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The odds at paris at set ridiculously low, which resulted in a ridiculously low margin. The home team were getting complete in stages, with the last player joining on Wednesday. Ajaccio have been complete since the start o f preseason. Ajaccio have never had this good a team and this much experience. They are among the most-experienced teams in the league and I don't believe the the fact they play away will affect them in any way. Paris have a slightly better individual quality but that doesn't mean they'll win today. The bet has a good base in stats as well. The last 7 games went over this margin, 4 of which were decided in the 5 set, while the other three finished at over 185 points. The realistic margin is much higher than this one given the fact the average of the last 7 games is 198 points. We have to do with this with higher stakes. Details

Arkas made quite a few changes on the team and I daresay they are not as good as they were last season. The fact is that players like Rouzier, Kawike Shojij and Borges joined but almost all the training sessions were done without coach Hoag, who joined the team some ten days ago. Rouzier is exhausted from the EC and unavailable for this game, according to the last info we have. They lost the last game to Sahinbey 0-3 and Sahinbey are a bit better than Plevne. Home court advantage should make up for that different in quality, though. Plevne are a newly-promoted team with an interesting list of players. Statsenko, Yilmaz, Rozalin Penchev and the Cuban receiver Salgado are all there. They have spent the entire preseason together, unlike the visitors. I will always go with the team that has a continuity of games with a complete team. A set at the home team seems like a very good bet. Details

Lyon suit Sete perfectly. They beat them in 5 out of 6 games and lost here lsat year in five sets when Lyon were on a roll. Prandi left Lyon to get replaced by Chalendar, who is not as good. Nikolov will most likely be out today but he wouldn't be able to help his team much anyway since he's 38 and just played 5 tough games in two weeks. The visitors prepared for the season in peace. Lafitte and Rossard joined two days ago but they didn't play much at European Championship, which means they are not tired. Lyon had pretty bad results in preseason, while Sete did great. I believe they will open the season with a win. I expected the odds to be close, not Lyon as the favorite. Details

No doubt that Poitiers gathered a pretty good team, but I think the bookmakers are overestimating them here. Still, I wouldn't gamble with a winner here, I'd go for the option of over points, since the margin is really low, these two teams are pretty evened out. Both had to play matches with high numbers in the preseason, and that's how their seasons began, too. I don't think anything's changed in a few days since. Nantes will have Westphal and Solo today, who missed the duel against Tours. Their comeback is only a plus for this bet. I think we'll see an evened out match, and at least four intense sets, which is enough to break the margin set for this. Details

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The odds for the hosts' win from the starting 1,40-1,45 came to the incredible 1,7+ and I can't miss that. The market is probably reacting to Ferreira's absence. However, the Portuguese didn't play a single preparation match and I can't think of his absence as a handicap. Besides, without him they beat Narbonne twice (3-1, 3-2), and in front of their fans they won in four sets. In one poll about which three teams will get knocked out of the league in the 2015/2016 season, Nabronne got almost 1/3 of votes, and next to Nancy, they're the biggest candidates for being knocked out. I agree with that because, despite changes, Narbonne don't have Ligue A quality. Even though there are no official confirmations about Prousalis's absence, everything points to not seeing him on the court, which is a big handicap for the away team. Narbonne lost both preparation matches, and with Prousalis in the line-up. They didn't win in Toulouse since 2012, and I don't believe that tonight they will end their four-game losing run. I think the starting 1,40-1,45 were more realistic offs, considering everything mentioned here. For the braver ones I would recommend a handicap set which is paid off excellently, and the -2,5 points seem like a "safer" bet because I expected a bigger handicap on Toulouse. Details

Hats off to Bulgaria for everything they've done so far but I think their European championship campaign ends today. They won all the matches so far but they never met any of the top teams. Germany are simply not a top team at the moment and Bulgaria took advantage of that. The French are on the the top teams in the world today. Diversity in offense, great game organisation, brilliant serve and brilliant defense - that's something Bulgaria have not been faced with here so far. A move to a different country is not something that would put me off this bet and neither are the 12500 fans in Sofia. I cannot forget about their clash from Varna yet which the French won easily. The visitors have a very same team here, the Bulgarians are without Zhekov, Salparov and Nikolov, all three very important players. The French seem to be the better team in all segments, especially in defense and serve. The only upper hand for Bulgaria is the packed Armeec Arena. The French won by 18 points in total in Varna, while we need only 10 for this bet to be successful. Details

