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If this game were important and if the Slovenians needed a point difference, I wouldn't even go for under 37.5 as Goran Dragić can score that many against Korea without blinking an eye. But I see something else here. This is by far the easiest game for Slovenia and they should have it in the bag until half-time, while their important games are yet to come. In these circumstances, I don't think Dragić will play for more than 15-20 minutes and I don't think he will push himself too far in that period either; he is more likely to focus on organizing his team. In the first two games, which were far more important, he spent only 26 minutes on the court and scored 21 and 18 points in the process, but he had a superb shot. He probably won't play so much and his contribution against weak Korea is certainly not crucial and I believe that one of the best point guards of this tournament will only score some 10 points and watch his teammates settle the game. Details

Turkey was a good warning for the US yesterday and even had the half time lead. But the Americans then got serious and scored 63 points in the second half, for the final point-difference of 26. If they managed to do that against slow and tough Turkey, what will they do to fast-pace and much less tough New Zealand. This game is not important for them, and they have two games coming up that they have to win to get through to the next round. I expect the top players at New Zealand to rest today, and the Americans to take this very seriously. They don't want to be losing at half time two days in a row. In that case, this game cannot end with a point difference less than 50 points, and Americans with less than 120 point scored. Details

I think Baynes is well overrated here. He is a tough center, he moves well, but he also lacks technical skills, which will be very important today since he will face stronger players, who move better. Banes proved to be the key offense player in the first two games. He first scored 21 points against Slovenia, with the perfect efficiency. But Jawai was not participating in that game. Jawai was in the game for ten minutes against Korea and Baynes scored only 13 points. Korea don't have a proper center, and Baynes scored most of his points following offensive rebounds. That will not happen today since not many teams control the rebound as well as Lithuania. Australia know there will be no chance for them there, and will have to set a fast pace with forwards leading the game, definitely not center Baynes. Details

This game can only be war and nothing else with two of the possibly slowest team on the tournament playing a very important game to reach the following round. Ukraine seemingly flopped in defense, but they actually fell into a defensive trap set by the Finns who confused Ukraine's centers who didn't know how to attack their combined defense and kept losing the ball, which the Finns turned into easy points. In addition, the Finns were supported by some 8500 fans which carried them to their overall total of 81 points. That won't be the case today as we will see a huge battle of giant centers on both ends. This guarantees a slow basketball with not much running and Turkey will hardly get 75 points n that game as no one had scored that many against Ukraine in 10 games before Finland. Details

This a pretty much clear cut case of USA winning with the only issue being the end score, and I see this as a high value pick for several reasons. First is that both teams base everything on defense. Both Ataman and Krzyzewski like organized plays and strong defenses. Furthermore, if USA played against a run-and-gun Finnish team at under 170 points, I don't see how a slow Turkey will get higher than that. Turkey have no offensive solutions. They'll pass to the centers, and go with slow offense plays. The Americans are strong on transition on the other hand, but if Turkey take that away from them through offensive rebounding and smart set up defense, I don't see why they could not parry USA on defense. Turkey played at under 150 against the lightning quick New Zealand team yesterday, and I cannot imagine this will go above 160. I'm a little bothered with USA relaxing once they reach a larger lead, but this is worth a big bet even with that risk involved. Details

Slovenian selector Zdovc said it all in, clearly stating his team will have to deal with the three coming matches through defense, not a major surprise for those who followed Zdovc and his career. He always based everything on defense, and this Slovenian team is no exception. He had to adjust a bit to the speed of Goran and Zoran Dragić, which lead to Slovenia beating Australia 90-80 in the first match, a result completely atypical for Zdovc. However, he kind of announced that before the match as he spotted that Australia have poor transition to defense, which he used as much as he could. He will not rush here, and will also try to spare Goran Dragić as much as possible. Mexico have few solutions on offense. Ayon has a back to the board game, Gutierrez is solid on penetration, but as soon as Lithuania pressured them on defense, they had no idea what to do with the ball. Slovenia will do that all game long, I don't see Mexico going over 62-63 points here, and I think this is worth playing. Details

