betprepare.com

There are four teams at the small countries EC, the hosts Iceland, and Northern Iceland, Cyprus and Luxembourg. The Cypriots easily beat N.Ireland yesterday, but the Irish are amateurs, and those 3-0 are no big surprise. Luxembourg beating Iceland 3-1 was a surprise because they won by 26 points difference total. Their best player Ryhlicki only had six points, because he was being spared for this duel. They had 13 aces, seven blocks, and left a great impression. Luxembourg are doing great here, with Zuidberg to help, with the same lineup for years, and a clear plan. The Cypriots pointed out Papadopoulos, Pamvohaikos, and Luxembourg have two players who are playing the CL, and are worth gold here. I don't know how the bookies based their odds here because there aren't many matches to compare this with, only their duel two years ago at this same competition. Luxembourg won 3-2 at home, but they made a lot of progress since, and I can't say the same for the Cypriots. Luxembourg gave a hard time to Austria in the EC qualifiers last season, they beat Lithuania, and played more big games than Cyprus. I'm really convinced that Luxembourg should be the favorite here, so there should be no handicap. If they win this, they'll definitely get the gold because they're playing N. Ireland in the last round. Details

The league playoff in the Plus league this season will be played by only four first-placed teams, following the system used in the Champions League. So, a 3-0 win or 3-1 would bring three, 3-2 two, and losing 2-3 one point, and the total result from two games will give the finalists. In case it's evened out, a golden set will be played. So, every won/lost will matter, and no doubt both teams will give 120%.
Jastrzebski coming to the Top 4 is a surprise for many, but they did make a great team with Kamp, Hidalgo, Muzaj, and recently they hired the German Schwartz. Actually, they came back to where they belong after two bad seasons where they were focused more on patching up things financially. ZAKSA will be defending the title as the "one", but they have right to be afraid of Jastrzebski. The coach De Giorgi still can't use the injured Tilie, which is a handicap because Buszek is not on the same level as he is.
Jastrzebski and ZAKSA played three official and one friendly game this season, and every one ended with high numbers:

- the friendly one (neutral court),
Sep 15th 2016, Jastrzebski - ZAKSA 1-3 (22-25, 28-30, 25-23, 20-25)

Plus league

Oct 29th 2016 ZAKSA - Jastrzebski 3-2 (25-21, 20-25, 25-16, 25-27, 22-20; with Tilie playing)

Feb 10th 2017 Jastrzebski - ZAKSA 2-3 (25-23, 25-23, 19-25, 18-25, 11-15; without Tilie)

Polish Cup (semifinal, neutral court)
Jan 14th 2017 ZAKSA - Jastrzebski 3-1 (25-23, 23-25, 27-25, 25-20)

So, 226, 209 and 193 points in the official games, and 198 points in the friendly one. Exactly half of the sets played (9/18) were won thanks to the difference in points, and that shows that the difference between these two teams is not big. Add to these numbers the games these two teams played against the other semifinalists (SKRA and Resovia), Jastrzebski had 181 points against Resovia twice, ZAKSA 205 and 137 in the last game that was irrelevant. With SKRA the same thing, ZAKSA 3/3 (199 in four sets, 204 and 196 points), Jastrzebski 2/2 (207 and 214 points), that is 8/9 times over this margin, with the only under being in the game that was irrelevant.
All those numbers can definitely not be ignored, and the system of the competition in the semifinal makes sure this will be another game with high numbers, and the margin that was set doesn't correspond neither to the statistic nor the quality of these teams. Details

There are several reasons why we should bet on home team's win here and for a higher stake. Ajaccio won the Cup last season, that was their first trophy ever and there is some sentimental value there. Coach Ferrandez said several times that the Cup is their priority, and they showed that in the competition so far. Home court is a big advantage for them, even in less important games, and since today's game is one of the most important in the season, the arena is sold out. They are still having some injury problems, but the situation is stabilizing. Mijailovic got a chance in the last game, Siirila has been fit for 2 weeks, and Petreas could also be back, so only Miranda and Morgando are out. Even in their worst crisis, 15-16 days ago, Ajaccio defeated Toulouse with only 9 players 3-2 away. If we look further, we will see that Ajaccio won the last 5 games and that Toulouse have not won their head-to-head since 2014. Toulouse cannot count on Zagonel today, their captain and most experienced player, and Basic is not completely fit after shoulder injury. Ajaccio's record at home this season is 10-1, they defeated Tours, Chaumont, Toulouse here. Actually their home record is 23-4 if we count in last season, while Toulouse's 2-5 away this season (8-13 with last season) does not seem convincing. Of course both teams are dreaming of the big final in Paris, but Ajaccio seem much closer to that than Toulouse. Details

