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I will start off by mentioning the h2h record as I think it's important here. The Lithuanian stunned Ranoic in Moscow two seasons ago and has done well 5 years ago, also in these conditions. That is no wonder, knowing that return is one of his strong suits. That has often helped him in these conditions. Of course, there is also the fact he never fully lived up to his potential. But he mostly does well against better players. He lost to Thiem and Djokovic convincingly on outdoor hard courts but more importantly, he got a set against Roddick at one point when Roddick was a Top 10 player. The Canadian's form declined after Wimbledon. He had a few slips that can be compared to today's situation. Harrison (1,07) stunned him at US Open and he also lost to Youzhny in the only head-to-head match so far. He then returned to outdoor hard courts and struggled with an ankle injury. That clearly affected his last match in Shanghai. He managed to lose the match to Sock after the opening 6-0. All things considered, it's obvious that there is fatigue and lack of motivation. He now needs to adjust to these conditions. Berankis on the other hand is playing his 4th tournament in these conditions in the last month. He has done really well in qualifiers here. Granted, his opponents cannot be compared with Raonic but we will add that he is 2-1 against Anderson, 0-3 with Isner and he covered the margin lower handicap each time. I expect Berankis to put up a good fight. I would not be surprised if he gets a set here. The 19,5 game over is a good option as well but I'll go with the handicap which will either go or be void with a break in each set. Details

Albot's form has been great over the past few months on basically all surfaces. We will focus only on clay court and say that he first reached RG main draw and put up a good fight against Paire and then won a big challenger in Furthu without dropping a single set. He had a slip (Bublik) after that which can be attributed to fatigue. He then went on with great performances on other surfaces. After Wimbledon he was once again better than Elias who had more advantages when it comes to the surface itself (clay). But that didn't help him as he won 5 five games in total. That confirms great form for Albot, who can definitely get all the way to the top. He beat Montanes and Struff by 5 games recently, Kamke by 7, Clezar by 8. All of them are more dangerous than Stebe at the moment. Granted, the German used to be Top 100 and had potential but injuries have clearly affected him greatly. He recorded his third ch win against Bachinger and we should note that he had a lot of problems in qualifiers against Eremin as well. He does have three wins here but he didn't do great against players less dangerous than Radu. The Moldavian is approximately at Estrella's level but he still lost to Estrella by 6 games and also to Stepanek by 4. That is why I see this handicap as an option that cannot be missed out. Details

Mahut and Muller are specialized for the grass courts, and definitely deserved to play this final. Mahut showed how great he feels here, and despite a few weaker starts, he managed to get to the final here for the third time. He missed only two service games in four matches, and started two matches with a tie-break. So, the statistics don't really support that option here, but a deeper analysis is due. In 14 matches in the last two years here, he started with a tie-break four times, but there haven't really been good servers across the net. What's really relevant here, to me, is that he did it with Tomic and Querrey here, and that's what kind of a player he's going to face today. Muller lost only one service game in four matches here, and started with a tie-break twice, also against the strong servers (Karlović, Hasse). He's got 6-6 in favor of this option this year and last, and it's worth the mention that despite facing Mahut in what seems like ancient history, three of the last four duels also started this way. Details

This is a classic pick when it comes to Karlović, but these odds surprised me a bit. After the battle against Sijsling where there was only one break-point chance, the odds are identical against Mannarino who's played five first set tie-breaks in the last nine grass courts' duels. That statistic is already better than Sijsling's was, and what's coming next is a real treat. Ivo played 13 first set tie-breaks in his last 16 grass courts' duels. Also, in two out of four duels against Mannarino, there was a first set tie-break, both times in the fast Bogota, so that can definitely be compared to the grass courts. I'd be really surprised if there was a break in the first set here. Details

I will first mention that we have big support from the stats for this pic, and that is the basis of everything. Both players started their first match here with the tiebreak, and I will mention that Muller went over this margin five times in his last seven matches on grass-court, while Garcia went over in four of the last six matches. It is also worth mentioning that their every head-to-head match (5 of them) also started with a tiebreak and that has its weight. I will also add that in the first round here, Garcia won 87% points at the first serve, Muller won 82% with 24 aces. Details

