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The margin is already slowly dropping, but I still see a lot of value in this. It is hard to score 178 points in European basketball even when the fastest European teams are playing. While Real can be put in that category, Murcia, regardless of Campazzo, can not. Katsikaris is Greek and he likes organized basketball and strong defense. Even though the last two games between these two teams went over 200 points, we should consider several things. Firstly, the championship game went into overtime, and in it they scored almost 20 points, while in the first one in the play-off almost everything that was shot towards the basket got in. Real were relaxed because they believed that Murcia cannot jeopardize them, and Murcia were not under pressure for the same reason. They are under pressure today because they will have a sold-out arena on their side and they want to make a miracle. They cannot do that, od course, if they concede over 100 points so I am sure we will be watching stronger defense and slower basketball today from Murcia who rarely went over 160 at home, let alone more than that. The toughest games were against the strongest teams (Unicaja 118, Laboral 134, Barcelona 156, Valencia 142). The same has to happen today because Katsikaris has seen that they have a chance and they will try to take it with defense. Real will not rush today like they usually do at home in exhibition games and I see this well under this margin. Details

If this game had been played a month or two ago, I would agree with the odds and favoring Valencia. The situation is much different today. Firstly, Valencia have dropped in form, they are struggling with injuries, Sikma and Van Rossom, starting players, are out, Dubljevic and Hamilton have minor injuries so that's not good either, and Peterson whom they acquired, is still adjusting. A few weeks ago, these two teams played a game like the one I expect today. Tough defense, great fight, and all of that suit Unicaja who easily won back then. The team from Malaga won 10 of the last 12 games, all of their players have recovered, so they again have Markovic and Smith in the starting five, with them they get defense and organization, Nedovic has revitalized, Kuzminkas as good as always, and Cooley fit in great in the paint. Unicaja have the strength and quality with which they can threaten Valencia in this game. The last reason is the most important one, Valencia lost all important games this season (Eurocup, Cup of the King, finish of the regular season). That cannot be a coincidence and Pedro Martinez' team will feel that pressure today. Even though I see Unicaja as the winners today, and as the winners of the series, I will decide on the safer option with the handicap which, in my opinion, is worth high stake. Details

I don't like betting on teams which need wins because that is the worst argument for a bet but both teams need this win so I can cross that out as a reason. I don't see how Murcia can be the favorites away today. Estudiantes became a much tougher team since the new coach took over and Pumprle and Simpson joined the team. They have 4 wins in the last 6 games, among them wins over Bilbao and Unicaja, both of whom are better than Murcia. On the other hand, Murcia lost 7 out of the last 9 away games, all of them rather convincingly. The only wins they have happened when they had crazy shooting and hit over 90 points. Estudiantes didn't allow over 90 points all seasons long, not even to Real or Laboral. I don't see them allowing more than 80 in a game this important. Murcia struggle with such games a lot and simply cannot win them. We could see Martin make a comeback at the home team today which could bing the crucial mental upper hand. If I were the one setting the offs here, Estudinates would not be at over 1,60 which is why I need to go with these odds with higher stake. Details

Bilbao have finally started playing well at home. We have been saying from the start of the season that they were under pressure here and they really played much better away. But they won the last seven home games and they conceded over this margin only against Obradoiro. If we extend the run to their last 11 home games, they conceded over this margin only twice. They faced Barca twice this season and both times defenses were in the forefront both times. In the league, they conceded 66 points away, and in the Cup they limited Barca to 72 points and won. Those numbers are not by accident because these two teams do not rush, they play organized basketball, and they do not score easily. Bilbao further strengthened their defense and rebound by acquiring Todorovic, and they now have great rotation with Begic, Bogris and Hervelle. I am saying that because Barca won't have a lot of room at offensive rebound, and penetrations are not easy against Begic and Todorovic. Barcelona's style has been figured out and the teams that can compete against them physically, like Lokomotiv, solve them easily. As long as Satoranky is on the court, the offense is not very good and there is no creativity. Coach Pascual keeps the Czech on the court longer because of defense, but also Oleson and Perperoglou also contribute to the fact that attacks are longer and that they often don't have the right solution. Barca won't rush today either, and the only way they can go over today's margin is if Abrines and Navarro have a crazy shooting night which I am ready to risk with this bet. Details

Title of the preview says that Valencia scored 121 point in the previous round and betting on their team under after that sounds optimistic. There are many reasons for that. Valencia faced demoralized Gipuzkoa, they scored 21 three pointer from 33 shots, which it is not easy to do on practice, and that won't happen again. Today they will face much more serious opponents who will not let them rush so much, and especially won't allow easy points. Canarias faltered with their defense in the last two games and that made coach Vidorreta angry. It is known that he is defense-oriented, and he will ask that of today's game. Since his point guard White is out, the game will be slowed down, and defense-orientation will increase. Valencia also play slow basketball with Martinez, and that is confirmed by their numbers from home games. In 10 of the last 11 games, they were convincingly under this margin, and that is no coincidence. They are under pressure today because they lost last two home games. Real are closing in on them in the battle for the second position, and it is likely they will be without Dubljevic today, which means one less option in offense. Because of everything mentioned above, I expect a tough game and Valencia to be under this margin. Details