Australia completely disappointed me yesterday. I expected a certain win, but Zdovc read them like a book. However, I'm still convinced they're a great team, and we'll see that today. Korea have not played a competitive match in a month, as we could see yesterday when Angola demolished them due to that. Today they'll be up against an opponent twice as strong, and also capable of winning by a large margin. Australia have to redeem themselves, they'll be playing stronger defense, against an inferior opponent, and Exum and the guys should win this by way more than 20 points. Details

After seeing the first round matches a few things are not clear about this.
Firstly, New Zealand are hardly a favorite here. They lost something that was impossible to lose, a situation where the coach apologizes to the team is abnormal, and they'll hardly recover this quickly. On the other side we saw a tough team playing for the Dominican Republic, with some great individuals, who in no way deserve to be underestimated in this match. The second important thing is tempo, as both teams love run'n'gun basketball, have great guards, and fire off a lot of three point attempts. Almost everyone gets to 80 points against New Zealand, even the very slow Turkey should have done it yesterday, but they failed to score a single point in the last 3 minutes. I see a high scoring match happening today, in which I give the Dominicans a much better chance than the bookmakers do, so I'll play them on points over. Details

I don't like playing handicaps this big, especially not when the teams are more or less serious, like Finland today. However, too many things are on USA's side. It's stupid to count all the players and explain that the difference is like heaven from hell. I think that what's more important is that the Americans are fully motivated. They have a younger team hungry for a win, and a coach who insists on maximum defense for the whole 40 minutes. Finland will lose in rebounds by far, and will have a hard job getting easy shots in the back line, because of the USA's back's aggressiveness, so they'll lose a lot of balls because they have no real point guard. Finland lost by 30 to Australia and Lithuania in the preparation period, and USA are a level or two above them. I think this can go to 50, and I have to take this handicap, as big as it is. Details

I thought about taking this match in over, but it seems to me that the safer option is Australia's win. I don't know why the bookmakers think this is an equal match, when I think the difference is significant here. Slovenia have the advantage only in their point guard Goran Dragic. Even that advantage is questionable when on the other side, the point guards are Dellavedov and Exum, two NBA players. Everything else is on the Australians' side. Jawai and Baynes will deconstruct the miserable Slovenian front court under the hoop. On the wing positions, Ingles and Newley can hardly be stopped, and I say again, I don't see Slovenia having an advantage, except for their point guard. If they play slow, they'll lose the transition with Dragic. If they rush and run, Australia will crush them because they love that rhythm. Slovenia don't really stand a chance here, in my opinion. Actually, not many do stand a chance against the Australians, so I really don't know why nobody trusts them. Details

Even though New Zealand wreaked havoc in the preparations by beating Serbia and playing tight games against Lithuania and Slovenia, I still don't trust them. They're a team without a real center with Kirk Penney as the main man, a player plying his trade in mediocre Turkish clubs like Tranbzonspor or TED Kolejliler. As weak as the Turks are, their reserve players come from Galatasaray or Fenerbahce. So much for quality. In terms of performance, the Turks like to focus on defense and low-scoring games but they still know how to get into a counter. On the other hand, New Zealand have no options but going for a run'n'gun game. That's why I expect a high-scoring game in which the Turks can keep up the pace and score against organized defenses through their centers. In any case, I believe Turkey will go over 80 here and I will take this margin. Details

It's known that African national teams have big problems with the offense. Their physical potential is huge, but there's no tactic or technique in their game, and Angola is no exception. The African champion also come here without their best player and first scorer Morais, which will add to the problems in the offense. On the other hand, Korea come with a generation atypical for the Asian vision of basketball. There are lots of two-meter tall players here, they don't play run and gun basketball, and their coach clearly stated their focus is on the defense. That's how they played the preparation period where they had 70 points against the super-fast New Zealand, and that is a great announcement for today. Angola's offense isn't nearly as strong, they don't have their first scorer, and like Korea, they have to rely on defense. I don't see this match going over 70 points on Angola's account. Details

The logic of this bet is pretty clear. Ukraine play a very slow basketball which is no wonder considering their squad with lots of tall, strong players. During the preparations, they went over this margin only twice - by 1 point against Canada and against the ridiculous Philippine squad. Today's game is something else, the first competitive game and Ukraine are in for a tough task. Dominican Republic are not a world superpower but the team is very strong and athletic with several extraordinary individuals like NBA player Garcia. Even though their coach has emphasized they will have to keep things faster, that will not be possible against the slow Ukrainians. But what's important is that the Dominicans have done a good scouting of Ukraine. They know that stopping Jeter will be their main task and if they do that, Ukraine won't go over 70 points here. Details

