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It is enough to remember the games from last season's play-offs to know what kind of game we are faced with. These games ended way under 50 points and the one that went into over-time ended in 49. What has changed since? The home coach Franzen admits that IFK have additionally improved their defense while Alingsas are running around the court even less and are more focused on the defense. In addition, the home team might not have their first-choice play-maker Gudmundsson without whom their attack is much slower. On the other hand,, first-team right-back Fagerlund and right wing Enstrom are in question for the way team and this furthers the possibilities of an under along with the importance of this game. This is a game for the first spot and we can expect a merciless game as we saw in previous games. Details

Moslavina have lost all five of their away games, and the only game in which the managed to cover this spread was against Spačva. They did it in a duel in which the keepers did an excellent job and in which Podvalej played the game of his season, while their left wing Lukes lead their attack with nine goals. Today, Lukes will be certainly out due to knee injury. Podvalej is in doubt due to business obligations so even if he starts I don't think he will be brilliant. But that's just some of the problems for the team from Kutina. An even bigger problem lies in the fact that Đakovo play a 6-0 defense and the away team are coming without their first and virtually only good shooter Masnec. Without him, they lost their last game in Đakovo by 30-22 and they had Šušnja, Kačmarčik, Vučelić in the squad then. They are also not available today. Šušnja transferred to CO Zagreb during the summer while the remaining 2 are injured. Their middle/left back Pleše is also injured, and so is their pivot Sruk and second keeper Crnojević. This brings the whole team down to 13 players for today, 7 of whom were born in 1996 and 4 born in '94. The only two senior players are Podvalej and keeper Kristić who is the only thing that can save them from a heavy defeat. To sum things up, the away team are bringing their cadet team to face the opponent that use the defense that they like the least (6-0) and are always motivated against Moslavina. Their duels are always intensive, and the fact is that Đakovo have the edge today because of much stronger defense that can be used to outplay their opponents. Some of Moslavina's players proved to be nervous and afraid in the last round against the tougher challenges and rough players from Požega, and now they can expect even a harder game and the contrast in physique should be even more emphasized here. Details

Benfica already lost to Porto at home by exactly 3 goals, and to Sporting in a city derby by one. Although Porto are running in the Champions league, I do not consider neither them, nor Sporting, to be better than Szeged. The Hungarian team simply came across a better team in the qualifiers (Metalurg), and had to settle for the EHF Cup.
Since they dropped out of the CL qualifiers, Szeged are on a 14 game long undefeated streak, including a 23-22 home victory over Veszprem, and their right back Balogh clearly stated they are coming back home from Lisbon with a win. The difference in quality should be clear, starting from the goalkeeper position with Mikler, over wings with the world class Parrondo, down to the pivot where they have Zubai. There is no point in wasting time talking about the outer line - the away team clearly have the advantage there(Larholm, Ilyes, Sulc, Ancsin...), and it would be really surprising if the Portuguese could manage to play a tied game for 60 minutes vs the charging Hungarians. Details

This is the default bet when Lugi and Kristianstad are meeting. They have not gone through the 50 goal margin in the last two seasons, and both teams clearly stated they will focus even more on their defense prior to this season. Their first duel ended with only 23-20 for Kristianstad, and I expect nothing different today. Even more so, as Lugi have managed to fit Jernemyr even better into their system than in the first match they played. IN accordance with that, a 50 point margin seems very high today as well. Details

Lugi have been struggling to score for a while now due to their primary middle back missing, and today another two right wingers and their primary pivot player are in question as well. All three were good scorers so far this season, which could mean that the home team's offense might suffer even more than usual today. One more reason to expect less goals is that Lugi are a far more defensively oriented team, with Brljevic often stating that his first goal is to limit the opponent to 20 goals, believing that his team will score at least 21. That many goals is way below today's margin, and one should also keep in mind that the home team have played a tough duel vs Buxtehuder three days ago, and are in no mood to play a fast paced game. Sparvagens stayed at about this margin even with teams who play at a far faster pace (conceded 30 vs Karra, 28 vs Skaanela) and I find it hard to expect Lugi to go over 25-26 today. Details

Krim scored 27 goals away in Leipzig, that is, only 3 below the margin for today, but the situation is much different now. Since then, the German have lost several crucial players, the most important of which is right back S. Muller, who is very important at both ends of the pitch. It is hard to see who might shoot over Krim's 6-0 now that she's missing, and this should open up some additional options for quick counters. But even if Leipzig score, it's not a problem since Tišelj clearly announced a fast pace for the entire 60 minutes, which should imply going for fast middle and the reason is quite clear - the away team are coming with only 10 players while Krim have many options in their rotations and this would allow them to make use of the situation the best way possible. Coupled with the fact that the visitors are saying they are coming to have training session ahead of Koblenz, an over seems even more probable. It is evident that the Germans have already given up before this game, they are just coming to Ljubljana to relax for the next duel and celebrate the birthday of their left wing Augsburg, and this will all be reflected on the scoreline. Leipzig have had a "relaxation match" against Savehof and conceded 30 points, despite the disastrous play from the Swedes in the last 15 minutes. The away team are now in an even tougher situation and it would be a complete surprise if Krim don't score 30 here. Details