I have to admit I was surprised by the odds on Montanes (1.33). The Spaniard might not play as well as he used to, but he recorded back-to-back wins at the ATP level in the past months, and he reached a challenger semi-final. He is in the Top 100 again, and this tournament provides him with a challenge in that aspect. He has to defend the final which definitely motivates him even more. With that, there is a obvious quality difference between him and Masur, since the young German still hasn't recorded a win over a Top 100 player. Yes, he is 21 years old and his time is coming, but right now we have no proof that he is able to compete against a player of Montanes' quality. He lost the last one to Viola by 8 games, and Viola is a weaker player than Montanes, who recently recorded easy wins in Heilbronn in similar situations. He defeated Laaksonen (1.49) by five games, Kicker (1.51) by eight games, and Reuter (1.18) by seven. I see a similar difference today, I think he will definitely win, but I decided for the stronger option. Details

Cervantes has been doing a good job. After a few successful challengers, he used a few chances at ATP level but mostly against players outside of Top 50. He didn't do great against players of better quality (expect for Kyrgios in Estoril in what was Kyrgios' first clay court match). We need to note that Kohlschreiber beat him by 6 games, Carreno by 6, 10 and 4 and Vesely by 8. All of those happened on his favorite surface (clay court). When it comes to the wins, only the one over Delbonis from Sao Paolo stands out. Thiem is better than all of them and what he did last week suggests we can expect some great things of him. Grantd, he played the final on Saturday and apparently had some shoulder problems but he said that he would be fully fit for RG. I expect him to start fierce and try and save some energy. He beat Almagro in Australia by 11 games and has wins over Mannarino (by 8 games), Seppi (by 6) and Sousa (by 7). All of them are better than Cervantes, who is now playing only his second Grand Slam ever. I expect Thiem to win two sets by double breaks and that is why this handicap seems like an option we shouldn't miss out on. Details

Zeballos did win their first duel, but things turned around completely in the following three. Goffin won seven sets total up by 29 points, so over four points per set on average. Even though the Argentinian showed he's still got some moves here, Goffin's form is working for him, and anything but his win would be a big surprise for me. Indian Wells' semis boosted his confidence even more, and he left Troicki with two games here after beating Granollers. Zeballos' wins against Delpotro and Verdasco are valuable, but let's not forget how spent he got getting them, and I think he was even dealing with cramps by the end of the duel against the Spaniard. I think Goffin will be just too big of a bite for Zeballos right now, and that he'll win at least one set with a double break advantage. Details

Herbert recorded 5 defeats this season, none of which by a margin greater than the one set here. Granted, this match can be compared only with his meeting with Tsonga at AO when he covered this handicap even in the best-of-three sets match. The Frenchman has a title from IW doubles tournament, which has boosted his confidence. He already recorded 3 new singles wins. Following the convincing performances in qualifiers, he outplayed Rosol in the first round. He played an aggressive game and hit 76% of first serve points with 14 aces. Those numbers suggests his serving is good and that can make him a tough opponent for anyone in these conditions. Nishikori is of course, expected to be more dangerous but we have to look back at some of his matches with great servers this season. He beat Querrey narrowly once and lost once. He beat Johnson after two tie-breaks, somehow beat Isner even though he won three games less. Even the young Fritz covered this handicap against Nishikori in his first ATP final. That simply forced me into going with this seemingly low margin, especially since Herbert played three good matches here. Details

Isner played Groth two days ago and I'll just repeat what I said back then. The Australian was, interestingly, a more dangerous opponent in the first set but there were no tiebreaks. He is now to face a more dangerous opponent who has a better game-plane than Groth, who turned out to be completely lost. Tomic proved to be in fine form against Sock, with a lot of confidence that he will definitely need today. The pressure is on him again and I think both will have their priorities straight at the start. Let's just add that this is played on grass court, which adds an extra dimension to Sock. He started 5 out of 9 matches this season with a tiebreak, while Tomic is 7-12. It needs to be noted that Tomic didn't play any of the top 4 servers, though (Karlović, Isner, Raonic, Anderson). They both started their first matches here with a tiebreak and that only seems like a pore probably outcome today. Details

This is a default bet when it comes to Isner, especially when it comes to Groth. The Australian's serve is still the fastest measured, and Isner, everyone knows about his serve. True, he is the favorite today, but with him, it's always the same old story. He rarely loses his serve, but he also rarely gets a break, even against servers far more harmless than the Australian. He started his last two clay duels against Pella and Lajovic with a tie-break, and later had one more against each. Now he'll face a player who hits over 220km/h regularly, and this is gras. Let's mention that Groth started half his matches this year with a tie-break (4/8), and he didn't really face great servers. I expect a real war when it comes to the serves today, and I'll gladly take this bet. Details

