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Even thogh I'm really impressed with how the Texans reacted after the disastrous last season, they don't seem like a playoff material, especially not without Arian Foster who definitely won't be playing tonight. How big of a handicap his absence is is obvious from the fact he's in the top three running backs of the league. The Texans base their whole game on the decent defense and ground play, and they could have problems in both those segments tonight. I think the Bengals are the favorites from the shadow and can go all the way, their offensive potential is phenomenal, and I think they'll soon sort out the problems with the defense which is one of the most expensive ones in the league, and it won many games last season. The whole Bengals' roster seems better than the home team's whose offense will be lead by the quarterback in only his second start of the career, so it wouldn't be a surprise if he has a series of mistakes, it happens to players better than him regularly. The Bengals celebrated on one of the toughest away games in the league last week, (the Saints), and since the rest of the division is after them, they definitely can't relax so I expect them fully motivated in Texas, too. Details

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I'm not convinced the bookies took into consideration the fact home team are without 4 starters. Kevin Martin is out with broken wrist - he scored 37 in the game with the Knicks, and the one before it with 34. He is the top scorer, while the team lost Rubio, Young and Pekovic before. They will have to manage without their 60 points and Rubio, without whom their offense seems much less organized. The Spurs left the Wolves with 92 points and I expect the same from the Kings. Sacramento's coach is talking about defense importance and I don't see a better chance for a great defense performance. Details

Handicap seems too high at first, but I don't think it is. Let's start with some stats. The Wolves' last five defeat were by a double-digit point-difference (29,14, 48, 12,10). Plus, they had the whole team to count on in most of them, while that is not the case today. I pointed out that they are 4 starters down, which saw them lose to the Spurs convincingly last night (121-92). This is their third game in 4 days, which is why I think they'll be losing strength as the game comes to it end. The Kings have no other game this week and probably won't be holding back, even if they take a big lead early on. Details

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Rashard Jennings' injury put the rookie Andre Williams to the first plan, but you can't really say he used the given chance. He was especially bad on Monday against the Colts, when he got only 22 yards in 12 rushing yards. What actually pushed me towards this pick is the number of only 39 snaps played, which is five more than Peyton Hillis. I expect things to go in a similar way tonight, especially if the Giants start the game badly. In the last few seasons, the Seahawks' defense was in top three of the league, and on Century Link Field, much better running backs than Williams play the worst games of their seasons. Details

Lamar Miller's been playing pretty well this season, but I think he won't really be efficient tonight. The first reason is definitely shoulder injury that made him leave the field last week, and supposedly, it's similar to the one the Browns' tight end, Jordan Cameron, had, and he had to miss a few games. The difference between the number of hits a tight end and running back receive is huge, I mean, the running back's job is to rush directly among the biggest guys. Anyway, if Miller is officially questionable, I think he'll play, but his role will be limited. An additional advantage to this bet is the Lions' defense whose best part is the back line. The Lions are second in the league when it comes to stopping ground play (74 y/g), so no reason to doubt their firmness. All in all, I don't see Miller over this margin today. Details

Considering the situation, this margin seems a bit too high. The home team's QB, Tony Romeo, got a back injury during a sack in the last game, and missed all the practices this week, so his status is still questionable. Some sources claim he'll play, others he won't, it doesn't really matter. What matters is he's not at his 100%, back injuries should never be taken lightly, and I doubt he'll have be mobile and strong as he usually is. Ok, DeMarco Murray's there, he crushes any defense he wants, but he could face the wall too because the Cardinals are among the best in the league against the rushing yards, and if they manage to slow him down, this bet sounds even better. Regardless of their successes, I doubt the Cowboys will manage to force the ground game tonight, which means the time will run out faster because the clock doesn't stop after the rushing yards, as it does after the uncompleted assists. Also, the Cardinals allowed over 20 points only to Manning, and it's not like they didn't face the offenses at least as good as the Cowboys' one (Chargers, Giants, 49ers, Eagles, Redskins, Raiders). Details