Redbergslids have scored 22 against Guif in the first round and this is probably the reason why this margin is so low. However, ahead of this game RIK were notified that their first-team player Stojčevski cannot play due to administrative issues - he later turned out to be one of their crucial attacking options this season. With him in game, Redbergslids are a completely different team as this player can both shoot and assist and this should give the guests more choice in the attack. In addition, the home team are without their first-choice keeper Edvardsson and this should make their situations somewhat easier. After all, it is hard to expect RIK to have only 31 shots in in 60 minutes once again.
The visitors have gone under this margin at the start of the season against Guif and Hammarby and got 26 points against Alinass and Lugi (teams with deftter defense than Guif), they scored 35 against Rimbo and 27-28 is more realistic for them today than 20. Details

In Kvalserien last season, these two teams showed very clearly just how strong tempo they can have. It is actually well-known for Rimbo and Malmo often accept their tempo. The guests have shown that they do not have too many problems against Rimbo's "wild" defense, and Rimbo also do well against Malmo's somewhat more aggressive defense. Consequently, their games ended at 70 and 74 points, which is well above this margin. Rimbo have been conceding +35 points for several rounds now and the situation could be the same today. The away pivot Pecikoza should probably be the key may considering he should have lots of space against the opposing 3-3 defense and he's been using it very well this season. Since I expect Rimbo to get some goals, I'll take the overall over as I expect this game to be at about 65 goals. Details

Savehof's center back Schedvert said ahead of the last game that his team won't concede over 25 goals on many more occasions. With this statement, he made clear that they will give their defense lots of attention, particularly more than in previous season. Onnereds pays even more attention to the defense. They will try to get their first win of the season in front of the packed Scandinavium Arena, but it is well-known they perform great in front of a huge crowd. On the other hand, Savehof have not been very efficient in away games. They scored 38 goals against the super-fast Rimbo, but mostly because the opponents fell apart while they scored 25 against Skovde, 23 against RIK, and 20 against Malmo (who also like faster games).
Truth be told, Onnereds conceded +30 goals per game at the start of the season, but now they've managed to stabilized their game. No one has gone over this margin against them in the last four rounds, and the very fast Drott came the closest as they scored exactly 30. However, this very Drott scored 27 against Flensburg, 30 against Hamburg, 35 against La Rioja and one can see that they are a very potent team. The guests announced they will focus on defense and I don't think one can expect them to get over 30 goals, especially in today's slightly different atmosphere. And if they don't score over 30 they won't by over 5 goals as well... Details

I must admit I am a bit surprised by the odds on Savehof, who will try to take a big step towards passing to the next stage in front of a sold-out arena. The arriving team are Leipzig, whom they already triumphed over decisively some two weeks ago (28-34), and judging from what we've seen, the spread might have been double that if the referees hadn't held Leipzig in the game as long as they could. The German team has a clear problem: they can withstand 40-45 minutes of a high tempo game, but then the lacking rotation kicks in, a problem they have due to several long term player injuries. Savehof are perhaps the fastest team in their group, and have already demonstrated that they can demolish Leipzig, and I believe they may have an even easier job today. The key players of the German team (Kudlacz, S. Muller) played qualifier duels with their national teams, and then came the league derby vs Thuringer at home, where they also lost. Due to the increased stress, Leipzig did not have active practice since that duel at all, they only rested and did video analyses. On the other hand, Savehof could completely focus on this duel, and they should be able to take advantage of that. Their only worry is the possibility of a very aggressive 5-1 (or even 4-2) defense by the away team. However, the problem is that using such a defense might be disastrous for the German team as well. It is very hard indeed to hold up such a defense for 60 minutes with a limited rotation of players like the one they have, and it seems that Leipzig are in a double bind. Overall, the Swedes have already demonstrated they know how to play vs an opponent like this one, and we should not doubt them. Details

This is a direct duel for getting to spend the spring in Europe, the only question is whether it will be in LP or CWC. Baia Mare celebrated on their own court 24-23 in the last round, and coach Buceschi and the player Szucs called for an even better defense. When a team that concedes 23 goals in a duel says that, it's hard to expect a handball "beauty" today. Hypo, definitely eager for a rematch, will be on the other side, and the rematch can happen only with a very tough defense, because they simply don't have the offense potential for this level of the competition. We have amazing goalies on both sides, and that should only be a plus for the very defensive teams playing today. So, to expect five goals more than in the first duel is really hard. The more realistic option seems to be that the number of goals will stay on the same level. Details

