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An information came out this morning that Hyeres' best player, Kyle Spain (16.3 points, 7.5 rebounds) might miss most of the play-offs. If coach Laurent Legname showed anything this season, then it's his playing-it-safe approach. He didn't place any relevance on the National Cup and the Leaders Cup so that his team could be concentrated solely on the championship. It wouldn't surprise me if he saved his main players for the start of the play-off which begins in a week. They can't catch up with Monaco anymore, they're safe in the second spot and there is no need to force the unfit players like important point guard Julien who played for only 20 minutes in their last game. Lille have raised their game under coach Asceric, they have 11-7 since he took over and they won 4 back-to-back games, that is six of their last seven games. Even if Hyeres were complete, they would struggle against defensively very aggressive Lille. I know, many will say that Lille aren't motivated, but they weren't in the last round either and they defeated Roanne who are on a roll (four back-to-back wins) in a away games! And without their top scorer Mels. Details

When it's all taken into consideration, this is an even game for me. Definitely not for this high a handicap. Even more so because the situation demands Sibenik to go after a difference, not Zagreb. I'm not saying that the 'Ants' will try to set up a 4-5 win and that they would stop if they achieve this kind of lead, but I repeat, this is an even match for me. The handicap was probably derived from their previous head-to-head games, in the A1 league, Zagreb defeated Sibenik at home by 17 points, and lost the away game by one, with a great comeback of the orange team, they won by 6 in the playoff at Baldekin. But of all the previous results, I think the current moment is of greatest importance. Sibenik are in great form since they lost the home game against Zagreb. They won in Zabok by 13, evened up in away games against Zadar and Cedevita, won at home against Cibona, and then away against Kvarner... They did struggle against Alkar, but that was because they underestimated the weaker opponent. They will not underestimate Zagreb, they are playing the game of the season today against a team what is not in a good rhythm. They gambled away a great lead against Cibona, lost away game against Kvarner (where Sibenik won) and home game against Zadar, struggled in Zabok. And today they will play without Sarlija, an important player, which doesn't give Sibenik as much chances offensively in the paint, as much as it makes it easier for them to defend it, because Vucic and Rados lack that quality. Details

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Both coaches talk about one thing only ahead of the Game 4 and that is defense. The home coach Corbani said his team went from recording mostly overs to a serious defense in a matter of a month. Ramondino is, on the other hand, furious that his team conceded 74(!) points in Game 3 and demands a better defensive end. I had this tip in the first game as well, bet on this in two other games as well and there's no reason to no go with it officially today too. Everything I said then goes for this game as well - it's a great local derby match and a proper battle on the floor. Also, this game is super important. Not to mention the tradition in head-to-head games - the last seven finished under this margin, including the last game in spite of over 50 being scored in the first quarter. Details

Sibenik's shape is growing, that's obvious. Of course, I'm taking into consideration the fact that that shape growth is due to the opponent's bad game (Cedevita and Cibona played lousily against them), but compared to the start of the Champions League, this Sibenik finally have a continuity of good parties. Coach Sarin pointed out that they would be playing like that from the start if injuries didn't throw them out of the rhythm. Now that's behind them, they've risen and players and confidence-wise, and if you ask me they stand a chance to beat Kvarner. The hosts at first sight have a bigger motive, they're after the fourth place, but let's not fool ourselves. The schedule is such that it probably won't even come to that. Be that as it may, this is an egal match on a single ball. But no way for a handicap like this which is partly a consequence of the head-to-head in Rijeka (+14 for Kvarner), but at the time Sibenik didn't have Vrkic... Details

Biella's coach Corbani said that they are not the same team they were two months ago and they are now more for finishing with 70 than 90 points. The reason for it is clear - Voskuil is gone, their key defense figure. Raymond is the only one left and he will now be back after having to travel to the States to attend the funeral of a family member. We need to see how much that would affect him but at least the long trip has to leave some trace. Monferrato are the second best defense in regular season, having been limiting the opponents to 68.4 per game. They will not back down from that now that the playoffs start. The stakes are high and on top of that, this is a regional derby. These two teams met 5 times in the last 6 seasons to finish at 147, 165 (2011/12), 131, 142 (2013/14) i 148, 140 points (2014/15). I don't expect more than 140 points today, especially because Monferrato didn't play for three weeks and I expect them to turn to defense more and Beilla don't have Voskuil, which makes them much less dangerous. If you think this will go into overtime, the shops offer that bet as well. Details

I bet Oradea against Steaua counderhandicap twice in playoffs QFs and they didn't let me down. Steaua barely won those games, two at home by a total of 3 points. The handicaps went around 6-7. Mures are, I daresay, even a better team than the defending champions Oradea. They knocked out one of the top favorites for the title Cluj in the first round and have made massive progress since coach Prakuraitis took over. I think this will be a close game and given their performances over the past few weeks, I think Mures are even the favorite. Even since the Lithuanian expert took over, they won 10 out of 13 games (9 in the league, one in the Cup) and both defeats in the league happened without their key player Dykes. One of those wins was over Steaua about a month and a half ago. Details

