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There are only two other teams in the league against which Randolph does better than against the Pacers. His average against Indiana is 19,9 points. last year, he hit 22 (7/14) and 18 points (7/12) last season and I think he will be around those numbers again tonight. The Grizzlies did horribly yesterday against the Cavs to suffer the worst home loss since 2008. That is why I expect the Big Three (Conley, Gasol, Randolph) to be very motivated. I decided to go with Z-Bo because of the stats and the matchup. George is a great defender but I don+t think he stands any chance of stopping Randolph, who is some 20 pounds heavier and has no problems handling even centers. I don't expect George to be successful in guarding Randolph, who should be dominant against the typical tall players like Hill and Allen. Neither of them is a typical defender. Also, the Grizzlies's power forward went over this margin in 49 out of 71 games last season. Details

Regardless of the fact that the Jaguars are far from defensive elite, this seems like a too high margin to me. The Bills will be playing tonight without their starting quarterback (Taylor), two best receivers (Watkins, Harvin), one of which is extraordinary, and second best running back (Williams). Clearly, their offense is quite weakened, and even if they were complete, the Jaguars wouldn't demolish them, but they are good enough to keep the game under control. The Bills scored 27 (Colts), 32 (Patriots), 41 (Dolphins), 10 (Giants), 14 (Titans) and 21 (Bengals) this season, and considering the absences, I see them closer to the numbers from the last three games than to those at the start of the season when they were complete and forced to take risks since they faced elite offenses. Details

Even though this is a game with potentially a lot of yards I'm not sure this margin is set properly. I'll try and explain why in short. The veteran Bills' running back missed most of the preparation period due to an injury and has not been there at the very start of the season either. He played is first game of the season in the second week and has since recorded 26 (7+19), 26 (4+22), 109 (10+99) and 2 yards (10-8). He participated in less than 30 percent of plays. He never had more than three rushing attempts in any of the four games (3, 1, 2, 3) and only once recorded more than three catches (1, 2 , 5, 3). Those 5 are from the Cowboys game. That is by far his most successful game and he recorded almost all of his yards in the second play of the overtime when he took advantage of the Cowboys' mistake for an 80-yard catch that ended the game. Even when I take that into account when calculating the average, he is still at 40, 75 yards per game (at 20,75 without that one). That is still under this margin. I don't think the Falcons are any worse than any of the other opponents he was met so far when it comes to defense (Bucs, the Panthers, the Cowboys, the Eagles). Details

I do understand that the game plan can change drastically compared to previous games but given what we've seen in the previous rounds, I find it quite difficult to understand this margin. Granted, Tevin Coleman opened the season as a starter but only because the player who should have been his competition got injured. Sadly, Coleman suffered an injury as well, which allowed Freeman to become one of the most pleasant surprises of this season's NFL. Everything started with his brilliant performance against the Giants and got even better in the last 3 games during which he recorded 362 rushing and 177 passing yards, with 7 touchdowns. His amazing numbers would have been even better had he not spend half of the Texans game on the bench after his team took a 42-0 lead. Coleman made a comeback last week to have only two carries for 3 yards. I don't think he'll play much today unless of course Freeman suffers an injury. The offensive coordinator Shanahan is most likely not be able to believe what Freeman is doing to defenses, which is why he's keep him on the pitch as long as possible. Interestingly, Coleman was put under this passing+receiving option even though he's no threat when it comes to receiving since he has 0 catches, unlike the much more versatile Coleman. Details

