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Gasquet was nervous at the start of his first round match and lost the first set after numerous mistakes, while he won just three of the seventeen matches in which he lost the first set this season. I know he is not much of a fighter, but he kept his cool and proved he deserves our trust here, he is committed here and it shows. Unlike the Frenchman, who is highly motivated, I believe Bautista ended his season last week. He played in Valencia and said it means a lot to him to play at home, and then suddenly pulled out of the tournament after winning the first round without allowing a single break point. I'm convinced he would not have don that were it not for something really serious, after all he was on home court and had no reason to save his strength for this tournament. Once I read what it was about the story became clear, as his stomach muscle is a problem that's been bothering him for a while. Gasquet is highly motivated as he is looking to get into a good rhythm for the Davis Cup, win the second player position, and has already broken the ice here in the first round. Bautista on the other hand secured the Top 20 and forfeited on home ground last week due to an injury that used to be very serious. Everything is pointing towards a decisive victory by the Frenchman. Details

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The two opponents in very different situations. Querrey won three consecutive challenges, having recorded 15 consecutive wins. He has a very favorable draw, but any wins, especially this many, can do wonders for one's confidence. He already found his rhythm here, since he played the qualifying matches and did that very easily and convincingly. Janowicz, on the other hand, has been injured since Asia. He almost pulled out of Basel, but decided to play in the end, only to win a total of two games against Istomin. He got in the main draw here last minute. If he didn't he would not have been here. His mother said his injury is not minor and that only goes to confirm he's in a very tough situation. He won the only meeting with Querrey this season. It was a very close match, played during his best week this season. Being as he is at the moment, he won't be able to perform at that level. Querrey should be able to win this and cover this handicap. Details

That matches between Federer and Karlović are played with a pattern. The Swiss is focused on his serve and patiently waits for his chance. He's not afraid of tie-breaks, which makes sense when he won 10 out of 11 matches. Even though this didn't always work (seven out of 12), they played indoors only one other time. It was in Basel, too, and the match ended in two tie-breaks. Of course, the conditions here work for these kinds of bets even more, and for a combination, I definitely recommend +4.5 on Ivo. It worked in all nine matches they played in two sets won. Details

Karlović demolished De Schepper on the return yesterday, but only starting with the second half of the second set, up to when everything went as predicted. We saw a single break point in the first set and it was the Frenchman who had it. Becker and Kukushkin played break for break yesterday (although two sets ended in tie breaks), but this is a different story. Becker has a negative score against the Croatian and knows full well that losing your serve means losing a set. The first set of their last three duels ended in a tie break, and of the seven they played two were indoors. All four sets were extended, and both of the first ones had a tie-break. I expect the same happening today as Ivo played four first-set tie-breaks in his last five indoor matches. Details

Dimitrov played the last match of the day yesterday and should have lost it. His movement was terrible, and he winced as well. There is not official information regarding an injury, but he is obviously not himself. Perhaps it's just fatigue from the Stockholm final, but he just was not his usual self. Zverev should have easily won that in two sets, but he missed his chances and played his worst when it mattered most. Dmitrov saved 11 of 14 break points and converted four of five, meaning he won all the key points and barely managed to win in the end. I'm convinced he would not even be playing were he not chasing London, as he is obviously spent. Pospisil on the other hand managed to keep his serve throughout the match, winning all 16 serve games against the unpleasant Nieminen. He allowed his first break points in the third set, and scored close to 30 aces, serving brilliantly, and is defending the semifinal here. Last year he even dragged Federer to a three set match. I repeat, I don't know if Dimitrov is really injured, but he has problems and no time to rest since he is playing again today. Personally I played on the Canadian to win, but the odds dropped on that, badly, which is why this handicap looks great to me. With the way he's serving Pospisil could cover it under normal circumstances and still have a good shot at winning, under the current ones this looks like a sure thing. After all, odds for this match could soon go to equal. Details

De Schepper is doing surprisingly well in Basel. He has had 31 break-point here, the qualifying matches included, and managed to use one third of them. Three matches in a row won gives him a boost of confidence. Karlovic beat Rosol, who clearly took an early vacation. It was a routine win Karlovic-style. He will struggle against De Schepper's service. The difference in ranking is the only reason for this handicap, but the real difference between players is not as big. This bet was successful once already when they played two tie-breaks with neither losing a single service game. I expect a similar outcome today, but I think De Schepper will have the upper hand on account of his great performances in Basel. Details

