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The odds at Bolelli do not hold water. They're too low because Brown and him are somewhat similar in style - both take a lot of risk, both play aggressively and do not hold back. The Italian played Bucharest last round in slow conditions and is now to play at an altitude of 500m. To be clear, Brown is having massive ups and down, as his qualifying matches here proved, but he was never doing well when being the favorite. That is why he has wins over Karlovic and Wawrinka here. Either way, I think this will finish in games over. The German played three tie-breaks in 4 sets here last year. His game forced third sets against Wawrinka, Stepanek, Baghdatis. He is brilliant at times and then horrible the very next moment. Regardless of that, beating him convincingly is very difficult and he can get a set against pretty much anyone. Bolleli doesn't have what it takes to do well against the opponent's serve and I would not be surprised if this ends in three sets. The German has 8 overs in the last 10 matches at this margin. In Casablanca, he forced Klizan, who went on to win the title, into a third set tie-break. Details

I had Melzer yesterday but I have to say Ledovskikh could have won that match. He played 9 sets in qualifying rounds and lost her service game only 4 times. I though the Austrian would do better against opponents's service but he was successful either. Ledovskikh fired 14 aces and won 85% of first serve points. He lost his service game only once, which is not a coincidence. He clearly uses the higher altitured successfully. He has three matches and three overs this year. Granted, he played against good players in each of those, but the Ukrainian was never very convincing on clay court. He has only three wins last season, with someone like Ciorcila taking a set against him. The Ukrainian mostly records overs (8-2 at this margin in the last 10 matches) and I cannot overlook Russia's player's numbers from qualifying matches. He fired 40 aces and won over 81% of first service points on average in three matches. He deserved a new chance as a lucky loser and I believe Stakhovsky will have problems with him. Details

Dustov earned the Top 100 on indoor challenges by the end of the last and the start of this year. In such conditions he is a serious player, but on a challenger level. After the last such tournament he played only two matches. He lost both of them on the American tour and then he took a break, so he played the last match almost one and a half month ago. Considering that he's here last with the ranking and still made it into the main roster, after numerous cancellations, I doubt he is ready for this match. Stepanek is a comeback. He played his first match in Sarasota and lost. That's why I'm pleased he did the qualifications here. He was struggling at the beginning, but he did the last round as a routine. He has three matches behind him and he's in the rhythm. He's a smart player and he should use the chance today. Dustov has no rhythm, no matches, especially not on clay, and his strongest part of the game is his serve and the first ball after it. That's where the Czech is very dangerous as a top doubles player, and in that segment he should outsmart the Uzbekistani who got his chance thanks to a series of events. Stepanek earned his chance. The difference in quality is huge, everything is on the side of the Czech, so this should cover the handicap. Details

Nadal has been looking for pretexts ahead of every tournament this season. He started sounding like someone who is considered to be the best clay court player ever only last week. Yes, he struggled with Isner, missed to get the service game for the match against Ferrer and then lost a set. His game against Djokovic was progress as well. For the first time this season ahead of coming to Barcelona, Nadal seemed optimistic, which is extremely important for him because his crisis was the result of lack of confidence. That is getting better now, and I'm also happy with what I saw against Almagro. That was the old Nadal there. The match went on for 100 minutes while Almagro won only one more game after 3-3 in the first set. I know this intro was long but it was necessary to explain that Nadal from the first part of the season (South America) has nothing to do with Nadal here. He played extremely badly there, you only need to take a look at his results. Those were the weeks in which Nadal was not happy even after winning. If you saw him back then and in the last 10 days, you know what I'm talking about. I'm sure that Fognini from Rio would be limited to one a few games today despite winning back then. Fognini is now not as good as back then, he beat only Janowicz after that tournament and the Pole was injured. The Italian opened with a win over the young Rublev but the Russian had 6-3, 2-0 lead at one point. Fognini won only a thrid of his second match points in the first two sets but luckily for him, Rublev couldn't physically handle two tough matches in only two days. I would like to take a look back at some other Nadal-Fognini matches. The Italian got a set in Beijing two years ago but it's well known that Nadal declines physically after US Open. The match at Roland Garross was close but I don't think Fognini can do better than that. He was really impressive but still couldn't get a set. To sum up, Nadal is getting better and has won 8 titles here. As bad as he might have been in the last months, he is always good here and is against this year. Fognini, on the other hand, after the win over Nadal has 2-6 record. He lost a set to young Rublev yesterday and won only a third of his second serve points in the first two sets. He's in decline while Nadal started making progress in Monte Carlo and is now at his best this season. Details