When they were much stronger and had a much more experienced team, Italy suffered heavier defeats than the one expected by the bookmakers today. They lost by 13 and 14 goals against a mediocre Belarus, by 21 and 27 goals against Poland, by 17 against Denmark, and by 25 points against Croatia (without Penezic), and it is worth noting that all these team rotated their players and went over this margin without any problem, except for Denmark who used their B squad for more than 45 minutes. This Italy is playing with a much younger and inexperienced squad against the Olympic bronze-medal winners Spain and their coach Hammer said that his players are honored to play against such an opponent. That being said, they respect their visitors, and this usually ends pretty bad especially when the opponents play a tough 6-0. Inferior team usually don't have an answer for that, technical errors pile up and the Spaniards should take advantage of that. In addition, the fact that Navarro had 64 % saves against Turkey is really frightening, while her sub had 50 % - these are really fantastic figures. The Spaniards have gone over this margin against Turkey, and the Turks are stronger than Italy by at least some 20-30 %. Turkey and Italy played in Mersin at the Mediterranean games a few months ago. Italy had full squad at their disposal and Turkey was without Ozel, as was the case against Spain two days ago. Despite that, Turkey won by 28-26. The Italians are missing four crucial players and Italy's defeat by some 20+ points seems more realistic than by 15 points, even of Spain play with B squad for 45 minuts (like Denmark). Details

It is hard to understand 48.5 goal margin against the team led by Marta Born. Slovenian national team coach is famous for preferring fast handball, fast center (especially if opponents line player scores) and she has great shooter Lazovic-Varglec on her team. When we have such a low margin, we have to look at who is shooting 7 meter throws - for Slovenians that is Tamara Mavsar, one of the best players in that segment in the Champions League so far. She missed only one in Metz last weekend. Goalie Sergeja Stefanisin had a great game in Metz, but she is not on the roster for this game, and that is another plus for this bet.
On the other side, Sweden have six Savehof players and anyone who watched their games in Champions League this season knows how they play - very fast, fast center and counterattacks. I do not expect Klingvall to allow such run and gun as Signell does in Savehof, but Sweden are stronger today for their shooter Torstensson, they also have Alm at center back position who is in great shooting form and experienced Oden who is known for her fantastic cooperation with players on the line. Swedish wings are also from Savehof (Sand and Fogelstrom) and they showed a lot against Leipzig and they could contribute significantly to this bet since they have great feel for counterattacks and a wide selection of shots from the wing.
I believe this margin was calculated on the basis of results from two years ago and last year, but Slovenians are much different team now. Then they played without almost half of their team and even then they had a game just over this margin. It is evident the visiting team have improved offensively since then and they developed several new players (Lazovic-Varglec, Mavsar) and today I expect we will see a game with at least 50 goals. Details

Lund can go over this margin only if Onnereds' defense falls apart. The home team are well known for their good defense game, especially home where their fans create huge pressure for the opposite team's players, and for the referees as well. This game can decide who will end up at the bottom of Eliserin and get directly relegated, even though the season has not advanced that far yet. That is why we expect a lot of tension in the game, and those kind of games usually end with under 60 goals scored. Last game they played here in Allsvenkan was a 24-24 draw, and I fail to see why should this game be any more efficient. True, Onnereds conceded more goals than this margin three times this year, but against Lugi, Kristianstad, and YIF, all of whom are much better teams than Lund. The visiting team scored 34 goals against Drotto, 31 against YIF, which is probably why the margin is set that high. But, Drotto and YIF and much more oriented on running, while Onnnreds play calmly with a much bigger focus on defense. Details

Savehof scored more than 28 points in all matches this season; the only match where they scored less than 30 points was the one where they scored 28 and their opponent was Krim. If they had not made 5-6 technical fouls in this match they would have passed the margin of 30 points. So there should be no problems in surpassing this margin. Let's get back to Leipzig's defense. The hosts will be playing without two pivots (Muller, Schulze), the right back Hubinger and the veteran and captain of the team Schulke. It's hard to say which one is more important for the defense of the German team and another problem is that Leipzig have slim rotation options without them. It's clear it all depends on Kudlacz and S. Muller, which the guests might take advantage of to score easily. A solid alternative is Savehof over 25,5 in Marathon. Details

