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Although Brands won a decisive victory yesterday, Couacaud had more to do with that as the 20-year-old obviously got emotionally exhausted last week by getting to the semifinal. He did not do well without rhythm, in a match where he could do practically nothing on returns. Authom can handle such situations, he beat Zapp with just a single serve lost, which is a good win and a continuation of his form from last week. He was tough against the Estonian and did good work with his backhand, something he'll be able to do against Brands as well, in the rare longer rallies. Authom is not a challenger level player, but has more than 100 ITF victories indoors. Brands took all three qualifications matches over this margin, and the Belgian is definitely not an underdog here. Details

Kovalik has a bad record indoors; only four wins in 20 matches, but he's not beaten easily (only by Marchenko). Kovalik took over the margin Zopp and Authom indoors. Last year it was Mertl, Berankis, Ilhan and Petzschner. All proven indoor players. Only Kudryavtsev didn't take him onto more games, but he went into a tie-break with him. Here the conditions are faster than last week and De Schepper won't have an easy job. Even though he's the favorite, I doubt he could beat the Slovak without a tie-break, and I wouldn't be surprised if the match goes into the third set. Details

I've seen a lot of Karlovic's matches this season and I am simply amazed with his game. But Acapulco is not Delray Beach. He won all five matches in straight sets last week but he won't be able to play the same kind of game here. He won the third set 6-2 here and things could have just as easy end differently. He saves a total of 5 break points. I had this margin yesterday but there was no knowing how Gabashvili would do because he's been having shoulder problems for week now. Dusan likes these conditions. He's been in South America for weeks and he's in Top 100 for a while now. I trust Lajovic, he made a comeback here and he's been a tough opponent for Ivo back when he was 20 and 22. He's now more experienced and mentally stronger, he forced a third set against Lopez and Klizan this season and played 5 sets against Stakhovski. I know he will fight hard and it's only a matter of time before Karlovic is back at 24.5 games, no matter who the opponent is. This one is two games lower and we can't miss out on that. Details

Basic may not be a top level server but he's very predictable. He's good at service, bad against it. He has been playing a lot in the last few weeks. I think the fatigue won't be the key factor here because he starts later and his game doesn't require a lot of energy. As for this margin, he covered it in 9 out of 16 matches this season. He played 9 tie-breaks last week only, qualifying matches included. He is now on the verge of making it into Top 200 and that is nice. A lot is expected from him and he bat Haase and Beck in these conditions. He forced two tie-breaks against Mannarin this season. I think he has a shot at winning today, but braining Basic down is tough. I think we're in for a very close match, given Frenchman's lack of experience and not many matches lately. Details

Rarely do we get a margin this low at a specialist for these conditions. Mertl beat Nedovyesov (Bergamo semifinalst) in three tie-breaks, before that forced three sets against Paire (title winner in Bergamo). He forced three sets against Ilhan, who is sometimes playing ATP level and is clearly a tricky opponent. Mertl played 3 sets in 8 out of his 9 matches this season. Darcis struggled with moving in semifinals last week. He forced three sets but wasn't at his top level. Even if he is doing his best, this margin would be set too low. Darcis did a great job this season but opened three out of 4 tournaments with games over at this margin. He finished at 18 against Cervantes and that is because of the first set bagel. Mertl is a very tough opponents for the first round indoors and Darcis is too become aware of it soon. Details

The unwritten rule is not to bet on a player who won the title last week but I'm going to make an exception here for a reason. Not even the change of surface will make me change my mind - going from clay to hard court is much easier than vice-verse. Ferrer won Rio last week, and even though he wasn't doing brilliantly, his performances were better each next match and he went on winning Ferrer-style. Some might be surprise with his choosing hard-court Acapulco next but this is his most successful tournament. He won is three years in a row and lost to Nadal in the final the 4th year. He came back last year when they switched from clay to hard-court to record two convincing opening wins, won the first set against Anderson 6-2 and had to retire with an injury. Acapulco doesn't have a typical hard-court surface and rallies are possible here. Most importantly, the conditions are tough - a combinations of heat and humidity that won't agree with Sijsling. He never played well in such conditions. He has only 4 wins (two after the opponents retired) and 15 defeats in them over the last few years. He lost to a qualifier last week and the conditions were cold and windy. He is now to face one of the toughest players. Ferrer loves Acapulco and since he didn't spend too much energy in the last two matches, fatigue should not be a problem. Best of all, he always beats Sijsling, no matter the surface. He limited him to one game on grass, to 8 games at Roland Garros. Ferrer's perseverance, conditions that won't agree with Sijsling, and huge difference in confidence-level will do the trick and I expect this bet to be successful easily. For the braver among you, try a higher handicap. This one should probably not even exist. Details