Ferrer said he's tired but needs to keep pushing to secure a spot in London. He's defending the final here and the one in Paris next week as well. He can't afford to take a break though he really needs one. Seppi was a perfect opponent at the start here, having lost to Ferrer in all of their 11 head-to-head matches. He didn't take initiative which was not surprising since he's been playing non-stop. He had trouble moving especially after last week's final in Vienna. His opponent Verdasco love matches such as this one - he's got nothing to lose, he's motivated and capable of winning a set against anyone. Ferrer might get through, he's good at close wins,but I think this is the end for him. Verdasco should be able to get a set here and take advantage of Ferrer's fatigue. Details

Many struggle to stay motivated as the season draws closer to its end, but not Dolgopolov. Injury kept him off the court for a long time. He was finding his rhythm in Asia, and squandered a win last week as a result of the break he had, but he is trying hard. Simon won 20 points in the first set here (on paper its enough to win five games), and did not win a game. The Ukrainian allowed him none. Although Chardy also had a decisive victory, I must say Jaziri is not ATP quality. He did take advantage of the draw in Shanghai, but he is still a challenger player, which makes the Frenchman's victory rather irrelevant, regardless of how decisive it was. The poor performances he had the past few months have much more merit, with only a victory vs Anderson worth mention. On the return he could do nothing against Struff, nor against Sock last week, and he did poorly in the USA. Dolgopolov has momentum and indoors suits him, not because he played a finale here, but because of the way he played. I would not be surprised if Chardy's mind were on Paris a bit as well, as all the French are focused on that tournament next week. I believed Dolgopolov would beat Simon, and I have even more faith in him now, as he was only missing some confidence. When he has momentum, Dolgopolov is worthy of the title. Today he should beat another Frenchman, and the handicap can play even at three sets. Details

Berdych has not yet secure a spot in the ATP Finals in London. His approach will therefore be very serious, and with the great performances over the last month. He won seven consecutive matches, always covering this handicap, for a title in Beijing and then won another title last week. Fatigue should not be a problem here as he was given a first round bye. He covered this handicap in both head-to-head matches with Andujar. The Spaniard who has not played a single match since Shaghai is now meeting a super-motivated top 10 player currently on a winning streak. I expect another convincing win for the Czech, especially because Andujar is capable of justifying his ranking only on clay. Details

Kukushkin has been doing great lately, as Djokovic and Cilic confirmed after their last meetings with him. His game is bursting with confidence, he's attacking and looking to score. He fired 35 winners in his head-to-head match with Djokovic in Shanghai and reached semi-final last week, which is very indicative of his current quality. Wawrinka secured a spot in the ATP Finals in London as expected. But, he hasn't won since New York, with Asian string of tournaments proving to be a disaster. He's always under a lot of stress when playing home (lost his first round matches last two years in Basel). He want to do perfectly home but ends up putting too much pressure on himself. He did beat Kukushkin recently, but that was a Davis Cup match. Playing when your idol (Federer) is giving you support is much easier than being on the court all by yourself. Even so, Kukushkin managed to get a set in that match and put up a good fight. His performances are now better, while Wawrinka's diminished. I wouldn't not be surprised to see Wawrinka crash out of yet another Basel first round. Details

I have a feeling that Karlovic is tired. He's not as aggresive as he was on the return and that favors this bet. Last week he played three matches and made only one break - against Melzer in a game which was interrupted shortly since the Austrian needed medical help because of his heart. Rosol is out of shape, but he only needs to keep the serve here. The fact that it's not even the right one suits me because I usually respect his return game when it's in full swing. Regarding mutual meetings, he was the only one to finish in two tie-breaks although both of them had their share of chances on the return. Both of them give out little rhythm, they love fast games and that will be the most visible at the start. Details

Simon reached the Shanghai finals and in the end could've won the title, but some things are forgettable. In the first round of Tokio he saved five match-points and should've lost against Muller. Only his combative spirit pulled him out. Those wins gave him some self-confidence and he was great in Shanghai. He is not a continuity player and I doubt he could continue what he finished in Asia. Last week a small number of players did it, and Dolgopolov is willing to play. After a minor knee operation he was out for quite some time. The Asian tour was a comeback one, he tried out some things and last week it all seemed better. He lost, but he had a good game. He is in an upward motion at the moment and today I'll be expecting a lot from him. He has a positive ratio against Simon which means a lot to me because the French is uncomfortable for some, but good for others. With it, the Ukrainian has some nice experiences from Valencia. This is a classical example where the odds are blown up because of a single tour, but Dolgopolov is far more dangerous than the odds show. I wouldn't be surprised if he beats Simon today, only for the Frenchman to later blame an injury or fatigue. This time that is even logical. In any case, I opted for a handy just because of Simon's incredible power of survival. Details