Ploesti and Piatra will play the 13th round match today. Piatra are in a big crisis, both financial and game-wise. Some of their players left, among them top players Laza. Even when he was on the team, they were bottom table on a 1-12 record. On the other hand, this is a very important match for Ploiesti because the three points would see them take spot 4 before Craiova. The Romanian championship isn't typical and there can be no holding back. Plioesta are 5-1 in the championship and 8-1 overall home. Piatra are horribe away, they got just a set in 6 games. That was against the completely redesigned Steaua in the first game. They lost that by 13, to Arcada by 24, in Craiova by 27, to Baia Mare by 17. Even Cluj beat them by 18- They covered the handicap against Caransebes (-9) and Steaua with a better team. The home team didn't really cover this handicap but they have been struggling with injuries since the start of the season and when they were sort of complete, they beat Cluj by 26 and Cluj beat Piatra by 18. They have +16 against Unirea, who also beat Piatra. Last weekend, they trashed Stiinta Bacau away by 18. I think Piatra will lose by 19 to 24 points. Ploesti won by 23 in Piatra and by 30 here last season. Details

Russian team's coach Chutcev said that winning this competition is one of the most important goals for his team this season. They were stopped by Verona last season and want to win it this season as the first Russian team. They opened the competition by trashing Shakhtar 3-0, 3-1. What is more important is the point difference (+17 in Belarus, +24 in Russia in spite losing a set). BATE is the third best team int Belarus, just short of Stroitel and Shakhtar, both of whom were trashed by the Russians. For comparisons sake, BATE won one match against Shakhtar 3-2 but won one point less while losing the other one 1-3 by 10 points. That second one was played in Borisov. They will meet Fakel in Mogilev on neutral grounds. BATE and Fakel played last season, also in Challenge Cup. The Russians have +22 in the 3-1 win and +14 in the 3-0 win. That BATE team lost by 36 points combined and three top players are not on the team anymore. The Russians were serious about Shakhtar and they will be serious about BATE as well. That is why I'll take this handicap with higher stake. Details

When it comes to Paris and Ajaccio matches, things are pretty straightforward as they are always extremely productive, no matter where they take place. In the last 9 games (last three seasons), they went over this margin in 8, while 6 had 5 sets. This season in Supercup, they played at 225 points in Ajaccio, before that at 216, 205, 191. The only exception was last season's meeting at Corsica which Ajaccio won in straight sets. However, the team from Paris was focused on Champions League back then. Numbers are no lower the seasons before - 209, 208, 187, 211. The Average in the last 9 games is 197. These teams are very similar as their results with the same teams of this season show (Cannes, Toulouse, Montpellier - almost identical results). All of that only makes me believe that this margin is too low and that we should go with higher stake. Details

Tiikerit are playing in the Czech Republic for the second time this season and I think they won't have it good this time either. The Finish side played Liberec in Champions League qualifiers and failed to defend the lead from the first game (3-0) and then lost the golden set to end up in CEV Cup. Karlovarsko invested a lot into the team and the results show. They're in spot two in Extraliga on a 10-2 record and 8 straight wins, looking at all competitions. They beat Selver Tallinn in 1/32 final 3-1, 3-1 to get to the games with Tiikerit. Karlovarsko covered the handicap in 8 wins out of 10. With the two Server games, it's ten wins with 3-0 or 3-1 in 14 games, which is more than respectable. They have four 3-0 or 3-1 wins home in 6 games. Tiikerit lost the derby match to Huurikaani (0-3) and recorded two unconvincing 3-2 wins over feeble Isku. It's clear that they struggle with form. Their problems were particularly bad away where they are 4-5 looking at the championship and Europe. They lost all the tougher games in Finland (Hurrikaani and VaLePa). The Czechs have a lot of motivation, they're the better teams and I believe they will get three points today. Details

