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Since they both advanced through the qualifications, we have a clear image of their form. Olivetti won three matches and lost only one serve. Of the eight sets he played in the qualifications, only one did not go into tiebreak. For those that do not know, Olivetti has the second fastest recorded serve (257km/h), and it's best to compare him with Isner and Karlovic because of the powerful serve and questionable return performance. Last season he did not play because of a long recovery after a surgery. Barton has more than a decent serve and he proved that in the qualifications. He lost only three serves in three matches, one against Khachanov. So, Barton started two matches with a tiebreak, Olivetti all three of them. Of course, the key to the bet is the Frenchman. In the last five years, his grass-court record is 6-6 at the 12.5 margin, and he went under against players like Ilhan, Lazov and Marx. Ilhan's serve is below-average, while he was a strong favorite against the other two. Details

Barty made a comeback after taking a break with personal reasons while Peng underwent back surgery last year. Her performances this season are poor. Also, she said she is still recovering and that she isn't ready for the WTA level and that she doesn't want to risk a new injury. She played ITFs lately. Late last month, she played two weak home tournaments. She lost to Sabalenka by 6 games and to Lu by 3. The odds were below 1,45 in those matches. She also lost sets at tournaments where the odds were 1,11 (Zhao). Let's take a look at her WTA matches this season. She beat Van Uytvanck but she hasn't played since after asking for medical time out in her match and having to have surgery later on. Peng got lucky. She lost by 11 games to Putintseva, by 8 to Niculescu and 9 to Lucic. This is the first grass court match for her this season. Barty has had 10. I don't think that will be a problem because 8 out of her 10 wins were in straight sets. SHe beat Paszek by 7 games here and she has the game for the grass court. The handicap is set at -4,5. That's high but we have a very specific situation here. Barty has the form (9-1 on grass court since 28.05.) while Peng has no form and no matches on this surface. Her motivation is focus on the Olympics. She didn't do much progress at ITF tournaments at local ITF tournaments and didn't even reach semis in the last two. We have players on two very different trajectories here. I've decided to go with the straight sets win even though the -4,5 handicap makes a good choice as well. Details

Raonic under 20.5 games on clay? I know, seems like a mistake because the Canadian is a server, but that reputation is the reason he is underestimated in these situations. He defeated Tsonga and Belluci in under 20.5 games, even though they are top players. Dolgopolov took him to the over, but the Canadian made three breaks, while the Ukrainian didn't make a single one. Now let's put Cecchinato into that context. The Italian is a challenger player whose ATP level record is 2-16. Both wins from Bucharest. A flash that did not last long. Delbonis limited him to four games. OK, the Argentinian is a proven clay court player, but only six games against Sijsling is a confirmation of his limits. Let's go further back. Giraldo limited him to four games, but that was the Argentinian's first match after a long break. And we have their head-to-head from Monte Carlo, which finished in the 21st game. That is, for me, another proof that I can expect a convincing win here. That was Raonic's first clay court match of the season and he played bad throughout the tournament. I have no doubt he will save his serve here. He does that against proven ATP players, so I don't see how a challenger player can jeopardize him. As far as the return is concerned, he had 2/6 break points in Monte Carlo, where he did not play well. I expect him to be better at return here and I expect the bet will pass routinely. Details

Gasquet struggled against Pouille in Monte Carlo and not surprisingly, pulled out of Barcelona. He didn't go to Estoril to defend the title since it didn't fit into his plans. According to the French media, he took a break because the doctors advised him so. I think he's ready now. If so, he is better than Carballes by at lest 6-7 games, regardless of the fact he didn't play since Monte Carlo. Carballes reached main draw through qualifiers here but Estrella had a 7-5, 5-2 lead. He managed to beat the Spaniard on account of fierceness and went on to beat Haase. Two of them are outside of Top 60. Vesely beat Baena by 7 games before this week, Montanes beat him by 6 games. Baena lost the last three clay court challengers as a favorite. He has 4 ATP wins this season, three as a favorite. He stunned Bellucci, who struggled with cramping. Beana got limited to three games against Busta the day later. All of that is realistic since Baena ha no weapons to threaten someone like Gasquet. Cuevas beat him by 4 games, Garcia-Lopez by 8 and Ramos by 8. The Frenchman is better than them all. Gasquet covered this -4,5 in 7 out of 8 matches last season and this season on clay court. He didn't cover it only against Garcia-Lopez. This can go even with one break by set but I expect a convincing win. Not only because Baena was never Top 100 but also because he is limited. Gasquet will take advantage of that. This would be a 10/10 bet if I was 100 percent sure that Gasquet is 100 fit. On the other hand, I would go with the game higher handicap at 2,20 with a big stake too. Details