Out of 10 sets, the number of how many Robredo and Isner played mutually, seven went into overtime (12 or 13 games). This is the first round and Isner always enters the tournament more carefully. His tactics are simple. He is focused on the serve and waits for his chance on the return. Robredo is aware of that, so he himself has the same tactics. Here and there he has excellent percentage on the first serve, primarily because he knows how to attack the void point with a forehand. In that manner he could keep the serve, and out of Isner I expect to do the same only with a serve. The court in Valencia is not that fast, but the ball flies pretty well. That favors the American. Considering that the two out of three mutual matches began with a tie-break, this is a very good bet on something completely logical. Details

Thing are pretty clear here. Karlovic has not lost a single service game in any of his 5 sets here, with only one of them ending in a tie-break. The surface is very fast in Vienna, as Ferrer said. This is the fourth head-to-head meeting between Ferrer and Karlovic, with all the previous three first sets decided in tie-break. Win your service games and wait for an opportunity - that will be Ferrer's tactics today. I don't think there will many of those opportunities for him, especially if Karlovic manages to keep his first service percentage high. The first set tie break is the expected outcome in this match. Any kind of first set over is a good choice. Details

In some cases ranking does not matter. I don't care for the season Melzer had, or for the games he shouldn't have lost. Regardless of all his issues, he will always have what it takes go face Karlović. When he is motivated, he is one of the best double players, precisely because he is a good tactician. He can use his lefthanded serve and finesses the servers. He blocks the serve, goes forward and sends them plenty of soft balls, making tall servers make the extra move in an elite manner. This is why he won the first four matches against Karlović without losing a set. He lost the last one 3-0, but here we have a controlled environment, which suits the Austrian better. He is playing at home and is well motivated, while Karlović could not get a break over three sets yesterday against clay native Delbonis, or even a break point. Melzer will once again show he has the game for the tall server, with a plan and strategy, and I'm going with a stronger bet against a handicap set wrong in my opinion. Details

Brands has poor ranking due to mononucleosis and many missed tournaments, but he is back now, and Vienna is after all one of the tournaments he is most successful at. Over the last three years he only lost to Top 10 players and even they struggled to beat him, for instance he took a set against both Del Potro and Tsonga. He played through the qualifiers, so I believe he can surprise today. However, I decided to take the get set option, as Pospisil just returned from the Asian tour and will need time to adjust to indoor conditions. Details

I placed the very same bet at this year's Wimbledon at odds below 1.8. It may have lacked value, but it was simply one of those bets you can't miss out on. Three sets were decided in tie-break back then, with the final one extended as well. That means there was only one break in 4 sets. The odds are better today just because of the assumption that grass is a faster surface than hard court. But, Shaghai is proving to be tricky precisely because of the speed on the surface. Isner beat Johnson yesterday in a match where neither managed to win a break, while Lopez lost his service game once in five sets he did so far (to Nadal). Both have amazing service stats, which is why expect a lot of tie breaks today. I decided to go with the first set because all good servers focus on their deadliest weapon in the beginning, and change strategies later on, depending on the score. Details

Federer has an 8-3 score at this tournament, and managed to cover this handicap only once. He only played at the Davis Cup since the US Open, it's the end of the season, and I don't expect him to have a wild start. This is primarily a case of underestimating Mayer. The Argentinian just got in the Top 25 and is playing the best he ever had. Although he never played against the Swiss, I doubt he'll get scared, he's just not the type. After all, he won close to 30 ATP matches this season and is looking forward to seed status at the Australian Open. Here he already won a match, his serve is working well, and the conditions are rather quick, as most people have been saying for year. The worst case scenario: Federer gets one break per set, which is a common scenario in his matches. Details

Monfils going against another Pole. Przysiezny did well yesterday until 5-5 when the umpire gave him a warning over his delay during a break chance, which caused him to lose his nerves and concentration. He won only one more game until the end of the match. The bet didn't go through but the story was right on the money. Monfils admitted he didn't train on the central court, that he had a problem with the transition and that he was not in the right rhythm. He talked about his injury, but I'm not interested in that. Przysiezny, unfortunately, didn't believe in himself and fell apart as a terrible season left a mark on his confidence. Janowicz shouldn't have the same problem. His serve should give him a lot of free points, he can go into open lay with Monfils and his confidence is increasing. He showed that against Nieminen. He saved all break chances and used the two he was given, one in each set. I know he believes he can beat Monfils and when he's got confidence he's surely Top 30 material. The final of Winston-Salem has helped him regain his confidence and he should give the struggling Frenchman a hard time. I've decided to go for +3 rather than +2.5 as it can make the difference here and the odds are good. I also recommend going for an over of games, while the braver punters can go for Janowicz's win with a smaller stake. Details