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There is a big difference between Jaziri and Chiudinelli at the moment. The Swiss' career is in decline, while the Tunisian's is gaining momentum. While the Swiss played challengers and lost to Mannarin and Cipolla, Jaziri played at the highest level over the past weeks, beating two Top 50 players and holding a break advantage against Čilić. Here he beat the tricky Buchanan in three sets, who is ranked better at 23 years old than the Swiss is. This handicap can play in three sets too, as if it comes to hat, 32-year old Chiudinelli will feel it worse. Details

Goffin beat Melzer here, a title defender, and Meyer, a new Top 30 player with the best ranking in his career. Both had a reason to believe they'd win, and Goffin beat them without losing his serve. I won't waste time talking about his 24 consecutive wins. Nieminen played his first match on concrete since Miami, and beat Becker for the fifth time in a row, so we can say the German's style suits him. I remember it well when the Finn left Goffin without a single game in Rotterdam last year. Those were the worst moments of his career for the Belgian, and his confidence was never as low as that. He must have remembered that in the final a month ago in Finland. Although the Belgian had momentum, the mental advantage was on Nieminen's side, and he played at home as well. It did not help. Goffin won in two sets with a single break point allowed. The Belgian then won his first ATP title as well, won four matches here, and is mentally even stronger. I believe this will be easier than the match in Finland a month ago, and he covered the handicap back then as well. Details

I missed out on Goffin-Melzer yesterday, even though everything suggested the Belgian would be the right choice. But I wanted to be sure. Melzer was defending the title and he's proved to be a tricky opponent for Goffin. But, it was an easy win in the end, characteristic of players bursting with confidence. I think this will be an easier task for him, even though this opponent has better ranking. Mayer has been doing a great job the last few months. The title in Hamburg was the greatest success - his first title and the first Top 10 win. It all sounds great, but the Argentinian didn't have a match for over a month. His last match on hard court was in Australian Open. On the other hand, Goffin is on a 23-match winning run. He's bursting with confidence, he's got good rhythm, and already did three matches here. That is a huge advantage that will cause problems for Mayer. He lost the first match last year to Pella here. Details

These two players are currently moving in opposite directions. Janowicz finally got better last week. It was nothing brilliant, but he got his confidence back. If he's on a run, he can be a tough opponent for just about anyone. Sousa almost lost to an American who has no ATP experience whatsoever last week. His opponent even served for the win. The Portuguese is known for having bad runs - he lost the first round matches in 11 out of the last 16 tournaments he did. janowicz didn't allow him to do anything against his serve in their only head-to-head meeting. He beat Berlocq in straight sets yesterday. The Pole is getting better, and should be able to win today. Since he's capable of winning all of his service games, this handicap should prove the right choice. Details

Johnson defeated Paire and Gulbis in two sets here, so he won't lack self-confidence. He played against Raonic three weeks ago. He defeated Isner and Karlovic then, so he's not afraid of big servers. Even though he lost against the Canadian in two sets, we didn't see one break-ball in the first set. There was only one deuce on his serve. Raonic crushed Ginepri, but the veteran can't match him anymore. Johnson can. Especially at the beginning of the match, so that's why I take more games in the first set. Details

Gulbis didn't play right since Roland Garros. He has most problems with return, so he lost to Stakhovski, De Schepper, and Benneteau by not realizing break balls, 0/10. Even Zopp took him to a tie-break in the first set, even though he's a comebacker with no form after a long injury. If Johnson showed anything, it's a smart game against the servers. He's not a player to score lots of aces, but he can keep the serve and is uncomfortable in that segment. Gulbis felt it two years ago, when he didn't make a break on hardcourt in four sets. Gulbis is a better player now, but so is Johnson. The Latvian barely defeated Dodig yesterday in two tie-breaks, even though the Croatian player really weakly, probably tired from Toronto. Johnson is rising, he crushed Paire yesterday, and he knows how to play against big hitters. Details

Winning against Gabashvili won't fool us, and some numbers show there's no change in the Polish's game. He had a lot of double errors again (9), and almost 30 unforced. That passed against the Russian, but he lost to Polanski, a challenger level, with the same numbers last week. Janowicz has almost seven double errors per match this season. He forces because he's got physical problems, and has foot problems when serving. Add to that that it never worked out for him in this part of the season, and he still has no wins in the US Open main lot, then the problems are obvious. On the other hand, Dimitrov anchored himself in Top 10. Just like Federer, he likes outplaying opponents. Robredo complicated his life last week, but the Spaniard was always the best in toughest situations. Janowicz isn't. When he's forcing, and it's not working, he just starts hitting harder. I've seen him in the last weeks, he's not himself. Dimitrov should use that. Details