The bookmakers decided to turn a blind eye to the current situation, but I won't do the same. Except for the leading Hyeres and Monaco, Nantes are currently in best form. They are almost better than Monaco, the team that won 8 out of the last 9 games. Nantes have 8 wins in the last 10 rounds. They're in great rhythm, with Monaco being the only team that managed to outsmart them home by two points. They won 3 out of the last 4 on the road (the tough Denain, Fos, and Souffel). Poitiers are anything but convincing this season. They won only 3 out of the last 9 games even though I do have to point out they won 4 out of the last 5 home. But Lille, Charleville, and Denain, and especially Angers are not at Nantes' level at the moment. As I aid the fact Nantes lost the last 7 h2h meeting to Poitiers means very little right now. This is a close match, I even think Nantes are favorites to some extent. Details

Agrigento are one of the best five teams of the second league defensively. Treviso are the best defensive in the third league. I'll admit, the second and the third league are not the same level, but what's important is that the Treviso are defensively oriented. They won't become offensive all of a sudden, and start running. It's the opposite, they'll become even more defensive against a stronger opponent. Like they did against Ferentino in the Cup quarterfinal. Ferentino are stronger than Agrigento offensively, and Treviso limited them to 68 points. The match ended at a bit over 130. Both camps are aware of this match's important, especially for the home team because they're expected to pass. The failure in the first match would push them to the edge of being eliminated. Agrigento played a match similar to this one (it was important for the playoff) against Mantova, about 10 days ago at home. It ended at 133 points, and with a blowout (79-54 win). Details

The bookmakers might be influenced by Monaco's last defeat home but everyone has an occasional bad day. Also, they underestimated the opponents horribly. They will not underestimate Antibes, for at least two reasons. Antibes already beat them home, which was their only home defeat until the last round. Secondly, Monaco lost top spot to Hyeres and it was very clear that their main ambition was to make it into the first division ahead of the season. Top spot will get them automatic promotion and since Hyeres are playing home this round against the desperate Roanne, a new defeat would see Monaco lose the title. Anitbes are in a bad rhythm, having lost three games in a row and I don't see why they should be the favorites today. Monaco have a much better choice of players and better quality, which can limit Antibes's top players to an extent. I will go with counter-handicap, which is a safer option, but a 2 at Monaco is good as well. Details

Given Lille's performances, this is still a few points too high a margin. The first h2h, which was a debut for coach Asceric finished at 136 points in regulation time and at 155 after overtime. It's been almost 3 months since and Asceric completely changed his team's style. Lille have not conceded more than 70 points since February. Their average n the last 7 games is 64.6 points. Nantes don't have as many unders but they are not bad on the defensive end either. They have 5 unders in 10 games, concede 72.4 points in that period of time. They had overs with faster paced teams Le Portel and Saint Quentin, and surprisingly with Hyeres, Monaco, and Evereux. The reason for an over with Hyeres was 83 points conceded, and Monaco and Evreux were overs because of bad defensive end. Since Lille aren't really cut out for 80 points and concede over 70 points once in a blue moon, I think this is a good material for points under. The stake is one unit lower than expected maybe because of a potential close finish. Details

I think this margin is a consequence of head-to-heads this season. In Zagreb at 153, in Zadar at 128, and then in the Cup semi-finals at 158. But, the current situation is such that I don't see Cibona and Zadar going towards 160 points. Let's start with the worse, Zadar. With Florence's leae they lost a lot in the offense, and Bosnjak's points are not for wasting. In the back line there's no one who can score a lot of points, a lot of things come down to Ivanov and Sobin in the paint. Cibona also don't have too many offense options and it doesn't look great, so Slaven Rimac (probably because of that) forces the defense. They left Cedevita five days ago at 67 points in regular time, Zabok and Zagreb at 61 and 62. Sibenik at 73. I can't say those teams can't be compared to Zadar because Zagreb beat Zadar, in the middle of Zadar, leaving them at 64 points. In any case less than 154 because the match is also important for playoff positions Cibona today have a chance to take the first place on the table; Zadar could be no. three. Details

I said it a few times that Lille had a turning point during the winter break when coach Neno Asceric took over. They got the defense level up to become the best defense in the league at the moment. In 12 games since Asceric took over, they conceded over 71 points in regulation time only once and had an over at this margin only once in regulation time in 12 games (83 points to Poitiers). Aix play more games with higher number of points but they also improved on the defensive end since the new coach took over. Aix conceded more than 77 points only once and more than 75 only 4 times in 12 games since then. They lost all those games...Aix are in dire need of a win, Lille aren't so desperate but the win today would almost certainly see Lille avoid relegation. I don't think this can go at 150 or more points because it's so important and both teams are so good in defense. Forget the first head-to- head that finished with 167 points. Lille score 100 back then but they no longer play that offense-oriented game anymore. Aix improved defense as well since then. Details

