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I don't understand how these two teams can be set as a 50-50 match. Croatia are the top favorites here, while Lithuania are a one-man-show with Sabonis's dominance and no one else to help him. He will be in trouble today as he will face the best line-up of tall players and the rotation of Žižić, Arapović, Bender and Jukić should have no problem closing him down. Lithuania have no other options and I think Croatia are solid favorites here. In any case, much bigger favorites than the odds suggest. Details

I think the odds here are set wrong and only due to results of these two teams from two years ago, and not due to quality of these teams. France won the silver medal on that tournament while Lithuania ended as the eleventh-placed team. However, Lithuania won the head-to-head then and the reason is simple - Domantas Sabonis. The Lithuanian tower is so powerful in the block and rebounds that he closes down the paint and we know France don't win games with perimeter shots. That's what I expect today and I think Lithuania will do much better than two years ago. This is at least a 50-50 game, and I would personally put Lithuania as the favorites. Details

It seems unusual to bet on Luxembourg basketball team in any other situation, but I think it makes sense today. Luxembourg have a really interesting team in this generation. Great wing Grun, a quality center Wolff, versatile point guard Melcher, and the biggest star Hoeser who still didn't catch the real rhythm, make Luxembourg a decent B Division team. More would be expected from Romania, but they didn't show it. Except for the win against Estonia, who they outplayed in rebound and used their weaknesses, Romania play badly here. Portugal and BiH crushed them, revealed all their weaknesses, most of all in the offense, because Romania have huge 25 turnovers per match here, their backcourt can't score anything and their only real player is the wing center Cobzaru. Wolff can stop him, Luxembourg can pair them in the rebound, and then this becomes a completely evened out match, where I'd even give advantage to Luxembourg. Details

No doubt that Olympiacos are a huge favorite here, but this margin on their number of points is overestimated, in my opinion. There are a few reasons for that. This match is completely irrelevant to Olympiacos. We already pointed out that they're second in the championship, and their full focus is on the Euroleague where there's fire underneath their feet, and everyone only thinks about the next match against Unicaja. The second main issue is their injuries issues. Perperoglou and Printezis are still out, and they're really important in the offense, Petway is bothered with a minor injury, and Spanoulis is expected to get some rest as he's only coming back from a long break and it's a lot more important that he's ready for Unicaja. Those are four best offensive players in Olympiacos, and without them, it'll be a lot harder to attack the very good guest defense. Olympiacos went over this margin at home only four times in the last 15 matches, and I really don't see how they can do that today with all the problems and thoughts being focused on Unicaja. Details

This logic is simple. Panathinaikos are an uncomparably better team and will easily win, and we're playing over because Ikaros are one of the fastest teams in Greece, and their coach Giaples is known for rarely backing down on his philosophy where most of the game is based on the offense. It won't bring them a lot of points against Panathinaikos, but in a fast match, it will bring a lot of chances for Panathinaikos who showed they can play a faster match since Wright came as the point guard and Alvertis on the bench, without having to keep the opponent at 50 points like when Pedoulakis was the coach. I see a fast match here, with no result uncertainties, and Panathinaikos can easily go to 90 points here. Details

Kifisia have the best defense of the league. In 10 away matches this season, they conceded over 72 points only once, in a run and gun match against Ikaros. They left Panathinaikos at 72, and Olympiacos at only 69 points, which clearly shows how important their defense is. Today, they're playing a match crucial for the fourth place, and their coach said that they have to win with their defense again. Considering they're playing against PAOK who play equally organized, position basketball, there definitely won't be any running here, especially because of the home team's injury issues. Two best forwards Payne and Cooper are especially questionable, especially Cooper who has a major left leg injury. The American point guard is PAOK's engine, and each and every action starts with him. Without him, they're powerless offensively, and that will show today. If it were me, I'd set the margin 7-8 points lower, so I think this is a complete miss. Details

