diego, Kankava and Bifouma).
I personally think that Nice will win convincingly, so picking a handicap on them seems worthwhile, but the odds on one are phenomenal, so I would go with the regular home team's win. Details

The odds at Touluse started dropping significantly yesterday, which is not surprising. The home team's coach can call for caution all he wants but the fact is, Lorient are no longer in danger of being relegated and they play cup semis this week. The media agrees Lorient will play with a different lineup. They will already be focused on the Cup.
On the other hand, Toulouse are at the bottom but Dupraz managed to get them much better. They are basically injury-free and have managed to get closer to the rest of the league. However, they still need to keep on winning. They proved they can deal with the pressure so far and I believe they can take advantage of Lorient's approach here.
Just to be safe, I'll go with the visitor's win without a draw. Details

The odds on the home team win today are around 1.5, and -1, almost 2.00 on the Asian handicap. In my opinion that doesn't make much sense. I will mention only the last five of Getafe's results from away games: 0-2, 0-6, 0-4, 0-3, 0-3, and we will all agree that Rayo, Levante, Malaga and Las Palmas (one defeat to Barca) are not at Villareal's level. When we add to that Velazquez, Verginio and probably Vigary's absences and horrible form, I don't see how Getafe could win this. It is true that Villareal have a tight schedule, and that they haven't been winning too convincingly this season, but the team is getting complete, there is less and less absences, and the home team will use this. Villareal have a lot of ambition in the Europa League, but it is hard to earn the Champions League through that, and they are 4th in the championship and they have no plans of compromising that position with home pitch slip ups against a team of Getafe's level. Details

This is a relegation battle match and by default we should expect a tough game without a lot of goals. But that doesn't seem likely today, and I will start with the stats. So, in 39 games, Rayo went over 2.5 goals 22 times, while Getafe have 15-15. If we look only at the last 10 games, Rayo's efficiency is 8-2 and Getafe's 5-5. Rayo's team are much more important for this bet, they have been playing bad defense for years, and this season, when they lost two goalkeepers (Tono and Cobeno) everything went into extremes, so Rayo have the worst defense in the league. They conceded 63 goals, and that is 7 goals more than the next worst team. On the other hand, their offense is great, no matter who is in the attack, Rayo score. Their top defender Ze Castro will be absent today. The away team do not have a much better defense and another minus is Velazquez's absence. The only downside to this bet is the fact that Getafe's attack is not as efficient, but they regularly score against Rayo. Also, I think the information that a draw does not mean much to either team is in our favor. The bottom of the league table is crowded, there are only 8 rounds left, and today's three points could be crucial in the relegation battle. Details

The odds at home team's win are under 1,9 which would be a probability of over 50%. I don't see why Marseilles are such heavy favorites here? They won only two our of their 15 home games - in August to the worst team in the championship Troyes and Bastila in September. Bastila are very bad away. Marseille didn't win home for 6 months. Looking at away games, Olympique are a bit better since they recorded their last win in February. But, only luck saved them from defeat or a draw there.
Things at the club is far from great. The fans are allegedly very angry and the players seem to have lost confidence. Their Spanish coach is very close to getting sacked, while Diarra and Alessandrini aren't on the team. That says it all about them.
On the other hand, Rennes are getting better. They got 7 points in the last 3 games. Lyon were closer to winning but getting back from a two-point deficit against a team like that says it all about you. Courbis didn't start well at Rennes. but his team is getting better each next round. They are already in spot 5 with a good chance of getting in Champions League. Two of their players are back and that is good for the team.
After all I've said, I would not be surprised by the visitors' winning but I'll go with the safer X2 option. The only advantage Marseille have here is tradition but that shouldn't not play an important role here. Details

I understand why Athletic are made the favorites, but I don't think all the circumstances were considered. First, Athletic are tired after the tough rhythm they've had in the last days, and they played Valencia in Europe on Thursday. Valverde announced rotations and didn't want to confirm fixed starting eleven. Aduriz was announced, but he was questionable and I wouldn't be surprised if he started on the bench.
On the other hand, Betis are great, they had a week to rest and there are no important absences. Yes, the experienced Juan Vargas is out, but I think there are good substitutes.
Also, it should be relevant that Athletic have 7-3-3 on San Mames this season, so they've won barely half the matches there. Betis are great in their away matches, and have 5-4-5 outside their Villamarin. This statistic alone shows that Athletic can't be this much of a favorite. I think the guests can remain undefeated today, but with these odds, I'll take +1 on Betis today. Details