I've watched Wawrinka in most matches on this tournament, and I have to say I wasn't impressed. Actually, he had a bad start and got better a bit, but this is definitely not hi best. He had a favorable draw, truth be told, and Kyrgios, his first opponent, wasn't ready. On the other hand, Baghdatis shines here, and definitely playing his best tennis in the last few yeaers. He only lost one set against Troicki, Pospisil, Bautista and Lopez (who are definitely more dangerous), even though he constantly had problems with his first serve. But, even low numbers there got him worthy wins and he earned the final. His past against Wawrinka isn't good, 0-5, but those were rarely one-way street matches. The Cypriot retired from the last one, and the other four times, he took a set three times (two at the GS tournaments). So, the h2h numbers aren't exactly against us, while Baghdatis definitely left a better impression at this tournament. The 1.25 for Wawrinka really surprised me. The Cypriot had a fantastic week where his confidence was boosted, and knowing him to be a great fighter, there's no reason that with the support from the audience he wouldn't play in a way that would cover this handicap. Details

I had several options on my mind here, and then I took a detailed look into Zverev's numbers in this last, the most successful, period of his career. The young German is, without a doubt, playing his best tennis and recording great results. In those three weeks, he played 8 matches (six wins), and he started every match with a first set tiebreak. That is the proof of his improving serve which has, as many point out, is much better than last season. Last season he played a match against Berdych, and he didn't embarrass himself, and the Czech remembered that match, pointing out that Zverev has improved significantly since then. I seem him as an even more dangerous opponent now, and I have arguments for that. With indisputable progress, we should also mention that Zverev is in a much better rhythm since this will be his ninth indoor match, and only first for Berdych. He took a break after Australia and it would be surprising if he would start the match with great rhythm. I would be surprised even if he lost the first set, but I primarily see it as tough and even. I respect the Czech's serve, and the numbers Zverev recorded indoor so far suggest that this could go into tiebreak, so I am wholeheartedly taking these 9,5. Details

There are several key things that suggest to me that the Swiss will not have an easy task today. Stakhovsky has proved that he can and knows how to play against him, and we should mention that he defeated him on two out of three occasions. Last time with a great performance here last year in the quarter-final. True, he started this season badly, with five defeats, but he defeated dangerous Lopez here which definitely improved his confidence. Now he can play against Wawrinka without the pressure of winning, and he has some advantages in the aspect of adaptation. This is his third straight week indoor, while this is Wawrinka's first indoor match this year. We should also keep in mind that he took a break after Melbourne so I believe he won't be maximally prepared and adapted here. Details

I saw quite a few matches in Marseilles yesterday and I have to admit the conditions are pretty fast. We saw a lot of tie-breaks even in qualifiers. I expect a lot more of that in the main draw. This I believe is a perfect chance for such a start into the match. Both of these players are great servers but there are also a few other reasons. Both need to win this after less-than-great start to the season. Pospisil recorded only one win so far but he's got the double title from Rotterdam here, which could give him extra confidence. He opened 4 out of 5 previous matches of this season with prolonged first sets and that makes him a great choice here. Kyrgios has no such stats but he mostly played different kind of opponents and in different conditions. Both are expected to rely on their great serve and that makes the odds for a tie break very valuable. Details

Even though both of these players lost the first round matches in Rotterdam last week, each left a different impression. Sousa was the superior player in the Bautista match and it wouldn't be undeserved if he had won it. He expressed his disappointment after the mach, but also said that he is happy with the level his game. Haase said that he feels a bit frustrated after the defeat to Simon and he is definitely not feeling too confident now. Confidence is often a problem for him since he's not the most stable player. Four straight defeats seem to be pushing him into another long losing run. I think he's in for defeat No. 5. First of all, Sousa is much more reliable and has better results in these conditions. He had a title and a final last season, while Haase has only two such wins at 5 ATP tournaments in those conditions. Sousa was happy with his game in spite of the defeat and I'm sure he will try hard to improve his indoor record. Details

These Frenchmen played three head-to-head matches and Chardy won each of them, but it was never an easy win. In their seven head-to-head sets, five went into tiebreak and that says enough about how even they are. They, I have to admit, are not surprised since it was mostly played on hard court and they both have great serves and play aggressive tennis. We had a chance to see that in the first round here. They both lost their serve only once, and this bet passed with both of them. Chardy played two tiebreaks against Donskoy, and it seems that today he is facing an even tougher opponent. In my opinion, at least one tiebreak is a reality here and my final choice since the overall margin is set too high. Details