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In ideal conditions this handicap would be realistic. But today we're far from that. Betis got beaten up really bad in away games, with all players available (Canarias -22, Barcelona -22, Gran Canaria -20). Their shape is such that they were defeated at home by Murcia with -26 in the last round. Last week they lost two players because Zoric left the club, and Cherry go injured. Without their first play and first center a lot better clubs would be in trouble, and Betis played with seven players in the rotation, and that will be felt. Valencia doesn't even feel the injury of their center Dubljevic because Kravtsov is fantastic, and Thomas and Sikma guarantee rebound domination. At home Valencia lost to Real and Hapoel which is unimportant for this story since they're top teams, and the same goes for Baskonia whom they've beaten with eight points of difference. A lot more important are matches against Ulm (+37), Andorra (+26) and Olimpia (+13) because those are teams closer to today's Betis, even though they're still a lot better than them. Valencia have 12 players and they can keep the same intensity throughout the 40 minutes at home, and they're tight in the defense from where they pull the transition and "build up" the difference. Betis wouldn't do well here even if they were complete, and they can only come here today to lose once more with +20 points of difference. Details

This handicap has become reality for Fuenlabrada in away games, regardless of their opponents. After they lost by 46 and 51 at Canarias and Gran Canaria, it was obvious that there is something wrong with this team. The coach said that he does not know what happens to them in away games, Paunic added that they look horrible in away games and that is no coincidence. They lost to Lietuvos by 17 thanks to the home team's relaxing, by 12 against Estudiantes and their best performance was against Alba at the start of the Eurocup which they lost by 7. They cannot count on their best player, Popovic, today, which means new problems, because he is their MVP and he scored 22 points in the first game in which they defeated Khimki. Since then, Khimki acquired Evans, Brown, Hummel and Shved. This is almost an NBA lineup so it is obvious how much stronger Khimki are today. Since then they defeated Kuban by 7, Alba by 30, Unics by 17, Bilbao by 19, Enisey by 8, Nizhny by 7, and their only slip up was at Lietuvos where they lost by 2. At some neutral court, and with Popovic in Fuenlabrada's lineup, I would see this as a realistic handicap, but in this balance of power, with Fuenlabrada who have to focus on the national championship where their record is 2-7, I think this is a one-way street in which the difference will keep growing, because while Khimki have NBA players on the bench, Fuenlabrada have inexperienced players with limited quality (Rupnik, Smits, Hakansson, Diagne) who completely sink in away games and we have seen them fall apart this season after the opponents would get a significant lead, which is why I think this handicap makes sense. Details

Barcelona are coming here after one of the biggest embarrassments in the club history - that's the only way to describe being down by 39 against Real at home. Bartzokas complained on everything... and that all stands today, too. Barcelona aren't any more rested 48 hours after, and nobody recovered in the meantime, and they're hosting a tricky opponent who was getting ready for this all week.
Estudiantes have plenty of experienced players, some of which played in Barcelona (the best scorer Jackson), some have a lot of experience playing the ACB league (Cook, Savane) and definitely won't be scared of this duel. They are coming to win, not lose by 17. Barcelona passed this handicap only once in 17 games played this season. They lost it in the last nine home games. They only beat Betis ten games ago, when Claver and Ribas were playing. The two of them are out today which is going to make things harder, Barcelona will have to use the shortened rotation, and the young Peno and Eriksson will get their chance, and that means worse efficiency for Barcelona. Estudiantes covered this handicap in all seven matches this season, even when they played against Real (88-96 at home). A team this experienced, with ten players in the rotation and are serious - they're definitely not coming to get kicked. Even if Barcelona had all their players, if they were completely rested, and if they didn't get that embarrassed 48 hours ago, I'd still take this handicap because it's at least 4-5 points too high. So, with all the mitigating circumstances for the hosts, I definitely don't think this can pass. Details