First time it passed, but not the second because of the Clippers' desperate three-pointer (7/30), but today I'm convinced that the hosts are up for a tough evening. There's probably, in the whole league, not a team whose two players control the ball so much, and with it the attacks. Thunder's Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook generate around 60% of the points for their team, and except for them their team will again miss Jackson, Morrow and Lamb, all key players. Kudos to the rest of the party for L.A., but I don't expect a similar scenario with the Nuggets. The away team are, after a long time, complete which they want to use to return to the play-offs, and to succeed in their intent they have to use chances like this. I simply don't believe that Jones, Adams, Robertson and Telfair will be able to keep up with the Nuggets for long. Details

The limit is a bit higher than yesterday, but I still consider it to be too low. The OKC boys played a solid game for three quarters in Portland, but as soon as the Blazers got serious and as soon as Russell Westbrook was "out of fuel" (two points in the last quarter, 1/6 shot) the difference climbed up to 20 points. The expectation that Thunder will tonight be better is very silly for a couple of reasons. They have only nine players in the rotation out of which a good deal of them played some serious game time so it is possible to see another fall at one point during the second half-time. I don't doubt that Clippers will tire out Westbrook even more tonight, and he'll maybe reach 30-35 points, but with very modest percentages. The hosts can boast with the best offense in the league, and they're especially dangerous from the counter-attacks so in one crazy swoop they could completely drain the Thunders' energy. I remind you that they don't have Durant, Morrow, Jackson and Lamb, the best shooters next to Westbrook. The bet is available in almost all betting houses, and it's not bad to try to under point with the away team. Details

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I'm not prone to taking handicaps such as this one, but this is simply too good to pass. Scott Brooks took nine players to Portland, most of whom are useless on offense. Centers Adams and Perkins can hardly dunk, let alone do something in the post, while Robertson and Jones scored a combined average of 5.4 points last year, with Telfair earning his paycheck outside the NBA. One can also hardly expect Ibaka to both guard the best man on the other team (Aldridge) and score 20-25 points at the same tie. This brings us to Russell Westbrook who will have to make up for the points of Durant, Jackson and Morrow all by himself, which will certainly wear him out considerably, especially since this is the first game of the season, so the final moments will be a bit harder. I have no doubt he will fire off 30 or so shots, but I doubt he can beat the Blazers alone, as they're well tuned in, having only let go of two bench players. Taking it all into account, without the three players I mentioned earlier, one of whom is probably the best basketball player on the planet next to LeBron, Thunder have no chance in Portland. For the less brave a 'straight' win for the home team can serve as a decent addition to a combo ticket. Details

I think the difference between these two teams is somewhat bigger than the bookies see them. True, the Jaguars self-confidence is bigger after they've scored their first win of the season last Sunday, but Browns helped them with it by their numerous errors and unused situations. In the last six games it were all defeats, the Jags scored a 81-185 point difference, and in four out of those six games they allowed their opponents at least 33. Their offense is criminal and I believe the Dolphins won't have too much trouble, especially after an impressive game against the Bears. The away teams' offense is not the greatest of all, but there is enough quality for them to damage Jaguars. All in all, the Dolphins' win at least with a bit of advantage seems pretty clear to me. Details

Losing Stevan Ridley harmed the Patriots' offense pretty much because they don't have a good substitute for him. His role should be split between Jonas Gray and Brandon Bolden, while Shane Vereen will still be doing a bit of everything. Our hero isn't a regular running back who crushes into the heart of the offense with no compromise, but he feels more comfortable when he has a bit more space, usually after the catch. This season, he had a double-digit number of carries only once (7, 6, 7, 8, 9, 5, 11), and had over 43 yards (90) only against the Bengals, while in other games, he had 36, 40, 20, 26, 4, 43. The Bears' defense might not be an elite one, but I think they're good enough to leave Vereen under this margin, at least when it comes to the rushing yards. Details