The British are coming back to the European stage after over 20 and I am convinced they will be gone after two games against Kaposvar. IBB Polonia London are the best English team, but England and volleyball don't really go together, and the quality of their league is very low. Even in such a league, IBB Polonia are not at the top. they lost to Team Northumbria 3-1 away, by 17 points. With that defeat, they lost a set in four more games (Wessex, Sheffield, London Lynx, Cardiff Celts) and that tells us enough about their quality. They have an international team, but those are players of questionable quality, who could not find a place in teams from their countries (Romania, Slovakia, Spain). Kaposvar are a ream of lower quality in Europe, but they regularly play in Europe, they are playing in a much stronger league and they are much better than London. They easily advanced through the qualifications against Karava, they won 3-1 at Cyprus, and in Hungary they won by 25 points, and Karava still have two serious foreigners, they are playing in a stronger league and have much more experience in Europe. I don't know that the bookmakers focused on while setting the margins, but Kaposvar are a good, experienced team, playing at home where they defeated teams much stronger than London. London lost their only stronger game in their Championship by 17 points, Kaposvar are definitely better than the amateurs from Northumbria and I expect them at at least 18 points difference.

******
Except the handicap on the points, other options are also good, like under on total of the game (142.5), the result (3-0), Kometa's under (77.5) and London under (66.5), Score after three sets 3-0. Details

Zenit will probably win this in straight sets but I don't think they will trash the opponents today for a few reasons. First of all, Leon is injured and won't be there for two weeks. His absence is very important for quality of serve and attack. Without him, Zenit are not the same team. The second reason is, the team from Kazan have much more important matches coming up over the next few weeks. They have the Arkas meeting in Champions League and then the Russian Cup finals. They want to reach top form for those important games. The third reason are their results and Nova's results.In 26 matches of this season, Zenit trashed their opponents by 22 points only 7 times this season. Dynamo Moskva (+28), Ural (+29) and horrible Neftyanik (+32) in the championship, Talaa El Geish (+27) at club WC and Yaroslavich (+29),Ural (+31) and Torpedo (+22) in the Cup. Leon played most of those games. He hit 15 points in three sets against Dinamo, 12 against Ural, 4 in two sets against Neftyanik, 9 against Talaa El Giesh. He participated in most of those Cup games. Their matches against teams similar to Nova are as follows: (Ugra Samotlor +15, Dynamo LO +19, Kuzbass +17, Fakel +18, Gazprom Ugra +8). They won those by 15-19 points on average with Leon on the team. Last season, looking at just Superliga, they have 7 wins by 22+ but 4 against against Nizhny and Krasnodar, who are horrible teams. On the other hand, Nova didn't lose any of the 23 games by 22 or more points. The season before, they never lost any of the 26 games by 22 or more. They have 49 straight games with this handicap plus 50 from 2014/15. That means they have 98 games which they didn't lose by more than 22. The head-to-head matches from the last two season are very relevant, especially when it comes to Zenit because they didn't change much on the team. They met 6 times and Zenit never covered the handicap, not even when Nova was in the second league. We have +12 and +16 in the Cup two years ago, +20 and +17 in the championship and this season Nova beat Zenit's subs 3-1. It was +15 in Kazan where Leon played the whole game. Zenit are 7/26 in covering of this handicap, Leon is gone, they want top for for Champions League and Cup F6. Nova lost by these many points only once in the last 3 seasons. That makes me take these +21,5. Details

These two teams played yesterday and a left completely different impression. Hypo beat Salzburg easily (25:16, 25:13, 25:16) even though coach Gavan gave top opposite Teppan, top setter Yenipazar, starting receiver Jukhami a day off. He deemed this a much tougher and more difficult game. He said that he wants to see a better approach and three points. Niederosterreich needed five sets to beat Klagenfurt who were weakened but that same Klagenfurt beat Hypo with half effort at 127 points. Anyone can have a bad day but the performance they put up there shows that they have some limitations and weakness, just like the fact they never beat any opponents. Amstetten are weaker than last season, they lost some important players and their results with weaker teams need to be taken with a pinch of salt. Two more powerful opponents Posojilnica and Waldviertel beat them at 119 and 132 points. Hypo are better than all those teams. The trip to Innsbruck, which lasts a few hours, needs to be mentioned too. It seems like we will see a new win for Hypo at under 230 points because they will not hold back before the derby match with Posojilnica in 4 days. We have 140 points in Innsbruck last season but the home team had some changes on the team, while Amstetten had a more powerful team. We also have 133 and 124 points in Amstetten. Details