Krajicek is not a typical American who relies on his serve and forehand. He's a good server for other reasons, like slice, which is always a good combination with being a leftie. He beat Bedene in straight sets in a qualifying match yesterday despite being down 3-0 in both. He is not lacking confidence. He managed to win a set against Nishiori last week in Memphis, and beat Karlovic. They both won titles the last few weeks. Giraldo was given a wildcard that was supposed to go to Del Porto here. He deserves to be here since he had two QFs and a semifinal. He retired with dehydration last week but probably recovered a few days later. The American, on the other hand, lacks experience and his last 6 matches ended over this margin. Since he plays a lot of tie-breaks, this bet can be successful even in two even though I would not be surprised by thriller since the Colombian has experience and Krajicek has form and qualifying matches. Details

Continuing to pick first set tie-break for several reasons. Karlović lived up to our expectations, playing four matches in his USA tour and failing to get the bet through only once, against Brown who made two double faults in a game he lost. Krajicek, Lacko and Kokkinakis all covered this bet, and Johnson should too. The American has plenty of experience with tall servers, after all he did beat Karlović in both previous matches, but with lots of luck, in an extended third set tie-break. It's all clear here and the American knows what's coming. He is not the kind of player to get scared of being unable to return, and can hold his serve. Everything points to a tie-break. In his two matches against Isner four of the five sets played were decided in a tie-break. Against Raonic he had four in three matches. In all those matches we saw a first set tie-break. He has four tie-breaks in two matches against Karlović, so the choice is clear. Over on games in the match also sounds good, despite the margin being high, which was to be expected. Details

Mertl played 8 matches this season to finish only one of them in straight sets. He can force a tie-break against pretty much anyone. He knocked-out Nedovyesov in the first round in three sets, gave Paire a hard time last week...He played two tie-breaks with Clezar this year, with Marcora three. He struggled against opponents' service even though he met players who prefer clay. Best of all, he allow Kapas to have a single break point in the last 2 sets yesterday and still lost the first one. Basic is a tpical indoor challengers player. He is not capable of a convincing win no matter the opponent. And that makes him very similar to Mertl. Basic played three sets in two qualifying matches in which he was the favorite and then beat Huta Galung in two tie-breaks. The stakes are high, neither of these players make it into semifinals often. Both have a chance and it seems like we're to see games over today. When it comes to Mertl, that's always the logical choice. Details

When it comes to playing Nadal, the opponent has to meet certain criteria to be regarded as dangerous. He needs to have a good first serve, fierce shots, and cannot stay on the baseline all the time. Busta meets none of the above criteria. He's very good on clay but this is a classical situation in which one player does everything better. I remember Busta's matches with Robredo last season well. Roredo won all three of them in straight sets, settling the score with his forehand. I don't see why Nadal wouldn't do it even more convincingly given his defensive potential. Carreno Busta won't be able to disrupt Nadal's rhythm. Belluci was in my opinion a better opponent and Nadal sailed through toward the win after finding rhythm in the first set. He will be even better now, I think. I expect him to win at least one one-sided set, which should be enough for this handicap. On top of everything, Nadal knows his compatriot very well and has a great deal of respect for him, which only speaks in favor of this decision. Details

Brown once again defeated himself, thus causing problems for me and possibly for you too. There was only one break in the first two sets and the German then made two double faults. Kokkinakis should be the ideal opponent for this bet. He is a great server who can't do much against opponents' serves. I don't see how he could get a break here. He lost two service games in 4 matches and won the last two by not allowing a single chance for a break. When it comes to Karlovic, this is a good bet too. He's had 10 matches this season and 7 first set tie-breaks. Krajicek and Lacko did as expected last week and I don't see why Kokkinakis wouldn't. Details

Isner is always very predictable when it comes to first round matches. He opened 14 tournaments last season with a tie-break. That is his usual style but gets even 'worse' when he has no confidence. He takes less risk against his opponent's service until he find the winning rhythm and that, in turn, makes him much less dangerous. His serving is consistent. He played two matches last week with one tie-break. Matosevic is a a bit of a quirk but probably knows that no tricks will do against Isner. Only one first set in three head-to-head matches didn't finish in a tie-break. That was last season when Isner won in straight sets with only one break in the whole match. The Australian won a single break in those three matches. I don't he can count on winning breaks back, which means focus in own service games is the key. Details

Przysiezny is not a player for wins because too often he acts like he doesn't care, but he's still a great force in fast conditions. I followed him in Bergam, and that's a classic. On the first serve it's bombardment, in exchanges as well. If he's in, then he doesn't return the ball. He dodesn't give any rhythm to his opponent. Out of four defeats this season, only one was lost in two sets. Here he's especially motivated. Home court and his birthday yesterday. As far as I've gathered from the Polish media, he practices often in this hall. If he's as focused as he says he is, we have a good bet from the start because play-wise he can beat anyone indoors at this level. We don't even need a win- A set would be enough, and he should win one definitely. Although Darcis was great in Montpellier, he won five matches in two sets, but he injured his stomach muscle. Because of that he lost really fast to Monfils in the second half of the match, and that's why he cancelled Bergamo last week. For a smaller bet you should try the home player's win for the odds over 3. Details