Bastia are a typical home team who is always playable when they're playing at Furiani. However, I didn't opt for Bastia due to a reason that they're a team who play well at the home court, but there are several other reasons. First of all, we have to say that the home team are really playing well. In the last five matches, they won four times (they lost only to the strong Monaco), and not once in those four matches did they concede a goal, and they're already dreaming of Europe. During that period they had a lot of problems with absences (in the back line), but for today it's almost complete.
I have a positive opinion about Lorient, mostly due to the reason that they're one of the rare offensive teams in the league. But, today they're without their first forward Moukandjo, which is a significant handicap. Also, we shouldn't forget that Lorient played in the cup this week in which they earned the semi-finals, and they are surely tired from it all. Lorient are not a bad visiting team, but they're far from scaring anyone.
I think the home win here is a realistic outcome, but considering we have no reasons to take risks, let's take the home team's win with no draw so we can secure ourselves in case of a draw (even tough Bastia don't have a single draw at home in the whole season). Details

In my opinion, these odds are totally wrong, and that is probably because Celta are high on the league table and they recorded two straight wins. But that Celta played badly against Getafe and won only because of good luck. On the other hand, Villareal are 4th for a reason, and they are recording great results. We just have to look at whom they faced recently and the results they achieved. In two games against Napoli and one against Atletico (two of the three were away) Villareal conceded only one goal. I admit that Costa and Musacchio's absence is a handicap for them, but Musacchio was injured for a good part of the season anyway, and Mario, Bonera, Ruiz and Bailly are strong defenders and they will find a suitable replacement for the due. I am convinced that the away team can remain undefeated at Balaidos, and maybe they can win all three points. Celta are good hosts, but they won 6 and lost 7 games at home, while Villareal lost only 3 away games. Details

I have to admit that 2.5 goals odds surprised me, I expected 1.65. There are two reasons for odds to be higher for an over, one - the results Betis get since Merlino is leading them, and two - the importance of the match in the relegation battle.
The guests are the reason why I want to bet on over. They're atypical team from the bottom part of the league table and get the points thanks to their offense. Rayo's defense is the worst in the league, but their offense are great. Rayo went over in the last six away matches, and out of 11 away matches, they only stayed under three times. They have more unders at home, but mostly because their weaker opponents close off. However, the under-over statistics for Rayo are 7-18, telling everything we need to know.
Betis' total statistic aren't that favorable, thanks to Merino who changed their game style since he came. We should notice that Real score in every round (expect against Villarreal when Merino was at the bench after the 2-3 series of defeats and was forced to bunker up). Also, Merino's Betis' didn't concede a goal only once, so they're not really a rock solid defense. Ruben Castro is their best player , and their offensive line doesn't look bad so I'm sure he can pierce the hollow defense 1-2 times. On the other hand, Rayo will hardly stay at zero. Details

Guingamp are getting better and they won 10 points in the last 10 games. Even if things were ideal on both teams, the home team would have been closer to winning. Given all the problems the visitors are dealing with right now, betting on the home team makes a lot of sense.
First of all, Bordeaux are hit by massive injury struggles and that affects the results, especially since goal keeper Carrasso got injured. Also, unlike the home team, the visitors played a 120-minute long Cup game this week. It was not just any game - it was a derby match against Nantes, which Bordeaux managed to lose, by squandering away the lead.
Also, there is that incident from the locker room. The two players involved in it aren't that important but it's still a sign that something's not right on the team.
I think Guingamp will take advantage of visitors' problems and win today. But I'll go with the safer option, which is betting on the home team without a draw. Details

Describing Troy's performances as bad is an understatement. They sacked the coach and I really don't know how the inexperienced trio would lead them today. Also, what could have they done in just three days?
Troyes won a total of 11 points in 24 rounds. They have 5 points and 8 defeats from away games, which pretty much says it all. Bastia are no top level team but they are definitely one of the best hosts. They lost only to powerful Monaco in the last 5 home games, while winning the other 4 over Lyon, Montpellier, Reims and Bordeaux, all rather respectable teams.
The home team will have some players returning after suspensions (Cahuzac, Cioni, Ayite, and maybe Marange). History is well on Bastia's side, which is not necessarily relevant, but I believe they can get three points to take a step away from the danger zone. Details

I don't understand the logic behind Reims being such favorites. They are a team that won only once in 15 rounds, and this entire season, in 12 home games they won only three. Reims had a decent start of the season, but as time went they had more and more injured players, and then that impacted their results. They earned their three home wins in the first four home games, and since then they were unable to defeat anyone here, and they faced some weaker teams like Ajaccio, Toulouse or Troyes. True, in their last home game, Reims played a decent game against St. Etienne, but couldn't win even then. Angers have been a pleasant surprise of the season, but no one trusts them yet since they are new in the league. OK, two rounds ago PSG demolished them, but that is a whole other level of football. On the other hand, what Angers have displayed against Monaco was amazing. It is unlikely the away team will repeat such performance, but for at least a point at Reims, even less should suffice. Details