The only logical explanation for the Netherlands being the favorite here is the one more win they have compared to Slovenia. But hey beat Germany because the German coach decided they would. Even so, the Dutch struggled in that match. They simply do better when they are not the favorites and the same goes for the Slovenians. Slovenia have the best and the third best receiver of the EC (Urnaut and Cebulj) and the second most effective player (Cebulj), which is not a coincidence. They have more options in offense than the Dutch, who rely on Kooy and Van Dijk too much. Coach Giani said that this is Day D for Slovenia since QF would be their greatest result ever. I therefore cannot agree with these odds. This is a 50-50 game at best, even though I would personally give Slovenia the upper hand because they seem to be a more complete team. I have to go with the Slovenian win at these odds. Details

Group D will be closed by Serbia and Russia in a big clash for the top position. All that makes the stakes very high, they are fighting for direct qualification for the quarter-final, and considering the form these two teams are in, I can't see this as a 'blowout' game. Russia eased to victory in their first two games, especially yesterday against Slovakia, but the Slovaks were under the impression of the unfair loss to Serbia and they haven't given even 50% of their abilities. It is known that Serbia have problems in the first games at big competitions, but the way they defeated unpleasant Finland is more than impressive. We shouldn't forget that the Russians lost all of their stronger games at the recent World Cup, and Serbia with Grbic are one of the Top world teams. Low margin is caused by the underestimating odds on Zbornaja which doesn't reflect the current situation. They went over today's margin in six of their last ten games, but it is hard to make comparisons with those matches because Serbia are looking much better today, while Russia are not looking as good as they used to. Either way today's game ends, I am convinced that the margin in their matches cannot be set under 183-184 points so over on this margin seems like a great bet. Details

Germany suffered two defeats in Sofia, but yesterday's against Netherlands should be seen from a wider perspective. Everyone saw how they lost, selector Heynen made a farce out of a game and deliberately lost so they would avoid Poland in the quarter-final. Legitimate move, but not in the fair-play spirit. Key players rested yesterday while the Czechs 'wrestled' the Bulgarians in a game that lasted longer than two hours. They were completely spent physically because Smejkal didn't make too many rotations, and there must have been an emotional drain as well. It is sure that the German calculations will be an additional motivation for Czech players, but the question is just how much will that affect the final result because the Germans are more experienced and better team. I expect a one-way game, and the last time they faced each other was in 2013 at the European Championship, and the Germans won by 19 in small points, even though Czech Republic had a stronger team than they have today. Details

The odds for Estonia dropped a bit, for reasons unknown to me. I'm very well informed with the situation in Croatia and this is not a bet based on some affection. Estonia took a set from France, they used their fall and because of that they are favored today. Still, Croatia were competitive in both Italy and France. Except for the "numerous" advantage, they didn't show anything more than Croatia, on the contrary. Croatia are statistically better in all segments, even the reception which is the weakest link of Simunic's team. Furthermore, Croatia have the great Igor Omrcen, a man who solved by himself opponents which are far more better than Estonia, but we shouldn't forget Galic, Zhukousi, Mihalj... Zhukouski dosed Omrcen's attacks and I expect him to be fully ready today. I personally expected equal odds, not for Estonia to be the favorites, especially not for 1,50 for how much average their win pays off. The odds for Croatia are pure value, by statistics Croatia should be the favorites and by my humble opinion, realistic odds shouldn't be over 1,85. Details

Given Slovenia's current form, this bet is only logical. hey dealt with Belarus easily yesterday and are now set to face Poland, who are extra motivation for Giani's team. The world champions beat Belgium 3-0 but the second set was decided by a single point. Let's not forget these two teams met in qualifiers and Poland won both games, but not in straight sets. It was 3-1 home and 3-2 in Slovenia. Wlazly, Winiarski and Zagumny, key players from the last World Championship, played for Poland. Expecting Slovenia to win is tough but they shou,d get a set since they're bursting with confidence and have proved maturity in test matches. I think they can get this complicated. Details