Melzer won three challengers in the first two months, played the Davis Cup, and deserved the break he took. He's proven on clay, and almost in the Top 100. He's got 22-4 in challengers this season, and he played a final last week. He showed consistency with each week at the beginning of the year, so no surprise him starting this with two wins. The odds often underestimate him. Today especially. Donaldson is good, but he doesn't really stand out in these conditions. He played three clay tournaments this season - he lost to Kicker twice, an Argentinian who got beaten by Melzer in straight sets at the beginning of the year. Laaksonen took him to the third set, Andreozzi had him on the ropes in the second round here, leading 6-1 5-4, but then things got turned around. He lost to Arguello and Fratangelo on clay last year. Pouille left him with five games, as did Delbonis, and Kudla six. There were some big wins, though, like Stepanek, but Stepanek was just back from a surgery and a long break. He's beaten Elias who was great but out of form, so it was an even match all in all. I think that Melzer is much more of a favorite than the odds would suggest. I went for the handicap because that's what numbers are pointing me to. Donaldson's got eight clay defeats in this and last year, and he lost this handicap every time. It was under six points difference only once. On the other hand, since the handicap is -3 here, Melzer didn't cover it only once in his last ten clay wins. Against Monteiro who's beaten Tsonga and Almagro this year, and he matched Cuevas. He's got 70-10-16 covering -3 in the last five years (the middle number is void). Considering his form, the court, the numbers, everything shows that Melzer will easily win this, and convincingly enough to cover this handicap. Details

Kamke is still outside the Top 200, but he should take a bigger leap soon. I have been following him over the last months and I waiting for him to gain some momentum. He is still an ATP level player, and the draw opened up for him because top two seeds were eliminated. He did slip up against Mekic last week, but that was his only slip up in 2016. Besides, Mekic caused three back-to-back upsets, and won a set against Mathieu. On the other side, Kamke defeated Struff last week, Lamasine and Olivetti here without losing his serve. This is his third quarter-final in three challengers in 2016. Nedovyesov is far from his best performance and his form has been dropping for a while. He was in the Top 100 only seven months ago, and now he is outside the Top 230. The handicap is set at -3.5 here, Kamke's record this and last season is 25-2 in covering this handicap with wins. That record is 9-1 indoor. Nedovyesov has not covered +3.5 in his last three defeats, all indoor. Fucsovic defeated him by 5 games, Donskoy by 4 and Ymer by 7. None of those players are servers, and neither is Kamke. With that, Nedovyesov has not ben great here either, he barely defeated a lucky loser in the second round. Vatutin only has four challenger wins in his career, and the Russian had 16 break-points against the Kazakh. That tells us enough about his serve right now. Everything points to the fact that Kamke will win here by at least a break per set. Details

This season Kulda doesn't have a Top 50 win. He lost seven games to Del Potro, Dimitrov, Kukushkin and Thiem. Kohlschreiber can fit into that group too. Even though he's not a routiner, the numbers clearly suggest for -4. The German this and last season has covered three times and has one void on ATP level of hardcourt wins. He covered them against Coric, Ilhan and Smyczek. The last one he beat with eight games of difference, exactly here, which is good comparison. Kudla, in hardcourt ATP losses, at +4 has covered only once in 10 atches. He covered it only against Rola, but at the time he was the favorite (@1.5). Here he beat Istomin whose record this season is 0-7. Even he did a series of six won games in a row. Simply put, nothing suggest that Kudla should resist more this season. He took Kukushkin and Dimitrov into overtime, and still lost with seven games of difference. That's why I like this so much. Even if he complicates things, the German should win one set convincingly, and that means he'll pass. In the last five years, on ATP losses on hardcourt, Kudla only twice covered +4. In 17 matches (he did the void twice), and he was defeated by far weaker players than the German is. Details