If someone created problems for RIK last season (as far a Savehof goes), it was right back Tonnesen with a total of 17 goals in two matches. In addition to his goals, Bliznac scored 8 in the first match (when IKS scored 31) but didn't play the second. Both players left for Wetzlar this summer and Savehof now have to depend on Thynell on the outside, and he'll also have to keep creating counter-attacks. They also lost their powerful pivot Nielsen and signed the solid Ysander from RIK, but rumour has it he's doubtful for today due to a cold. The guests' first pivot for today should be the young national team player Rhodin who is (with all due respect) very ungainly and can't be trusted with threatening the home side who have had a solid defence this season. The exception was their first duel against Guif, when they were disheartened by the news of Stojcevski's no show, but everything's in its right place now. In addition to all this, the home side are especially motivated after their disappointing defeat against AHK and will try their darnedest not to let their opponents anywhere near 30 goals today. It is also important to note that the away side played Guif only two days ago and RIK got an extra day's worth of rest, which can mean quite a lot in such a short interval for the upcoming duel. Details

Moslavina are coming to Varazdin without half of their team. Their only true shooter, right back Masnec, will not play, nor will Podvalej who is the other shooting solution. In addition to these two, Klasnja is missing, as one of the crucial defenders for the away team, and so are the first-team wingers Vucelic and Oric. It is important to note that Vucelic and Masnec have had the biggest responsibilities in Moslavina's team and playing without them will be really hard. As much as 50 % of this team will be made up of cadets born in 1996 and later, and these boys have had a tough game three days ago, one could even say a sports combat against Petrinja, and some of them are still carrying some minor injuries from this duel. Five of the remaining seven players were born in '94 and the most experienced players are Kristic and Lukes, born in 1990. Such a young team can barely do anything against the mighty Varazdin who are extremely motivated ahead of this game, because a win today would stabilize their first place in the league. Truth be told, I would not be surprised if the goal difference is over 10 by half time. Varazdin play a firm 6-0, they have a far wider bench and should control this game from the beginning to the end. Details

I can't let go the impression that Leipzig reached the victory in Metz more because of the disastrous game by their opponent than their own great performance. Metz had a series of technical mistakes, and this way it opened the path to the victory for Leipzig. It is true, Krim complained about problems in the defense, but the fact is that the Slovenians didn't shoot through the middle of the defense, but they left a somewhat more space at the wings. Savehof has vey good wings and they knew how to use them, but the fact is that Leipzig depends more on the outside shooters Kudlacz and Muller. Against the high 6-0, Krim may have a significant problem, and in addition to that, the Germans don't have the potential for rotation as guests. Krim has in the last 15 minutes of the game against Savehof showed how powerful they are (they reached +8 from -1) when they start playing, and I believe that today they can repeat such a period and reach new points. Details

Nothing indicates that we might be in for a beautiful handball match today. This is a clash between two main candidates for the championship who base their success on tough and strong defense. 49, 42, and 48 goals were scored in their head to head matches last year, but their defenses are every stronger this year. Defense specialist Jernemyr joined Lugi from Barcelona, and goalkeeper Beutler joined Kristianstad's team, even though they already have the best goalkeeper in the league - Lucau. Norwegian international Christensen is Lugi's goalkeeper. He's playing brilliantly as well, so it's not that surprising that both teams don't concede a lot of goals.
Kristianstad allowed Drotto only 24 goals, Onnereds and Lund 23. On the other hand, Lugi conceded 22 against Drotto and only 24 against Malmo. True, they conceded 25 and 26 to Lund and Onnereds respectively, but those matches were decided early which allowed them to relax a bit towards the end. It's hard to expect today's winner will be decided before the very end and the total of scored goals most likely won't even go over 50, let alone 53 goals. Furthermore, Ernstsson, who is, next to Tingsvall, Lugi's most important scorer might not play, which only improves the chance for less scored goals. Details

Considering their high tempo, Rimbo are a special story in this season's Elitserien. This is a young team that compensates the lack of physical strength with speed. They have announced they will try to outrun their opponents in today's match. Two teams that are second to them when it comes to game tempo are Drott and Rimbo's today's opponents Skovde. Keeping in mind that the home team went on to play a 59-goal-match with Hammarby, who like to play in a somewhat slower tempo, then over 60 goals are expected in today's match. In the case of the home team, their tempo enables them to score so many goals, while the prevailing factor in the visiting team is pivot Arrhenius, a player that can create a lot of problems in Rimbo defence using his strength. However, it is clear that Skovde also have excellent players in counterattack, who are able to seize the opponents' mistakes caused by fast game, which only adds to the possibility of having many goals in the match. Expecting 62-63 goals, if not more, is being realistic. This spring, the matches in Kvalserien with Malmo ended with 70 and 74 goals, while the one with the more defence-oriented Vasteras ended on 63 goals, so there is no reason not to think that they will repeat the same feat today against a more offensive-oriented Skovde team. Details