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This bet is based mostly on Caserta, and their choice of firm defense and slower basketball. They never went over this margin in the pre-season, which is no coincidence. As if that wasn't enough, their point guard Silva is questionable today, and he's an engine of the team according to the coach. Without him, their game will be even slower and I'm convinced that not even the fast Varese can change that. Also, three of Varese's important players are questionable today, and that will definitely influence the offense. Besides the total under, a home team's under also sounds like a good pick. Details

The game from yesterday seemed to have a massive influence on today's margins. Both Unicaja and Barca played efficient games and even had 3-point shooting at around 50%. That doesn't happen often and I don't believe we'll see such great productivity today. Both coaches prefer long attacks and well-organized game and we have to take that into consideration. The stakes are high because Unicaja want to win the first Supercup ever before their fans. Barcelona have not won a trophy in a while now, meaning the pressure is getting high. The last three h2h games in Malaga finished under this margin while the ones in Barcelona finished in overs, which cannot be a coincidence. Barca would always crush Unicaja home but things were different here. The teams have not changed much since last season - they are even better on the defensive ends now and I'm sure this will stay under 150 points. Details

These kind of odds should be expected in about a month. They are not realistic at this point and this meeting should be much closer than they suggest. Milano brought the team together later than all the other Supercup teams and had only 5 teams for practices with the entire team. Since the entire team is new, they will need time to get working, as the test games proved. They always had around 20 turnovers per test game. Venezia had a great preparation period, the team underwent almost no changes since last season, which means they are a great danger this early. The well-experienced coach Recalcati is in charge. He knows how to play Cup games and the could even stun Milano today but I'm going to for with the safer handicap option anyway. Details

There are a lot of different scenarios in the last round, as there always are. Both teams want to win and the stakes are high. Though stats might not support this tip, the fact remains that both teams are very oriented on defense. That goes for Macedonia especially sine they're very slow and stand a chance only if this ends up being a slow-paced game. They can control the rebounding, which is the worst segment at Slovenia, and cause the Slovenians quite a lot of problems through it. Slovenia rely on Dragic when the zone is being played. There is no one but him on the team to do anything. Macedonia will probably strip them of the fact pace and I don't think Slovenia can go over 70 in such a game. Details

I don't think this will be a close game despite the bookies suggesting so. Gerogia are bottom table and have done badly so far but their quality is not questionable. They are better than Macedonia at every possible position and I think it's high time we saw their true colors. The second half against Greece yesterday gave them a boost of confidence. They claim to be convinced they would advance through. Macedonia's slow paced game suits them and I'm sure Georgia will control this game. They will not have problems like against tall and slender Slovenians, which is why their quality should transpire today. Details

Slovenia are definitely the favorites in this game but I think they will have a much tougher task than the odds and margins suggest. Slovenia are the worst team at the tournament in rebounds and that is no coincidence . They do not have a proper center other than Omic and I think the Dutch are more than capable of taking advantage of that. The Dutch are dominant in rebounding against most of their opponents and I think they are more than capable of being better in that segment today as well to among other things, slow the game down. Besides, I think this is a chance for the Dutch defense that proved to be their greatest power in the Georgia game as well as the one against Macedonia, even though they conceded a lot of thre pointers but at the same time limited the opponents to under 80 points. Slovenia had excellent shooting in both opening games but still never went over 80 points. Zdovc talked about the importance of defense once again and I'm sure he won't ask for a fast pace. In a slow game with tough defenses, this kind of margin is more than acceptable since I don't think either team will go at 70 points. Details

I don't see how the bookmakers got this margin for Dario Šarić. If he was at the Eurobasket 2013, I'd even agree, but I think this is a miss. Šarić is the base player of this team, next to Bogdanović. He's got great authority and freedom to play as he pleases. Things he doesn't get in his club. The game Perasović is forcing suits him, and he can score any way he likes. Transitions, back shots, back play where he'll get a lot of space against the soft Balažič and Zupan. He's also paired up with Tomić who's the best center of the tournament when it comes to assists. Šarić switches places with Rudež in Perasović's system, and Rudež definitely won't get a lot of minutes because Dario is the only real four we've got here. Šarić said he was really motivated, and in a match as important as this one, he won't fail. Details

This is a bet you have to take regardless of the low margin. Not many teams will play slower basketball than Macedonia and Greece at this tournament. Both teams have coaches who pointed out they want slow basketball, strong defenses, and matches with a low number of points. That was proven in most of the pre-tournament matches, and will be especially important now that the stakes are higher. Besides, the famous rivalry between the neighbors who hate each other will definitely make this an aggressive match. Because of the potential big number of free throws, the stake will be a bit lower, but these two teams will hardly score 140 points total. Details