Short and sweet. Monteiro used what was offered to him. Tsonga served badly, had some problems with his wrist, and his footwork was bad as well. The French said later that he lacked energy, but he didn't have to talk much about that. It was all evident. Congrats to Monteiru. He did not get scared, he used his left hand smartly, looked for the opponents backhand, and often came forward. All of that won't look nearly as good today because Cuevas won't allow it. The Uruguayan limited Bagnis in the first round at two games without giving a break point. A player who dominates challengers at this continent. Bagnis has 4-1 against Monteiro, he defeated him this season as well. Just for comparison, Cuevas won a set against Ferrer 6-1 last week, defeated Giraldo and Ramos in this handicap. He is a player who can save his serve, and I am convinced he will recognize the chance. Experienced player has a chance to reach ATP quarter-final through two challenger players. I don't see why he wouldn't be convincing here as well. The Brazilian admitted that himself. You cannot live on one win, and at the end of last year, he was always playing challenger qualifications. Cuevas' record in clay wins is 37-38 in covering the -5.5 handicap. Of that, 11 times it was by exactly five, which is covered here with void. Last year, he covered this handicap against players like Lorenzi, Dimitrov adn Delbonis, all players who would also be big favorites here. Details

Olivetti missed last season because of an injury. We haven't seen him in a long time, but there are no changes. He is still a server with predictable performance. He has been playing indoor since the start of the season, and he earned 10 wins at the futures. He had to play the qualifications, against much weaker players. There were some convincing wins, but not over 1.20 odds. In such matches he has 5-0 in favor of over at this margin. Yesterday he stayed in the under (21). It is rare for him to take two breaks in one set. In the second set he played a tiebreak with 24 points. Kolar is an ITF level player, but he recorded four back-to-back wins here, three of which were surprises. He defeated Berrer yesterday, so his confidence must be high. All four of his matches here went into the third set. Favored Olivetti has 18-6 in favor of over in indoor wins in the last 5 years. Details

Lorenzi is after the best ranking of his carrier. He already has 14 wins this season. Not only has he went on dominating at challengers and beating weaker players at this level, he also reached ATP semifinal and quarterfinal at the last two ATP tournaments. Ceccinato has only two wins from qualifiers this season because he's forcing the level he doesn't belong to. He managed to make it into Top 100 through challengers but he's 0-11 at ATP level. HE has convincing defeats from hard court early in the season and last week to Monaco. That was Cecchi's first match of the season and Cecchi ended up winning only 4 games. The difference in form is great here. Lorenzi has 14 wins this season, straight ATP QFs, while Cecchi is 0-11 at ATP level with only two wins this season. Tahat definitely has an effect on the confidence. Lorenzi is the favorite here. He covered the -3,5 handicap 110 times (didn't cover it in 28 matches). Ceccinato covered the +3,5 handicap only four times this season (4-18). He covered this handicap in the defeat to Ignatik but that defeat was a surprise in itself. There is also the h2h record. Lorenzi won at the domestic challenger four years ago. He dropped only three games in that match. He's doing his best at the moment while Cecci got lost by forcing the ATP level. Lorenzi made a carrier through matches like this one. His compatriot will record another bad defeat this season. Details