Granca are again in fierce form they had during the Summer when they haven't lost a single pre-season game and when they defeated Barca by 20 in the Supercup final. In the last 6 games they defeated Cedevita by 25, Nizhny by 26, Fuenlabrada by 51, Murcia by 19 and Lietkabelis by 19. They also lost at Unicaja, but that was anything but a slip up or a surprise. These five above mentioned teams that Granca demolished are much better than Betis. And Granca's playing style does not suit Betis, because Tabak has short bench and only four guards that he uses. They will struggle today to resist the pressure created by Granca, and soft centers Zoric, Nachbar, Milosevic and Triguero will have the same problems against Hendrix. Planinic and the rest of the team that dominate the rebounds. Sevilla have lost by 22 points in the last two away games at Canarias and Barcelona, and I am under the impression that Granca are currently stronger than those two teams. Of course that nothing is mathematical in sports, but the difference in quality, form, bench width and motivation is Details

Betis disappoined their coach Tabak so far, and firstly due to their defense. It's known that Tabak prefers a strong defense and the least amount of points allowed, and his team have so far in five matches allowed 80 or more points. That's the reason why Tabak spoke so much about defense before this match, and they surely worked on that. Today their defense could be especially important because both plays Radicevic and Cherry are questionable today, so they could have problems in the offense. They even had problems with them in the last round when Barca allowed them only 58 points. Obradorio aren't as strong as Barca, but they're equally defensively oriented and are very disciplined. Fernandez doesn't allow hasty offenses, and that's why Obradorio play on a low number of points. This season they went over 160 twice, but those were defeats by the objectivelly a lot stronger Valencia and Baskonia. Against team of their rank they imposed their tempo (Manresa 138 points, Estudiantes 137, Canarias 125). Since they're still missing the injured Corbacho and Urtasun, their offense is still in trouble, so I believe they will use the same recipe against Betis: try to slow down the match, and that's going to be even easier if the hosts don't have their playmakers available. Last season these teams were at 135 and 141 points, and Betis were a faster team at the time then they are today, and I simply don't see this match over 150 points. Details

This margin is a result of the first round where both Canarias and Obradoiro played at 170 points. But, their opponents were fast teams Gran Canaria and Baskonia, that's why the games were so efficient. Today, I don't expect such a scenario because both teams are struggling with their best players/scorers' injuries (Richotti/Urtasun and Corbacho), which will dull their offenses quite a bit. On the other hand, the guest coach Fernandez clearly said he's going for the better defense, something he always insists on. The home team's coach Vidorreta isn't a type of coach who prefers running, something Canarias used to do. Vidorreta likes positional basketball, and with Bogris and Vazquz in the paint, he can do that. Obradoiro also have heavy fives, and no players to play fast. I expect a big fight for the points here, and not running like it was in the first round where neither of the teams felt pressured, so this margin is about 6-7 points too high in my opinion. Details

Today Barcelona are without the complete help of their back line. There's no Koponen, Rice,, Navarro and Ribas. Of course that that affects the game creation, and without the aforementioned players it's going to be very hard to attak Manersa who, under Navarro's lead, are very good in the defense, especially at home. A few days ago there was a match in the same line-up in which Barca won with 77-63, but coach Navarro clearly said that his team didn't have the strength because 24 hours ago they beat Andorra and they wasted themselves there. Today they will physically be a lot better, ready to play the real defense, and they will have the help of the home fans. Last season they lost here to Barca with 60-75, so again they stopped Barca in the defense who had the whole team available. In the pre-season they stopped their opponents under this margin in four out of six matches, while Barca went over it with Real, Maccabi and Betis, but at the time the game was led by torpedo Rice. He's out today and they will play positional basketball in which Barca could have a lot of problems. Details