Klizan started training very late, so he had to dose. He has wrist issues occasionally, his old problem, but the shoulder is new and more serious. He might even have to get surgery. He said he trains half an hour at a time because he doesn't want to take risks. Bautista lost to Lopez last week, but then defeated two Top 10 players. Klizan isn't ready, while Bautista is fighting to get to Top 15, and is not a player to lose in series. He should use the Slovakian's problems here. That's what the Spaniard built his Top 20 status on. Details

The margin for this match is the maximum 25.5 games. The reason is these are great servers whose matches are decided in the tie-break. This time around I decided to go for the handicap. Although +2,0 might not seem like an advantage, it went through in two of the last three times someone lost to Isner. Apart from that, in case this turns out to be a two tie-break loss, we get our money back. There are several reasons why I'm playing this bet. The first one is that Isner is under far more pressure. He dropped out in his first match at his last two tournaments, and this is his part of the season. He is defending the final here, so a bunch of points is on the line. He failed to even get a break in his last two defeats. Anderson let Dimitrov off the hook by missing a match point. Up to that moment he played great, and prior to that he beat Wawrinka, who could not touch him on returns. He's playing very well, and I doubt fatigue can be a factor in a match where games last less than a minute. I believe Anderson can win, and will be more dangerous on returns. Isner was terrible on return over the past few weeks, and this handicap is a safety against the tie-breaker lottery. Details

Sousa is a Top 40 player, playing his best tennis on faster surfaces over the last two seasons. Most importantly, he is a proven quality player at all levels, while Buchanan isn't. He was invited to the US Open at 19, won three games and waited five years for the next ATP match. Beating the semi-retired Llodra and injured Smyczek raised the odds against the Portuguese. The part they failed to take into account is the way yesterday's match developed. Although Smyczek struggled to move, he had 3-1 in the first set and 5-3 in the second. Buchanan also missed three match points in a row, but still managed to win somehow in the end. To cut a long story short, he was lucky. In his last five challengers he lost within this handicap against players out of Top 100, apart from Mannarin. This is also new territory for him, he was very nervous yesterday and everything was in his favor. He pointed out that return is his strongest suit. Sousa will like such an opponent, one he can play with and force to make mistakes. This can go through with a single break, but I think it will go through cleanly. The American probably spent his luck in the qualifiers, the rest should go Sousa's way. Details

There are a few reasons I think this is a good bet. Mostly Ungur's experience in the finals. He's got seven challenger titles, and Veic only one. Yesterday, the Romanian crushed Giannessi and both pointed out the Italian's reason as the cause. Nobody spent more time on court this week than Veic did. He started from the qualifications, this is his eighth match this week, and he spent 12 hours on court. Yesterday, he won the mental battle against Clezar. We saw lots of breaks, eight in the first set alone, and the mentally stronger passed. Considering Veic's tennis is based on running and fighting, not just tactics or hits quality, the fatigue will definitely be a factor. On the other hand, Ungur played his best match in San Marino yesterday. He said he's on a climbing route. In the end, he defeated Veic in all three matches they played, and covered this handicap every time. So, Ungur is improving, he's a proven challenger player with seven titles, and Veic spent 12 hours on court this week. Besides, the Croatian has only one challenger title in his career, and he lost all three matches against Ungur, every time in this handicap. Details

Ferrer planned to cancel this tournament, but then decided to ask the organizers for a later start. He barely beat Russell, saved six break points in the first set, and lost it in the end against Dodig. Dodig had the chance to win, but Ferrer somehow managed to get through. Allegedly, a part of his elbow bone is chipped. His performances so far shouldn't do against Federer. The Swiss did failed to use 10 break points against Cilic, but Cilic is a great server. Ferrer allowed the opponents 25 break-points in two matches, but this time around, the opponent is much better. Federer should be able to record a convincing win. If Federer wasn't struggling as much with break-points, the bet would probably be two units stronger. Details

Gasquet didn't play a top-level player since Miami. He beat Nishikori, who struggled with moving last week, and might not even be able to do the US Open. Gasquet lost in Bogota against Estrella, to Pospisil last week, and the Canadian gave him a hard time here as well, despite not having the power after Washington. His performance yesterday was not very good either. If Karlovic hadn't do two horrible volleys at 5-2 in tie break, he would not have been here. On the other hand, Murray seems to be confident, well-prepared, and motivated. As bad as might sound, an early knock-out from Wimbledon might have done him good, giving him more time for practice. Murray is getting better, while Gasquet seem to struggle. He said the sun was a problem, but the weather is the States is only set to get even worse. Maybe the semi final from Washington last week is the cause of his current performances, maybe some other problems are what forced him to cancel Atlanta and a few other tournaments, but Murray will be a very tough challenge. Frenchman's current performances just won't do against Murray. Details