Adams has been Laboral's 'engine' this season and their best backcourt player. At the start of the season, he shared playing time with James, but Perasovic later trusted him more and more, party because James was nconsistent, so Adams gained confidence and started to play great. Over the last weeks, his playing time increased even more because Causeur got injured and that is an additional bonus to this bet. If we look at it from a statistical point of view, then this does not have a solid basis, because Adams is at this average in Euroleague, but that does not suit today's game. He shared his playing time with James for half the season, Causeur took a lot of balls at home, and they did not play a game this relevant. When we look at their last three championship games against strong Unicaja, Bilbao and Zaragoza, Adams scored 13, 31 and 23 points. At home, he rarely makes under 10 shots, and often even over 10 shots for three pointers. Congrats to Panathinaikos and their defenders Calathes and Diamantidis, but Adams depends on himself, he is very fast and these two cannot keep up with him. Adams will make around 10-15 shots and that should be enough for thim in this game to go over this margin. Details

Barcelona have barely advanced though the 'group of death', but that's what makes them extremely dangerous today, as their coach, Pascual, said. Advancing in such way fills the team with confidence, and today they are facing a team that easily advanced to the quarter-final a lot is expected from them. That means they will be under pressure, and we have yet to see how they will handle it. In the regular season Barca and Lokomotiv shared wins by 4 points, but we should say that Barca were in the lead here by 6, going into the final quarter and then they lost 6 balls in the final quarter, which rarely happens to them, because, on average, they lose 11 balls per game. Today they are in much better form than they were back then, they are aware of the importance of ball control and Lokomotv will not get the easy points they are used to. Barca are a better team in position basketball, and they showed that in their head-to-heads. Delaney will be under pressure by Satoransky or Oleson, and Barca defend themselves great against pick play both with Tomic and with Dorsey who has been out in the first part of the season. He will also be penicilin for Randolph whom he can guard inside and outside the paint. When the axis Delaney-Randolph is stopped, Kuban get into trouble and Barca will use that. Only four teams defeated Kuban at home this season (Unics, CSKA, Fener, Stelmet), but they all have something in common. They have great defense with which they stopped Lokomotiv and that is why Barca have a big chance today, in my opinion. They play great defense and, in my opinion, even better than above mentioned teams. If they limit the game to lower numbers, these handicaps get even more value and I think this game will be decided by one ball, and I give Barcelona the advantage. Details

These kind of tips have become quite a frequent choice when to comes to Real's away games. The margins are mostly based on stats because Real play a rather fast game, which is why it's often forgotten they can also play good defense. That is, after all, what saw them win EL last season. They conceded only 75 and 63 points against Efes in the QF stage last season. Why do I point this out? Because Fener are approximately that level. Just like Efes last year, they are relying on defense this year. There is no rushing into anything, the game is slow paced and organized. We've seen it in the first two meetings these teams played in EL. Fener hit 77 and 73 points in those two. Real have a lot of great defenders and can keep the fast pace up throughout the game. Fener can't really, especially now that Vesely is out. The first two games showed that there is not much running in their games and that defense is what they will rely on today. This is the first game, which means a lot of pressure on Fener. The unbeaten run home won't mean anything if they fail to win today. Real are much more experienced there and have the mentality of winners. That is crucial in these kind of games. I'm sure the kinds will play good defense today and limit the opponents to under 80 points. Details

This is Gipuzkoa's most important game of the season. They need to win today and coach Fisac finally realized that the only way to do that is through defense. Gipuzkoa played decent defense in the first part of the season, but with Fisac's arrival they started playing faster and conceding more. He has now realized that he cannot win without defense, and that is more important in today's game than ever. So it is logical to expect a slow and tough game in which the teams will hardly go over 80 points. If we look at Gipuzkoa's last nine home games games, they conceded over this margin only against the best teams (Barcelona, Laboral, Gran Canaria), while the other 6 teams, who are at the same level as Andorra were limited under 80 points. On the other side, in the last five away games, Andorra were under this margin, and before that they went over only against faster teams. Gipuzkoa are definitely not fast, especially today, and that is why I cannot see Andorra scoring over 75 points, let alone over 80. Details

Today's match between Obradorio and Gran Canaria has huge stakes for the hosts. They're only one defeat away from the relegation zone and today they can't allow themselves another failure. Coach Fernandez clearly pointed out that they can win only by defending themselves, and I'm sure that's the type of match we'll see today. Obradorio were excellent with their defense at home throughout the season and they even left Real and Barcelona under 80 points here. Today they have to repeat that against Gran Canaria because otherwise they know they can't win. The visiting team have less troubles on their mind, but they're also very tired. The trip from Canary to Istanbul, the tough match against Galata, and then the trip back to Spain. That's the reason why I expect the shot percentages to be somewhat lower than usual, and Gran Canaria will surely not rush around like they usually do. I see this match at 150 points max, the way these two teams have played in the last couple of seasons. Details