The first thing that comes to mind when I see Denain is tough defense. They are one of top league teams when it comes to that aspect, allowing 71.4 points per game. Hyeres played all kind of games this season but defense is something they focus more and more now that the close race for top spot with Monaco is getting more serious. Their coach Legname is not keen on offense but rather relies on tough and aggressive defense. Hyeres allow 72.6 points per game, which is only a tad more than their opponents Denain. The first h2h fibarely went over 120 and I don't expect high productivity today either becasue of game styles of both teams and the motivation. Denain are in race for one of top 5 spots and the home court advantage in the playoff while Hyeres want direct promotion to top league. Denian have 7 straight unders at this margin in regulation time and almost stayed under with Roanne despite the 5-minute overtime. Hyeres's record isn't as clean (4 out of 8 unders at this margin, with one game at 149 points) but their overs were against fast and efficient teams, Nantes, where the conceded 83 and Monaco (finished at 149). There are too many arguments for an under and I don't want to miss out on it. Details

If the situation was ideal, Jesi are a weaker team than Trapani. But the way things are, Jesi are far from ideal. Their back Santiangeli got injured in the practice this week, and he's one of their main offensive weapons. First they thought he broke his ankle, the Xrays showed he didn't, but it's very strained. It's swollen, and Santiangeli is questionable. The second important offensive link, Elliott, got flu, so he didn't practice for a few days. Whether these two play will be decided just before the match, there's no info so far, but this is how I see it: they won't play because Jesi don't need them to. But, if they are on the court, it's not easy to play with an ankle injury in a sport where there's a lot of sudden change of directions, and you know how you feel when you go down with a flu or a cold. Trapani won the first duel at home, but Jesi had Miller, Maggioli (captain, injured), Santiangeli, and Elliott then. Those four produced about 60 points per match, not even counting their assists. Trapani still have some chance for the playoff, they said they're going to fight till the end, and these odds on them are great, considering the situation. And their form is a bit better, too. Jesi lost seven in a row, and 10 out of the last 11, Trapani have 2-2 in the last four rounds, and before that, they lost two in the overtime. Details

Last year, when Zadar were stronger than this season, they lost in the playoff against Šibenik at Baldekin, by 8. back then Zadar had Lyons and Lawrence, Šutalo, but also a better atmosphere than now. There is no money, the players are doing their best, but it's not easy coming home and being broke. However, setting aside that factor, though it's not an irrelevant one, Zadar will face a full arena and highly motivated opponents. These two cities and teams have no love for each other, and the orange team will play their heart out. Zadar also suit them in terms of roster. With the departure of Bošnjak and Florence, Nazor has a very thin rotation on the perimeter. Segarić, Bašić, Širko and Ramljak are not much of a rotation. Zadar are strong under the rim, with Sobin, Ivanov, Barać amd Kraljević, but Šibenik have Šamadan, Vukičević, Marciuš and Blaće (even Vrkić) who can parry them there. It seems that Šibenik even have better guards, as Junaković, Bašić and Smith score more than Zadar's guards. Overall, I would not be surprised by Šibenik winning, which can be played at 1/10, but the +7.5 sounds great too. Under at 150.5 is not bad at all either, that is at 4-5/10, but I chose the option that Šibenik will not lose by more than 7 points. Details

Although Cedevita are announcing this match as a preparation for Buducnost, I think that this pair, this handicap, deserves a middle stake. Alkar are arriving without a true play (Bilic out), wing Gaurina who is also the second shot after Vitali. They're coming finally without Slavko Modric, their signature man. Three players from the first five, and we have information that the rest good ones are half-baked. Zitka has problems with his knee, Perajica with his back, Modrica with the back... Which means Alkar will stay on Vitalij from the important ones. OK, they have Krstanovic, Boban brothers, Kanaet, Bilandzic and Svalina, but none of them are older than 22. The last two are kids. They have to go through a lot to be able to deal with Cedevita. Repesa will rotate? That only means he will be able to keep a higher pace during the whole game, and Alkar's shorter rotation will hardly be able to keep up with that. Besides, Zganec, Arapovic, Mazalin and the rest will be carriers of the game in Alkar. So much about it that Cedevita's roation will be weaker. As a friend said, anything below 30 is good for Alkar... Milacic is also aware of that so he announced defeat in advance. They're off to lose with the least possible score difference, he said. Last season it was 43, Alkar had Modric and Gaurina, and Repesa also rotated.
Keep in mind, you can find a more favorable margin (24.5). Details

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Anyone who read the preview for this game could have deduced it - play on less points. I'll sum up the important points from the preview of the Evreux -Hyeres duel. This is not a local rivalry, but HTV coach Legname points out their matches are battles, not games. That was the scenario in the first they played, which ended at 141 point. Both teams also have rather good defenses, not the best in the second French league, but not far from it. One can agree that the 72 points per game that they allow opponents are a sign of a very good defense. Both teams did vary a bit in points lately, but this is still a clash of two physically strong teams, both highly motivated for this match. Evreux are chasing a playoff appearance, while Hyeres are looking to stay on top ahead of Monaco. With all this in mind, this margin is a few points too high in my opinion. The stake takes into account the extra aggression mentioned earlier, which could cause more free throws and thus free points. Details