I think the bookmakers overestimated Athletic a bit. In normal circumstances I would even allow them to be minor favorites, but they surely aren't like this.
Let's start from the home team. First of all, I have to say that I admire Escribo very much for doing a phenomenal job with Elche and made a terrible team stay in the league (they were kicked out administratively). It took some time to settle down in Getafe, but before the last round, they were undefeated for six matches, which is a good sign. Furthermore, they are a typically home team who earned 21 out of the 26 points at home. This season only Barcelona and Granada in the first round won here, while Getafe achieved six wins and three draws. I will agree that Sarabi not playing is a handicap, but the team doesn't depend on him.
On the other hand, we have Athletic who are undoubtedly the better team on paper, but who have a couple of minuses for his away game. First and foremost is being spent after the match against Barca. On Wednesday they had a tough match, while Getafe were preparing the whole week only for this. Also, it's important to mention that Athletic are also first and foremost a home team. In eleven away matches this season, they were defeated six times, and only three times they won in away matches. If the hosts' problem is Sarabi's absence, then the away team's handicap is the absence of Raul Garcia, and probably Iker Muniain.
If you ask me, this should be a 50-50 match in circumstances like these, and not with odds of almost 3.50 for the hosts. We don't have reasons to risk it like that, so we will be pleased in Getafe remain undefeated at home. Details

The French league is not filled with bookings which is why the margins on the overall number of bookings are regularly lower than in Spain for example. That is why we have 4,5 bookings here which is, in my opinion, too low for this game. There is great rivalry between Lyon and Marseille. I expect today something similar to their first game this season, even more so because none of them are in a great position on the league table and the points are extremely important. I checked the stats of their last head-to-head games and it says: 5Y i 1R, 6Y and 1R, 4Y, 3Y, 8Y, 5Y, 2Y, 3Y and 1R, 8Y and 1C (overtime in the Cup), and 4Y.
I think the margin on the bookings is too low, but there is another bet we can place here. In their last 10 head-to-head games, we had 4 red cards, and the odds on red cards are around 4.00 today which means there's great value. The referee on the game is ref Gaultier who has shown that he easily gives bookings in the nine games this season, he showed red cards in six games which is a lot. Marseille are not one of the most disciplined teams in the league, but their players were sent off only 4 times this season, once against Layon. On the other side, Lyon's stats are not in our favor because their players were not sent off this season in the championship, only once in the Champions League. Despite this information, I believe that the odds on send offs have value and that they can be taken for a lower or medium stake. Details

Bastia and Montpellier have the same number of points but there are a few important differences regarding these two clubs. The visitors have had a rocky season since the start. Their coach is on back terms with club president who refuses to fire him because that would force him to pay the damages. Things started getting better late last year but just when Montpellier improved, the coach quit. They are not doing well with the new coach for now.
On the other hand, things are pretty much the same at Bastila. They didn't win a single away game this season and when complete, they are capable of beating anyone. They've been pretty much injury free lately and that immediately affected the results.
It seems like the bookies underestimated Bastila here. The visitors never won any of the h2h games over the past few seasons. Given the great odds, the best option is home team's win without a draw, because the bet will be void in case of a draw. Details

Many don't like betting on over in the French league, but there are exceptions, and that's what Nice and Montpellier are. Because of that notorious reputation, matches like these come with pretty good odds.
The home team went over 2.5 goals in 11 of 18 matches, and the guests 9-9. However, Montpellier had a really bad start of the season when they just couldn't score. In the first four rounds, they didn't score a single goal, and didn't go over in that period. In the following 14 rounds, they had 5-9 overs.
Nice, the second most efficient team of the league (following the untouchable PSG) with 31 goals, and Montpellier are the seventh (but, consider those first four rounds) with 22 goals scored.
On the other hand, their defenses aren't playing well. Nice conceded 23, and Montpellier 24 goals, the worse teams being only Lorient (an offensively-oriented team), Bordeaux and the last three teams of the league.
Nice's offense lead with Ben Arfa and Germain (seven goals each) guarantees that there will be goals scored, and the goal is tended by the young Hassen who is decent, but only got his chance because Pouplin got injured at the beginning of the season. The scorers are organized better in Montpellier, and only the young Ninga stands out with six goals, but there's danger from all sides because even the defenders scored five times this season. The defense are far from ideal, shutting off their net only three times this season (against the weak Troyes, Bastia and Bordeaux). Nice saved their net only against the barren Lille, and Lorient, which was a surprise, but the numerous absences both teams were dealing with in that match should be accounted for. Details

Whenever we have a game between two teams that are not in the top of the league table, the home team are automatically set as favorites. I can accept that sometimes, but not that Las Palmas are such favorites against Betis. This is a 50-50 game, in the worst case.
I expect the kind of game home team's coach predicted. Las Palmas will have possession, and Betis will threaten through counterattacks. That is what Betis' team likes, and it is not by accident that they are better in away games. They lost only one away game this season, at Real who are 'out of their league' after all. On the other hand, Las Palmas won only two home games and they are not really at the top of the league.
We could bet here on Betis' win without a draw, the odds on X2 have surprised me pleasantly so I will take them. I will bet on the Asian handicap because they always pay better. Details