I often had this bet even when Nadal played much better, with more confidence, when the numbers weren't in our favour this much. This season Rafa has a 7-2 ratio on clay, but he went over 9 games in the first set eight times. Not against Novak, which is a section in its own right, against Fognini, who doesn't play on a template, and Delbonis. That is why this bet passed against players like Arguello, Carreno Busta and Berlocq. They can't win points with their serve as well as Almagro can. This bet passed seven times in their last seven head-to-head matches. Only one match of those was on the hard surface. They met in Barcelona two times and the first set of both matches finished with the tie breaker. The surface here is pretty fast and service is an advantage, but that is not the only reason for this bet. Almagro defeated Nadal here last year, and he is now even more confident. Rafa is too careful, he stands far behind the baseline, and his passing shots are not as perfect as they used to be. I repeat, I regularly played this bet in the previous years when Nadal was a class of his own, when he was demolishing others. Nadal can rearly demolish anyone this year, and tradition says that the chances for that are even smaller against Almagro. With all this, there is a good chance that Almagro will be serving first because Rafa often picks the return after the coin toss. That is why my additional recommendation is to wait for the live-betting. Details

Ferrer was bad here in the last two years, he lost his first games against Tursunov and Gabashvili. With that, he has a 7-1 ratio on clay this year, but he won under 17 games only once (I am not counting the forfeit against Estrella). These numbers are not in favor of this pick, if we are to look for some bad sides. Everything else, far more important in my opinion, is on the side of the bet and convincigly so. Ferrer won his last five matches against Montanes and every time his countryman won games. In the 11 sets he once won three games, and two or less in the other matches. In their last match at Roland Garros two years ago, he won only three break points in three sets. This is more than domination. Besides, they played here five years ago. Montanes had the best ranking of his career then, he was on the verge of entering the Top 20, and he took only two games. He is out of the Top 100 now, at the end of his career. I still don't understand how Berankis gambled away the win against him in the first round. He won the first set by losing only one game, and even then Montanes had to save a break point. After that the Lithuanian missed same chances, and then failed at the service to stay in the set. He also missed 5-3 in the third set. Realistically, Berankis was supposed to win in this limit as well, and he plays on clay only when he has to. Ferrer learned his lessons in the last two years here and I believe he will approach this match very carefully. In the six years before, he at least reached the semi-final. Montanes couldn't compete with him even in his best days. His game style suits Ferrer, and the difference between them is bigger than ever. If he won 16 games in the previous 11 matches they played, what is ahead of him now? Details

Kyrgios was supposed to return already last week in Monte Carlo, but he postponed his return. His leg needed more rest. The Australian is constantly struggling with injuries, but he is incredibly strong mentally. Even though he hasn't played many matches, he is capable of defeating anyone. The problem are his returns. He rushes too much in this part of the game, but he is untouchable on his serve even for the far stronger players. This bet is good because the Australian is predictable. At Indian Wells he served for the win against Dimitrov, a Top 10 player, and before that he reached the over on this margin against Kudla. He defeated Seppi and Karlovic at the Australian Open, and he played in five sets against underdog Delbonis. He has 13 extended sets in eight of this year's matches. Of course, Barcelona is on clay, but very fast clay. Ymer surprised De Bakker and he could have won that match in two sets. He recently moved to Barcelona, so he is well acquainted with the conditions. He probably also knows the Australian because there is only one year age difference between them. This is a very good bet for me because Kyrgios had too long injury lay-off to dominate, and he is serving too good to give his opponent too many chances. Besides, he is a classical 'over player'. If we don't count the matches on three sets, even though they are also in favour of this bet, he went over this margin six consecutive times in his first matches on tournaments. Details

I really, really appreciate Hingis. Her smart game can make her competitive until she's 40. She already had one successful comeback, and she only ended it because of the "white powder" affair. She started playing doubles and became one of the best in the world. Besides, she won the last three tournaments with Mirza. She had two problems against Aga. Her smart tennis didn't do so well because Aga is a milder version of her, today when the hitters rule, and she's also younger. While she had strength, the Swiss matched her, but then sank in the second set. Now she'll face the younger Radwanska who can't be compared to her sister. She doesn't have Aga's strength, or her variations, especially not the defensive. Hingis does all her moves better, and I think she'll give her a lesson. I've decided for the first set because that's the best bet in these circumstances. I can't ignore the years and I don't know how she'll react in a longer match. That's why I'm convinced in her winning the first set. Hingis is a phenomena, she's enjoying her new role, and Ula is limited. If anyone can prove it on the court, it's the clever Swiss. Details