Narbonne had Tours on their knees last round but for some reason, they also play close games with them and the bookies have clearly been influenced by that match when setting the margins for this meeting. Still, Narbonne do horribly home. They are 2-26 away looking at this and the last two seasons and they do particularly badly in Corsica. They didn't get a single set in 5 out of 6 games there and the defeats have been pretty nasty. They lost by 35 total points, by 14, 16, and 14. The last three were back when Ajaccio were in the lower part of the table. The team from Corsica didn't do well away so far but they are pretty convincing home. They covered this handicap agianst teams better than Narbonne and in 4 sets (Nantes +13, Toulouse +16). Toulouse beat them in Narbonne by 14 and Nantes beat them home by 13. They clearly let go after the first set. The home team is very motivated after the last defeat in Montpellier while Narbonne lost by 19 to Nice, their direct rivals. I expect Ajaccio to win this by 14 points. Details

Everyone will come with respect and not many teams will leave with points from Toulouse, as Tours had a chance to see. Nice didn't impress me with their two wins because Narbonne and the second-league Nancy definitely cannot be compared to Van den Dries and his guys. Neither the results nor the statistics show it, and while Toulouse wrestled with Tours and Ajaccio, Nice got crushed by Paris (who aren't consistent) and Montpellier with 50 mistakes, and they had over 20 even against Narbonne. The hosts have the offensive potential, Van den Dries is the best shooter of the league, Tammen the fourth block, Louati and Zagonel are consistent while Nice only have Egleskalns and their offense is not their forte. The guests problem will be even more obvious in the away game, and they have to play a motivated host, so I expect Toulouse to win with one lost set maximum. Van den Dries can handle this himself. Details

Hylte are alongside Linkopings the toughest club in Sweden this season. They acquired settler Lushtaku who gets the team to the next level. Lindberg, Tegenrot and key player Luna stayed on the team. They opened the championship with the away win over Orkelljunga in 4 sets. RIG is basically the Swedish federation academy and cannot be relegated. They changed 10 players since last season. Their players are very young now. In the first three games, they recorded bad defeats - to Tierp by 26 points, Falkenberg by 29 and Sodertelge, who are candidates for relegation, by 35 last round. Of course they recorded unders with FVBK and Sodertelge (115 and 121 point). With Tiero, they went at over 170 points. Looking at the sets they lost, we have 122 points. Hylte are better than those teams and their motivation doesn't seem to be questionable. This is their first home game of the season and they want to do their best. Hylte are contenders for the title, RIG are at 135 points on average in three matches. Not counting the sets they won against Tierp, their games finished at 119 points. Last year they played at 125 points (RIG hosted that game) and 127 but we need to say that RIG were basically a junior team and Hylte were not as good either. Hylte should have a good approach here and that could see them win at 115 points. Even this low margin has good value. Details

You need to try really really to beat someone by 29 points in a match of 122 points. Do Zenit need to do that today? Definitely no. They will win either way and get in the semis. This tournament is going to be exhausting, with 5 games in 6 days. On the other hand, Tala El Gaish are not a naive team. They have 8-9 former and current Egyptian internationals and Hernandez from Cuba. They are not a weak team and they will try today. Also, Zenit have three overs and an under at the 121,5-point margin when it comes to first matches. The under was against a Canadian university team. They went at 117 points with them and that teams cannot be compared to the Egyptians. They played Capitanes and Arecibo from Puerto Rico last year at 130 points and Plataneros de Corozala, also from Puerto Rico, at 153. With one of the weaker former Iranian champions, they went at 141. Let's say that the Iranians are close to the Egypt quality-wise (even though they're not), we still have two overs with Puerto Ricans who are everything but a disciplined team. They had unders with Zamalek from Ehypt but that was the last game for the Egyptian team at the tournaments and they didn't try in it. If Tala El Gaisha will try, they will try today in the first match. They need to get 47 points in three sets for this margin. That is more than 15 points per set, which they have enough quality for. Looking at Zenit in Russia, they are 4-3 at this margin but they didn't try their best with weaker teams. They have an average of 17 errors in 4 championship games and Talaa have the quality that could see them get another 30 points through attack, blocking and serve. Changing time zones and staying at under 122 points against good opponents isn't easy. I would probably steer clear of an under if this was the last group match but taking into consideration Zenit's opening games at WCs, opponent's quality and motivation and the fact they will probably play 5 matches in 6 days, this becomes a great tip. Details