We more often encounter the term match up in basketball and it clearly means that someone suits someone else, regardless of form, circumstances. In this case we have a clear tennis match up. It is well known that Monaco and Nadal are good friends and they never hid that, but on the court it is a one-way street from start to finish. If we don't count in the forfeit, Rafa's record against Monaco is 6-0. At Roland Garros he limited him to two (!!) games four years ago, to four (!!) in Davis Cup. These are all best-of-five matches. The domination is obvious in the best-of-three matches as well. 10, 8, 11 and last year 7 games lead by Rafa. In the finale, after Monaco defeated Almagro, Cuevas and Mayer. We can say that he was tired, but that has no relevance because he was confident. Strength was never the Argentinian's problem. It's all clear here. Monaco plays similar tennis, but he is much weaker. Most importantly, Rafa dominates him mentally. And while Nadal may not be himself, but we should look back a bit. Last year he claimed he started playing his tennis in Monte Carlo. He wasn't happy here and he won three out of four matches. Monaco has a much better problem. He played only one match since Kitzbuhel, a win over a challenger player. He was never confident against Nadal, and I doubt he will be today. He lost convincingly every time. Details

Nishikori won Memphis the last three seasons and covered the handicap only once in the last two. He never covered it in the first round in any of the three years. He played 22 games against Marchenko, 20 against Becker and 28 against Harrison. The Amrican went on to complicated their match in Indian Wells only a month later. He struggles with small matches but always does well against better opponents. Here are the matches he played with Top 30 opponents in 2013 (best-of-three sets). There are only no matches against Americans. The opponents' ranking is in brackets. Harrison – Nishikori(5) 4-6 4-6 Harrison – Ferrer(9) 6-4 0-6 0-6 Harrison – Karlović(23) 4-6 7-6 7-6 Harrison – Dimitrov(10) 7-5 4-6 6-0 Harrison – Nishikori (5) 6-3 3-6 4-6 Harrison – Fognini(14) 7-5 1-6 4-6 Harrison – Čilić(29) 3-6 4-6 Harrison – Ferrer(4) 6-7 6-3 4-6 Harrison – Del Potro(7) 1-6 5-7 Harrison – Anderson(21) 3-6 6-7 Harrison – Seppi(26) 6-3 5-7 3-6 Harrison – Nadal(5) 6-7 2-6 . He was trashed only by Ferrer but still won a set in both games. The one in Acapulco was Harrison's 6th straight match. I expect him to do well here since these are his favorite matches. Details

Bergamo has been one of the tournaments with fastest conditions the past few years. The qualifiers were full of players who are not for this level or these conditions but we still say 260 aces in the first round only. Of course, the results of those matches aren't really important due to the massive difference in quality between players but the first serve records prove the conditions are fast. Kravchuk knows how fast it is here. He played four sets here last season, three of which finished with tie breaks. There were a total of les than 10 beaks points and one break in the two matches. The year before he played two matches in two sets, three of which finished in tie breaks. We can expect about 15 aces and 85 percent of first serve points from the Russian again. Chiudenelli opened the season well and got back to top 200 but he mostly went over this margin. He recorded unders only twice in the last 10 matches. The only head-to-head went over this margin too. Details

I first thought about a counter-handicap, which can often be useful indoors, but there shouldn't be any beating around the bush with Gulbis. He is such player. For the majority of the season it will be worth betting against him when he is the favorite, but there will always be value in these kind of matches and a good bet. Especially today. Gasquet planned to play Doha, then he withdrew. Then he planned to play at Australian Open and he withdrew. I know he wouldn't withdraw this week. Not only because he is the title defender, but because of his coach who is the director of the tournament. Frenchman's statements are ful of doubt. He has been having back problems since last year, and he was in therapy until two weeks ago. This week is a test for him, and on the other side he has fired-up Gulbis. He played a decent match yesterday. Ok, his opponent helped him, but it is obvious he is playing well. More importantly, these are the matches he loves the most. He will play boom-boom tennis, he said he expects this week to be a turning point so I believe he will be focused. He was yesterday. Even if the circumstances weren't as such, the odds on Gulbis in these conditions is a must-take. Gulbis won one of three matches, but he defeated the French in similar conditions two years ago. In these circumstances, with Gasquet's questionable health, in the first match of the season and very optimistic Gulbis, this becomes a bet for a higher stake. Details