Croatia played a game at 170 points yesterday, which is definitely not typical of Perasovic. He admitted to have been surprised with how good Croatia's shooting was and that that was the reason the team let go in defense a bit. He will insist on a tougher defense today because it's very difficult to have three point efficiency of 60% every day. The win in the dress rehearsal would definitely mean a lot. Israel's offensive end is weakened since Halperin and Pnini are out, leaving them with Mekel and Casspi as the only good options in offense. It's no wonder Israel are scoring around 70 points per game. Against good defenses like Macedonia and Estonia, they stayed well under this margin. I believe this game will not be extra productive and that Perasovic will look for a tougher match just before the Eurobasket start. Croatia will be without Bogdanovic and Tomas today, which will also affect the offensive end, regardless of the fact Simon and Hezonja will spend more time on the floor. The margin are Croatia is very high and should not be missed out on. Details

This tip doesn't really have a base in stats but I'll try to explain why I'm going with it anyway. Croatia played 6 friendly matches so far, all of which were unders at this margin. However, their opponents were very good in defense (Germany, Turkey, Lithuania and even Bosnia to some extend). Estonia are not even close to that level, they lack the toughness while at the same time playing a much faster-paced game, which is definitely good for this tip. Furthermore, Croatia are superior in rebounding. I believe that Saric, Tomic, and Zoric will grab a great number of offensive rebounds, which will give their team another attack and a better chance of scoring. Marko Tomas' injury has no effect on this because he's a key play in defense, no offense. Like this, Hezonja, who is better than Tomas in offense, will spend more time on the floor. These kind of teams that lack toughness suit him best. And finally, the preparation period is coming to its end, meaning that teams are only better, just like their shooting efficiency. I'm sure Croatia will score over 80 points for the first time in this preparation period today since they have such great players to choose from on the offensive end. Details

The Greeks showed their strength against BiH yesterday, beating them by 39 points difference. Russia crushed them, too, but the Greek way was far more impressive. They didn't allow their opponent over 12 points in any of the periods. The defense are going towards the 100% Katsikaris keeps talking about, and a different player stands out in the offense every time. The width the Greeks have is why you should pick this one today. The second Greek five are much better than the first Russian, and the difference will keep growing through the 40 minutes, even more so because the Greeks are playing at home, and will want to leave an impression. Russia would hardly match them even with their full lineup, and without half their team, it'll be even tougher. It should be mentioned that the Russian backcourt lacks a player who's handy with the ball, who could organize the game, and the aggressive Greek backs will definitely take an advantage of that. Koufos and Bourossis will take care of the rebounds, and it's really hard to find a segment where the Russians could hope to be better. Besides, they stayed at -34, and -38 against similar teams - Serbia and France. We're not saying the Greeks will win this by 30+, but they should definitely have a double-digit difference in their win. Details

I don't see what would make Estonia such a favorite in this match. Their wins against Iceland or the Philippines definitely can't be a measure, those were revue matches. Netherlands are a complete opposite of those teams, their basketball is rough and they have a great defense, as well as rebounds. Those are all elements that shouldn't suit the Estonians, and they won't have it easy like they did against the nonexistent defenses by Iceland or the Philippines. Netherlands will feel no pressure here, while the home team will. They didn't play well against any team with a good defense so far. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Netherlands win this match, and they should definitely cover the handicap. Details

So far Macedonia scored four clean wins in preparations, with an average difference of 18 points per match. But that's far from the realistic state or a show of quality. This team have only one true center, Samardziski, they have a veteran as a play, Ilievski, and brother Stojanovski who are the only true players of this national tea. So far they achieved their results thanks to a strong defense and playing on home court, but now the situation is different. They're up for an opponent whom they can't defensively limit, and also a team who will dominate them physically. In some other match Macedonia may put up a solid fight because the first five would play thirty and more minutes, but there will be a lot of rotations here, and Lithuania's bench is much longer. Macedonia's offense will be dulled here, and Lithuania will raise the difference from one minute to the other and I simply don't see how this can stay at a one-digit difference. Details

Italy definitely have a quality advantage in this match, and the situation will be the same in most of the Eurobasket games, but the fact is that these are just preparations and that Italy are playing each game with 12 players, and their quality fades a bit. On the other hand, Georgia don't have such width and they are basically playing this tournament with their best team, so Markoishvili played for over 30 minutes yesterday. The reason for that is clear, because their motivation at home is great and the Georgians want to win this tournament. They played two great games so far, they dominated the rebounds and that will probably be the case today as well, because their centers are taller and better than Italy's, and if they play at least decently in defense, they have a great chance to make an upset. One thing is sure though, they will not allow the Italians to demolish them in the middle of Tbilisi and this should be even until the very end. Details