I saw both Karlovic's head-to-head matches with Brown. In Doha, Brown was a set and a break down and managed to make a comeback. He won again on German clay, this time in two tie-breaks. Despite the fact he's 2-0 against the great server, Brown loves these kind of matches. They are a challenge and he always does great against the service. He converted two break points against Johnson last week in the first set only. Even though they played indoors and even though Johnson had killer serves, Brown managed to fire a lot of them back. Brown hit to winners against Johnson's serves while the opponent served for the match. Before that, Brown destroyed Janowitz indoors. The only problems is that he lost both of those matches and that is why we need this handicap. He missed 6 match-points against Janowitz, played a bad tie-break against Johnson. But he has what it takes against the great servers. I remember he beat Isner in the same manner. Rhythm-less matches are what he likes. It requires special talent of course, but that's no problem for Brown. I believe he will win a set in his special way and that should be enough to cover this handicap, with the possible tie-breaks as the fail-safe. For those who feel the same, you should go with +2.5. Details

I still think Ginepri should give up his racquet and take up some other career, instead of being a professional tennis player. He did get an occasional invite last year, but he can't even count on that anymore. Last week, I bet on Kudla against him, and yes, Ginepri couldn't match a young and prepared opponent. As Ginepri himself said a few times, he's playing for love. Hats off for his career, but that doesn't mean much today. He got defeated by Smyczek, Moriya and Kudla this year. Every time convincingly. Bedene's realistically speaking Top 100 material, but he can't play constantly because of his problematic wrist. He's fresh here, and that's enough for me. He defeated players like Garcia-Lopez and Bautista this year, got to Chennai final, and from qualifiers, too. He's the first seed here, and should take out the tired veteran in straight sets. Details

I remember the last year's match between Nishikori and Querrey well. The American started the home tour badly, lost convincingly to Sela and Robredo, but took Nishikori to the third set. I think it's no coincidence that he's got 3-2 against the Japanese, and that he took at least a set each time. He won three matches in a row here, and six consecutive sets. Yesterday's win against Isner will boost his self-confidence even more, which is crucial for him. When he's having a go, he can take a set from anybody. Nishikori lost a set in each of the matches played here, against opponents who aren't as experienced as Querrey. His ranking went down here, but Querrey won't be scared of Nishikori. That's the key here, and he's got a better chance for a surprise. Still, I'll go for more games because the Japanese's got the quality, and he knows how to get through. Details

To be honest, I thought Pouille will defeated Zopp yesterday, but it's really hard to show quality in conditions like these. Especially against Zopp who sometimes played as an ATP player, which he was before the injury. By the end of the first set, he got two winners out of nothing, and then did the same when Pouille was serving for the first set. When he plays like this, he can go all the way. On the other hand, Paire survived two matches here, and then convincingly defeated Dustov yesterday. He didn't lose his serve from the first set here, and gave his opponents lots of chances. Zopp isn't giving the rhythm, Paire got an invite for Marseille and he can now focus on the tournament final. It all points that there'll be over in games. Even if not, in conditions like these, I'd put two games over the margin. Details

Isner didn't do as expected. He was winning his service games in a convincing manner and managed to win that one break on account of one good game against opponent's service. Querrey played two good matches to restore some of his confidence. The two of them are best friends, they practice together and spend a lot of time together. That means they know each other very well. Both know that they need to be winning their service game or they'll lose the set. This bet was successful in two of their three head-to-head matches and should be successful again. One opponent has nothing that could surprise the other one and vice-versa. The outcome of the first set will probably put more pressure on the player who loses it. He will then go on taking more risk, but the first set should offer very little chance for a break-point. Details

Brands played five matches here, including qualifications, and never allowed a break in any of them. That means 50 serve games won in a row. He is abusing the quick surface without mercy, though they deprive him of return chances too. He took three of the four sets played in the main draw into tie breaks, and took just one break in those last two matches. Marchenko is a very good indoors player, in good shape, but he's not Đoković to deal with a great server on returns. Two more tie breaks are to be expected, as the German had against Kravchuk yesterday, and may the better player win. Details

Anderson didn't play since Melbourne. He decided to take a break and was expected to not play until Delray Beach. But he got the wild card and decided to come here. He had the first round by and now faces the opponent I think is most challenging one, besides players who are seeded. The Australian gives the opponents no rhythm. He served well before, but now improved him return too and often goes on the net. He had only 45% of first serves against Lu, lost his service game twice, and still won easily. That kind of game style might be a great problem for Anderson who doesn't have rhythm and won't find it today. Groth will be in Top 50 in no time. Great servers Raonic and Muller struggled against him this season to lose to both in third set tie break. Maybe this match will end with a lot of games, but I'm going with the +2.5 at the Australian. Nishikori seemed a bit rusty yesterday and I think Anderson will have the same problem. His opponent will take advantage of it and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins. Either way, good server that Groth is and indoors condition make +2.5 a safe choice. Details