Fognini is totally unpredictable and Muller managed to force him into 4 straight tie-breaks at AO. He is great at winning service games but not so good at return, especially early in the matches. He opened half of the 8 matches of this season with a tiebreak. He has not played any tiebreaks only in the Coric match. Coric played Chennai final just before that. Muller played 11 indoor matches last season, 6 of which started with a tiebreak. Jaziri isn't predictable but just like Fognini, the opponents get sucked into Muller's rhythm because they have no choice. But, there's enough arguments for Jaziri alone here. He played 12 matches indoors last season (retirements not included) and opened half of them with a tiebreak. He played a tiebreak against Sijsling and Dodig, who are good in these conditions. He had two defeats in two matches this season but he also has two long first sets. I don't find that to be extremely important but it doesn't hurt to mention it. In any case, the odds are worth the stake here on something I cannot miss out on. Details

De Schepper advanced through qualifications here without playing a tiebreak, but he did as expected at his serve. He won 22 out of 23 service games. He will have a more difficult job at the return here, because Basilashvili knows how to play against servers. In the context of our bet, that means in the beginning focusing on saving his serve and waiting for a possible chance. Last year he played that way twice against Lopez, every time the set went into tiebreak. He also played two matches against Karlovic last year, first sets of both went into tiebreak. The fact that De Schepper defeated Coppejans is irrelevant for this context. The Belgian does not play tennis based on saving his serve. Also, De Schepper played 28 indoor matches last season. 10 of them went into tiebreak of the first set. Basilashvili is playing his first indoor match of the season. He probably knows what is waiting for him and he will have to focus on his serve. He has shown that he can do that against servers and that is why this match is a good chance. Details

Herbert showed his old self against Andujar. He shot 17 aces and had 60 winners. He looks impressive, but he also had 70 unforced errors, 10 doubles. He played four sets, three tight ones, and Andujar ended up with four points more. Herbert's game is too risky. He shots a winner, then the net twice, and round and round like that. That he can do when playing the doubles, but that can crush him in the singles. Let's take a look at his four Grand Slam wins (one qualifier, but in three sets). The lowest he had was 41 games. Andujar gave him a hard time here, and we know he loves clay best. He played five sets against Chung at Wimbledon, but Chung was collecting games in the preparation matches, and said grass is his least favorite court. Even Cervantes took him to the fifth set on the grass, Mecir to the fourth. Grass should suit him because of his aggressive style and because he often approaches the net. Paire had 70 unforced errors against Rubin, the same as Herbert against Andujar, but Paire didn't win a single set. We could say the French threw it all out, played badly, but the young American won all three tie-breaks. Against a seed player. For his first Grand Slam win. He wasn't panicking. Herbert talked about it against Andujar. Even though Rubin isn't a typical American, his head is tough, and that's important here because Herbert will definitely give him a chance. That's the tennis he plays. He only played one match in straight sets out of four this season, and even then, there were 23 games. There'll be a big fight here, both mentally and physically, and Rubin is the one underestimated here. And Herbert is far from a routine player. Details

There are special circumstances here, but that goes for lots of matches in the Hopman Cup. Even though Murray left De Schepper with four games in the first game, he already had problems. The French came as a reserve in the last minute, and played awfully. Besides, Zverev left him with four games, too. Then Murray lost to Kyrgios in straight sets, again struggling with physical problems. That right leg seems okay occasionally, and occasionally Murray grabs it, as well as his back. That's what kind of a player he is. I'm not saying it's serious, he wouldn't be playing if it was, but it does influence his game. Now the most important thing, Zverev's score for +5.5 handicap in the last five years is 109-20. Lots of those were challenger matches, but last year his score was 58-6 (25-5 at the ATP level) for covering it. That's even more important for a young player. He didn't cover it only once in the last 40 matches. At the same time, Murray's got 19-40 covering -5.5 handicap. He covered Berdych indoors, beat Dolgopolov and Anderson at the American hardcourt, played two tie-breaks with Čilić. That's all from the second half of the last season. So, Zverev didn't cover +5.5 only once in the last 40 duels (Baghdatis on the grass). Add to all of this that Murray is not on his 100%, then this bet is definitely worth this stake. Details