This match is extremely important for several reasons, from the arrival of Obradović to the direct clash for the quarterfinal. Although Panathinaikos are supposedly the favorites, I don't see them as such. Their only advantage in my opinion is the full OAKA arena, but in this situation (Obradović) that atmosphere might be a double edged sword and put pressure on the home team. Panathinaikos are lagging behind in quality and will have huge problems on offense, as Fener can play extremely aggressive defense, while PAO don't have the paint game to weaken that pressure. It will all boil down to endless pick-and-rolls, mainly via Diamantidis, and if there is anyone who knows how to stop that, its Željko Obradović. On the other hand, Panathinaikos' defense have already shown, in the Istanbul match, that they cannot parry Fener, who attack from all five positions. The key position today will be that of the power forward, where once again we won't see Gist, and Fener have Bjelica and Kleiza who are great on offense, and will tilt the scale in favor of the away team in my opinion. In closing, the quality of the players, the coach, the return of Obradović, injury of Gist and even their current form, all those favor the away team, and Fener is way ahead at these odds. A counterhandicap would be a safer option, of course, though I'm positive there is no need for that. Details

The first thing that comes to mind in games between Panathinaikos and Ilysiakos is an under. The teams that play great defense and slow, controlled basketball have become a synonym for this bet. However, we will try something different today - an over. There are several reasons for that. This game has a more of an exhibition match feel to it. Both teams have their mind set on their upcoming opponent, as they know there is only 1 possible outcome here. This will mean a more relaxed appraoch in defense as there is no point wearing yourself out in a game that bears no importance. The second important things are the playmakers for both teams. Panathinaikos have brought Zac Wright in the second part of the season and he gives them speed and the possibility of counter-attacks, which PAO have not had so far. On the other hand, the introduction of Pigram (18 points per game) into Ilysiakos has brought this typical under team to an average of 157 points per game in last 5 matches since the American arrived. He gives them speed and numerous solutions in the attack. I believe the margin was based on the first part of the season in which both teams played much slower. Even in such circumstances, the last three games of these teams went over this margin. In a meaningless game like this and with two super-fast point guards, I see no reason why this shouldn't go over 150 points. Details

The games between these two clubs usually end in a win for Olympiacos by some 30 points but the situation is much different today. Aris had two weeks to prepare for this game, all injured players have recovered and are ready, while the situation is completely opposite for the away team. Olympiacos are here without Katsivelis, Begić, Shermadini and Printezis, which means they are playing without their first five players. As wide as their roster may be, this kind of deficit is hard to make up for. Apart from that, Oly are at the brink of dropping out of Euroleague and that competition as at the center of their attention, while their second place in Greece is almost 99% secured and things there almost certainly won't change even if they lose all the remaining games. Oly have a home game against Laboral Kutxa on Friday which is much more important than this game today. Considering the numerous absences, it is clear that Oly will not be able to withstand the maximum tempo throughout the entire 40 minutes and one can expect younger players like Agravanis, Pappetrou and Christodolou to get some playing time. We saw something similar at Oly's last away game at Apollon, which they won by 9 points. Aris have a very good team capable of matching Oly in terms of rebounds, which is very important, and they also have a great defense, which Oly without Spanoulis and Printezis will have a hard time dealing with. In a game like this, this handicap is worth taking even more. Details

I think this handicap is set as if the situation in Olympiacos were ideal, but they are coming here with many problems. Spanoulis is injured and that is the biggest problem, but they are also missing important players - Petway, Moon (who is supposed to be his sub), Begić (that left the club) and his replacement Shermadini (not eligible for the game). Even their back-up point-guard Katsivelis is out and this is a huge problem for Olympiacos. OK, Oly are still powerful enough and are certainly the favorites but not so much that they could cover this handicap, which certainly has a value. Apollon play good basketball at home and they lost against Olympiacos and Panathinaikos by less than 10 points last season. They are currently in great form, the arrival of Ross and the recovery of Deniel and Wilson have rejuvenated the team and I believe they can expect a solid game against the injury-crippled Olympiacos. Oly are coming here in between two Euroleague games that are clearly their priority at the moment and I'm sure they will not go for a massive point difference with their weakened team nor will they force their main players throughout the entire 40 minutes. A more realistic prospect is watching young Papapetrou, Christodoulou or Agravanis get more playing time and then Apollon have a good chance of keeping things tight here. Details