Laboral are playing their dream season at home floor, but there was an obvious drop of form lately. Unicaja crushed them by 27 points this weekend. That's not the first time with Perasović's teams because he made this roster do better than their best. The opponents have now started reading actions through Bourousis, and Barcelona have a big advantage there because Tomić and Dorsey can guard Laboral's center pretty well. Their second main weapon is Adams, who'll be guarded by Satoransky. Laboral have beaten Barcelona twice in intense final moments this season, but Barcelona didn't have good form then. Now they're great, they're the first in the national league, and this match could secure them in the Euroleague. The pressure is definitely on Laboral because they can't afford another mistake, especially not after the -27 against Unicaja. Barcelona are playing great, Dorsey brought firmness, Satoransky and Doellman are doing great, and Barcelona won't play another bad match soon, and when that's the case, Laboral don't stand a chance. Details

This margin might have made some sense if Estudiantes were playing away against Real or Laboral, but not against the weakened Valencia. Valencia are a working team this season, they base everything on their defense and play a patient, clever game, not the run-and-gun basketball they used to play. The coach Martinez won't give up on that today, especially because he's missing Dubljevic, San Emeterio and Van Rossom. They went over this margin in their last ten home matches only against Real. Everything else stayed under 85 points. Estudiantes pay a lot more attention to defense with Valdeolmillos, so they limited BIlbao to 70 points in the last round. They allowed over this margin only against Real and Laboral this season, but those are really fast teams, and Valencia are different. Estudiantes brought Pumprla and Simpson to firm their defense in the last weeks, and that looks much better now. The stakes are huge here because they're fighting to stay in the league, and if they have any chance against Valencia, it's with their defense. I would be surprised, personally, if they leave Valencia under 80 points, so this margin is great. Details

El Classico is always a spectacle, and the same will happen today. But I don't think the game as such will be spectacular and full of attractions because the stakes are so high, and the game will not be beautiful, despite the amount of talent in both teams. I decided for the under of home team's point for several reasons. Firstly, from the statistical point of view, Barcelona have not scored against Real in derbies over this margin in the last several seasons, that is in ten games before this year. But in two head-to-heads this season they scored first 91, and then 87 points, but we should explain that as well. In the first game, Barca shot over 70%, Real were out of form and that is why they scored 91 point. And then in the Euroleague game, Doellman scored for 87 with the sound of the siren. So for Barca to go over this margin, they need to have an amazing shooting night and last second baskets which are not scored every day. Real are a different team today, Rudy is back and they are finally complete. Besides, they have Lima in the paint who will bring strength and rebound which is very important. We always say that Real owe all their success to defense, and not offense, as it is often believed. We will see aggressive defense today as well because Real have 12 fit players and they will all play hard because of the importance of the game. While Real can still play counterattacks, Barca are a team that has to play slow and position basketball. They will solve their attacks after 20 seconds and that is always a good thing for this type of a bet. In the end, I have to say that I don't think Barcelona are favorites in this game and that gives this team under even more significance. Details

CSKA are a machine this season but they have limitations as well. In the fast, casual game they played against Real, there isn't many teams capable of beating them. The same goes for teams like Olympiacos, who don't have what it takes in defense to stand up to the Russians. Barcelona, on the other hand, have the best of both worlds. They can play the Olympiacos-level defense and have more than enough options in offense, especially since Arroyo is fit now. They have been nearly invincible here the past few year and the occasional slips were a consequence of decline in form and injury struggles. Barcelona have great defenders and can stand up to De Colo and Teodosic. I don't think CSKA can do equally well on the defensive end because they will have to use Freeland instead of Hines for the most part of the match because of Tomic. All due respect to CSKA and their season, we saw they're not invincible. Khimki and Laboral beat them and Barca are better than both those teams. They have to be the favorites here. Details

Statistically, this margin is set properly but it's still not entirely precise. Zalgiris played Real many times over the past few season and there a pattern we should stick to. The games in Madrid were much more productive since Real are much more dominant there. When it comes to games taking place here, they were always much tougher, especially because Zalgiris turned into a much tougher team than expected. They got limited to 66 and 72 points in the last two games here and that's no coincidence. Real always reached top results through great defense. I expect something like that here today because Jasikevicius is not naive and he'll try and slow this down. This game is far too important for Real and they'll open it strong, which means Zalgiris will struggle scoring and I see them much closer to 70 than 80 points. Details

Cremona are pretty weakened without Cusin. He's a center who dominates the paint, the rebounds, and guards pick and roll surprisingly well. Cremona's defense was based on him, but also the offensive pick game. His substitute is Biligh, who's noticeably weaker. That's the first reason for this counter handicap. The second one is Orlando's renaissance since Boatright came. The American sped their game up, brought points, rejuvenated the entire team. Everyone plays better next to him, and Orlando won four of the last five matches. As Ilievski says, they now believe they can beat anyone. Cremona are the third team of the table, and are playing really well at home. But on a second look, they're not a team who crush their opponent. They simply don't have a wide enough roster. I'm not talking about Orlando's previous away matches because that was without Boatright and that's completely different. In these circumstances, I think this match is very evened out, and that makes this counter handicap look great. Details