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Everything is clear. Drott have been knocked out of the league, and today they're saying goodbye to the first league in front of their fans. For Lugi this match means nothing. The visiting coach Axner said that he would be playing with younger players, and that's key for this bet. Without the experienced Modigh and Andersson in the middle of the defense, Lugi are quite weaker in that department. The younger players can't be on that level. This is an ideal chance for Drott to say goodbye to the first league with dignity. Still, they should have more motive today than in the previous three rounds, when they already knew their fate. And at the time they even went over this margin. They recorded 25 against Skovde, 28 against Ystads and 24 against Ricoh - none of those teams are weak in the defense. So it seems realistic to me for Drott to make use of the chance today and record their 25+ goals. Details

Normally, an under at this margin is the thing to go with when it comes to either Balaton or Veszprem. But, when the two of them meet, the games don't turn out to be very competitive. These clubs have a very good rapport and the winner is known even before the start, they focus on the game being attractive more. They played under this margin only once in the last 5 years (55 goals exactly). The other ten games went to over 57. I think the tradition will continue today. This is a great chance for Veszprem's coach to use all of his players, only two days after the CL game. They will probably not try too hard in defense. Balaton won't for sure because they don't want any injuries. Interestingly, they basically asked Veszprem not do play rough either. Balaton always leaves goalkeeper Fazekas on the bench in games like these and goes with the young Roszaboly. Of course, he is much worse, which is great for this over. Also, Balaton go with a faster pace in games like these. They cannot stop Veszprem offense, especially without Fazekas on the goal. Another game at over 60 goals seems realistic. Details

Ukraine showed dominance in the first leg over Italy. They won with +18, and in the first 15 minutes they had two bad periods. In both times they returned from Italy's +3 to a draw, and then managed to cover today's margin by the end.
Prior to the second leg, Ukraine are announcing a serious approach, making the goal difference big. They want to be the best in their group, and they're currently 22 goals behind Serbia. Still, the goal-difference is more important in the fight for the third-placed of this qualification cycle.
Seriousness is everything Ukraine need to crush Italy. The aggressive defense doesn't suit Italy, everything comes down to left back Niederwieser. She was brilliant in the first match, she scored 10 goals. She couldn't do better than that, and that didn't cover the handicap. Today she can only play worse than in Follonica. Ukraine have room to progress so I don't believe that today they will win with a smaller goal-difference than they did in Italy a couple of days ago. Details

This is a statistically good margin. Vaslui are at 57.7 goals on average, Ploiesti at 56.5. But two important elements weren't taken into account when this margin was created. The first is synergy - both teams play at a high pace, they have quality transition and they do not really care about defense. The second detail is the fact that Ploiesti often play weaker defense in away games and it hard to expect that Vaslui will stay at only 26 goals again. Even with their weaker offensive performance, the first duel went up to 59 goals. I expect a game at around 60 goals today as well, regardless of the fact that this is an important game points-wise. So was the first one, Ploiesti announced that they would play more carefully and it still went into over. Details

Resita are a team known for complete focus on defense and lower pace. As soon as they face anyone also oriented on defense, their games finish at around 50 goals. They finished the first game against Targu at 43, and after that the opponents were taken over by Rudic, who is even more oriented on defense. They stopped at 42 against Odorhei, 47 against Turda, 39 Timisoara, 50 CSM and 49 with Steaua who play at a high pace... Even against fast Vaslui they played at 54 at the start of the season, and later at 51. In the Cup last month they played at 48 against CSM. They went over only against weak Focsani and Galati, and fast Dinamo and Pioesti. Targu managed to limit Pioesti to 49 goals, and Vaslui at 44. That says enough about how dedicated to defense Rudic really is. And we should expect full application of his tactics now because he had enough time over the Winter to adapt the team to his playing style. Another thing in favor of the under today is the fact that this is an important game points-wise so we should expect a lot of fierce contact just like in their first head-to-head game. The margin of 50 goals seems like the most for these two defense oriented teams in accordance with the circumstances in which the game is being played. Details

We seem to have perfect situation for an over. The Austrians say they won't be motivated to trash the opponents, which normally means problems, especially in defense. They are not brillaint in that segment and they will be without top goal keeper Marinovic today, which is only one more argument for over. Bauer and Pilipovic didn't do great in Trieste or during the preparation period. Austria will have it tough today since they talk about the lack of motivation openly. Italians have already accepted that they'll lose, which is why the coach decided to play an attractive game for the fans. They played such a match three days ago in Trieste (67 goals). I son't see a reason for the fans to see 10 goals less today. Especially since Austrians always look to play more attractive matches home. Since they're not really interested in winning here, it's very realistic that we'll see more than 60 goals again. Details

