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In this tournament, one thing is very distinctive in Spaniards’ game. When they win, they do it with a big point difference, so their victory with a smallest point difference in this tournament was against the Czech Republic in which they celebrated with a +21. Every game which was a play of equals ended with a defeat for Spain. One of the reasons is the fatigue of Marco Gasol, on whom they are too dependent and therefore the Spaniards need to play furiously from the start because they themselves are aware that they must make a big point difference early on not to lose another game. The Spaniards’ quality is far better, especially in key positions, point guard and center. Rubio and Sergio Rodriguez have completely outplayed Ukic in the first game of the two teams, and we can expect the same today. Gasol is physically dominant under the basket and thus Croatia lose their greatest weapon - rebound. Spain’s defense is impenetrable for Croatia, who cannot attack in any way, except with a play by Bogdanovic with his back to the basket for which Spain will surely be ready today. Croats are emotionally drained after the euphoria helped them reach the semi-finals and their fuel is gone. With injuries and accumulated fatigue, a new disaster is waiting to happen today and Spain will certainly not let this opportunity slip away, because it has already happened in this tournament: they were leading by 15 points in the last quarter and eventually lost the game. They will play a concentrated game during all 40 minutes because the stakes are high, and in such a game Croats do not stand a chance. Spaniards have beaten all opponents with 20 or more points and we can expect the same today. Details

With Markota's injury Saric is the only one left from the Croatian "four". He might might play longer because of that, although he already played 20 minutes per game. Saric is not tired since he is the youngest player in the team and is used to playing 40 minutes per game.
Today's match should suit him since the Spanish are weak on his position but perhaps the crucial thing is that the Spanish have Marc Gasol who Tomic can't attack but will instead focus on assists which Saric can take advantage of.
This margin is low and results in just three successful shoots. In a match in which hell get more time on the ground and with an opponent that suits him, Saric is in an obvious over. Details

After Mavrokefalidis's injury, Bouroussis remains the only real center the Greeks have, as Kavvadas is not yet quite fit to play more than a couple of minutes. As a result, Bouroussis played a lot more in the last two games and the same is expected for today. A further big reason to take this bet is the Croatian defense that is expected to be extremely aggressive against the shooting line, but has problems defending against tall players in the paint. The accent should be on stopping Spanoulis. He will probably be facing fierce defending, but he excels at pick and rolls, something Bouroussis should appreciate. Furthermore, Greek center's back to basket play should prove too much for Tomic and, especially, Zoric to deal with, so Bouroussis might get his points there. Also, he has a good shot, so he could net a couple of three-pointers, too. All too many reasons to take such a low margin on a player that might prove crucial today. Details

According to Croatian captain, they won't calculate in today's game and will look to win the group with aplomb. However, it remains to be shown on the court, but - according to his own words - Ukic is playing better with every game. Although his shot percentage has been terrible so far, Ukic went over this margin in four of the last five matches. He took 13 shots in three out of those four matches, as he is expected to today. Ukic should be taking three-pointers, floaters, he should go on runs in the paint and overall a lot of individual initiative as he is playing against "his" Greece, a team he knows very well from spending the last season at Panathinaikos. His best games in the last season came against Olympiakos in the finals of the Championship and Cup, where he won the MVP award. In all of those four matches he was the top shooter and scored double-digits. Ukic said on more than one occasion he gets a rush from such games, so he plays well in them. The stakes are high today, winning the group - and the team captain is the person to perform in such situations. I expect him to have at least 10 or so shots from the open play, which should, alongside a couple of free throws and an average shot percentage, take him well over this margin. This margin is at least 2 or 3 points too low as it is based on his tournament average, without regards to the background of the match. Details