Serbia beat Slovakia yesterday after 180 minutes and I believe that has to affect this match. Grbic said they were not in top form ahead of the trip to Italy and they are known to be the team that is improving with each next game. Finland lost to Russia in straight sets but they've played a good game. I think they would have gotten at least a set if they met any other opponent. 2000 fans will be there to support them again today, which is great help. I expect the game to be closer than the bookies. Finland area team that can get a lot through defense, while not lacking attacking skills either. Serbia are the favorite for a reason but I don't think this will be a one-sided win. Details

When you beat France and Serbia in test games and take two sets against Brazil, you can definitely say that that you are a good-quality team. That is precisely what Slovenia did. They have a talented team but didn't have a good coach. Andrea Giani is a good coach and I've seen a lot of Slovenia's test matches and I can say they are in great shape. Belarus, on the other hand, are not. They struggled with mediocre Russian clubs and lost to al kinds of teams. Coach Sidelnikov has a lot of young players on the team, 8 of which are about to play their first ever Eurovolley. Antanovic and Akhrem are gone. Sidelnikov said that if Slovenia play like in European League his team will not stand a chance. I think he really meant that. Belarus hosted those matches and lost easily anyway to Slovenia. They lost the first game 0-3, he second one 2-3 but by 25 points and even though Slovenia didn't have team captain Urnaut t count on. Belarus' biggest problem is reception and transition. Serve and attack are Slovenia's strengths and they will have a great advantage in those segments. The difference in form and quality is great. Everything will come down to Slovenia. I think they will open with an easy win today. Details

The first match of the Russian Cup Quarterfinals is taking place in Kazan today (Zenit are the host). They finished the first part of the competition with 8 wins in 8 games, while dropping only one point. Dagestan surprised everyone by winning spot 3 int e group with Fakel, Lokomotiv, Novosibirsk, Prikaymye and Yenisey, meaning they are definitely not a bad team. They have good players who mainly joined from Superliga clubs. Zenit are without 8 out 12 players from the A team who are participating in their respective national team campaigns. Since coach ALekno invited Kobzar and Verbov to join the national team as well, they lost two new important players. Ashchev and Apalikov are injured. That means Zenit will have playrse from youth ranks like Leon and Bagrey alongside the well-experienced Kuleshov today. That means the visitors have a much better chance of getting a point today, and will not lack motivation and regardless of the absent players at Zenit. Given the odds, a set for Dagestan has to be taken here. Details

Fakel are the favorite in this match without a good reason and that is why the margin is low. They are without Klyuka, a very important receiver, but Ural are without Kovalev, which is important as well. I personally see no difference between these teams and since the match is to take place in Moscow, neither opponent will have the home court advantage. The margin is 2-3 points too low and I don't think there is a chance for this to finish in straight sets. It seems like we're in for a match with a high number of total points. Details

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Kuzbass were beaten by NOVA in five sets yesterday, but even that was enough to confirm going to the Cup Win quarterfinal. So, the coach Matsukevich said he has to give other players a chance, and since they played with their best lineup yesterday, it means substitutes should play. They don't care about the result, so that justifies the decision. Stroitel are actually the Belarus national team, getting ready for the European Championship that begins in 12 days, so I expect them to be real serious. The preparations are in its final stage, the players are fighting for their place at the EC, and they can do that only by playing well. They were beaten by Dynamo Moscow yesterday, so they won't lack motive. So, the substitutes of one team against the players who'll play the EC are facing each other today, so the odds set don't really match the real quality of opposed sides. Details

Except for the handicap, it's definitely worth taking on Minsk/Belarus win. In Kuzbass they turned to other challenger, and Belarus are shaping up for the European Championship and they have to use the fact that the opponents will come out in a combined line-up. Details

The match of the tournament. The visitors are actually the home team but that is not the reason for this bet - all the absences at Paris are. They will be without receivers Massari and Hoag, libero Steuerwald, middle blocker Kreek and opposite Gasparini, who are participating in their national teams' campaigns. The coach can count on only 4 players from the lineup, together with receiver Bahov, middle blocker Fernandez and Kaba. Asnieres are complete and very motivated, as second tiers always are in these kind of games. They played last year and Paris won in Asnieres 2-3 (22-25, 20-25, 25-22, 28-26, 10-15) but with a lot better team. The official visitors should get a set today, even though I would not be surprised even with their win, which is paid very well (9,20 Marathon). The alternative option is 164,5 at 2,37 also offered by Marathon. Details