Even though this is a WTA tournament, a part of the lot reminds us of the ITF level. Svitolina is the only Top 50 player in Bogota. Puig saw her chance. She's the second seed, and came to Bogota ten days early. That's crucial because they're playing at 2500 m altitude, and adjustment is the most important. Puig has the Top 30 potential, no doubt about it, and she came here with a plan. She clearly stated she's aiming for the title before the tournament. She's got a special motive because she's the best ranked player from the South America here, and she justified her words in the first lot. She played clever given the conditions here. Controlled aggressiveness and a positive attitude.I have to say I'm sold on that. Gibbs is a good lot. Puig had lots of tight defeats lately. She beat Gibbs in those last few tournaments. The difference was five games in the end, she won four games in a row at the end of the first set, and turned 4-1 around in the second. So, she had to struggle to get through, and she covered the handicap. Her last year's win in Mexico was cleaner, though. Gibbs had four defeats in a row before this tournament, and she lost convincingly. She should have been better against Zhang because Zhang lost after leading 5-1 in the second set. Gibbs beat Rodionova here, and that was Rodionova's first match in the main lot this entire season. I think everything's clear here. We have a bet on a better player who came her with ambitions. She had special preparation in Bogota, and left a great impression in the first round. It'll only boost her self-confidence more, and she covered this handicap against Gibbs both times, one of which recently in a match where she had to turn both sets around to win. Details

Confidence. That is what Nadal is constantly looking for. His legs and forehand are not the problem - approach that is not the same due to fragile confidence is. If there is a place where he can feel like the top player, that's Monte Carlo and Paris. He has 8 straight titles ehre and 50 wins. Granted, he lost the last two matches but to Ferrer and Djokovic, which is far more acceptable than losing to Fognini and Verdasco, which happened to him this year. The point is, he has every reason to feel a victor here. He is now set to face Pouille, who has potential but his style should suit Naddal greatly. Pouille was indoors last Saturday and beat Thiem here. Interestingly, his only ATP wins on clay are against Thiem. It was a match ridden with mistakes as half of the 20 games ended as breaks. Poullie was tougher and managed to win the end. I don't see anything in his game that could work against Nadal at this point. If Pouille had rhythm on clay, things wold be different. There will probably be some close games, Pouille might fire some good winner but the once Nadal finds rhythm, he will finish things easily here. In 11 Monte Carlo tournaments, Nadal didn't stay on this margin only 12 in the first matches. That was against Nieminen and Clement nine years ago. Pouille has only 5 ATP matches on clay in his carrier. Details

We had a chance to get to know the young Maia better in Rio where she reached QFs and was supposed to beat Errani. She had three match points but the veteran somehow made it through. She was surprised by Maia's serving as well. It is therefore no surprise that she got through into main draw here, taking advantage of the high altitude. Herazo got a wildcard, she would not be here otherwise. She's not in Top 1100, never making it past second round at ITF tournaments. She won only 4 games against Mertens last week in similar conditions. I don't think much has changed. For comparison's sake, Maia played the Colombian whose ranking is almost identical to Herazo's. No only did she limit Herazo to three games but won allowed her only three points at return. Maia should sail through round two a well but she did poorly at break points (3/14). Molinero is Top 300 and much more experienced. We seem to be in for a very convincing win. Details

This tournament is only beginning for these two. Krajicek lost his serve only twice in the first three matches. He's safe on his way to Top 100, and he already proved himself at the ATP level. I played bets like these, even when he faced players better than Falla. On the other hand, the Columbian finally woke up. He played well in Miami and a semifinal here. He showed weakness against Lapentti, but his win was never in any real danger. Considering the court speed, both being in a good form, and Krajicek's predictability, I think we'll see over games here. The American is convincing against the weaker players, but plays intense matches against better players. Details

Considering a few unusual results and a long rain that kept postponing the matches yesterday, it turned out these conditions suit the servers again. Three of them got to the semifinals. Andersson was supposed to beat Chardy in two sets. He lost his serve for the first time in the entire match at the match-serve. Sock's been really impressive. After great performances on the Series 1000 tournaments and doubles finals, he continued improving his game here. A combination of forehands and serves works like a Swiss watch. That's why he didn't lose his serve to Bautista and Giraldo who are much better return players than Andersson. On the other hand, Anderson's serve seems fantastic, too. These conditions are ideal for him. They never played an official match, but Sock's practicing with Isner a lot, and Isner is a lot like Anderson. If we can draw parallels there, in five matches on this margin, Sock's got four overs. Either way, like the American said, not many chances on return will happen here. Details

Even though Isner started later than other in Houston, he is not the kind of a player capable of making a smooth transition. He's had great matches in Indian Wells and Miami, having played what might have been his best match ever against Nishikori. He was a tough opponent for Djokovic both times but everything starts over now. He won Houston once and reached the final before it. He was under this margin only once in his 7 matches here (the first one). It was at 21 games against Zeballos, who forced him into the second set the other time. He didn't allow Smyczek to get any break points, while having 15 such opportunities. He was tough and aggressive, which is what I expect today as well. He knows how to play Isner. Their match in Madrid last season finished with a single break point. Before that, the one in Delray Beach finished with a very long third set tie-break. Everything says the games over will be the outcome here. A margin this low at Isner cannot be missed out on. Especially because he just changed surfaces, which causes players like him trouble with return. His serves are dangerous at an surface, that doesn't change. Details