I failed miserably last week, unfortunately not only with the Raiders, but I believe that one swallow does not a spring make. Changing coaches did have a positive effect on the Oakland boys, who managed to sneak into the end zone four times against the Chargers, but we need to put that into context. Knowing that Rivers can load them up like a sack (a justified fear as the Chargers did score 31), the Raiders were forced to play risky, which they don't do well usually. As their attempt to outplay the opponent last Sunday did not work, I believe they'll return to the conservative approach shared with their opponent in this match. The Cardinals don't have half the offensive power of the Chargers so the home team will have a chance to play it a bit more patiently, especially if their defense manages to hold out against the first few possessions of the Arizona team. If we disregard the last week's match, the Raiders scored 14 points on three occasions and 9 once, while the Cardinals only allowed Payton Manning over 20. Details

I really can't figure out where this margin came from. Fred Jackson got 61, 24, 34, 33, 49, and 26 yards on the ground, and didn't have over 12 rushing yards in either of those games (7, 12, 6, 7, 10, 10). Jackson isn't even a starter and he's often only included into actions on the third attempt, which is often long, so the Bills are forced to call for an assist action. Also, keep in mind that Jackson often stayed in the game this season because of the (fumble) C.J. Spiller's inefficiency and mistakes who's officially the first running back and it wouldn't be a surprise if he'd finally start working tonight, which would make this pick even better. Details

True, the margin seems high at first, but I think it's "nothing" for these two teams, I think both will have +30 points tonight. The Falcons have one of the best offenses of the league, and they're not bad in the defense, either, so it's weird how most of the experts see them in the playoffs. Because they aren't able to stop anyone, they were forced to participate in classic outshooting, and there aren't many teams who'll accept that as happily as the Bears whose coach is one of the greatest offensive geniuses in the NFL. True, it's easier to be genius when you have a good quarterback (Cutler), a top 5 running back (Forte), a good tight end (Bennett) and the best receiver duo in the league (Marshall-Jeffery). I don't see any way how the home team's defense can stop the Bears' offense, and at the same time the Falcons have enough weapons in their lines. All in all, there's not a match that screams "over" more than this one this week, it will be played in the perfect conditions (hall), which is also an important part of this pick. Details

I have to admit this margin surprised me. In the first four games, the Raiders scored 14 points three times and 9 once, and in the meantime, they lost the main coach and will start this game with a rookie quarterback who's got knee and ankle injury, and who wasn't brilliant even when he was completely healthy. As soon as he got the temporary coach job, Tony Sparano promised dedication to the ground game which means faster flow of time, and it's a big question if the offense will work at all since there's a very decent defense opposite of them. The Chargers aren't brilliant at anything, but they're good in everything at the same time. Only the current champions scored over 18 points (21) against them, while the other four opponents were limited to 18, 14, 10 and 0. Philip Rivers plays the best football of his career and I believe he'll keep the ball in his possession for a good part of the game, like he did in the previous weeks. With some bookmakers, there are odds on a number of touchdowns by the home team, with similar odds, but they'll hardly have more than two. Details

I think this margin is 2-3 points too high, and here's why. Everything starts with the defense with the Bengals, which is phenomenal despite the bad performance in Boston, which was partly the offense's fault, too. In the offensive, the rushing game is crucial, it opens up new chances and it's good for the long passes mostly directed towards A.J. Green who is a top 5 receiver in the league, but will be out tonight according to the latest info. Marvin Jones is out as well. The rest of the receivers aren't as good, so I don't think the Bengals will have a lot of big actions tonight, quite the contrary, I don't think they'll have them at all. True, the Panthers' defense isn't the shadow of the last year's, but also not as bad as it seemed in the first weeks. They left the Bears at 24 points last week, and the Lions a few weeks before, and both have much more versatile offenses than the Benglas who went over 24 points this season only against the Titans (23, 24, 33, 14). To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if the guests shock the Paul Brown Stadium. Details