Even though Serbia have had a great tournament so far and Lithuania have barely reached the quarterfinals, I believe we are facing a very tight match. Lithuania will use Sabonis to dominate the paint as Serbia's only real center has an injury problem and that will give Lithuania many open shots, which is the best part of their game. If Lithuania have a good shooting performance, I wouldn't be too surprised to see them get a good result. Details

Even though these two teams have played a tight game (62-60) during the preparations, I don't see this one as a close game. Italy's only strength is their PG Mussini, while the Greeks are firing from all cylinders. From their point guard Stamatis, who will cause a lot of problems fro Mussini, to Charalampopoulos, who is dominating the shooting positions. The key to this game lies in the paint where the Greeks are the better team and I believe that will decide this game. Italy's great games aside, I don't see them being close to Greece. Details

Even though the English have the most optimistic coach on the bench, that won't be of great help. Montenegro were very unlucky to end up here instead of the quarterfinals where they belong, realistically speaking. On the other hand, the English just can't get their first win and that's no wonder considering their attacking impotence. Regardless of the Montenegrin shock, this should be a one-way street as these teams are nowhere close in terms of quality. Details

We were convinced of Croatia's handicap win and it happened after a great run in the final period. The Poles managed to keep themselves in the game but it was just a matter of time before Croatia got a major lead. The situation should be even easier today as Latvia are nowhere near Croatia in terms of rebounds and Croatia's domination should be even more emphasized in these conditions. Latvia's squad is very thin in terms and Croatia's forwards should make a difference, Božić and Mazalin most prominently. An additional problem for Latvia is that their best player Lomasz is doubtful and their attack is sterile without him. The physical advantage is huge and unless they get an crazy attacking run, Croatia should win this by 20 points. Details

The logic behind this is very simple. Croatia have a generation the quality of which has not been seen in years, and the result is rarely seen domination. +41 against England, +33 against Lithuania, and +17 against France, with the last two of those teams being very respectable and major favorites to win against Poland. The Polish team played a close game against Belgium, and lost to Latvia and Italy, teams Croatia beat with half an effort. Leaving all that aside, two things are the key to this match. Firstly, the rebounding strength that helped Poland against all their opponents so far but could only go so far, will be taken away from them today. Against this Croatian lineup they will be powerless in the pain, as Arapović, Bender and Žižić will dominate and take away the only strong suit Poland have. The other important segment is the extremely aggressive defense Croatia are playing, with full court pressing for a big part of the match which usually results in a lot of turnovers for their opponents. Poland are the weakest in the guard department, where they're missing their first point guard and shooting guard, and are leading the tournament in turnovers due to that. Croatia will destroy them with heaps of steals, which will in turn give them numerous counterattacks that should cover this handicap by halftime, and only build up their lead later, in my opinion even up to +30 points. Details

A basketball match between Lithuania and Latvia is always a close game with heightened tension. In my opinion, here we might see a much closer match than the odds suggest, as these two teams are very familiar with each other, having already faced each other three times in the preparation period. In one of those matches played in Kaunas Latvia even managed to beat Lithuania in an away match, while this game is played on neutral ground. Latvia have a great tall lineup that can parry Sabonis, which is already half the work done against Lithuania. Latvian selector Vecvargas already stated that his team can parry anyone if they keep their focus and I think they have a good chance here, if not to win, then definitely for a close match. Details

I still don't understand how the odds on Croatia on this tournament are set. Just like yesterday, the odds are dropping, but as long as they are over 1.25, they're very much worth the money. Lithuania had to score 10 three-pointers in one half to keep up with their opponents and everything afterwards was a demonstration of power. France are very weak here, this generation is nowhere near the best ones France have had and in addition, one of their best players Wallez, has gotten injured. Croatia will control the rebounds, dominate the paint and outrun the Frenchmen, which means this could very much turn into a +20 win for them. That's the way I see things here and I have to take these odds. Details