I don't know when the Jets became an offensive force, but I'm definitely glad the bookmakers think they are. I think it's ludicrous to set them on this margin. Here's a (bad) comparison - the Patriots were set for only four points over against a team they'll most likely beat with a double-digit difference, and the Jets should, for some reason, fill out the team who are miles ahead when it comes to talent. Okay, the Eagles have been the biggest disappointment of the season so far, but the Cleveland Cavaliers didn't look brilliant right after forming of he "Big three) (James-Love-Irving), and they still almost conquered the league. What the Eagles have is far better from the Jets' roster, especially while their starting running back (Ivory) is dealing with injuries, as is the second best receiver (Decker). Don't forget that the Jets' QB was very prone to mistakes in his career, and just because he didn't make any in these two matches, that doesn't mean we should forget he switched six clubs in his career. Besides, the Eagles aren't as bad as they were in the first two weeks, and the Jets aren't that good, and in the long run, I think this margin is very far off. Personally, I wouldn't put the Jets over 22.5 points against 70% of the league, they nurture a conservative style based on numerous rushing and firm defense, and they only take a risk when it's absolutely necessary. Details

I think this is a clear under. We've got an extremely strong team on one side, and the Saints on the other. The Saints are without an offensive leader - Drew Brees never missed a match because of an injury since 2006, and that shows how weird this situation will be for the guests. Luke McCown will be leading their offense. The last time he completed the pass was in 2013, and his last start was in 2011, when he was still playing for the Jaguars. In the previous nine starts, his teams were limited to only 12.4 points, and he added 9 touchdowns with 14 interceptions in his career, so his passer rating of 68.3 is awful. No doubt the coaches will try their best to spare him from the stress, but that could be a problem because the Saints basically don't have ground game (79.0 y/m), and their receiving group isn't even closely as strong as the one from the previous seasons. Even all that would be bearable if McCown wasn't facing one of the best defenses of the league. The Panthers left their opponents at 17 or less points in six matches in a row, the longest active streak in the NFL, and another proof of their consistent quality. They only conceded 26 points total this season so far (the only ones better are the Jets - 17), and they only allow 3.82 yards per action - the least in the league. They also allow their opponents to convert only 25.8% third attempts (2nd in the league). Since they don't really have good offensive weapons themselves, it's almost impossible for this match to turn into shootout, but this will going to be a fight for every inch of the field. Details

It feels like the bookies were more influenced by the name than the reality when coming up with this margin. Peyton Manning is undoubtedly one of the top 3 quarterbacks of all times but he is already 39, has underwent a few surgeries and suspicion grows that he is no longer at his best. All the NFL shows analyzed his games against Ravens and almost all experts raised their concerns regarding the power and precision left in his hand, even during preseason. The new system implemented by the conservative coach Gary Kuniak that almost entirely relies on rushing that 'prepares' play-action pass or screen pass and the alleged back problems together with one short week for preparation are all the more reason for this tip. I'll list just a few pieces statistical data here. In the last 8 games, including one in playoffs, Manning went over this margin (311,273) only against the Bengals and the Raiders, while getting limited to 257, 179, 173, 233, and 211 in others. Last years in the two games against the Chiefs, Manning got limited to 242 and 179 yards. Unless the home don't make some disastrous mistakes in defense tonight, I think this bet will work. Details

Frank Gore is one of my favorite players, but at the age of 32, he can hardly cope with the team as he did two, three, or six seasons ago. Also, he's now in a new system that completely relies on throwing the ball. No doubt playing with Andrew Luck will create even more holes than it did in the 49ers, but I still think this margin is too big against the phenomenal Bills' defense. Besides, coach Pagano said that Gore will be at the pitch count because he wants to spare him for the season finish, which means about 12 to 15 carries, and I think that's definitely not enough to go over this margin. Details

With Nelton's injury Devonte Adam's stocks skyrocketed which is no wonder considering his talent and the team he plays for. Getting balls which are coming from the best quarterback of the league is definitely a privilege, and tonight Adams could catch a lot of those since he will practically be the first option when Nelon's gone, while Cobb is far from being at 100%. Details