This margin makes absolutely no sense to me. Kolossos went over it only twice in nine home games, and only once in the 11 away games. Interestingly, that happened precisely in the game against Dramas. However, we should set the record straight about one thing right away. The only reason Kolossos scored 79 points in that game are the 29 point they scored in the last quarter, great shooting efficiency and the fact they managed to take advantage of staggering 20 turnovers Dramas recorded. Dramas have improved greatly since that game, they beat Olympiakos (Olympiakos scored 69 points), played overtime with Panathinaikos (Panathinaikos scored 72 points), which is why I think they're greatly overrated here. Kolossos are playing an incredibly slow pace game home. Rarely does it happen that more than 130 points are scored and similar will happen today. Dramas proved on numerous occasions that they can play high-quality defense and even managed to prevent Olympiakos and Panathinaikos from scoring more than 72 points. I really don't see how Kolossos can scored more than 70 in a slow pace game such as this one. I will do pretty high stakes here because the margin is off by at least 6-7 points. Details

The handicap is set up high, but that's not the reason not to play this one. Canarias lost a lot in the paint when Sekulic left, and now, the veteran Fajardo and Gutierrez are playing that position, but they can't match serious teams in the jump. You could see it in the last round against Barcelona who crushed them there, and Real are equally powerful in the jump at least somewhat. It means that even those shoots that players like Rudy, Sergio Rodriguez, Llull miss, will end in the hands of Bourouis, Reyes or Mirotic. Canaris will try to match them by playing fast, but it can only work in Real's favor because that's the kind of basketball they love. Zalgiris and Zaragoza who came here to play fast were left with -36 and -32. Canarias were recently defeated by Barcelona in the cup, with 42 points difference, and that's how I see this match ending, too. Details

Opting for overs at this margin is not always the easiest thing, but there are simply too many things convincing me to do precisely that today. These two teams love fast pace basketball, and as their coaches' statement suggest, they're not giving up on that even if it means the results will suffer. Valladolid are virtually already out of the league, they will be relegated and feel no pressure what so ever, which is quite clear from their last few games. They conceded well over 100 points in three out of the last 6 games. That only goes to show how oriented on defense they are. Joventut are a team very similar to them. They lost the last two away games, having conceded almost 90 points in both. They're are a team who's two and three-pointer record is often the same and I think we could be in for a relaxing game today, in which offenses will play the main role, since defenses are not at a particularly high level. Details

Barcelona hosted Unicaja twice this season, and Unicaja surprisingly one once, and were evened out in the second one even though they played without Fran Vazquez who is very important in coach Plaza's team. Obviously the tough defense and fast transitions Unicaja use are not good for Barcelona who prefer set game and have a hard time controlling Unicaja's fast players on almost all the positions, especially under the hoop. Vazquez is back for Unicaja today, and that means defense being even tighter, and when he pairs up with Stimac, he can match Tomic and Dorsey in the jump very well. If Unicaja manage to set balance there, they'll do a big part of the job, and they can easily surprise us again. They already defeated teams like Panathinaikos and Fenerbahce at home, and they showed Barcelona how much of an uncomfortable opponent they can be in away matches. Today, they have very good chances in front of their own fans, and I believe they can easily cover this handicap. Details

Bruesa are on a negative streak, but truth be told, the draw was extremely unfavorable in the last six games. But they're not panicking and coach Alonso believes his team will start winning as of today. The only way for them to win is top-quality defense. Even on this losing run no one was able to score more than 80 points against them, not even top teams such as Real (scored 76). Valencia, who are offense vise at a very similar level to Bruesa, scored only 57. Bruesa are playing a team who are fighting to stay in the league today, and who are an ideal opponent to end the negative streak with. Manresa were well below this margin again any team with better defense, and we should point out that Bruesa have the second best defense in the league (Real are the best). The pressure on both teams is huge and I believe that Bruesa will do their thing and prevent Manresa from winning more than 60 or so points. Details