Two days ago we watched a torn apart game, winner of which was decided after overtime. The game didn't go into over even after the additional five minutes which is very indicative. As we had warned then. these two teams are not made to run around, they play with classical position 5 and they want to play zone basketball. This especially refers to Germany, who will have to play all of their matches at around 60 points if they want to compete. We have seen a lot of shortcomings in their game and if there weren't for the offensive rebounds through which they scored at least 15 points, they would hardly reach even 60 points in the regular time. There weren't be many differences today in comparison to the game in the Arena, and I expect another great fight, with the only exception that Germany can't play much better than they did in Zagreb, and I see a lot fo reserve on the Croatian side, especially in Tomic, Simon and even Bogdanovic who can play much better than in Zagreb where we was only decent. If Croatia closes the rebound, which Tomic and Saric can definitely do, then they will take away from Germany their last weapon, and in a game at a small number of points, this kind of handicap gets more value. The alternative is definitely the Germany's team under, but I decided for this option because of the accessibility. Details

This is a friendly match which is why a more relaxed approach and a more productive game is expected. However, my perspective is different. Perasovic is not the kind of a coach to allow a relaxed approach before a packed arena. Even though he loves faster paced basketball, there is no craziness about it, which the test matches with New Zealand and Bosnia showed. Both finished at under 140 points. Germany stayed within that margin in their games ass well proving thy will try to stand up to better teams through defense. Nowitzki will play today, which will be a great help for their offense, but he will not spend more than a half on the floor. That should not result in a big rise in points. Since the teams are still in preparation periods and the form is not top level, I don't expect a brilliant shooting night. In any case, given the styles of both coaches, I would set the margin much lower. I just don't see this finishing at over 150 points. Details

Georgia are an impressive team even without the injured Shengelia. They had their ups and downs in the pre-season, but that was expected because Pullen and Pachulia joined them a bit late. With the two of them in an increasingly good form, this team can only grow, and can be a big danger for even the best teams till the Eurobasket. They'll really be motivated here because of the national pride, especially when they're playing at home. Considering that their physical form and quality are far above Estonia's, I'm convinced they'll dominate this match from the beginning to the end, and be convincing regardless of this match not having big relevance. But, when you play a tournament at home, winning is always a must. Details

Latvia are a much heavier favorite than the odds suggest. They did much better and didn't manage to get into quarterfinals only because of the tough situation in the second round. But the win over Spain, the close match with Serbia, and even the good game with Germany show that this team definitely has quality. On the other hand Montenegro lost even to bad teams like Finland and Ukraine. The other important factor is center Popovic's injury that saw him leave the game in the 28th minute of the last game. He is questionable for today. Without him, Montenegro don't stand a chance but even if he does play, Latvia are much closer to a win, like in the group stage when they won 70-61. I expect something similar to happen today. Details

I think we should still bet on Serbia despite their changing form because the are still one of the favorites in my opinion. They played 6 games they needed to get the offense organized and I think those problems are now a thing of the past. The entire team is better now, starting with the top player Stojanovic, who finished the last game with a triple-double record. I base this tip on him because he is physically very powerful and plays excellent defense, while often playing the offense with his back facing the rim. I'm saying that because Nik Slavica played like that at the recent U-19 championship and destroyed the top Turkish player Korkmaz, who will be Stojanovic's main rival today. I think that is a massive advantage for Serbia. Other thing is the paint where Serbia have much more players to choose from. There is also Simanic, the most talented 4 at this tournament. Turkey have no player to stand up to him. Serbia have the upper hand in many aspects and I have to bet on them at these odds. Details

Germany are the underdog for the 3rd time here even though they made it very clear that no one can be the favorite against them. They beat Serbia, played a close game with Spain, which they would have won had Spain not scored each and every three point attempt. France are not so good in that and do not have that many technical skills. Rebound and defense are their most important weapons but they will not be dominant in rebounding here. I don't think they will find solution for Germany's game. We have to wait and see how Gombauld, who is physically inferior, will deal with a lot of passes going for the enters. If he gets into personal faults trouble. France will be in problems.. I don't see this as a one-sided win because both teams already reached QFs. The German mentality is something you can always count on in these kind of matches since they always do their best no matter what. Details