Some will say 'why against the host', but if they were at this Championship then they probably wouldn't have any doubt about who the better and more quality team is here. Finland are playing beautiful, and foremost modern, basketball, something like the Golden State Warriors in the finale against the Cavs in moments when Draymond Green played as 'five'. So, they are practically playing with five players in the perimeter, but three of them can win one-on-one duels whenever and wherever they want, and they are also very aggressive in the offensive rebounds. Finland is capable of scoring a lot of points against any defense primarily because of their unusual style and ability of all five players on the court to score three pointers, and I'm pretty convinced that the Hungarians will not be the first ones to find a solution for their game style. OK, they have Perl who is an amazing individual, the audience is also on their side, but those are their only advantages (we shouldn't forget that their starter Szilard Benke got injured, and his presence in the wings is very important defensively). Finland are a much more complete team with a longer bench, and I would even dare to say a tactically better coach, and no one has defeated their opponent with such ease at this tournament like they have (not even Sweden). All in all, it's clear to me who here will advance into the finale. Details

Slovakia don't care much about defense and why would they when t's clear their offensive end can hit a lot of points against anyone. They went over at this margin in all of their games (including those against defense-oriented Sweden and Hungary) and even Moldavia scored 65 and Albania 71 against them. Granted, the Swiss are not particularly offense oriented either but they won't really have a say here. They are a few levels above Moldavia and Albania in offense which is why I expect them to reach at least 70 points, which should be more than enough for them to help Slovakia go over this margin. Details

Moldavia are at least two levels below any other team here. Words simply fail me when I try to explain how bad they are. It almost makes you like them. Sadly, Armenia won't have mercy here just like Belarus and Macedonia didn't. We met up with their coach, who admitted that they expect a win by 40-50 points. I expected something like that back then, maybe a bit smaller difference. Everything under 30 points in this game would be a huge surprise for me. Details

Hungary got very lucky to make it among the top 8. Slovakia had a 9-point lead 18 seconds before the end but they got scared of winning. I don't think the hosts will manage to pull something like it again. They really didn't leave a good impression. In the only two serious games, things weren't good and they even lost one (Sweden). Their player Perla scored staggering 44 points to basically single-handedly win the Slovakia game. Hungary lost the important forward, which makes rebounding even more difficult. They will now have to deal with a team that has Mladenovski (17.0 p, 9.5 r) and Bakoch (9.7 p, 11.0 r), who combine a total of 10 points. Unlike Hungary, Macedonia did rather well in the first stage of the competitions. They beat Belrus in a close game, crushed Armenia, and then beat Switzerland in an unimportant match. Macedonia don't deserve to be underrate like this, especially when considering what I said before. They are bad matchup for Hungary, who don't have Perl today and won't have much use from support from the stands if they don't score something from the perimeter and control rebounding (Macedonia are brilliant in rebounding here) Details

It's a bit surprising to have such a high margin at two such bad team as these. They are bottom table in three point efficiency (Albania 21.3%,Switzerland 21.8%). The issue of Albania's defense has to be raised here but they are not that bad, or better yet, the Swiss offensive end is bad that it won't score about 80 points (I think it will be more like 70). Albania average 62.5 points, their game depends on 2-3 players and they could struggle since the Swiss have much more physical power.I would not be surprised if Albania don't reach the average today. Switzerland didn't score more than 64 point against anyone (61.3 on average), which says enough about firepower and given the lack of aggression in their game and the performances so far, I am skeptical about the possibility for them to do well in offense, even against the physically inferior Albania. Details

I gave this game a lot of though and realized that the first thing that came to my mind was the best one. This meeting will decide who is to reach quarterfinals, which is why motivation will be high on both sides. I talked with Armenia's assistant coach a lot these days and the one word he kept on saying was fight. He knows his team is limited and the only way to make up for the lack of talent is fierceness, which his team did not display against Macedonia. The coach from Belarus was not happy with his team's defense in the Switzerland game either. I think what he said about Armenia says it all: ''Armenia are a very fierce team. They're amazing. We can win if we play good defense''. The importance of the game, Armenia's mentality, what both coaches said, the three points shooting (22/90, 24.4% combined), I think there is a lot of reason to expect an under. Details