This is a tournament that has previously been won by Isner and Karlovic...The surface used to be green clay but that changed. it is still very fast though, nothing like any European clay surfaces. Gorth fired 17 aces in the first round and allowed Estrella to have only one break point. He said that the ball bounces higher here than on hardcourt. Estrella won Quito (high altitude) in these conditions and couldn't do anything against the Australian. Groth did nothing against his service either, having converted a single break point. Lopez reached Quito final and lost to Estrella. He played 6 tie-breaks in 4 matches back then. He'll need time for adjustment as well since he was given the first round bye and Groth allows no rhythm. I was surprised with the odds at first set tie break, which is set as if the match was being played in Casablanca. Service games are easier to win here than in Indian Wells and Miami. I expected 3 at the most, which I would have probably played.

The bet is under the '1st Set Correct Score' offer. It's for a 7-6 score of the first set, doesn't matter for whom. Of course, any kind of overs in the first set are a good option. Details

I expected Young to win but serve has once again proved to be great advantage in Houston. Johnson lost it only once against his compatriot, who's been having a great season. I can't say the same for Querrey, but I can say that his serve is good. He won both head-to-head matches, both in straight sets but we saw only one break in one of those. Johnson made progress this season and I expect a close match here. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up a thriller, especially since Querrey plays tough matches as a rule this season against oppoenents with good serve. Details

Soeda should have lost in two sets against Hewitt. The Australian was at 5-2 and the serve in the first and winning serve in the second set, but there was a twist. I no longer see Hewitt as a serious player. He announced the end of his career after Australian Open and he's already thinking about grass. This was his second match in singles after Melbourne. Soeda, with that turnover, reached his first clay win in the last two years. The bigger problem is that he's not playing well, and Chardy hardly waited to return to clay. These are ideal conditions for him. The ball bounces high enough, it's easier for him to move and he can dictate points. He beat Lajovic with four games of difference, and there were oscillations, and Lajovic knows how to play on clay. Against Soeda he should look even better. He said it himself, and I expect the Japanese on challengers because he could drop out of the Top 100. Only for the sake of comparison, with this handicap the Japanese lost to Troicki and Przysiezni indoors this season. Even Bolt beat him with six difference in Indian Wells qualifications. Details

I cannot understand why the odds at Querrey are set like this. What is it about him that deserves the 1.2 at his win? He recorded the last two defeats after being a set and a break ahead. He lost because he's confidence is running low but he says things are not much better in practice sessions either. He tied wins only once this season, having been knocked out in the first round in five out of 7 tournaments. He is not the kind of a player who gets defeated easily, regardless of everything. His opponents is not the player capable of recording easy wins either. Neither prefer the clay surface, the American reached semifinals here last season but Bogomolov and Brown matches finished in overs at this margin. Each of the three head to head matches (last two years) finished in three sets. That's no coincidence, nor is the fact 6 of those nine games ended in tie-breaks.They played less than 10 games only once (6:3). Those were matches on hard court in faster conditions. Their style will not change because they play on clay, especially not with the American who will still base his game on serving and forehand. I think the margin is even two games too low.
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Nishikori never played against Isner, but he has a lot of experience with Raonic and we can draw a line here. He met with the Canadian seven times and four times the first set went into a tie-break. I expect the same with Isner, but I give this bet more chance than with the Canadian. First and foremost because Raonic plays more, he's more dangerous on return. Isner is again in shape. With him it's always the same story. As soon as he ties a couple of wins, he's more dangerous. First on hits after returns. The Japanese won't get a lot of space there. Nishikori was brilliant in the first three matches. He lost only 10 games, but he had opponents which he outplayed. Here that won't be the case, so points with six or more exchanges will be rare. On the other hand, the high self confidence on the serve is great for this bet. I doubt the American will do anything on the return. To conclude, Isner will dominate with his serve, and Japanese with his game. It's enough for both to keep the serve until the tie-break, and then the mental part will take over. Details

Isner and Dimitrov have never played an official singles match but that doesn't mean there are any secrets today. Isner said he needs to win his service games and wait for his chances even when meeting a 17-year-old. And he did. Dimitrov knows that losing a set here results in losing a set. I will be comparing him to Federer here because he prefers fast service games, just like the Swiss and that's good for this bet. Less rhythm, shorter games, and through tie-break as soon as possible. Both players should be able to keep their serving up and win their games even though the conditions are slow. Both are getting better, which is particularly important for Isner because I know that he won't be firing Dimitrov's shots back into the net. All the prerequisites or this bet have been met and I think the first set will be like a first round in boxing, in which boxers don't take as much risk. Details