Once again, Cilic did another thriller match and in the end finished the job in his first match of this tour. He destroyed Istomin in the first match. The player from Uzbekistan had problems with his shoulder, he started pushing, Cilic started complicating and the drama could begin. Having done one match, Cilic will do better today, against a less dangerous opponent. Jaziri recorded his first Series 1000 tournament. He's definitely not as good as Cilic, and the Croatian should control every aspect of the match. Jaziri's forehand is good, but Marin want to get into Top 10, while Jaziri wants to get into Top 100. They're two different worlds, and the handicap (in theory) could do even with one break per set. Cilic is at least that much better. Details

Three head-to-head matches in less than a year. The last one was a month ago, and each time, the first set was settled in a tie-break. Toronto is fast, a lot of players say so, some even say that he's faster than he used to be (Federer). Either way, I expect bombs on each side, because Tomic has excellent service as well, and not great reactions on opponents service. His record on break points against Karlovic in the last five head-to-head matches is 0/5, with Karlovic winning the only break in Bogota. Details

The book makers keep on underestimating Bautista, and I will keep on taking advantage of it. I have been writing only good things about him since the last season, but have good reasons for it. Besides, he is number 16 in the ATP table, and he started winning the titles. He was preparing for the rest of the season home. His club built a hard court, like the ones used in the North American tournaments. just for him, Lopez lost to Estrella last week, a veteran who managed to win two games in the following match. The left handed Spaniard is having problems with his wrist again. He claims it's no big deal, but that has been a problem for him for a while now. He is not doing very well and I can understand that. He's had a great grass season, then played on the clay, and fatigue is a normal result of that. If it's true that he got engaged, that means he's not even training like he normally does. On the other hand, Bautista is a machine. He hired the former coach of David Ferrer. Bautista deserves respect, he's been doing great throughout the season, and fighting for the Top 15 here. I think no one should doubt him anymore. Details

Istomin's last two defeats obviously weren't a coincidence. Lacko said Istomin wasn't himself after he defeated him, and Young said last week that it's not easy to play against someone with obvious problems. The American even asked the Uzbekistan after defeating him if everything is okay with him, and he only said shortly, fatigue. Even though Istomin defeated Cilic this season, Cilic won the previous four matches they played. Interesting, Marin saved his service in all four, and that can't be coincidence, either. The Croatian had enough time to get ready and rest, and came here ambitious because he doesn't have any points to defend in the following weeks. I don't know if Istomin has problems with some injury or if it really is just fatigue, but he's not himself. Cilic should use that. Details

Delbonis doesn't know how to play on hardcourt, and that won't change anytime soon. This year, he played in these conditions on the ATP level for the first time, and lost convincingly each time. He didn't win one set, nor did he show good games on the last clay tournaments. Besides, he didn't win one Series 1000 tournament this year, nor Grand Slam. His ranking only comes because of the clay performances and Series 250 tournaments, where the competition isn't as hard. Chardy is out of form, but has eight ATP hardcourt wins this season. He came to hardcourt last week and has at least 10 days of intense practice. Considering all that, he should celebrate in two sets, so I believe he'll cover this handicap. This year, the Argentinian got crushed by Rola, Young and Harrison on hardcourt. Then why not Chardy who's in Top 40 and plays the big tournaments well this whole season? Details

Regardless of the two being in the top form of their career, I can't ignore two things. Giraldo is fighting to get into Top 30 and many will say - finally. He's always had the game for it but he lacked consistency. Estrella is a late bloomer at 33 and he got into Top 100 and he's done a lot, but I can't shake the feeling that he was quite lucky with all of that. I don't want to underestimate his fighting spirit, in fact, all credit to him on that, but he's a much weaker player than Giraldo. The Colombian had a good test in form of Becker as the Grman had had five matches on hard court in last 10 days. Estrella's win against Lopez cannot be regarded as too important on account of Lopez's tiring grass season and engagement last week, along with his problems with shoulder and adaptation. Giraldo crushed the veteran player in Rome this season, he got 5 breaks from 6 chances and offered none. The Domininan will play more easily in faster conditions but one break can be enough for this. Giraldo is a class player and motivated to get the status of the seed, while Estrella has been a challenger player since the start of the season. You don't become a consistent ATP player at 33. Details

Not much to say here. Johnson played three sets with Isner without losing his serve or even allowing a break chance. If he wasn't afraid of him, he won't be afraid of Karlović. I expect fast games, which suits this bet. The American had 2 aces per service game in the first round. I expect the usual from Karlović, only he'll have more trouble on the return as Johnson is focused on his serve. He won't lose his control like many players when they are powerless on the return. I expect a tie-break fest here. Details