Wow, I really didn't expect this. Since both teams played two matches, I think we could get a clear image of their quality, or lack there of, and I think neither of them are capable of getting close to the margin of 80. They're both really weak and don't have even decent scorers, let alone their version of Kyle Korver or J.J.Redick. So far, both shot the awful 20% of three-pointers (13/64). The same story goes for the paint, so, bad. There is no center that could dominate so I expect everything to go through the back players again, and they're below any level in any segment of the game. The match might be a bit faster, but they'll have a lot of turnovers if they do that, and ridiculous situations, so I really don't see how the total count could go over 130 points. Another plus for this pick is that both teams are exhausted because they're not used to playing in this rhythm. Details

Yesterday Hungary survived quite a shock. Being defeated by Sweden came in as a cold shower which is definitely good for this prediction because today they will bite hard from the first second in order to make it up to their fans who cheered for them through the entire match. But, the ball didn't want to pass through the hoop. In the first two matches the Hungarians' shot didn't do them justice. The three-pointers were the desperate 11-for-55 (20%), and far from them having solid shots. After the match against Moldavia (100-35) they soared too high and the landing Sweden prepared for them should mean they won't underestimate Albania tonight of whose (non)quality has been said enough by the words of their selector: "... five of the players from my team don't belong into any clubs, only two of my players are in a serious league. So much for some individual quality and the fact what we actually have...". Let's be clear, Albania is probably two steps below Moldavia, but they're also two or more levels below Hungary who have a very good and agile defense (they have some problems in defending the paint, but Albania don't have the strength to use that) and a very solid offense. The handicap is relatively big, but considering last night's events and the huge difference in quality, the Hungarian's motive and the advantage of the home court, I expect their clear win, somewhere in the sphere of 35 points of difference. I suggest for those who are able to play the under of Albania's points (58.5) also for four units. Details

I'm going against Sweden again. I admit, they are better than I expected here, but I don't think they stand a chance now. Hungary are amazing, they beat Moldova in spite of poor shooting (8-for-31 in three pointers, 8-for-18 free throws) and managed to destroy the opening nervousness with a convincing win. Moldova would really struggle even against mediocre players but that is the kind of a game Hungary needed to find rhythm, i.e., to do the last check before the real deal. While the hosts struggled with shooting, Sweden took advantage of Slovakia' defensive confusion to score 8 three pointers in 16 attempts in the first half. That allowed them to take a 20-point lead after which they started holding back a bit. I don't think they can do like that against this Hungary that will have even more support from the stands today. I would not be surprised if they get a little nudge from the referees if necessary either. Details

Slovakia clearly left a much better impression on me than they have on bookmakers. I don't see them as the underdogs here, or at this tournament in general. They have a few good players on the roster, and seem to have spent enough time together, which is very important in a competition like this one. On the other hand, Sweden were relegated from Division A and of course want to get back there as soon as possible. I?, not really convinced that they stand a realistic chance of it. Quality-wise, they are much closer to teams in 8-14 spots than those at the top. I don't think they can cover this handicap. It seems like this will be a game much closer to a tie than a one-sided win. Slovakia will allegedly have a lot of support from the stands as well. Details

I think we have a typical case of underestimating a small country here. Armenia practically doesn't exist in basketball terms but given their performance yesterday, we shouldn't be surprised if someone slips against them. I talked to their assistant coach I got the impression that they are oing a serious work, which their practice show. They extended it because the Swiss didn't show up, which suggests that this competition is much more important for Armenia. Switzerland finished last in Sarajevo last season in better competition but since most of their roster is unchanged, we can conclude that they are to have a tough time in Hungary, especially because Coture (18.3p, 8.9 r) and Mandic are out. They are the two best players while everyone else in Bosnia played an insignificant part. Armenia simply seem more serious than the opponents and I don't think they lag behind in quality either. In fact, I see them as winners in the opening game. Details