Skovde and Ricoh are furiously battling to avoid the additional matches to avoid the danger zone. Ricoh are the first above that zone, Skovde are in the middle of the danger zone. That's why the points in today's match are worth double for both teams.
Because of that detail we can already expect a furious battle, and it's practically guaranteed by the fact that both teams are completely defense-oriented. On average, Skovde score 21.8 goals, Ricoh 22.9. On a 48.5 margin both teams have remained in an under eight times. They went the same number of times in an over, but against a lot stronger teams.
When it was 'tight', they played on small numbers. The first head-to-head of this season remained at only 39 goals. With all the other teams fighting to stay, Ricoh played at or under the margin. Against Drott who like to outrun they went to 51, against strong-paced Aranas it was 45, and against Karlskron 43 goals. In the blowout, Skovde played against Karlskron at 53, against the stronger Drott and Aranas they stopped at 57 and 56 goals. Ricoh are their complete opposite, a team who aren't even thingking of outrunning. Just like Skovde. That's why in this very important match it's unrealistic to expect it to lean towards 50 goals. A more realistic scenario is around 45 goals. Details

Basically everything has already been said about France and their game. They focus on the tough 6-0 zone defense, which is clear from their results. The first half against Germany fell apart so the game finished at 23 goals (167). France then played Korea at 22 and Argentina at 19. They then played at 24 against Congo after conceding 10 in the first half but that game cannot be significant to this one today. The most significant game is the last group stage match against Brazil. The first half finished at 19 goals after the defense was in the focus and this game won't be any different, judging by what the french have been saying ahead of this match. France focus on defense totally as well, which means the results are increasingly more important for them. They stayed at 21 against Kazakhstan and finished at 30 in the fast-paced game against Russia. They then got limited to 25 against Romania, the team with better offense quality than France. Spain finished the first half against Puerto Rico at 25 since the opponents played fast pace and no defense. Spain played Norway in the final group match to finish at 30 goals, thanks to the Norwegian pace. Spain are now to face a completely different team. France do not attempt to outrun the opponents in games as important as this one. They will try with counter attacks but those should be scarce, which means France will slow the pace down and play attacks of at least 45 seconds. Spain are no different when it comes to pace and it's realistic for us to see another battle. Especially since keeping the hope of reaching Rio is at stake here. Details

By the average of goals, this is a fully hit margin, but the average is deceitful. Especially with Eger who didn't manage to stand up with their defense against stronger Hungarian teams (Balaton, Batabanya, Szeged), so they always conceded over 30 goals, thus reising their average. They played those duels mostly around 55 goals. Today's match will be quite even, and when it came to matches like those, they played at less goals. With Csurga they stopped at 46, Gyongyosi at 45, PLER at 43, Mezokovesdi at 48, Komoli at 50, Balmaz at 43, the fast-payed Cegledi at 49, and against Csurga two rounds ago they were again at 46. From their side, today's duel would be closer to 45 goals than 50. On Gyogyosi's side the situation is also better for an over. In even matches they played with PLER at 43, Mezokovesedi at 42, Eger at 45, Kolomi at 44, Balmaz at 40, cegledi at 61, Oroshaz at 45 and again with Mezokovesidi in the last round at only 39. The point is that the away team have lost a lot offensively after numerous injuries, and they still didn't fix that. But their defense is great and it's clear that's what they will point out, just like Eger. So it's again very realistic to aim for a match with very low numbers. What benefits that is the fact that this is a big local derby in which points are very important for the relegation battle. Details

Galati are definitely the worst team of the Romanian league. Their defense is awful, they concede a bit over 30 per game. They'll host Dinamo today, the best offense of the league. The Bucharest team scored 40 in the first game already, and they are now even stronger, better at creating chances and are dangerous from any position. Considering what they've shown so far, it seems almost impossible that Galati's defense would be able to stop them. They couldn't when Dinamo weren't as great as today. The only thing working for them, and for over, is that the guests are pretty relaxed after they've secured the win. They turn every match to a friendly one after that. The last three rounds are a perfect example - they ended at 75 against Focsani, 63 against Baia Mare, and 75 against Vaslui. Considering that the home team are defensively weak, this match will probably look more like a revue match than a competitive one. That makes a match under 60 very unlikely. Galati already went over this margin against faster opponents. The first match against Dinamo at 64, 67 against Steau and 60 against Poiesti. They only stayed at 52 against Vaslui. The guests have even more overs on this margin. Focsani, who are the most similar to Galati, showed their power twice already, and ended the game against Galati at 75 and 72 earlier in the season. Having similar total numbers today would be no surprise. Details