B&H lost to Russia 10 days ago by 29, and I think that this game will be at least even. Bosnia could not count on Teletovic back then, and he is an NBA player who is 50% of the team, he was bad against Sweden and he will be motivated today. Also, B&H are playing at home, in Tuzla, they will be at their maximum. I am convinced that Bosnia will dominate this game, they have a physically powerful lineup, they are the best team in rebounds, I am convinced they will have the game under control. I am personally convinced they will win, but I will bet on a safer option, the away team under. Details

We went with an under at Austria in the first round, which was successful even though they had a 64-percent two-point shooting and 50 percent three-point shooting. It happened again that the base of their game is Schreiner and Mahalbasic. Both prefer a slower pace and that's good basis for us to go with Austria's under once again. Mahalbasic has the Pliess-Voigtmann duo that will give him a hard time and the Austrians will struggle to get easy points. Germany, like all Fleming's teams, play a very aggressive game, which they confirmed against Denmark in the first round. They recorded an over because the Danes played fast and the game was settled early on. They are now to face a very motivated home team who have not beaten Germany in 39 years and who will be very aggressive home. Their last year's head-to-head match finished at 116 points. I now expect a similar fight because defenses are the base for both teams. There is no rushing and the stake is high and the rivalry here is big. Details

With the coach Van Helfteren, Netherlands are always a good pick for under. They base their game on the defense, and have no options in the offense, especially with Norel gone from the paint. Netherlands stayed under on this margin in 7-of-10 games in the pre-season, and they went over it against the fast Russia and Hungary, and in an unusual match against Great Britain where there rotated a lot and the result varied vastly. That's normal for friendly matches. This today, though, is a competitive match where Netherlands have to rely on their defense, and against an opponent they like. Austria don't like to rush things, either, and their team is similar to the Dutch. The only difference is the center Mahalbašić who only gives weight to this bet. Austria play with him a lot, and that slows their game down. Schreiner is an experienced point guard who doesn't like rushing, either. Austria played towards a bigger number of points in the pre-season, but they had fast opponents, like Slovenia or slovakia, so that's not that relevant. They'll face a tough and slow opponent today, who can stop Mahalbašić, and all of that combined means this game will stay under the margin. Details

The only quarter-final game in which there is no result suspense. USA are a sure semi-finalists and the only question left is about the final result. I am convinced that it will be well over this margin for several reasons. Firstly, this Argentina's veteran team is dropping, they were exhausted by the game against Brazil in which they played for 50 minutes, and then they lost to Spain by 20 points and it was evident they were drained. That was expected because the players over 40 years of age will get more tired as the tournament progresses. If this game had been played at the start of the tournament, Argentina still wouldn't be able to compete against them because they are not physical enough. Serbia, France and Australia parried them because they have strong centers, Argentina do not have a center, they will lose the rebounds here, and they have no one to guard USA's backcourt line. Preparation game they played finished with USA winning by 37 points, and that was a game for the fans. USA will be much more aggressive today because they were warned in the group, and today the real part of the tournament is starting for the USA. They are playing with 100% here, just like in the play-off, and it doesn't really matter which players are on the court. Argentina have duo Ginobili-Scola who can parry them, and as soon as they stop, and believe that the Americans will put pressure on them, Argentina will start sinking. I expect USA to demolish them from start to finish and this will be an inglorious farewell for the Argentina's golden generation. Details

The game with Argentina is tailored for Kruno Simon. Croatia are meeting opponents who don't have physically powerful players and who have 'artists' Delfino and Ginobili at his positions. The situation is great for Simon's points over. In the recent test game, Argentina got away with a dirty defense which pushed the Croatian back court 10 meters from the rim. And in spite of that, Simon hit 10 points and just 22 minutes and without a single free throw. In the last official game from the WC, Kruno hit 18 points against Argentina and that is the number I expect from him today. Two days ago, he went 3-for-10 with the Spaniards and still finished with 10 points. The matchup is more favorable for him today and he will definitely get more time on the floor. I believe he can be the key player on Croatia's offensive end, especially since Garino and Nocioni will mostly pay attention to Bogdanovic. Details