In my opinion, this game can go only in one direction and that is the handicap for the home team. Rethymno have been in good form lately and have beaten Kolossos by 19 and Apollon by 20 in last two games. This is important as these two teams are way ahead of Panelefsiniakos in terms of quality, which gives these wins even more importance. Panelefsiniakos have been defeated in last six out of seven games and this handicap went through in all six. The second important fact is that Panelefsiniakos have lost 7 consecutive away games and only have a single away win in last year. Rethymno are also much stronger at home than away but they still crushed Panelefsiniakos by 15 points in the away game in November. Today, when they are in an even better for and at home, where they do much better, and are facing a team that can't seem to lose away games by under 10 points, I see a completely convincing win for Rethymno and I will gladly take this handicap. Details

Even though Ikaros are a team who play fast, and we often followed them in over, today, we have to play the opposite. Their opponent won't allow them to run around because Kifisia don't allow anyone to do that. They play the slowest basketball in Greece and nobody scored over 72 points against them in their arena in the regular time, only Panathinaikos scored that much. Playing like that, they celebrated in nine out of the last 11 matches, and they only lost to Panathinaikos and Olympiacos. I believe they'll easily impose their rhythm today, just like they did in the first match of the season, against Ikaros, when they celebrated 75-66. Kifisia are even tougher in away matches, and their games end with an even lower number of points. If the home team can't shoot well, I don't see this match going over 60 points on each side, and I have to take this under. Details

The guests have already written off this game and they are resting their most experience player Kalambokis. Without him, Rethymno are in the hands of Americans who make them the fastest team in the league, and this will be even more emphasized today. Olympiacos can keep up with that rhythm and they scored 103 points in the first away game at Rethymno. Even though they had a tough game against Panathinaikos on Thursday, I don't think fatigue should be the issue as Oly have 12 quality players and will use players like the former NBA man Moon who only plays in their league games, Collins and Begić who only played for 4 minutes on Thursday, while Petway and Perperoglou will be out of the squad. Oly will be completely ready and should be able to fill the opposition's net with their run n gun game. I wouldn't be surprised if Oly go over 100 and I simply have to take this margin. Details

Panathinaikos had lots of problems last year on this away match. There's a simple reason, Panionios are third best team in Greece, and they play their best basketball at home. This applies more to the defense that left Panathinaikos at 64 last year, that is, 56 scored points. I expect something similar today for a couple of reasons. Panathinaikos played a derby against Olympiacos on Thursday, and they were mentally and physically drained. Ukic said a few times that he has a hard time training after matches like those, let alone play, and Pedoulakis could spare him. Diamantidis and Fotsis played over 30 minutes in that match, both are 34 years old, so they should get some rest. Then, there's the striker Curry's injury, but he's not that important for the "green" offense. Today, Zach Wright's debut is expected, but he can't bring too much for the offense anyway, especially since he didn't fit in yet. His debut pushed out Batiste from the roster for the national championship, and that's an additional minus for the guests. This is a match that means a lot more to the home team, who live for slow basketball and tough defenses, and guests' problems and fatigue make me take this bet. Details

I definitely can't agree with the fact that the bookmakers have put Panathinaikos as the favorites here. This is at least a 50-50 game, while I think Olympiacos have a slight advantage here. Everyone is probably looking at last few head-to-heads in which Panathinaikos usually won, plus they have the home court advantage. However, I see things differently here. Panathinaikos should be under a lot of pressure as they have a bad run in the Euroleague and the defeat could come very costly, plus, a home defeat against Olympiacos would be a tragedy. Olympiacos are in the best form of their season, they've beaten their opponents in last 3 Euroleague games by 18 points or more, their defense is great, and they are not under any kind f pressure here. It is a well-known fact that Olympiacos have been brilliant under pressure in all important games in last two years, and they are especially good when they are regarded as the outsiders. Coach Bartzokas learned his lesson from the two defeats against Panathinaikos this season and he knows what he has to insist on. Olympiacos have more firepower than the hosts, who are expected to play a one-dimensional game and base everything on defense. Gist is expected to play but it's hard to expect him in top form after a two-week break, and he was the crucial player in Panathinaikos's recent derby wins. If Oly dominate the rebound today, which they should be able to do, then Panathinaikos wil have many problems and I don't see how they could beat their opponents only through defense, opponents who are in much better form and should be regarded as the favorites here. Details