These two teams already played a head-to-head game at 59 goals before Linz's coach Adzamija decided to change the tactics and play at a much faster pace. It was also a very important clash pints-wise. Ahead of today's game, the away team has pretty much surrendered before it even started. And the home team announce that their only goal is to play a good game. Winning is all that matters, the goal difference doesn't concern them. That already took last round's game at 62 goals against defensively oriented Barnbach, round before that they went up to 63 against also offensively fierce Bruck. Linz have, since they started running, also played at very high 70 goals against Bruck and 63 against Barnbach. In the last round they stopped at 57 against WW who play at a slow pace under Jonsson, which is also a lot for them. Today they have a game against a different team. The Fivers are a team that plays at a strongest pace in the Austrian league. Their offense is amazing, they score almost 35 goals on average. Linz have also been very efficient since they changed their tactics. In the last 10 games, they have been at an average of 30 goals scored. I don't expect either team at lower numbers today since they are announcing more of an exhibition match, rather than a competitive one. A game at 65+ goal seems realistic in this situation. Details

Argentina didn't put up convincing performances so far. France didn't play as they normally do against the South Americans but still had a 7-goal lead at half time, while Brazil had a 3-goal lead. Argentina had only a one goal lead against Congo at half time. Germany was the only team that did its best against Argentina. Vestgaard's team had a 9 points lead by half time. Korea will try their best today as well since this is a direct clash for Round of 16. The Asina are much better individually and their game style will be a problem for Argentina as well. Korea are very aggressive, fast and I don't Argentina can stay close in such a match for longer than 20 minutes. I think Korea will settle the game by half time. They had a 2-goal lead against Brazil at half time, a tie against France, +8 against Congo and +1 against Germany. Brazil, Germany and France are a world of their own when they're doing their best, which means getting into a 5-point lead against Argentina by half time shouldn't be a problem for Korea. Details

We have a duel between two teams who on average play at 58.4 and 56.6 scores so, statistically speaking, the margin has been hit. But the synergy factor which took the first head-to-head of these teams to 68 goals has been completely ignored. Both teams are tough, their defense is their weaker link of the game. That's a plus for an over right at the start. Another plus is the fact that Dinamo relax once they secure a win. They showed that loud and clear in the last two rounds, so they went with Baia to 63 goals and Focsani to 75. From teams who play with a stronger pace Dinamo played at 61 against Ploiesti, and they only came up to 51 against the city rical Steau. The away team have also ended up in a lot of overs this season regarding today's margin against stronger-paced teams. Against Dinamo they went up to 68, against Steau to 67, Ploiesti to 59. Vaslui also don't have the power to play equally strong against Dinamo, so it's realistic for Dinamo to relax later. Because of that, a match at 60 points is the total reality. Details

Argentina scored 13 against Germany, 12 against France and I cannot imagine that they could score 5-6 goals more against Brazil, who are also very physically powerful, completely focused on defense and play a slow paced game. Also, Argentina are their eternal rivals, which is why we cannot expect any kind of holding back from the Brauilians, especially since goal difference can play a role in the final outcome in the group. They already met twice this season. Argentina finished at 15 the first time and at 20 goals the second time. Brazil are even better now with Amorim, as one of the key defense players. That will make this even a greater challenge for Peruchen's team. The shallow 6-0 Brazilian zone does not suit Argentina. They don't have a single good quality shooter, which means that scoring 18 goals in a slow paced game that is expected today is a big challenge. Soubak's team conceded 24 to Korea, who play a much faster pace and does not suit them. They conceded 21 to Germany, a team with much quality much greater than Argentina's. Their +20 goal difference from the second round says it all about it. Kongo scored 11 against Brazil and I don't expect Argentina to score a lot more. It's more likely they will stay at 15 than get close to 20 goals. Details

France beat the Asian champions from Korea 24-21 in London and 27-22 in Serbia. The reason is very simple - Korea struggled greatly with the French defense. Only Ryu could get past that zone defense and nothing has since changed. Beating France with only one shooter is very difficult. Especially since France seem even more compact in defense and they are overall better in quality. The improvements in offense and transition especially, are visible as well. They are now a team at their peak and this is where they want to do well. Korea said they would fight for gold here as well. They did the first game against Brazil well but that was a performance that was no where near the one France had. The opponents helped the Koreans to win as well. The greatest problem for Brasil was the deep zone but I think the French will respond to it better. I think the French will have the upper hand in two other segments as well - the well experienced pivot Kamto and Leynaud, who is at least one level above Park (16-6 in saves in the first round), and a lot better defense. The handicap at France is a good option, as well as the team under at Korea. Details

We have a classical duel of two teams dedicated to good defenses in a match with a lot of point value. From the start the situation is perfect for an under and the margin (created completely statistically) is not too low. Especially if you know that the first mat of the season the teams ended with 47 goals. CSM has eight unders and 10 overs on this margin, but we have to look at the situations in which they hand the overs. It was like this: against Baia Mare led by the offensively sharp Walther they stopped at 55, as well as in the total fiasco against Focsani and against Vasuluij who are playing very tough. Then they played at 56 against Calasaria who was in a defensive crisis, and they stopped at 54 in a fiasco against Galati. The most fresh overs in the league were against Odorhei (55) who have, in the lack of good offense options, decided to play 3-3 defense and after that they went in with a stronger transition, looking for easy scores. In the last round they finished at 58 against Steau who as a rule run throughout the 60 minutes. The key of the overs was in the opponents, not CSM. As soon as a defensively better team was on the other side, or a team who play slower, they stayed in today's margin under. Timisoara are very defensively oriented who don't run around because of the not so wide roster. They went over today's margin only against Ploiesti (55) who are very tough, and when they fell apart against Focsani (57) and Galati (62), and against Targu who still played tough at the time. In all of the other matches they remained at 53 and less, and in the last two rounds even against Dinamo (53) and Odorhei (51), both tough teams. Today the're up against CSM who are much slower, just like Timisoara. Considering that detail and the high point value of this match, it doesn't seem realistic to me that this match comes close to 55 points. It's a lot more realistic that it remains at 50-ish points, despite CSM being stronger for Mojsovski today. Besides, he's a player who is used to playing slow, not one of those who will run around. Details

I really don't understand one bit where the bookmakers got the 54 goal margin for this game. This is a big Styrian derby, and also very important points-wise. Two defensively oriented teams are facing each other. They played the first duel in Bruck at 44 goals, considering the pace at which they played, it couldn't have gone up to 50 even with top efficiency. In comparison to that duel, even more details are leaning toward the under today. Jovanovic's absence could blunt even further the away team's offense. The home team's offense is already blunt - they haven't scored over 27 against anyone this season. I don't see a reason why home team's offense would start working today. In a local derby, an extremely important game points-wise against a defensively quality team. The same thing goes for the away team, so it crazy, in my opinion, to expect a duel that leans towards 55 goals. I wouldn't be surprised if the game stayed at or under 50 goals. Details

Oman already showed that they are not motivated to play games that are not important. The one against Australia is one of those games. Oman's poor defense was even worse in such matches, they conceded 35 goals against Japan in a game of this kind and even the horrible Uzbekistan managed to score 33. Qatar scored only 31 because Valera decided to slow the pace down. I don't expect Australia to hold back as they are known as a team that always does its best. They are currently averaging 20 goals but they played defenses much better than Oman's team (Uzbekistan is the only exception). I would not be surprised if they at least get close to 33 goals. Even if they finish at 25 and knowing that Oman scored at least 29 in each match, and given their offensive potential, this should finish at over 55. Details

First and foremost, these are two defensively oriented teams. Resita have been playing at 51,3 goals the entire season, Baia are at 54,4 but with a dropping tendency since Pop took them over. Defense is more important for him than it was for Walther at the start of the season. Furthermore, this game is extremely important. It is played at the verge of play-off zone, Baia can, with a win, go from ninth to fifth position. Except for the point importance and statistics, there two more details in favor of the under. The first is the fact that Resita's players have been exclusively having physical training, and that has to felt on home team's otherwise slow pace. The second detail is the fact that the away team lose more in the offense with the absences than they do in the defense. Their key defensive players are still in the line up, and is very likely that Pop will focus on that part of the game today. In such situation, I cannot see a game that will lean towards 55 goals, it is more realistic for me that the sum will be around 50. Details

When they need the win the most, Qatar play fierce defense. At this competition they conceded 9 against horrible Uzbekistan, than 19 against Japan and 23 against Arabia. They conceded 15 of those goals in the first half. Rivera then asked for maximum approach against offensively oriented Iran and Oman. Qatar stopped them at 17 and 20 goals respectively. I don't expect Korea to go over 20 goals today considering the importance of the game and I believe that the best option is their team under. Since it is not widely available, I will take the overall under for a unit less. There is definitely value in that option as well since Korea also have something to show defensively. They conceded 20 against Iraq, 16 against Australia and 23 against China. Against offensively oriented Bahrain they conceded 31, but they totally fell apart in the last 20 minutes. In the first 30 minutes they conceded only 12 goals. I doubt they can repeat such bad finish of the game. Even if that does happen, Qatar will definitely not rush like Bahrain did to score easiest possible goals. Since Rivera has been leading this team, their pace slows down after they take 5-6 goal lead. They later try to increase the lead with strong defense, and not by rushing. This is very good even if they possibly fall apart, which had not happened in their previous clash. At the Asian Games, Qatar won 24-21. Current competition is even more important and I don't expect this game at over 50 goals. Details